Australia Samantha Murphy, 51, last seen leaving her property to go for a run in the Canadian State Forest, Ballarat 100km NW of Melbourne, 4 Feb 2024 #4

[ScottToorak]

What I find compelling is the police have not ruled out the husband. We are 3 weeks into a search for a woman who has disappeared in close proximity to her place of residence that was inhabited by her husband at the time she has supposedly disappeared. I would have thought that 3 weeks and unfettered access to the husband and any explanations he has given to police of his movements the night before and the morning of her disappearance would have comprehensively cleared him of any involvement by now if he was not involved. Ruling out the husband publicly would not jeopardize catching any other offender or finding her alive if she is alive. A clear explanation from Police that the husband is not a suspect would also enhance the well being of the children. As it stands right now the husband is a suspect and the chatter grows and the impact on the children would be growing as well. In more ways than we can appreciate this is a very sad state of affairs for many. <modsnip: Sleuthing family members or non POI/suspects is not allowed>

 

[WiseOwl]

If someone was following her in a car, two possibilities come to mind. First, he speeds up, passes her, stops, walks towards her as though he has something to say, pops the trunk, alternatively he hits her with his vehicle from behind. Same result.

She was wearing a smart watch on the morning that she vanished. I don't have the link anymore, attached photo from missing photos.

Investigators can look at phone numbers connecting with a cell tower in a window of time, but how busy was the golf course at 5 PM on Sunday? Was the suspect's phone turned off before her phone pinged nearby? Probably yes.

If investigators know that she jogged to Canadian Plantation, they must have tracked her smartwatch and phone data to that location. I doubt that her phone was completely turned off during her runs. My impression is that both stopped transmitting near that location, so maybe the phone and watch are in the bushes?

The police have never stated the phone pinged at 5pm, that came from a very early report in the first couple of days after Samantha went missing but never confirmed by the police.

Besides, the first searches for Samatha were that Sunday afternoon shortly after 3pm, so if that info came from the ping it had to be sometime before 3pm.

IMO the phone ping came that morning when Samantha was on her run, sometime between 7 & 8am. Something then happened to Samantha around that time, and the phone was switched off.

 

[Deleted member 339914]

W

What would you see as a motive from persons unknown to her? And why would persons unknown need to plan this

Interesting

Do you think that this individual is likely to reoffend and do something like this again in the not too distant future?

 

[Toowong(s)]

Do you think that this individual is likely to reoffend and do something like this again in the not too distant future?

If the theory is correct then IMO the police would have the individual under very close surveillance, listening and watching, waiting for them to slip up, or waiting for an accomplice, acquaintance or false alibi to freak out and give them up.

 

[Shadow@light]

Maybe a ‘wild’ question but I pose it to those people familiar with the Ballarat area:
When did these current awful fires start ?
How did they start ?
Could they have used to dispose of Sam & an involved vehicle etc ?

Bushfire in Beaufort and Mt Cole National Park started on Thursday around 11am, Wednesday and Thursday was extreme weather condition, heat and wind. On Tuesday it was declared , Wednesday and Thursday to be Totally Fire Ban and Bush fire watch as the elements were perfect for a Bushfire to happen. We had a dry Winter and late start to Summer Forrest growth is thick and dry
Beaufort it believe started by dry lighting. Mt Cole they are not sure, but wind rubbing leaves even a glass bottle with extreme sun can create a spark. With extreme heat not many people travel round.
Many of the Fire embers fly for miles, any of Australian Gumtree and Native tree hold oil. I remember in 1994 The NSW Bushfire, as it jumped the Georges River causes massive fires on other side, the fire was so fast and intense, that the wind blew leaves of solid ash in to Sydney, I was visiting friends in Sydney these leaves just fell ,every detail on the leaf could be seen if you touched just crumbled into Ash.
With the Warnings given on Tuesday, Mt Cole forrest is massive it would easy to drop Sam Body IOM in bush if she had met with foul play, more I think not fire(be a Bonus to the Killer/Killers. I am sorry if this is a bad expression) but massive forrest, intense heat and animals alot of evidence would be destroyed.
IMO
To our Fire Fighters and Company," GO THERE. PUT IT OUT. COME HOME SAFE".

 

[Toowong(s)]

What I find compelling is the police have not ruled out the husband. We are 3 weeks into a search for a woman who has disappeared in close proximity to her place of residence that was inhabited by her husband at the time she has supposedly disappeared. I would have thought that 3 weeks and unfettered access to the husband and any explanations he has given to police of his movements the night before and the morning of her disappearance would have comprehensively cleared him of any involvement by now if he was not involved. Ruling out the husband publicly would not jeopardize catching any other offender or finding her alive if she is alive. A clear explanation from Police that the husband is not a suspect would also enhance the well being of the children. As it stands right now the husband is a suspect and the chatter grows and the impact on the children would be growing as well. In more ways than we can appreciate this is a very sad state of affairs for many. <modsnip: Sleuthing family members or non POI/suspects is not allowed>

It sure is compelling I think it’s what makes this case so fascinating.

