Hi all some good posts today, have just caught up. Not much new to go on sadly.
Not sure where I’m going with this but I wondered if the damaged vehicle could be a disgruntled customer, someone who brought a vehicle in, perhaps attempting insurance fraud or something, and was refused by SM. Bit of a long bow i think but thought I’d throw it in the mix.
Parking that aside, this is my timeline theory MOO based on what little we do know:
Sat evening - dinner involving SM, MM and friends, at which SM mentions a 14km run in the morning, before it gets too hot.
7am - SM embarks on the planned 14km run (after letting dogs out and picking up after them…). For what it’s worth SM does not take water, that is not her custom as it’s hard to carry and run, it was still nice and cool in the morning, she hydrates before and after running (like me, noting others think it’s irresponsible). SMs run usually takes less than 2 hrs and she intends to be home by 9am to get ready for the rest of her day, however at the half way mark Mt Clear around 8am SM meets with foul play. Multiple theories possible, in my order of likelihood (MOO) below the timeline.
7am -9am - while SM is running, back at the house if it’s anything like my household which is a similar makeup, everyone else has a bit of a sleep in, starts to stir, have breakfast, jump on devices, social media, etc. MM potentially starts a few jobs in the garden, it’s a big property I think would require a fair bit of work on weekends. There’s a possibility one or more of the kids had an activity eg a swimming lesson, or a play date at a friends, so MM could have been out and back home one or more times with one or more kids in tow. Or maybe MM fires up the BBQ and cooks breakfast for the kids. In any event the family are all together doing things and able to corroborate this time window easily.
9am - 11am - sometime in this window family start to wonder where is SM. A family brunch is planned at 11am. SM possibly also had a 10am meeting. So I’d say by 10am someone in the house has put a few texts and calls in to SM, where are you mum/Sam? No answer. Does it ring out? Or go straight to voicemail? Do they check FindMy and see SM is not on the usual running route anymore? By 10am they’re in the car driving the route, looking for Sam/mum. She might be tired or hurt and need a lift back. Maybe her battery died. Maybe there driving beyond the route to where FindMy shows a phone location.
By 11am family are really worried. There has been no sight of Sam, not answered phone. Maybe the person SM was meeting in Ballarat at 10am has also called MM to see if he is with her (after trying SMs phone with no luck).
Around 11am MM contacts police and the official search begins.
It’s important police establish SM crime at Mt Clear happened around 8am and SM was away from that area shortly after. As long as it is possible that the crime could have happened later, say 10am, then it starts to cross over into the time the family are also in the forest searching. Maybe even searching beyond if FindMy took them there.
While the family are innocent and have done everything right in the eyes of the police, it’s almost impossible to untangle them from the web until the real events are known and proven and the attacker is caught.
This timeline theory to me explains why the police say “they think they are accross all the movements to and from the house”.
Theories for what happens at 8am (MOO):
1. Opportunistic predator crosses paths with SM and acts on suppressed urges.
2A. SM witnesses criminal behaviour eg a bikie and his meth stash, and is silenced.
2B. SM is accidentally struck by a car engaged in criminal behaviour and accident is covered up.
3. SM falls victim to an attacker known to SM, who has either stalked SM from early on the run, or maybe knew of the 14km run/route and staked out the Mt Clear turnaround spot.
4. The usual statistical probabilities are affirmed. Really hoping not but need to keep it in the mix.
All IMO. Theoretic timeline with some known times as bookends.
