OH OH - Brian Shaffer, 27, Columbus, 1 April 2006 - #4

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Would Brian's photo ID have been useful to anyone, perhaps to stay in or get out of the country, or to get medical certification of some kind?
Wild speculation, imo.
Re post
rbbm.
https://melmagazine.com/a-guy-walks-into-a-bar-53c784e7369b

There might have been a blind spot. Perhaps Brian eluded detection. The craggy building that housed the Ugly Tuna was under construction, and a temporary freight elevator escaped surveillance. Maybe Brian came down the rusty service ladder that traversed the shaft, resting for a few seconds on each rung. Maybe someone waited for him at the bottom, making sure he didn’t slip. Still, security cameras from nearby bars — Sloppy Donkey, Mad Mex, Lucky’s Stout House — would have caught him when he fled the building. Somehow, he evaded surveillance in a city with more closed-circuit television than Cleveland, Cincinnati and Toledo combined. Brian had disappeared in Ohio’s most-watched metropolis, where it’s always 1984.
Derek remembered the surveillance footage, foggy and translucent; it became a visual time capsule, a Pandora’s box. Brian scaled the escalator before turning right; he walked into the bar, into the blank. “He looked like he was having a good time,” says Derek. “Nothing seemed off at all.
He told friends med school was a stopgap, that one day he’d form his own band. Perhaps Saint John or Saint Thomas provided salvation, a refuge from exams and a marriage proposal, from cancer and death. He wouldn’t have needed his passport to get there, just photo ID — his wallet was in his jeans pocket when he disappeared — and the flight from John Glenn Columbus would have taken less than six hours.
Brian’s disappearance is an enduring puzzle. One with few clues. “Usually, with a missing person, there will be signs,” says Lori. “Their vehicle will be found. Or their wallet. Or their cell phone will bring answers. None of that has worked in Brian’s case.“How can a person just disappear, with no trace of what happened to them?
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Thread #3 - OH - OH - Brian Shaffer, 27, Columbus, 1 April 2006 - #3
 

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I'd like to make the point that the only thing plausable I can think of is that something happened to him in the ugly tuna.

Based on the fact that he's not seen leaving on any cc cameras nor inside or outside, and every other person incl bandmembers and staff was accounted for. Construction area was searched with scent/cadaver dogs and emergency exit had a camera which would have turned on and zoomed in if used.

Also the officers in white stood on the platform before entering the ugly tuna to make sure noone wandered of in the area.

The timeframe of the situation in which events occurred is incredibly narrow.

He's seen in the footage at 1.55 am. Between 2.00 and 2.09 am Clint and Meredith look for Brian in the bar and the restrooms , also calling his phone. They leave the escalators at 2.09 am and wait for him breafly outside.

Now basically he vanished in the margins of 5-6 minutes.

In the footage I tend to see an urgency from Brian going back or following the girls he's seen talking to. And the two women seem to have at the least a heated argument. Where did they wander off to? I know they were contacted and acquitted by law enforcement but what did they tell the police, that he only said goodbye to them?

He went back presumably towards the stage area and sticking to the story that he just vanished the only way you could do that was to hide under the stage where the band played. But why? A prank, waiting for someone? Maybe he didnt want to be seen by his friends?

Jumping off the roof from the patio he would have been seen by restaurant patrons below and most likely hurted himself in the condition he was in. Also he wasnt intercepted by any outside cameras which would have been the case.

The construction site entrance and squared area in front of the escalators was as said overlooked by the officers a few feet away and door entrances were also chained up.

I can't see any other explanations. Someone wrote that the bar actually closed at 2.30am and the last order was taken at 2.10.

It´s a real mystery damn it,
 
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I'd like to make the point that the only thing plausable I can think of is that something happened to him in the ugly tuna.

Based on the fact that he's not seen leaving on any cc cameras nor inside or outside, and every other person incl bandmembers and staff was accounted for. Construction area was searched with scent/cadaver dogs and emergency exit had a camera which would have turned on and zoomed in if used.

Also the officers in white stood on the platform before entering the ugly tuna to make sure noone wandered of in the area.

The timeframe of the situation in which events occurred is incredibly narrow.

He's seen in the footage at 1.55 am. Between 2.00 and 2.09 am Clint and Meredith look for Brian in the bar and the restrooms , also calling his phone. They leave the escalators at 2.09 am and wait for him breafly outside.

Now basically he vanished in the margins of 5-6 minutes.

In the footage I tend to see an urgency from Brian going back or following the girls he's seen talking to. And the two women seem to have at the least a heated argument. Where did they wander off to? I know they were contacted and acquitted by law enforcement but what did they tell the police, that he only said goodbye to them?

He went back presumably towards the stage area and sticking to the story that he just vanished the only way you could do that was to hide under the stage where the band played. But why? A prank, waiting for someone? Maybe he didnt want to be seen by his friends?

Jumping off the roof from the patio he would have been seen by restaurant patrons below and most likely hurted himself in the condition he was in. Also he wasnt intercepted by any outside cameras which would have been the case.

The construction site entrance and squared area in front of the escalators was as said overlooked by the officers a few feet away and door entrances were also chained up.