My question is how could they rule out the husband if he’s known to have been searching in the very same area on the same morning, within an hour of SM’s presumed last known time and location (Mt Clear, 8am)? We don’t know this for sure (that MM went searching first, before calling police) but it’s highly likely IMO. I can’t imagine someone reporting a missing person to police and being taken seriously if they haven’t had a good look themselves first. Unless there was clear evidence of foul play eg a known stalker, AVO and/or FindMy shows the person way off track from their running route, before all devices go silent. That would be really scary to see of a loved one, it would explain police swift response on the day with helicopters in the air by mid afternoon.

IMO unfortunately for MM he can’t be officially ruled out until police catch the real attacker.

 

[Witness 28]

I agree. Detective acting superintendent Mark Hatt, said there was a lot of movement happening at her house during the day Samantha disappeared

I am sure this will be an important factor for police

But someone has knowledge of her running paths, when she was leaving and persons have been waiting for her at Mount Clear

A vehicle would have been waiting to transport her away

Police would also be looking at any CCTV of vehicles entering those dirt roads from the main road during that morning

The police would have homed in on all the conversations taking place the previous night and morning as part of their electronic surveillance operation and data being used

I feel it's been a planned hit, professionally done, as though she never existed

Professional Hitman or someone who's paid to get rid of someone ,he's does not hate the victim , it's a job to them like everyone's job getting up 6:30 and finishing at three o'clock it's a job, and yes if it's a professional hit you're not going to find the body, if an ordinary husband or person was to commit the crime he would panic and you would find the body

 

[Lukey2121]

Professional Hitman or someone who's paid to get rid of someone ,he's does not hate the victim , it's a job to them like everyone's job getting up 6:30 and finishing at three o'clock it's a job, and yes if it's a professional hit you're not going to find the body, if an ordinary husband or person was to commit the crime he would panic and you would find the body

Serious question. Where do you think one hires a professional hitmen from these days? <modsnip - no link>
Even the ex special forces soldier hired in the bikie hit in Perth rolled over quick once caught.
. <modsnip - no link>
It’s not easy to just hire a hitmen in Australia if you’re not a career criminal.
And lastly, you need to be rolling in cash e.g this is where drug money is perfect.

 

[SESmck]

If someone was following her in a car, two possibilities come to mind. First, he speeds up, passes her, stops, walks towards her as though he has something to say, pops the trunk, alternatively he hits her with his vehicle from behind. Same result.

She was wearing a smart watch on the morning that she vanished. I don't have the link anymore, attached photo from missing photos.

Investigators can look at phone numbers connecting with a cell tower in a window of time, but how busy was the golf course at 5 PM on Sunday? Was the suspect's phone turned off before her phone pinged nearby? Probably yes.

If investigators know that she jogged to Canadian Plantation, they must have tracked her smartwatch and phone data to that location. I doubt that her phone was completely turned off during her runs. My impression is that both stopped transmitting near that location, so maybe the phone and watch are in the bushes?

I agree but if she was knocked out, there would possibly be some evidence. If opportunistic they might find her phone etc. If planned, I don't think they'd chuck it in the bushes.

 

[Witness 28]

Serious question. Where do you think one hires a professional hitmen from these days? <modsnip - no link>
And the idea of going to an OMCG to hire a hitman would have to be one of the dumbest things one could ever fathom. <modsnip>
It’s not easy to just hire a hitmen in Australia if you’re not a career criminal.
And lastly, you need to be rolling in cash e.g this is where drug money is perfect.

Lukey2121 question
Let's keep an open mind someone might have criminal friends or know someone
Outlaw biking organisations, even corrupt police officers someone might even work in a club for a pub .
Link below is contract killing Australia

https://www.aic.gov.au/sites/default/files/2020-05/rpp053.pdf

 

[Neet_Mc]

The police have never stated the phone pinged at 5pm, that came from a very early report in the first couple of days after Samantha went missing but never confirmed by the police.

Besides, the first searches for Samatha were that Sunday afternoon shortly after 3pm, so if that info came from the ping it had to be sometime before 3pm.

IMO the phone ping came that morning when Samantha was on her run, sometime between 7 & 8am. Something then happened to Samantha around that time, and the phone was switched off.

The police have never stated the phone pinged at 5pm, that came from a very early report in the first couple of days after Samantha went missing but never confirmed by the police.

Besides, the first searches for Samatha were that Sunday afternoon shortly after 3pm, so if that info came from the ping it had to be sometime before 3pm.

IMO the phone ping came that morning when Samantha was on her run, sometime between 7 & 8am. Something then happened to Samantha around that time, and the phone was switched off.

