Just reread the thread to refresh my memory on this case, and would like to share my impressions. It may help pressure test current theories that are being worked on.. My usual caveat is I am an amateur! The other caveat is that I tend to keep my theories simple, and find that serves well. What appears to be, most likely is. Here goes.
A disabled, defenseless five year old child was living with a questionably functioning, alleged drug addict of a mother in "the projects". The immediate surrounding area was inhabited by individuals who had previously been institutionalized for various mental issues or limitations. The child in question was last seen playing 100 ft. from her apartment digging in the dirt with a spoon. (With another child?) This was the last known siting of Lauren.
Tracker advises us that footprints believed to be hers, along with adult size prints were found leading to the Vincent Motel, approx. 1 mile down the road from her home. The track stops there, and no evidence of Lauren was ever found inside the motel.
Here is my amateur theory (based on the little we know), followed by some additional questions.
-I do not believe the mother arranged to have this child disappear, although the Perp was most likely a known associate or loose connection of the mothers; someone Lauren associated to her mother.
-I do not believe some concerned citizen removed Lauren to send her off to a better life
-I theorize this was someone who lived in the very immediate area, and frequented the places the children walked to school, to the store, playground, etc. The Perp had talked to Lauren before and was a known. He saw her as easy prey. The Perp must have asked Lauren to go see a puppy, go get some candy to surprise her mom, or something similar. As Tracker points out, her little prints don't indicate any type of a struggle. She went willingly it seems.
-On what happened next, I am a bit conflicted. The profile I have developed of the Perp doesn't include someone who drives, yet the tracks stop at the motel. It has been stated that no evidence of Lauren was found inside the motel, which suggests they left in a car. This point has me a bit baffled, but I'll move forward with that assumption. My profile of the Perp has him intellectually disadvantaged, and not driving a car. None the less, I will move forward with the hypothesis that they walked to the motel, and then left in a car....
***(Tracker - please give me the exact coordinants (x-streets) of where Lauren's apartment was, and where the motel was/is). I will do a little visual mapping exercise and do my best to provide some predictive modeling on the course that proceeded after the motel. Need those exact x-roads tho. If I don't come up with any solid suggestions, I'll let you know that too.
My big questions/thoughts
-Who arranged for Lauren's hernia operations? (This suggests enough caring, and would help refute any concerns that the parent was involved)
-Was Lauren taken to doctor visits on a routine basis?
-Do we know if any of the mother's associates had been permitted to babysit Lauren alone prior to her disappearance
-Did the neighborhood children ever suggest some local "oddball" might have been "the one?"
-Did LE watch closely who participated in the search? (Any POIs there?)
-Who did the older sister suspect? (Kids that age have great spidey sense) And years later, who does she suspect now?
And finally....the little kid who last saw Lauren "heading to her apartment" when his Mom called him in. *This grown man should be interviewed again*. Most likely he saw something, was threatened, or repressed the memory. I really, really think there is something there. Really do.
In summary, sadly, I think this was another sexual assault/murder of a very vulnerable child. While I don't think the mother arranged it, I think it was most likely one of her known associates. This child was easy prey. The reason I thinking the Perp was of diminished intellectual capacity, is why would they be stupid enough to risk being seen with the child while walking a mile to the motel??
Finally, I really do think that if we can locate the remains of this angel, there would be DNA that would link her death to some miscreant that is incarcerated, or was.
All just amateur speculations and ramblings.