I can't see any other explanations. Someone wrote that the bar actually closed at 2.30am and the last order was taken at 2.10.

It´s a real mystery damn it,
Welcome to Ws OldMozez, quite the enduring mystery indeed, looking forward to the conclusion, whatever it may be!
 
on second thought , you would really have to be desperate to crawl under that stage, for whatever reason...

Stage.jpg


however, here's the emergency exit. Well within reach, even though an alarm would have gone off if it was opened , regulars supposedly said they'd sneak out of there covertly from time to time. Guess you could have hid in there or spent time in there without exiting and not be seen.
However exiting on ground floor would have set off the camera so it implies you go back.

Emerg-exit-bar.jpg


Would have been great to see some footage of opening that door and filming the path down to the exit on the first floor.

Emerg-exit-groundfloor.jpg
 
I agree. I've been reading up on the Joey LaBute case and there are some unsettling similarities.

Not to mention that Joey Labute was murdered just a couple days short of the 10 year Anniversary of Brian's disappearance. I don't necessarily think they're related, but if Labute's murder WAS committed by the same guy who may have killed Brian during a hook up (complete speculation), he may have wanted to celebrate the milestone anniversry with another kill. Although that's totally getting into "Law and Order" plotline conspiracy. Though murders via Grindr are nothing new. Brian would not have used that as it hadn't come out yet, but the general idea is the same.
 
I've made transcripts from parts I consider more interesting of the interview with the lead detective on the case, John Hurst, in his interview the comeback podcast Listen to ComeBack - A True Crime Podcast
I've made exact quotes.
Basically I heard it tonight so there's more to this case than I knew especially concerning the exit possibilities.

Exits from the building, I believe he's talking about a staff/employee exit

”The exit going down the stairs led to a hallway and the construction site, and the hallway leads down to the commercial trash area, the hallway some of it was on camera and the trash area where the dumpster was inside was also on camera”.



”What was the exact construction at the Ugly Tuna, they were putting in..a..I forgot the name of some it was like a hail store and the lower area in behind all the restaurants and the downstair businesses was completely dug up and it was only boarded up by the doorways with chain locks, plywood doors, somebody could have squeezed in or out of these locations”.


The band leaving:
”There’s only one exit from the bar that everybody had to go in and out of, except for the emergency exit. When the band left they left back throught the hallway and they loaded up their equipment out the back door, by where the dumpster was but they had to go down the elevator and down the hallway to do that.

We got them (the band) going, cause the hallway that they had to go out through and ultemately where the dumpster was all that was on camera at that time”.

They don’t believe any foolplay from the bands part.

”The basic indication right now, is somehow he got down into the construction area and most likely got/not exited out of there. But again we don’t have anything that’s on video to support that, it’s just speculation at this time”.

Edit: I struggle to hear if he said got exited out of there or not exited out of there
which is quite critical of what he's trying to say

It would have been great to see a drawing of the Ugly Tuna if someone made it please post it.
 
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I've made transcripts from parts I consider more interesting of the interview with the lead detective on the case, John Hurst, in his interview the comeback podcast Listen to ComeBack - A True Crime Podcast
I've made exact quotes.
Basically I heard it tonight so there's more to this case than I knew especially concerning the exit possibilities.

Exits from the building, I believe he's talking about a staff/employee exit

”The exit going down the stairs led to a hallway and the construction site, and the hallway leads down to the commercial trash area, the hallway some of it was on camera and the trash area where the dumpster was inside was also on camera”.



”What was the exact construction at the Ugly Tuna, they were putting in..a..I forgot the name of some it was like a hail store and the lower area in behind all the restaurants and the downstair businesses was completely dug up and it was only boarded up by the doorways with chain locks, plywood doors, somebody could have squeezed in or out of these locations”.


The band leaving:
”There’s only one exit from the bar that everybody had to go in and out of, except for the emergency exit. When the band left they left back throught the hallway and they loaded up their equipment out the back door, by where the dumpster was but they had to go down the elevator and down the hallway to do that.

We got them (the band) going, cause the hallway that they had to go out through and ultemately where the dumpster was all that was on camera at that time”.

They don’t believe any foolplay from the bands part.

”The basic indication right now, is somehow he got down into the construction area and most likely got/not exited out of there. But again we don’t have anything that’s on video to support that, it’s just speculation at this time”.

Edit: I struggle to hear if he said got exited out of there or not exited out of there
which is quite critical of what he's trying to say

It would have been great to see a drawing of the Ugly Tuna if someone made it please post it.

I've listened to those podcast comments by Hurst many, many times. I'm quite sure he said "most like got exited out of there". Don't know of a drawing of Ugly Tuna, but you can search youtube and watch lots of videos made by former patrons partying at the bar...
 
I've listened to those podcast comments by Hurst many, many times. I'm quite sure he said "most like got exited out of there". Don't know of a drawing of Ugly Tuna, but you can search youtube and watch lots of videos made by former patrons partying at the bar...

sure, it leans towards got but I wouldn't exclude not entirely. But yeah.

I'm not sure but does the sentence put this way mean someone took him out then? He got exited meaning someone for example carrying him out or similarly.

I'd love to see the layout of the place just in 2d. I can't really make out the staff/kitchen areas from the videos I've seen.