I am quite intrigued by the turn around from initial phone call being made to police search getting underway that afternoon. To me, police must suspect something more sinister to warrant the quick turnaround and detecting of phone pings.
Maybe because it’s a regional city theres a difference, maybe because she is a female, but as a contrast - I had my own missing persons experience last year with a late 30s male relative that was reported missing to police. This relative had gone out Friday night, without a car and without a phone. Police were called on Sunday or Monday when various family members were unable to get hold of him. This relative missed work on Monday and also had employee looking for them. They didn’t resurface till Tuesday night.
Now at no point during the days he was missing was a proper ‘police search’ initiated. A local officer dropped over to the house once, relative wasn’t there, and that was it. And behaviour was all completely out of character.
IMO police must have other intelligence surrounding this to suspect something untoward involving external parties has gone on that warrants looking at phone data and launching a search.

 

[SLouTh]

Link below is contract killing Australia
https://www.aic.gov.au/sites/default/files/2020-05/rpp053.pdf

Thanks for the interesting read W28 ….. I never knew such a study / paper existed ….

IMO

 

[SouthAussie]

I am quite intrigued by the turn around from initial phone call being made to police search getting underway that afternoon. To me, police must suspect something more sinister to warrant the quick turnaround and detecting of phone pings.
Maybe because it’s a regional city theres a difference, maybe because she is a female, but as a contrast - I had my own missing persons experience last year with a late 30s male relative that was reported missing to police. This relative had gone out Friday night, without a car and without a phone. Police were called on Sunday or Monday when various family members were unable to get hold of him. This relative missed work on Monday and also had employee looking for them. They didn’t resurface till Tuesday night.
Now at no point during the days he was missing was a proper ‘police search’ initiated. A local officer dropped over to the house once, relative wasn’t there, and that was it. And behaviour was all completely out of character.
IMO police must have other intelligence surrounding this to suspect something untoward involving external parties has gone on that warrants looking at phone data and launching a search.

That's an interesting thought.

It could just be that Mick and Samantha are well known and popular in town, so the police took Mick seriously right away.
I have never read a bad word about either of them.

But you are right that they got the last phone ping very quickly, from the service provider, and on a Sunday. The police moved quickly.

imo

 

[Witness 28]

It sure is compelling I think it’s what makes this case so fascinating.

My question is how could they rule out the husband if he’s known to have been searching in the very same area on the same morning, within an hour of SM’s presumed last known time and location (Mt Clear, 8am)? We don’t know this for sure (that MM went searching first, before calling police) but it’s highly likely IMO. I can’t imagine someone reporting a missing person to police and being taken seriously if they haven’t had a good look themselves first. Unless there was clear evidence of foul play eg a known stalker, AVO and/or FindMy shows the person way off track from their running route, before all devices go silent. That would be really scary to see of a loved one, it would explain police swift response on the day with helicopters in the air by mid afternoon.

IMO unfortunately for MM he can’t be officially ruled out until police catch the real attacker.

I don't blame MM for going out trying to search, I don't even think it's suspicious him going to look, I'd be racking my brains out if it was my wife or daughter or even a son that was missing, I couldn't stay at home I'd get the car and even if the police say you know stay away, I'd still try and search what farther wouldn't what husband would

 

[TootsieFootsie]

Maybe the Police acted quickly because the missing person was someone who had gone out on a run, and with the weather expecting to become hotter, they felt like they had no time to waste, especially after I presume they were told she wasn't carrying water.

 

[acutename]

maybe they got phone/watch info quickly because it was "family plan" and they did not need to get pre-authorizations, etc.

 

[acutename]

Thanks for the interesting read W28 ….. I never knew such a study / paper existed ….

IMO

study is 20 yrs old.... also curious-for "attempts" - if they are really unsuccessful, are they all in the data?

 

[epictreasure]

I wonder if that dam has been searched. ..good place to hide & silence a phone.

There is a quarry I see close to where the ping was at buningyong. The quarry has water the also. The path to to water area I marked on the map where a cars access would be

 

[detective_nero]

I believe even if you turn off your phone it can still be traced? It may be inactive but then once it turns back on a telco provider will have a record of where and when. So, if someone was with Samantha and turned off her phone & watch then turned their own phone back on once they thought they were out of danger or risk in the vicinity of Samantha's devices that would be difficult to explain away.Can anyone verify this?

Correct, all dependant on the cell service provider and towers nearby, the phone can be triangulated to an area or vicinity within the towers range. Probably harder in regional areas, it'll show last active location before being turned off - which is probably the phone data they pulled for the search, however without a phone number of the POI/s there's no way to know who else's phone was with hers at the time.
Could've used someone else's or a burner phone too. If only there was an airtag-airdrop like system that would register nearby phones in proximity to yours

 

[investigatefred]

As Samantha Murphy's disappearance enters fourth week, Ballarat residents continue search

Detective Acting Inspector Mark Hatt told reporters Ms Murphy's husband was not a suspect and the family had been "absolutely fantastic" in cooperating with police.