Great post, Zwie. Here are the cumulative results of putting my thinking cap on for eight months.
I've linked the timeline and map thread below as a reminder of what we know.
We know for sure that Stephanie and Ames were seen arguing in Ashland before leaving town around 3:30 p.m. Stephanie was seen at the mini-market at Stewart and Lozier Lane in Medford around or after 4:15 p.m. If you blow up the map I have linked below with location icons, you can see that it is just a zig and a zag to get onto Griffin Creek Road. Eventually, this will take you up into the mountains to all sorts of locations, and even back to Stephanie's house without ever going through Ruch. Ames' story about being dropped off at the Ruch Store and hitching a ride to his camp has never been verified. He remains the last person to see Stephanie alive before she was seen at the mini market in Medford. He has never denied being with her at that point, so we can assume he still was.
ETA: Although Ames' son and dil were living in Ashland at the time, we don't know for sure if they were dropped off at home or were in the car with Stephanie and Ames heading to Ruch.
https://maps.google.com/maps/ms?msid=202998600653912919870.0004eb1901303b47009b8&msa=0
Here is my theory. All JMO, MOO, etc. They may have stopped at the mini market so that Stephanie could buy some beer to relax her after the argument. I think it's possible they left the car running and Ames stayed in the car, but moved to the driver's seat so that Stephanie could have a beer, illegally. She had an alcohol monitoring device on her car, according to her friends. We don't know all the stops and starts it recorded that day except for the late night early morning one LE has told us about.
Perhaps he suggested a nice peaceful drive in the country. She would have wanted to be home by 5:00 pm for her usual phone call to her Mom in NOLA and to tell her about the parade. But maybe she agreed to a short drive, or maybe he immobilized her somehow after she'd had a few beers. Or maybe she didn't want to call her Mom after drinking. Either way, I think it's likely they ended up in the mountains. From there, it's anybody's guess, but Ames knows those mountains. There are caves. He would know where he could take her, kill her and hide her body. In the photos of him on the parade float that Neptune enhanced, it appears that he is wearing a gun under his shirt. Keep in mind that they were in an off-road vehicle. It was July 4. A gunshot would go unnoticed.
ETA: I think she was killed near where she is buried and not transported afterward in the car. I think LE would be able to tells if her body had ever been in the car.
One odd event is that someone played a game of Texas Hold'em on her FB page at 6:30 pm July 4. We've debated whether this is an accurate time. Could she have played it on her phone from wherever they drove? Could Ames have planted it on her phone or have gotten back to her house in time to play it...or? I believe her phone is missing. We don't know if any attempt was made to track its pings, or if it was even possible.
LE has told us that her car was used from late at night July 4 into the early morning July 5. They have not told us the times, so it's hard to judge distances. My theory is that after killing her and hiding her body, Ames may have come back to her house. He may have needed items to make it less likely that her body would be discovered...something to wrap her in or plug up a hole with, or even chemicals. That could account for the late night drive...back to the burial site? It would make sense to use her more reliable vehicle. Again, this is just a theory.
ETA: Another possible theory is that Ames also took his son and dil back to Ashland in addition to what I've described above. We just don't know whether Stephanie and Ames were alone when they left Ashland and the things I've theorized transpired. Could Ames have carried all of this out by himself? Was there an accidental or unpremeditated killing that needed to be covered up? Did they come hang out at Stephanie's until after dark and go back to secure the site "on the way" back to Ashland ? I'm not making accusations in any way, with any of this. I'm trying to account for the late night driving and figure out where Stephanie could be. But the three of them moved into Stephanie's very soon after she disappeared and didn't seem particularly concerned. No FB posts asking for help to find her, no searches organized, a self-serving TV interview. I've always thought that they all know what happened that night. JMO, MOO
Her car was returned to her home, but not parked in its usual spot. Her keys and bag of medications were in the kitchen, but not her backpack purse. It's likely that Ames had left his vehicle at her house July 4. So all he would need to do is pick it up in the middle of the night, take her gate opener to let himself out (it's missing) and drive out to his camp.
Ames has repeatedly pointed the finger of blame at Stephanie's neighbor and former boyfriend, with whom she was not on good terms. He, however, has never been named a POI. Of course, nothing is impossible, and I only mention this in fairness to Ames, who feels he has been unjustly suspected in the Ruch community. But IMO, my theory fits better with what we know than trying to somehow shoehorn her old bf into this scenario. I am prepared to eat crow if necessary. I only want Stephanie found and her killer convicted, whoever it is.
I hope LE will organize a cadaver dog search this spring. Using the possibility that they drove out Griffin Creek Road up into the mountains, and the timing of the late night drive, I think they could narrow down the location. Can't hurt, might help.
Again all JMO, MOO.
http://www.websleuths.com/forums/showthread.php?t=226249&highlight=Stephanie+Warner