They must be on the left side further back?
 
I'm wondering if any1 knows if Brian was recorded and seen on the cctv cameras coming and leaving on the first visit at 9. pm? This would exclude that he didn't leave any other way the first time.
 
I'd like to make the point that the only thing plausable I can think of is that something happened to him in the ugly tuna.

Construction area was searched with scent/cadaver dogs and emergency exit had a camera which would have turned on and zoomed in if used.

Just wondering the possibility/probability of dogs missing his scent if an accident rendered him unconscious, but not yet deceased within the construction zone? This theory reminds me of the heartbreaking case of Kendrick Johnson.

As I'm writing this, however, I seem to recall that Brian's scent was traced to a fast food establishment nearby ... am I crossing stories here?
 
...As I'm writing this, however, I seem to recall that Brian's scent was traced to a fast food establishment nearby ... am I crossing stories here?
It is merely presumed that as dogs headed toward burger joint, they may have been tracing Brian's scent. Needless to say, no way of knowing what the dogs were doing or why.
 
Just wondering the possibility/probability of dogs missing his scent if an accident rendered him unconscious, but not yet deceased within the construction zone? This theory reminds me of the heartbreaking case of Kendrick Johnson.

As I'm writing this, however, I seem to recall that Brian's scent was traced to a fast food establishment nearby ... am I crossing stories here?

Hurst said that a scent was tracked coming out of the construction area and past a Wendy's but that he was not sure it was Brian's scent.
 
So I saw Clint in a clip on giving an interview with Rita Cosby msnbc, but far from the whole thing so I found the transcripts of that interview.
John Hurst's is there too. This was on April 10th.
Some interesting facts about Brians behaviour....

COSBY: And that‘s the brother of the medical student who vanished without a trace leaving no clue
as to what happened to him. It‘s a story that “Live and Direct” has been following as you know. 27-
year old Brian Shaffer, a med student at Ohio State University disappeared from a bar while he was
out with his friends. “Live and Direct” went back to the bar in Columbus, Ohio where Brian was last
seen. And in this first TV interview, Brian‘s friend explains what happened the night he vanished.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

CLINT FLORENCE, BRIAN SHAFFER‘S FRIEND: It was around 9:15, 9:30, I drove over to his
apartment (INAUDIBLE) his father was and he was having a beer. And then came up to High Street
(INAUDIBLE) I got around here about 9:30, started having drinks with the usual. Me and Brian always
went out. There‘s nothing new. Sat down, opened a tab. And then, you know had three, four, five
shots of liquor. He talked to his girlfriend about 10:30, decided we should leave. We‘re going to go,
still in the bar. And at the time I was kind of hazy because I was drinking, too. So, I would say we got
to the shore north around 11:45, 12:00. We stayed long enough at shore north to get a shot which
was probably 15 minutes and then Brothers. I would say we stayed there 30 minutes at the next.
And then walked to the Red Star and got picked up within the next half hour, the security cameras
picking us straight up, walking the bar. And we see some students of mine. We sat down next to
them. It was Meredith to my right, then me, and then the two girls and then Brian was doing his
usual thing. And he was talking to those two girls. And I go, yeah, Brian stick around. He has a
tendency to walk away. And probably 10 minutes later, 15 minutes later, I turned to say, Meredith
let‘s go, it was closing time, 2:10, 2:00 and Brian was nowhere to be seen.

COSBY: And let‘s now bring in the lead investigator in this search, Sergeant John Hurst from the
Columbus, Ohio police department. Sergeant, we just heard, this is the first time we‘ve heard
(INAUDIBLE) that he was with two girls. Have you looked into these two girls? Have you been able
to track them down?

SGT. JOHN HURST, COLUMBUS, OHIO, POLICE DEPARTMENT: Yes, we have spoken to the two
females in question and they were unable to provide any additional information for us.

COSBY: What do you make of the fact that he was not seen, 100, what, different surveillance
cameras in that area. T hey see him going in, but they don‘t see him going out?

HURST: Well, the area does have a significant amount of cameras. There are some dead spots and
there is the possibility with the security officer there operating the equipment manually that it would
not pan at a certain time if somebody was exiting the building.

COSBY: Are you still looking at surveillance videos and have you ruled out that maybe you went to
meet one of these girls? His friends were describing us as sort of he was a lady‘s man.

HURST: Well, we haven‘t ruled out—everything is still on the table and we‘ve spoken with the girls.
They‘ve indicated that he did not meet with them after he had left. And there‘s no indication at this
time not to believe them.
COSBY: Did they have any idea who he may have left with? Was he talking to anyone else that they
saw?
HURST: No, and that‘s the odd thing about this. Nobody is able to give us any information about
Brian and who he was speaking with at the time that they left.

COSBY: We‘ve heard right before the show, about this homeless guy. There was apparently a guy
who said that he saw somebody looking like Brian going into a store, like a 7-Eleven type sort of
convenience store right. Have you checked out his story? And this is a picture of the guy actually.

HURST: Yes, we have checked out the story of the homeless man and the officer. One of the
detectives went up and viewed the video footage and has ruled out that that was not Brian.
COSBY: So they ruled it out at this point that it definitely was not him?

