Australia Samantha Murphy, 51, last seen leaving her property to go for a run in the Canadian State Forest, Ballarat 100km NW of Melbourne, 4 Feb 2024 #7

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I think the alleged murderer, was waiting for SM in bushes, with his vehicle hidden

And ambushed her from behind, possibly knocked her out

He would have acted quickly as he wouldn't want a scene, with her running or screaming

Bringing the attention to anyone else who might have been close by

He might have planned the 7 km attack, so Samantha was a bit tired and easier to attack her as well
 
Whatever they have, it points unequivocally to these things...

That Mrs Murphy is dead.

That she died on that Sunday morning.

She died at Mt Clear.

She died at the hands of Mr. Stephenson.


To reverse empahsis this..

She did not die at any other time , it was that Sunday morning.

She is definitely deceased.

Her murder was committed at Mt. Clear, and no where else.

ONly Mr. Stephenson has been accused, and charged with her murder. VICPOL say no one else is involved. The evidence apparently points to no one else EXCEPT Mr. Stephenson. No other evidence has been collected that indicates anyone else being associated with this hideous crime.
You're right. My guess is they have footage, then aired the UI program to get a few more people to come forward with information, so that they could confirm (without a doubt), that it was the accused in the footage.

I wonder how early they obtained the footage, if that's what they have.

I'm dreading finding out what evidence they have. It's not going to be easy to hear.
 
Police are not able to sit around the table and decide for themselves who they will charge with murder,... it really does require a lot of hard, actionable, verifiable , reliable, evidence.. It requires any theoretical chain capable of being repeated in court , backed by evidence.

And then all this stuff goes off to the Office of the Public Prosecutor, where the Dept. of Public Prosecution hangs out, these are the people who take the Police case to court. So the police investigation team have to convince the OPP and the DPP that what they have is absolutely gold, and platinum, with diamonds thrown in. It has to be the kind of evidence that judge sees clearly for adjudication. By it's nature, it has to be more than someone just saying it happened, a lot more than that. That, on it's own, would not be enough.

Then, and only then, does a judge sign off on the warrant for arrest on the charge of murder.,

It has to be the kind of evidence that a jury sees, and hears and goes , 'yes. .. that was what was done, and he did it. ' .... no one in court has to worry about why he did it, that's for another day, another venue.

Once the OPP and the DPP are satisfied that the police have enough evidence to arrest someone, a warrant is issued, and off they go, banging on doors at 6am, because disturbance is the key , here. They want their arrestee disturbed.

VICPOL are not only convinced that Mrs Murphy is dead, but that she died early that Sunday morning, at Mt Clear, at the hand of Mr. S. These four things, not just him being charged with murder, but the claim of her death, and the location, and the timing points to VICPOL having some colossal , gigantic gold/platinum/diamond/ evidence, of the sort rarely falling into police hands....
this is why i think ps videoed the whole event on his phone and police have that footage evidence of it all and possibly his gf coming forward with evidence too
 
this is why i think ps videoed the whole event on his phone and police have that footage evidence of it all and possibly his gf coming forward with evidence too
I'm inclined to think something along these lines, too. I think if this attack was something he had been planning and rehearsing for a while, he would have wanted to keep some kind of photo or video record of it, so he could go back and relive it over and over again. Similar to the way serial offenders often keep some kind of 'trophy' from each of their victims. IMO, MOO, etc., etc.
 
I'm inclined to think something along these lines, too. I think if this attack was something he had been planning and rehearsing for a while, he would have wanted to keep some kind of photo or video record of it, so he could go back and relive it over and over again. Similar to the way serial offenders often keep some kind of 'trophy' from each of their victims. IMO, MOO, etc., etc.
Dashcam even?
Did the parents take off pretty fast? They haven’t appeared at court or anywhere since the arrest have they? What’s the chances of them coming across evidence (ie photos, video) and being an informant….
 
I'm inclined to think something along these lines, too. I think if this attack was something he had been planning and rehearsing for a while, he would have wanted to keep some kind of photo or video record of it, so he could go back and relive it over and over again. Similar to the way serial offenders often keep some kind of 'trophy' from each of their victims. IMO, MOO, etc., etc.
Mmm dashcam from his own vehicle possibly? MOO
 
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@Dr Samoht .... with reference to your post about CCTV at the phone tower on Boak Road, I was just wondering if you could see the camera and which way it is pointed? Or is it one of those dome cameras that get a 360 degree view?

