Australia Samantha Murphy, 51, last seen leaving her property to go for a run in the Canadian State Forest, Ballarat 100km NW of Melbourne, 4 Feb 2024 #6

[ausleauther]

It was after 6-7days it was announced as suspicious though, as always the public only know a fraction of what the police do in these cases... Abduction/foul play would have been high on their list early on no doubt, just because they didn't make it public (especially if they didn't have any solid leads on evidence or couldn't confirm this theory at the time, theres no reason to announce all their avenues of interest to the public) early on doesn't mean they weren't looking at all evidence available from all different angles, I.e. abduction/foul play, left by choice, mental health, injury, disorientation and lost, medical episode etc... they wanted that window of cctv early on considering they didn't have a specific lead just many avenues and that time was the most logical and appropriate to request and investigate, once more clues came they can the start piecing the puzzle. I don't agree it was weeks of the police following just one line of inquiry you mentioned, as stated they announced the disappearance as suspicious after 6-7 days, that's not weeks of thinking she had an "accident on her run and was stranded somewhere in the bush", mind you a very small chunk of bush that boarders a major regional city, this wasn't real open expansive bushland.

They must've had on eyes on him when they said there's no risk to the public

 

[solari]

I don't understand.
Do you think DM published the story/photos behind the girl's back?
Against her wishes?

Wouldn't be the first time, I doubt they got permission from SM's family to post their house address so early on, the social media photos of the GF were all blurred on other media outlets, DM showed every social media photo of the two with her face un-blurred and announced her name, the horse photos are take by long range lenses, they are sneaky photos, paparazzi style, sneaky and invasive, they don't have the best reputation, I mean look at what Nicola Bulley's husband had to address after she her case was solved, he ripped them a new one from memory and rightfully so

 

[JLZ]

I expected that they would find the body soon after the arrest. Once they had a suspect I thought they would be able to track his movements and narrow down possible locations and find SMs body quite fast. Im surprised they still have not found her, even without PS cooperating.
There has been alot of debate over it being planned, targeted etc but regardless of motive, or the many possible theories, the alleged suspect has somehow come across her in the bush and apparently a murder has occured, but why still no body?

I dont think it would take alot of planning or intelligence to "take advantage" of the thousands of mineshafts in the area.
As another poster mentioned, the Under Investigation episode mentioned several times, that it would be almost impossible to find a body down a mineshaft, it felt strange at the time, almost like they were advertising it as an option, or now, i believe...preparing for the grim reality she may never be found.
I believe this is a likely scenario and they know there is not much hope of retrieving SMs body without a confession. The show could very well have given him renewed confidence of his very convenient "disposal location" which further encourages his silence.

Maybe they haven't found Sam because it wasn't the accused who killed her.

 

[solari]

She seems to be quite content taking candid footage of other people and broadcasting it, what’s the difference!? (And completely grateful of said footage because now we have actual picture of PS painted for us!)

Well she's not a media publication, she's a young girl living her life, that's what people do these days, I quit snap chat after the first year of having it (talking 2013-14 here) because I got sick of seeing those kinds of videos by people I don't really wanna know getting up that mischief, from what I understand that photo was posted to SC.
She also isn't the alleged killer in this case, she's a victim too.

 

[thegoogler]

Maybe they haven't found Sam because it wasn't the accused who killed her.

That would be quite the development.

Pretty mammoth call to charge someone with murder without sufficient proof.

It's a long time for speculation though until the next court date, do folks think we will hear more from VICPOL before then or are they likely to remain tight lipped?

 

[BabeBlues]

It was

called Feb Fever .. a smallish event running over I think six weekends at the renovated bluestone goods shed at Ballarat Rail Stn.