HURST: That‘s correct.

COSBY: What I found so interesting, this guy Brian suddenly disappeared, it was about two years
ago and he took off for about a week. He did call his family during that time. Do you look into maybe
something in his background though and say, this guy may have a propensity for suddenly taking off?

HURST: Well, we‘ve looked at his background extensively and he does have the opportunity at times
where he does leave the bars and leaves his friends in the bars but he‘s never left a situation like this
where he hasn‘t contacted anybody or his friends were not able to locate him.

COSBY: What are you thinking of at this point? Are you leading more towards foul play or that maybe
this is just an extended departure for him?

HURST: Well, everything that indicates that we‘ve looked at, it doesn‘t really look that he would just
walk away. He‘s making good grades. He‘s got a lot going on in his life. Obviously, we haven‘t been
able to rule out anything. And foul play could be a significant part of this investigation.

COSBY: Where are you looking right now? Where do you search if you don‘t have anything on
videotape?

HURST: Well, we‘re still looking, canvassing the area, interviewing the individuals who live in the
area. We‘ve interviewed the employees at the Ugly Tuna.

COSBY: That‘s the bar he was that night?

HURST: That‘s correct. And we‘re just trying to find the one item that will point us in the direction.

COSBY: Really quickly, do you believe at this point he‘ll be found alive?

HURST: Again, we can‘t rule out anything. We‘re hoping for the best. We hope that we do find him
alive. But we also cannot rule out the possibility of foul play.

COSBY: Well, we certainly hope he is found safe and sound. Sergeant, thank you very much and
we‘re going to continue to follow this case. Everybody, we‘re going to put up the tip line. If you have
any information about Brian Shaffer, be sure to call the tip line, 1-877-645-TIPS. And that does it for
me everybody on “Live and Direct.” We‘ll see you tomorrow night.
 
So I’d like to wrap this up because basically I haven´t thought of anything else the last 7 days.

I think it is time for me to move on, I was hoping to have an aha-moment which I’ve could have shared somewhere along my research but haven’t really. However some things have cleared up and my initial impressions have changed.

Had there been a website with complete information, with accurate timeline of events, detailed layout of the bar and surrounding area, and an account of the detective’s 3 main theories behind what happened a lot of rumors or misunderstandings wouldn’t have sneaked in and recalibrated the logic event. People sometimes get overly creative when the scenarios point in multiple direction or in no direction at all.

A lot of mysticism in this case is due to the fact that Brian wasn’t seen leaving through the regular exit. I think that besides his disappearance that this is the only fact that holds ground. And then the major question mark is whether he re-entered the bar or not.

The whole mind game then almost immediately leads to where something must have happened to him in the Ugly Tuna. The place is really small though, hiding under the stage or going into the kitchen he would have been noticed and jumping off the patio he would have been picked up by cameras outside, seen by patrons and most likely hurting himself considering the intoxicated condition he was in. The only plausible is that he took a hike through the emergency exit, and went down that way but the timeline and his captures on the cctv footage at sort of contests that in my opinion.

I’ve learned more about the two women he chats with on the footage at 1.55 am that I didn’t know before.
Evidently their name is Amber and Brighton, they were questioned by authorities and cleared and left the premise seen by the cctv cameras. Upon leaving the scene in the footage, the girls said that one of them got into the bathroom for a few minutes. The bathrooms are located almost next to after the entrance of the Ugly Tuna. When she got back, she said Brian was waiting with the other girl outside. They then said goodbye to each other and they left.
By this time a couple or so of minutes must have passed, setting the time at around 1.58-02.am. However, only from the footage seen by the detectives can we know the exact time they departed. Ultimately, this piece of information now disproves to me that Brian went back directly into bar after he vanished out of sight from the footage.

At the same moments Clint and Meredith thinks it’s time to leave and they start looking around for Brian in the Bar. They shout out his name and check the bathrooms. He is nowhere to be seen. They give him a call at 2.01 am, but it goes directly to voicemail and then they proceed down towards the exit of the building. They check on Brian outside but can’t find him and ultimately head back to the garage and leave with their car altogether.

This scenario leaves a few minutes at the most from Brian’s part to disappear. So my take must be that Brian wanted to avoid detection from his friends, possibly turning his phone off and leaving through one off the hallway doors.
This hallway is located on the left of the entrance of the Ugly Tuna and had several doors. The area is just behind the cctv camera and but was also in full view of the officers in white as seen in the footage camera, however bar guest leaving en masse or a moments distraction could have blocked their view.

So why not just leave down the escalators then? I think the tragic thing here is that he was just about to cross path with them as they were leaving the bar and didn’t want to be seen.

In any other scenario Brian would have either left through the escalators or been seen or heard by his friends. The emergency exit route would have been plausible if he hadn’t been captured on the footage at 1.55am and whilst also hanging out with Amber and Brighton there would have been no time to sneak out that route unseen.

When we see Brian outside the bar at closing time I think he was there because he ultimately was planning to leave.

Clint said “It was Meredith to my right, then me, and then the two girls and then Brian was doing his usual thing. And he was talking to those two girls. And I go, yeah, Brian stick around. He has a tendency to walk away. And probably 10 minutes later, 15 minutes later, I turned to say, Meredith
let‘s go, it was closing time, 2:10, 2:00 and Brian was nowhere to be seen
”.