I have been looking at the tower area on Google streetview, but I can't find the CCTV camera. Streetview is from 2008, so the CCTV could have been added since then.
I looked hard after reading the sign … couldn’t see anything obvious .. did wonder if it’s attached to nearby trees ?
I’m sure the casual passer by would be the none the wiser cctv was put in place .. even after reading the warning sign .
 
So it sounds as though we are slowly coming to something more of a consensus on the likelihood of certain aspects of Samantha’s “disappearance”…

Is this what others are thinking:
1. The accused most likely has a history of troubled and disturbing behaviours of various kinds (even if no formal record);
2. The accused most likely carefully planned the alleged murder some time in advance, and has possibly had longstanding fantasies of violent and/or sexually violent behaviour;
3. The accused intended to leave no traces of the body or murder behind, however was tripped up (potentially, hypothetically) by a desire to relive the actions he had committed via inages/videos he recorded OR
4. Unknown to the alleged offender, some third party, or third party recording device, captured his fateful actions….

Is this what others are hypothetically speculating?

If so, to me this hypothesised scenario is sounding eerily more close to what one typically sees in the backgrounds of emerging “at risk” of becoming serial killers, with longstanding narcissistic-psychopathic-sadistic traits…. JMO…MOO…
No. I'm more of the opinion it was a close call encounter of car/motorbike against trail walker that turned into an argument on the trail followed by deliberate attack/assault causing death (with accused off/out of vehicle), followed by disposal of victim and hoping to continue to living life as though nothing happened.

All this while the accused was still "somewhat under the influence of X" and running on little, if any, sleep from when they finished partying at 3am.
 
I only have to reiterate, that VICPOL have made these outstanding claims. Outstanding in that is not the usual understated , minimal , utterly banal , totally suggested scenarios that VICPOL is in the habit of stating.. VICPOL is not in the business of making fools of themselves, and it drives home, to me, that they hold as many aces as their little gritty hands can grip.
 
I only have to reiterate, that VICPOL have made these outstanding claims. Outstanding in that is not the usual understated , minimal , utterly banal , totally suggested scenarios that VICPOL is in the habit of stating.. VICPOL is not in the business of making fools of themselves, and it drives home, to me, that they hold as many aces as their little gritty hands can grip.
Hopefully VICPOLs “aces” may bring (at least) some comfort and closure to Samantha’s family and friends in these otherwise incomprehensibly devastating circumstances…. :(
 
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Hopefully VICPOLs “aces” may bring (at least) some comfort and closure to Samantha’s family and friends in these otherwise incomprehensibly devastating circumstances…. :(

I have a feeling that Mick may know how the police have determined that Sam is deceased. Because I think a husband may insist on knowing how they know his wife is deceased, under the veil of complete confidentiality. It would be very hard to accept otherwise.

Maybe not specific details, but maybe something like "we have a trusted informant" or "we have CCTV of the incident" or "we have found physical evidence that Sam couldn't have survived" or something else that a grieving husband can accept.

imo
 
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Whatever they have, it points unequivocally to these things...

That Mrs Murphy is dead.

That she died on that Sunday morning.

She died at Mt Clear.

She died at the hands of Mr. Stephenson.


To reverse empahsis this..

She did not die at any other time , it was that Sunday morning.

She is definitely deceased.

Her murder was committed at Mt. Clear, and no where else.

ONly Mr. Stephenson has been accused, and charged with her murder. VICPOL say no one else is involved. The evidence apparently points to no one else EXCEPT Mr. Stephenson. No other evidence has been collected that indicates anyone else being associated with this hideous crime.
For VicPol to be so sure in my mind there has to be some really damning evidence. Maybe it’s a covertly recorded confession, maybe it’s information gathered from an informant, Could be both.

But to be so sure of how it happened (murder), where it happened (mt clear) and when it happened (that Sunday morning) my thoughts are they have some form of camera footage of it. It could be PS recorded it himself, and then he could have shown it to a person or someone could have found it accidently.

My head tells me the act of SM’s murder, or part of it, was captured on cctv. There’s a huge rubbish dumping problem which cctv is used to capture people, there are towers such as the electricity tower that have cctv as well. I think VicPol have received that footage, known SM is dead, stopped searching for a missing person and focused on murder. I’m thinking they couldn’t ID the perp properly from just the cctv, they’ve then done the tower dump, found out who was in the area at that time, matched it up and lead them to PS. Surveilled him for a few weeks, got more evidence, then pounced.