Thanks, I did see that one but I don't regard it as a music festival but more of a revamp of an old venue with live music on the weekends. Sorry I think of a festival as a much bigger weekend event with 1000's in attendance like Summer Salt or a bush doof

 

[Dr Samoht]

I a

Thanks, I did see that one but I don't regard it as a music festival but more of a revamp of an old venue with live music on the weekends. Sorry I think of a festival as a much bigger weekend event with 1000's in attendance like Summer Salt or a bush doof

A

Thanks, I did see that one but I don't regard it as a music festival but more of a revamp of an old venue with live music on the weekends. Sorry I think of a festival as a much bigger weekend event with 1000's in attendance like Summer Salt or a bush doof

agreed , it was pretty small to what you’d normally term a music festival … I’m not aware of any other event happening that weekend .

 

[Whatson]

Pretty mammoth call to charge someone with murder without sufficient proof.

It has happened before.

What is the evidence of a catastrophic event?

A heart rate monitor?

Catastrophic is most commonly linked to heart or brain issues when talking about death.

The accused may have simply ran someone over who had already had a heart attack... Then decided to dispose of the body due to a high blood alcohol level and drugs in system.

Not dismissing anything here. Just sleuthing while keeping an open mind.

 

[JLZ]

That would be quite the development.

Pretty mammoth call to charge someone with murder without sufficient proof.

It's a long time for speculation though until the next court date, do folks think we will hear more from VICPOL before then or are they likely to remain tight lipped?

Good question. I think they'll find her before then [edit: I mean before the trial, not before the next court date] and perhaps the location will incriminate the accused.

 

[JLZ]

It has happened before.

What is the evidence of a catastrophic event?

A heart rate monitor?

Catastrophic is most commonly linked to heart or brain issues when talking about death.

The accused may have simply ran someone over who had already had a heart attack... Then decided to dispose of the body due to a high blood alcohol level and drugs in system.

Not dismissing anything here. Just sleuthing wholly keeping an open mind.

I was thinking more along the lines of the technological evidence being wrong or misinterpreted. I'm reminded of the killing of Myrna Nilsson, but I don't know the case well and don't have a real opinion about what actually happened there.

 

[drsleuth]

I can't imagine what scenarios are going thru Sam's families minds, knowing your loved one is deceased, but not knowing why or how or where they are- I think it would drive me insane.

I hope the police have been able to give them some details at least.

Than, also the accused family must have similar thoughts too........only their loved one is the accused.

My heart breaks for them all

 

[drsleuth]

Sorry Mods O/T, but

Any Sydney siders please keep a look out for Hussein, he's been missing for 2 days now. He lives with Down Syndrome & Autism

Have you seen Hussein?
Hussein, aged 12, was last seen running from Auburn Memorial Park towards the intersection of Station Road and Rawson Street, Auburn, at 10.30am Saturday 9 March 2024.
When Hussein was unable to be located, he was reported missing to officers attached to Auburn Police Area Command, who commenced inquiries to locate him.
Following inquiries police believe Hussein may have been in the vicinity of Norval Street and Hevington Road, Auburn, about 9pm Saturday 9 March 2024.
Police and family hold very serious concerns for Hussein’s welfare as he lives with down syndrome, autism, is nonverbal and has not been sighted for two days.
Hussein is described as being of Mediterranean/Middle Eastern appearance, of slim build, about 140cm tall, with short black hair and brown eyes.
He was last seen wearing a white shirt and a nappy/diaper. Hussein is not wearing any shoes.
Hussein may be scared of strangers and run away if approached, police recommend if anyone sees Hussein to immediately contact Triple Zero (000) and advise them of his location and movements.
Police are asking the public to check common areas, fire escapes, sheds, backyards and other public areas in Auburn especially on the Norval Street. Auburn area.

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He's been found!

 

[Poirot's niece]

The exercise I am ( not very successfully ) referring to here is an actual thing, it was developed in the 1980's by a man called Stuart Kind, in the matter of the Yorkshire serial killer, .. ( this was before GPS and all that, but the maths and theory relate) ... called GeoProfiling.... it was originally used to pinpoint the location of the murderer, his starting point, so to speak. Where he left home from to go out and murder..

But it is also used to reckon up where crimes are perpetrated, where bodies are likely to be left, etc... .. this below is a small outline of the process...