The cctc camera captures what Clint referenced to the 10-15 minutes. Had Brian went back to the bar they would have seen him there.

So what happens next then?

In the hallway where Brian was waiting, to the left of the entrance at the Ugly Tuna, the straight hallway door was the one the band used:

Sergeant Hurst. When the band left they left back throught the hallway and they loaded up their equipment out the back door, by where the dumpster was but they had to go down the elevator and down the hallway to do that.

However, there were cameras in one of the hallways and on the dumpster door.

We got them (the band) going, cause the hallway that they had to go out through and ultemately where the dumpster was all that was on camera at that time.


So again Brian was not seen on any of the footage from here either.

The only option left for Brian to take was the other door in the same hallway. It lead to a stairwell, at the bottom was a door. This door led to another hallway, which went left or right. From here taking left you ended up in the construction area. Ultimately you’ve could have gotten out this way and ended up on the back of the building.

Needless to say , the whole building including the construction area was searched from top to bottom. Even the sewers were checked.

Dogs picked up a scent on Brian outside the building but it ultimately didn’t lead anywhere.
The comeback podcast speculated that Brian could have possibly urinated while outside and the dogs picked up on that.

So what happens from here, well who knows. Brian could have been picked up by a car, and a victim of foulplay from there.


I was keen early on to believe something happened to him inside the Ugly Tuna. But as I have describe, I believe he left the bar. Also just the idea that he was butchered in the kitchen or put in dumpster bag and discarded of like trash in an establishment as small and packed of patrons and staff as the Ugly Tuna is unrealistic. My initial idea when I heard of Brian’s case was the resemblance to Jamal Khashoggi. However, he was dealt with a death squad of 15 persons, no-one could have pulled it off by themselves or even with help in the Ugly Tuna.

As for the construction site, they searched the place with cadaver dogs, had he died there or or bleeding they would have picked up on that. His father also searched the place on his own with other dogs. In case of a fatal accident, just the idea that construction workers would have hide his body or pour concrete over him doesn’t make any sense.

So I now think Brian got out. And that something happened to him while outside. From here on there would be so much speculation from my part that I must finish here.

At least I am satisfied for myself that I managed to narrow down the events from Brian disappearing from the Ugly Tuna and the World , to just disappear from the World. Which was a hard barrier in itself.

I cannot imagine the detectives on this case and what amount of labor it has taken to be able to solve it. I also think that the tragic passing of Brian’s father has impeded a lot on his continued investigation. He was the prime promotor for Brian and no-one has done it the same way ever since.

I Would have loved to see the 3 theories that the detectives adhere to, I guess they are ahead of where my conclusion stops. Possibly they have circumstantial evidence here and there but can’t puzzle it out altogether. Perhaps on Clint they were interested in what happened after Clint went back home than he was willing to share and he stopped to cooperate after that.

I hope for Brian’s brother Derek’s sake that this case gets solved and that he will get some answers on what happened to Brian.
 
So I’d like to wrap this up because basically I haven´t thought of anything else the last 7 days.

I think it is time for me to move on, I was hoping to have an aha-moment which I’ve could have shared somewhere along my research but haven’t really. However some things have cleared up and my initial impressions have changed.

Had there been a website with complete information, with accurate timeline of events, detailed layout of the bar and surrounding area, and an account of the detective’s 3 main theories behind what happened a lot of rumors or misunderstandings wouldn’t have sneaked in and recalibrated the logic event. People sometimes get overly creative when the scenarios point in multiple direction or in no direction at all.

A lot of mysticism in this case is due to the fact that Brian wasn’t seen leaving through the regular exit. I think that besides his disappearance that this is the only fact that holds ground. And then the major question mark is whether he re-entered the bar or not.

The whole mind game then almost immediately leads to where something must have happened to him in the Ugly Tuna. The place is really small though, hiding under the stage or going into the kitchen he would have been noticed and jumping off the patio he would have been picked up by cameras outside, seen by patrons and most likely hurting himself considering the intoxicated condition he was in. The only plausible is that he took a hike through the emergency exit, and went down that way but the timeline and his captures on the cctv footage at sort of contests that in my opinion.

I’ve learned more about the two women he chats with on the footage at 1.55 am that I didn’t know before.
Evidently their name is Amber and Brighton, they were questioned by authorities and cleared and left the premise seen by the cctv cameras. Upon leaving the scene in the footage, the girls said that one of them got into the bathroom for a few minutes. The bathrooms are located almost next to after the entrance of the Ugly Tuna. When she got back, she said Brian was waiting with the other girl outside. They then said goodbye to each other and they left.
By this time a couple or so of minutes must have passed, setting the time at around 1.58-02.am. However, only from the footage seen by the detectives can we know the exact time they departed. Ultimately, this piece of information now disproves to me that Brian went back directly into bar after he vanished out of sight from the footage.

At the same moments Clint and Meredith thinks it’s time to leave and they start looking around for Brian in the Bar. They shout out his name and check the bathrooms. He is nowhere to be seen. They give him a call at 2.01 am, but it goes directly to voicemail and then they proceed down towards the exit of the building. They check on Brian outside but can’t find him and ultimately head back to the garage and leave with their car altogether.

