Profile of the killer (Opinion)

[Lucky7]

This my first time here at Websleuths. I have been following this horrible story ever since Brianna went missing. My heart goes out to Brianna's family. I wish they would find this animal....
Here is a few of my thoughts...
Is there a movie theater near where Brianna's body was found? The reason I ask is, people that manage or work for a theater or the people that clean the theater do not get off of work until early morning.
My other thought is could this monster be a security officer for the the university or someone that cleans the university? How would he know that there would not be anyone in the garage where he raped one of his victims?

 

[philamena]

Welcome Lucky7.
Good idea about the perp maybe being someone who works the late shift. I posted somewhere on here, about people who worked late possibly seeing something unusual.

 

[LillyRush]

I was just talking about the Center City/Fort Collins rapist on the main Brianna thread and mentioning similarities. The rapist/killer in that instance was in the air force and that is why he ending up moving from Philadelphia to Fort Collins.

So, on that note, when I was looking for possible military connections to Reno, Nevada. This came up:
http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/facility/stead.htm

Stead Training Center
Army Guard Training Site Reno, Nevada

Sorry if anyone has already mentioned that and I missed it. But does anyone know if they have checked out any possibility that the perp is in the army and training there? On the website, it says that is only 13 miles north of Reno.

 

[COF88]

I believe that it is also worthwhile to examine the geographic profiling implications in this case as well. Most experts will agree that the geographic and environmental factors play a large role in the case (geography is responsible for a <25% variance in studied rape cases Rossmo 2000.) In terms of classifying the hunting/encounter/attack site I believe that three classical theories are applicable; occupational, local visibility, or familial. I believe the later to be the most likely scenario. I also believe the proximity to the UNR campus is essential to this offender, both for satisfying his sexual needs/fantasy and for the ample opportunity that exists. Conducting any sort of load distance analysis or Bayesian approach is difficult to do with the absence of so much information. So this post will merely exist to stimulate discussion on this case, and the monster responsible for it.

Two things I would like to comment on:

I believe the timing of the December 16th and January 20th to be of some statistical significance. December 16th marks the final week that students would have been on campus at the UNR. January 20th marks the opening of student residences and the reopening of campus following winter break. I would be interested to know if the offender on some level realized this. In my mind it would show a firmer commitment to the hunting area. However it is difficult to link these two variables.

Secondly, I would like to mention the apparent statistical deviation which exits in this case. I’ll use this crime-location set: E = encounter; A = attack; C = crime; VR = victim release; _ = change of location. In most serial offender cases the attacker shows a greater propensity to separate the encounter and attack from the commission of the crime. This is true of most public outdoor serial predators (parking garage / inside truck, both apply). That is to say the most common equation is ER_C_VR OR ER_CVR. However in this case the suspect shows a greater propensity to commit the crime at the same location as the encounter and attack: ERC_VR. I think this reveals an elevated sense of comfort and familiarity with the UNR campus and surrounding residences. This coupled with the absence of any other crime linkages outside of the community leads me to believe that this man is not only familiar with UNR and the area surrounding it, but has a difficult time hunting anywhere outside of it.