As summarized in Rossmo (1999), key results of these studies include: Most crimes occur in relatively close proximity to the offender’s home, crime trips follow a distance-decay function, with the number of crime occurrences decreasing with distance from the offender’s home, juvenile offenders exhibit less mobility than adult offenders and patterns in crime trip distances vary by crime type.”

'At a theoretical level, these studies are based on a growing body of research that illustrates that people use simple cognitive judgements and experience to make precise conclusions (Gigerenzer & Selton (2001)). In a nutshell geographical profiling allows investigators to identify suspects by drawing a comparison between where they actually live and the forecasted location of the offenders abode. Limited research into the potential fallibility of such systems has nonetheless produced encouraging evidence, suggesting that the police search parameters can be reduced by a staggering ninety percent (Canter et al. 2000)."

( what this means, roughly, is, .. the killer followed a subconcious path to where he disposed of the body. In a state of elevated, probably not over high, but elevated stress, the subconscious makes the decisions, and the fall back is to go where he has been before. In other words, not forging a new path on this occasion. )

Wow, thanks for this. Such a compelling and simple theory and systems. It ties in with the majority of homicides in Oz being committed at or near the victim/perp residence.
So regardless of whether a murder is opportunistic or planned, the actions taken by the perp afterwards are a kind of muscle memory, based on familiarity, a low risk choice. So, as you say its largely unconscious-or a survival mechanism of sorts. Routine and known options taking over to choose the safest movement under stress.
The cctv from places on those adjoining 3 streets, the tracks leading from search areas on Boak road. The close proximity to the accused's school and home. The emphasis on cctv and dashcam footage from 7AM to 7PM on the day Sam disappeared would likely be within the guidelines of this theory a fairly narrow and predictable range. What might have occurred after this initial concealment would be harder to forecast, but still, its unlikely to somewhere completely new to the offender. LE would be filling in the accused's timeline for every moment of his life from 7AM to point of arrest. Any unaccounted for hours would be zoomed in on with a lazer.

 

[Neet_Mc]

The PS Ute has three distinguishing features that should be easily picked up on in CCTV or even peoples recollections .
The thick black CB radio aerial mounted on the front bull bar
The black snorkel on the drivers side front mudguard
The black vinyl covered rear mounted rooftop camping / sleeping accessory .
Whilst not unique these add ons will make the vehicle stand out .

Wonder if any of those features were removed after the event, in an attempt to de-identify when calls were being made by police for cctv for vehicles leaving the area

 

[Poirot's niece]

The exercise I am ( not very successfully ) referring to here is an actual thing, it was developed in the 1980's by a man called Stuart Kind, in the matter of the Yorkshire serial killer, .. ( this was before GPS and all that, but the maths and theory relate) ... called GeoProfiling.... it was originally used to pinpoint the location of the murderer, his starting point, so to speak. Where he left home from to go out and murder..

But it is also used to reckon up where crimes are perpetrated, where bodies are likely to be left, etc... .. this below is a small outline of the process...

As summarized in Rossmo (1999), key results of these studies include: Most crimes occur in relatively close proximity to the offender’s home, crime trips follow a distance-decay function, with the number of crime occurrences decreasing with distance from the offender’s home, juvenile offenders exhibit less mobility than adult offenders and patterns in crime trip distances vary by crime type.”

'At a theoretical level, these studies are based on a growing body of research that illustrates that people use simple cognitive judgements and experience to make precise conclusions (Gigerenzer & Selton (2001)). In a nutshell geographical profiling allows investigators to identify suspects by drawing a comparison between where they actually live and the forecasted location of the offenders abode. Limited research into the potential fallibility of such systems has nonetheless produced encouraging evidence, suggesting that the police search parameters can be reduced by a staggering ninety percent (Canter et al. 2000)."