This scenario leaves a few minutes at the most from Brian’s part to disappear. So my take must be that Brian wanted to avoid detection from his friends, possibly turning his phone off and leaving through one off the hallway doors.
This hallway is located on the left of the entrance of the Ugly Tuna and had several doors. The area is just behind the cctv camera and but was also in full view of the officers in white as seen in the footage camera, however bar guest leaving en masse or a moments distraction could have blocked their view.

So why not just leave down the escalators then? I think the tragic thing here is that he was just about to cross path with them as they were leaving the bar and didn’t want to be seen.

In any other scenario Brian would have either left through the escalators or been seen or heard by his friends. The emergency exit route would have been plausible if he hadn’t been captured on the footage at 1.55am and whilst also hanging out with Amber and Brighton there would have been no time to sneak out that route unseen.

When we see Brian outside the bar at closing time I think he was there because he ultimately was planning to leave.

Clint said “It was Meredith to my right, then me, and then the two girls and then Brian was doing his usual thing. And he was talking to those two girls. And I go, yeah, Brian stick around. He has a tendency to walk away. And probably 10 minutes later, 15 minutes later, I turned to say, Meredith
let‘s go, it was closing time, 2:10, 2:00 and Brian was nowhere to be seen
”.

The cctc camera captures what Clint referenced to the 10-15 minutes. Had Brian went back to the bar they would have seen him there.

So what happens next then?

In the hallway where Brian was waiting, to the left of the entrance at the Ugly Tuna, the straight hallway door was the one the band used:

Sergeant Hurst. When the band left they left back throught the hallway and they loaded up their equipment out the back door, by where the dumpster was but they had to go down the elevator and down the hallway to do that.

However, there were cameras in one of the hallways and on the dumpster door.

We got them (the band) going, cause the hallway that they had to go out through and ultemately where the dumpster was all that was on camera at that time.


So again Brian was not seen on any of the footage from here either.

The only option left for Brian to take was the other door in the same hallway. It lead to a stairwell, at the bottom was a door. This door led to another hallway, which went left or right. From here taking left you ended up in the construction area. Ultimately you’ve could have gotten out this way and ended up on the back of the building.

Needless to say , the whole building including the construction area was searched from top to bottom. Even the sewers were checked.

Dogs picked up a scent on Brian outside the building but it ultimately didn’t lead anywhere.
The comeback podcast speculated that Brian could have possibly urinated while outside and the dogs picked up on that.

So what happens from here, well who knows. Brian could have been picked up by a car, and a victim of foulplay from there.


I was keen early on to believe something happened to him inside the Ugly Tuna. But as I have describe, I believe he left the bar. Also just the idea that he was butchered in the kitchen or put in dumpster bag and discarded of like trash in an establishment as small and packed of patrons and staff as the Ugly Tuna is unrealistic. My initial idea when I heard of Brian’s case was the resemblance to Jamal Khashoggi. However, he was dealt with a death squad of 15 persons, no-one could have pulled it off by themselves or even with help in the Ugly Tuna.

As for the construction site, they searched the place with cadaver dogs, had he died there or or bleeding they would have picked up on that. His father also searched the place on his own with other dogs. In case of a fatal accident, just the idea that construction workers would have hide his body or pour concrete over him doesn’t make any sense.

So I now think Brian got out. And that something happened to him while outside. From here on there would be so much speculation from my part that I must finish here.

At least I am satisfied for myself that I managed to narrow down the events from Brian disappearing from the Ugly Tuna and the World , to just disappear from the World. Which was a hard barrier in itself.

I cannot imagine the detectives on this case and what amount of labor it has taken to be able to solve it. I also think that the tragic passing of Brian’s father has impeded a lot on his continued investigation. He was the prime promotor for Brian and no-one has done it the same way ever since.

I Would have loved to see the 3 theories that the detectives adhere to, I guess they are ahead of where my conclusion stops. Possibly they have circumstantial evidence here and there but can’t puzzle it out altogether. Perhaps on Clint they were interested in what happened after Clint went back home than he was willing to share and he stopped to cooperate after that.

I hope for Brian’s brother Derek’s sake that this case gets solved and that he will get some answers on what happened to Brian.
Thanks for the awesome summary, this is quite the convoluted mystery, hopefully one day this April Fool's Day missing person case will be definitively solved!
We do our best here to keep missing persons and cold cases in the public eye.
 
So I’d like to wrap this up because basically I haven´t thought of anything else the last 7 days.

I think it is time for me to move on, I was hoping to have an aha-moment which I’ve could have shared somewhere along my research but haven’t really. However some things have cleared up and my initial impressions have changed.

Had there been a website with complete information, with accurate timeline of events, detailed layout of the bar and surrounding area, and an account of the detective’s 3 main theories behind what happened a lot of rumors or misunderstandings wouldn’t have sneaked in and recalibrated the logic event. People sometimes get overly creative when the scenarios point in multiple direction or in no direction at all.

A lot of mysticism in this case is due to the fact that Brian wasn’t seen leaving through the regular exit. I think that besides his disappearance that this is the only fact that holds ground. And then the major question mark is whether he re-entered the bar or not.