Could be way off, but that’s what I believe is what has unfolded in this case.

All MOO of course
 
For VicPol to be so sure in my mind there has to be some really damning evidence. Maybe it’s a covertly recorded confession, maybe it’s information gathered from an informant, Could be both.

But to be so sure of how it happened (murder), where it happened (mt clear) and when it happened (that Sunday morning) my thoughts are they have some form of camera footage of it. It could be PS recorded it himself, and then he could have shown it to a person or someone could have found it accidently.

My head tells me the act of SM’s murder, or part of it, was captured on cctv. There’s a huge rubbish dumping problem which cctv is used to capture people, there are towers such as the electricity tower that have cctv as well. I think VicPol have received that footage, known SM is dead, stopped searching for a missing person and focused on murder. I’m thinking they couldn’t ID the perp properly from just the cctv, they’ve then done the tower dump, found out who was in the area at that time, matched it up and lead them to PS. Surveilled him for a few weeks, got more evidence, then pounced.

Could be way off, but that’s what I believe is what has unfolded in this case.

All MOO of course
Could also be cameras strapped to trees to monitor wildlife in national park.


Screenshot_20240317_101812_Chrome.jpg
 
For VicPol to be so sure in my mind there has to be some really damning evidence. Maybe it’s a covertly recorded confession, maybe it’s information gathered from an informant, Could be both.

But to be so sure of how it happened (murder), where it happened (mt clear) and when it happened (that Sunday morning) my thoughts are they have some form of camera footage of it. It could be PS recorded it himself, and then he could have shown it to a person or someone could have found it accidently.

My head tells me the act of SM’s murder, or part of it, was captured on cctv. There’s a huge rubbish dumping problem which cctv is used to capture people, there are towers such as the electricity tower that have cctv as well. I think VicPol have received that footage, known SM is dead, stopped searching for a missing person and focused on murder. I’m thinking they couldn’t ID the perp properly from just the cctv, they’ve then done the tower dump, found out who was in the area at that time, matched it up and lead them to PS. Surveilled him for a few weeks, got more evidence, then pounced.

Could be way off, but that’s what I believe is what has unfolded in this case.

All MOO of course
Assuming (hypothetically) that the above is all the case, I’m guessing that the accused’s continuing silence will only intensify the Polices’s determination to hit the accused with as many charges as possible based on the “aces” they have? And argue very strongly against early release? JMO…

Just out of curiosity, in cases such as this where Police have so many “aces” so-to-speak, does it make much of a difference what kind of barrister one has representing one, in terms of legal outcome? I’m just wondering how people justify private barrister fees in circumstances where the evidence is so compelling? Can anyone comment on this?
 
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There appears to be some houses on the corner of McCarthys and Boundary Roads, down near where Recreation Road meets Boak Road. IMO

Could there be any camera activity that captured people using Boak Road from one of these residences?? JMO
 
Dashcam even?
Did the parents take off pretty fast? They haven’t appeared at court or anywhere since the arrest have they? What’s the chances of them coming across evidence (ie photos, video) and being an informant….

I think the police gave them warning, as once their son is named

All hell will break loose with the media and the police would be conducting searches

I would be surprised though if his parents didn't already know about any alleged problems
 
Just out of curiosity, in cases such as this where Police have so many “aces” so-to-speak, does it make much of a difference what kind of barrister one has representing one, in terms of legal outcome? I’m just wondering how people justify private barrister fees in circumstances where the evidence is so compelling? Can anyone comment on this?
There is a good article here about the importance of a good barrister …




However it can be very expensive ….

The most sought-after Queens’ Counsel or Senior Counsel can charge upwards of $7,000 per day and, as serious court cases usually span weeks or even months, you can expect to be hit with a hefty legal bill for criminal barrister’s fees.

 
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Assuming (hypothetically) that the above is all the case, I’m guessing that the accused’s continuing silence will only intensify the Polices’s determination to hit the accused with as many charges as possible based on the “aces” they have? And argue very strongly against early release? JMO…

Just out of curiosity, in cases such as this where Police have so many “aces” so-to-speak, does it make much of a difference what kind of barrister one has representing one, in terms of legal outcome? I’m just wondering how people justify private barrister fees in circumstances where the evidence is so compelling? Can anyone comment on this?
My guess is that whatever the alleged crime, if you want any chance of getting out lightly, you'd pay whatever you or family could. You wouldn't want a lawyer telling the court 'its the vibe of the thing'
 
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