( what this means, roughly, is, .. the killer followed a subconcious path to where he disposed of the body. In a state of elevated, probably not over high, but elevated stress, the subconscious makes the decisions, and the fall back is to go where he has been before. In other words, not forging a new path on this occasion. )

Wow, thanks for this. Such a compelling and simple theory and systems. It ties in with the majority of homicides in Oz being committed at or near the victim/perp residence.
So regardless of whether a murder is opportunistic or planned, the actions taken by the perp afterwards are a kind of muscle memory, based on familiarity, a low risk choice. So, as you say its largely unconscious-or a survival mechanism of sorts. Routine and known options taking over to choose the safest movement under stress.
The cctv from places on those adjoining 3 streets, the tracks leading from search areas on Boak road. The close proximity to the accused's school and home. The emphasis on cctv and dashcam footage from 7AM to 7PM on the day Sam disappeared would likely be within the guidelines of this theory a fairly narrow and predictable range. What might have occurred after this initial concealment would be harder to forecast, but still, its unlikely to be somewhere completely new to the offender. LE would be filling in the accused's timeline for every moment of his life from 7AM to point of arrest. Any unaccounted for hours would be zoomed in on with a lazer.
*Edit for grammar

 

[Deleted member 293720]

They must've had on eyes on him when they said there's no risk to the public

He's been found!

Fantastic News !!

 

[Dotta]

If the perp took the victim in a car,
then there must be DNA there!

Or was the body allegedly put into a bag,
not directly touching the car's surfaces?

But then, the sniffing dogs must have found her scent in the car.

The car was taken by Police,
so they might find some evidence there linking the accused to Samantha.

JMO

 

[solari]

Thanks, I did see that one but I don't regard it as a music festival but more of a revamp of an old venue with live music on the weekends. Sorry I think of a festival as a much bigger weekend event with 1000's in attendance like Summer Salt or a bush doof

Venues do often have their own festivals though, back when I lived and breathed the live music scene in Australia venues of all different descriptions and sizes would have a "weekend festival" type of line up, sometimes an "after party" after a bigger local event and sometimes just a mini day festival at a venue, I remember attending one at one point at Karova Lounge in Ballarat years ago

 

[BoysTown]

Sorry Mods O/T, but

Any Sydney siders please keep a look out for Hussein, he's been missing for 2 days now. He lives with Down Syndrome & Autism

Have you seen Hussein?
Hussein, aged 12, was last seen running from Auburn Memorial Park towards the intersection of Station Road and Rawson Street, Auburn, at 10.30am Saturday 9 March 2024.
When Hussein was unable to be located, he was reported missing to officers attached to Auburn Police Area Command, who commenced inquiries to locate him.
Following inquiries police believe Hussein may have been in the vicinity of Norval Street and Hevington Road, Auburn, about 9pm Saturday 9 March 2024.
Police and family hold very serious concerns for Hussein’s welfare as he lives with down syndrome, autism, is nonverbal and has not been sighted for two days.
Hussein is described as being of Mediterranean/Middle Eastern appearance, of slim build, about 140cm tall, with short black hair and brown eyes.
He was last seen wearing a white shirt and a nappy/diaper. Hussein is not wearing any shoes.
Hussein may be scared of strangers and run away if approached, police recommend if anyone sees Hussein to immediately contact Triple Zero (000) and advise them of his location and movements.
Police are asking the public to check common areas, fire escapes, sheds, backyards and other public areas in Auburn especially on the Norval Street. Auburn area.

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He’s been found

 

[investigatefred]

I believe the information gleaned from Samantha's apple watch and phone will be very telling, if and when the information is released.

The watch data will show her normal activity, any spikes, and ultimately the decline of activity from her heart.

I do wonder if he too wore an apple or other smart watch?

I hope he comes to his senses, shows some remorse and discloses where he has placed her. It is time for him to man up, accept the consequences of his actions and stop delaying this further torture of Samantha's family, for their sake and his own family's sake.

JMO
___________

To add, below is an article about the types of information that can be gleaned from "smart devices". I thought it to be quite interesting what our phones and watches can detect, collect and tell about us, and how that information has been used in other cases.

Butler Snow | Utilizing Apple Watch Data in Civil Litigation

For more than a decade, wearable technology has tracked our walking and running distances. But these devices’ capabilities have long surpassed simply counting our steps. We eagerly accessorize with the newest technology that ...

www.butlersnow.com