The whole mind game then almost immediately leads to where something must have happened to him in the Ugly Tuna. The place is really small though, hiding under the stage or going into the kitchen he would have been noticed and jumping off the patio he would have been picked up by cameras outside, seen by patrons and most likely hurting himself considering the intoxicated condition he was in. The only plausible is that he took a hike through the emergency exit, and went down that way but the timeline and his captures on the cctv footage at sort of contests that in my opinion.

I’ve learned more about the two women he chats with on the footage at 1.55 am that I didn’t know before.
Evidently their name is Amber and Brighton, they were questioned by authorities and cleared and left the premise seen by the cctv cameras. Upon leaving the scene in the footage, the girls said that one of them got into the bathroom for a few minutes. The bathrooms are located almost next to after the entrance of the Ugly Tuna. When she got back, she said Brian was waiting with the other girl outside. They then said goodbye to each other and they left.
By this time a couple or so of minutes must have passed, setting the time at around 1.58-02.am. However, only from the footage seen by the detectives can we know the exact time they departed. Ultimately, this piece of information now disproves to me that Brian went back directly into bar after he vanished out of sight from the footage.

At the same moments Clint and Meredith thinks it’s time to leave and they start looking around for Brian in the Bar. They shout out his name and check the bathrooms. He is nowhere to be seen. They give him a call at 2.01 am, but it goes directly to voicemail and then they proceed down towards the exit of the building. They check on Brian outside but can’t find him and ultimately head back to the garage and leave with their car altogether.

This scenario leaves a few minutes at the most from Brian’s part to disappear. So my take must be that Brian wanted to avoid detection from his friends, possibly turning his phone off and leaving through one off the hallway doors.
This hallway is located on the left of the entrance of the Ugly Tuna and had several doors. The area is just behind the cctv camera and but was also in full view of the officers in white as seen in the footage camera, however bar guest leaving en masse or a moments distraction could have blocked their view.

So why not just leave down the escalators then? I think the tragic thing here is that he was just about to cross path with them as they were leaving the bar and didn’t want to be seen.

In any other scenario Brian would have either left through the escalators or been seen or heard by his friends. The emergency exit route would have been plausible if he hadn’t been captured on the footage at 1.55am and whilst also hanging out with Amber and Brighton there would have been no time to sneak out that route unseen.

When we see Brian outside the bar at closing time I think he was there because he ultimately was planning to leave.

Clint said “It was Meredith to my right, then me, and then the two girls and then Brian was doing his usual thing. And he was talking to those two girls. And I go, yeah, Brian stick around. He has a tendency to walk away. And probably 10 minutes later, 15 minutes later, I turned to say, Meredith
let‘s go, it was closing time, 2:10, 2:00 and Brian was nowhere to be seen
”.

The cctc camera captures what Clint referenced to the 10-15 minutes. Had Brian went back to the bar they would have seen him there.

So what happens next then?

In the hallway where Brian was waiting, to the left of the entrance at the Ugly Tuna, the straight hallway door was the one the band used:

Sergeant Hurst. When the band left they left back throught the hallway and they loaded up their equipment out the back door, by where the dumpster was but they had to go down the elevator and down the hallway to do that.

However, there were cameras in one of the hallways and on the dumpster door.

We got them (the band) going, cause the hallway that they had to go out through and ultemately where the dumpster was all that was on camera at that time.


So again Brian was not seen on any of the footage from here either.

The only option left for Brian to take was the other door in the same hallway. It lead to a stairwell, at the bottom was a door. This door led to another hallway, which went left or right. From here taking left you ended up in the construction area. Ultimately you’ve could have gotten out this way and ended up on the back of the building.

Needless to say , the whole building including the construction area was searched from top to bottom. Even the sewers were checked.

Dogs picked up a scent on Brian outside the building but it ultimately didn’t lead anywhere.
The comeback podcast speculated that Brian could have possibly urinated while outside and the dogs picked up on that.

So what happens from here, well who knows. Brian could have been picked up by a car, and a victim of foulplay from there.


I was keen early on to believe something happened to him inside the Ugly Tuna. But as I have describe, I believe he left the bar. Also just the idea that he was butchered in the kitchen or put in dumpster bag and discarded of like trash in an establishment as small and packed of patrons and staff as the Ugly Tuna is unrealistic. My initial idea when I heard of Brian’s case was the resemblance to Jamal Khashoggi. However, he was dealt with a death squad of 15 persons, no-one could have pulled it off by themselves or even with help in the Ugly Tuna.

As for the construction site, they searched the place with cadaver dogs, had he died there or or bleeding they would have picked up on that. His father also searched the place on his own with other dogs. In case of a fatal accident, just the idea that construction workers would have hide his body or pour concrete over him doesn’t make any sense.

So I now think Brian got out. And that something happened to him while outside. From here on there would be so much speculation from my part that I must finish here.

At least I am satisfied for myself that I managed to narrow down the events from Brian disappearing from the Ugly Tuna and the World , to just disappear from the World. Which was a hard barrier in itself.

I cannot imagine the detectives on this case and what amount of labor it has taken to be able to solve it. I also think that the tragic passing of Brian’s father has impeded a lot on his continued investigation. He was the prime promotor for Brian and no-one has done it the same way ever since.

I Would have loved to see the 3 theories that the detectives adhere to, I guess they are ahead of where my conclusion stops. Possibly they have circumstantial evidence here and there but can’t puzzle it out altogether. Perhaps on Clint they were interested in what happened after Clint went back home than he was willing to share and he stopped to cooperate after that.

I hope for Brian’s brother Derek’s sake that this case gets solved and that he will get some answers on what happened to Brian.
Thanks for the Rita Cosby link - some interesting tidbits. I think your analysis is good. I agree with you (and with Hurst) that Brian most likely entered the completely dug up construction area. I happen not to agree that he made it out, and think his remains are most likely buried there likely as result of a stumble/fall/accident/dirt collapse within minutes of Brian's appearance chatting with Brightan/Amber on the surveillance vid outside entrance to UTS.

I find it interesting that in Cosby's interview of Hurst, conducted 9 days after Brian disappeared, there was zero mention of the active construction area just yards from where Brian was last seen at the top of the escalator near the door leading to the construction area. The construction area seems not to have been a focal point at that early date, as it was to a greater extent in 2018 when Hurst was interviewed by a podcaster and Brian had been missing for a decade plus. Instead the focus seems to have been on Brian perhaps running off or perhaps having met foul play. Had it been known in the days after Brian vanished that many years later there'd still be no trace of him and that he is almost certainly dead and was almost certainly already dead when Cosby was interviewing Hurst, perhaps the construction area might have been more of a focal point. As in, don't just run some unreliable dogs through, have a chat with the construction crew and do a bit of digging, move some dirt around, see what you might find...

As to the 3 CPD working theories Hurst noted, I'd guess that in general terms they are:
1) Willful disappearance - Brian intentionally ran off to a new life
2) Homicide - Brian bailed on Clint and Meredith, ran into foul play nearby outside the UTS
3) Suicide - Brian succumbed to expectations/pressures in his life.
 
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Thanks for the Rita Cosby link - some interesting tidbits. I think your analysis is good. I agree with you (and with Hurst) that Brian most likely entered the completely dug up construction area. I happen not to agree that he made it out, and think his remains are most likely buried there likely as result of a stumble/fall/accident/dirt collapse within minutes of Brian's appearance chatting with Brightan/Amber on the surveillance vid outside entrance to UTS.

I find it interesting that in Cosby's interview of Hurst, conducted 9 days after Brian disappeared, there was zero mention of the active construction area just yards from where Brian was last seen at the top of the escalator near the door leading to the construction area. The construction area seems not to have been a focal point at that early date, as it was to a greater extent in 2018 when Hurst was interviewed by a podcaster and Brian had been missing for a decade plus. Instead the focus seems to have been on Brian perhaps running off or perhaps having met foul play. Had it been known in the days after Brian vanished that many years later there'd still be no trace of him and that he is almost certainly dead and was almost certainly already dead when Cosby was interviewing Hurst, perhaps the construction area might have been more of a focal point. As in, don't just run some unreliable dogs through, have a chat with the construction crew and do a bit of digging, move some dirt around, see what you might find...

As to the 3 CPD working theories Hurst noted, I'd guess that in general terms they are:
1) Willful disappearance - Brian intentionally ran off to a new life
2) Homicide - Brian bailed on Clint and Meredith, ran into foul play nearby outside the UTS
3) Suicide - Brian succumbed to expectations/pressures in his life.

What exactly could be used to search the construction area? Ground penetrating radar? I'm not at all familiar with such technology. They are certainly not going to dig up the whole area. How would they proceed? What would it take to get such a search started?

Perhaps the focus was not originally on the construction area because law enforcement had info we do not know about that led them in another direction? Remember that LE are not telling everything they know.
 
I sort of find odd things but I don't know if this one takes the price.
I've found this bizarre thing, a murder mystery game "by" Brian Shaffer, its seems to be a c64 emulation.
Hilarious, its actually playable . , donno the spare time people have to compile such a thing or is it something Brian did pre 2006 that just made it out there...


Clue-by-Brian.jpg


Clue : Brian Shaffer : Free Download, Borrow, and Streaming : Internet Archive
 
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I sort of find odd things but I don't know if this one takes the price.
I've found this bizarre thing, a murder mystery game "by" Brian Shaffer, its seems to be a c64 emulation.
Hilarious, its actually playable . , donno the spare time people have to compile such a thing or is it something Brian did pre 2006 that just made it out there...

I just had a play around with it. I do wonder if that was Brian back in the day. Entirely possible, I used to program Commodore computers and make simple games etc... when I was a kid. I was known for that kind of thing among my friends, even though it's far removed from anything I do now. I was only 9 when I got into all of that, so that kind of programming was at least partly a kids' sport in those days, and I'm not much older than Brian.

Those of us who have been looking at this case for a while have all stumbled across other people with the name Brian Shaffer too. So it could always be that there was a C64 enthusiast out there with the same name.
 
Lets say Brian fell into a ditch in the construction area and it was paved over. Couldn't his body be located with ground penetrating radar?
 
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