Australia Samantha Murphy, 51, last seen leaving her property to go for a run in the Canadian State Forest, Ballarat 100km NW of Melbourne, 4 Feb 2024 #8

[Trooper]

Best guess
They have some sort of smoking gun that we’ll find out at august 8

If he gives up the body location, it’ll be left to the last minute, get some sort of plea deal & avoid trial.

I would be surprised if anyone entered into a plea deal with Mr S. The term for conviction is 30 years, no ifs or buts about it, AU does not have 'degrees ' of murder, ,it's murder or manslaughter, and he's been charged with and will go to trial for murder.

He has already put himself in a position where he would be unlikely to have any mitigating circumstances found that would lower any sentence. He has not co operated, shown no remorse, remains recalcitrant, and the cruelty to the family of his victim is extreme. Uncivilised and extreme.

If he gives up the location of the body NOW, he still has not met any of the criteria for any deal.


Also, he would not be able to avoid trial, in one sense , even if he pleads guilty, he still has to sit and listen while the judge outlines his crime, and his previous crimes that may relate to this murder, and then all the reasons the judge has arrived at the sentence, and then the sentence is announced. Life, and how many years he must serve before he is able to apply for parole, which does not mean he gets parole. Only , that he can apply and hope.

 

[hillshaveeyes]

Police might have gotten the rego from Highway Patrol. There is a Highway Patrol charge against a “PS” listed in upcoming cases on the Magistrate’s Court of Vic site at 7.30am on the same day / place as “P.O.S” is appearing (at 8am). Obviously this may well be a completely different person, or be the same person and have occurred on a completely different date. IMO.

But it got me thinking, could it be possible that was picked up Highway Patrol Ballarat on Sunday morning? If so, it could put him in the vicinity of SM on the morning.

Some hypotheticals…

If he was picked up “before” he crossed paths with SM, he either would have a) been allowed to drive home (more likely if it was a speeding ticket, perhaps less likely if drug/alcohol affected), or b) be forced to leave his car/motorbike on the side of the road. IMO

a) If “before and allowed to drive”, perhaps he was distracted, adrenaline pumping after being picked up by HWP. Sunrise was at ~6.41am on the day SM went missing. Assuming he is driving east along Recreation Road, would the sun have been peeping over the tall trees around ~8am and shining straight into his eyes? Would the glare, mixed with a little dust, have partially obscured his view? I’m not local so unsure, interested to know what locals think about that. Perhaps he hits SM with his vehicle (she does not die due to the collision but afterwards with intent, in order for LA to lay a murder charge). IMO

b) If “before and not allowed to drive”, perhaps it’s too early / embarrassing to call for help, do you think it’s a possible scenario that he would start the ~10km walk to where he is staying Yendon no 2? It’s a long walk, perhaps <2 hours for someone of his fitness, less if he felt up to a jog. If plausible, perhaps he met SM on foot and an altercation of some sort occurs. IMO

Or perhaps he was stopped by HWP “after” he crossed paths / hit / had altercation with SM; though one would expect there to have been damage to his car or been acting noticeably nervous, which perhaps would have made resulted in a more swift arrest. Also wonder whether LA would have been more specific when asking about a damaged vehicle if they already know the make/model. They might have even picked him up in the area days/weeks after, catching him trying to clean up his crime scene. IMO

Interesting article:

https://www.news.com.au/national/queensland/courts-law/skye-anne-wallis-and-karie-obrien-charged-with-murder-of-senior-constable-david-masters/news-story/cbc166bc86ec70e05b5562cb2ef2368f

I did not think someone could be charged with murder for a hit and run? This has most likely been covered earlier in the thread, but seems a very plausible explanation.

I do like everyone's Hollywood theories, but to me, these do not fit the profile of P.S.

Keep them rolling in though. I do like to read them.

 

[Dotta]

I don't understand your question. Why does anyone wait for a court date? because courts take this sort of time , and police take this sort of time, and a Barrister needs this sort of time. I mean, he already has had one court session. No delay there, he appeared, via TV in court at Ballarat, from the Remand Centre in Melbourne, this satisfies the process of Habeus Corpus, ie. to bring the prisoner to court, to determine if his custody is legal, which, apparently, the court was satisfied that it was. I don't understand what you mean by to wait.

I know that charges are sometimes dropped and ppl leave jails.

I even remember the UK case when a few men were charged of murder of a woman who....
was later found sound and safe - she simply wandered off from the place she was staying with the charged guys (probably drugs were involved).

I don't think Police have such slam dunk evidence of deliberate murder.

I guess all they have is PS's phone pinging at the very area where S's watch suggested her collapsing.

And maybe the accused's babbling to friends while drunk.

I'm not sure about evidence in his car.

JMO

 

[Nifty]

What sort of direct evidence would be needed to hammer down a murder charge without a body?

The accused confessing to the murder of SM

Video/CCTV/photos of the accused and SM

Evidence of a murder weapon, DNA (phone, watch, technical data etc with more evidence)

Star Witness coming forward with proof/ Voice recordings of the accused confessing



But it will be up to the jury (or judge if it's a bench trial) to determine how convincing it is.

The accused doesn't know what damming evidence the police could have

He knows without SM body it could be hard to prove murder and would be hoping for acquittal

So he's not talking,
If the police find SM body
That will be strong evidence against the accused

 

[BreakingNews]

Then, why to wait almost half a year for the next Court session?

Gives LE time to prepare a brief of evidence. Every detail for their case needs to be thoroughly sorted. This goes to the defence 2 weeks prior to Aug 8. Won't surprise me if it is then adjourned due to the amount of evidence the defence has to come to grips with. If PS pleads not guilty, there will be a hearing to determine if there is enough evidence. In Australia a Judge makes this decision. Then wait another year or so for a trial to start in the Supreme Court. If he pleads guilty, the case goes straight to sentencing. Waiting, waiting.

 

[Trooper]

I know that charges are sometimes dropped and ppl leave jails.

I even remember the UK case when a few men were charged of murder of a woman who....
was later found sound and safe - she simply wandered off from the place she was staying with the charged guys.

I don't think Police have such slam dunk evidence of deliberate murder.

I guess all they have is PS's phone pinging at the very area where S's watch suggested her collapsing.

And maybe the accused's babbling to friends while drunk.

I'm not sure about evidence in his car.

JMO

Welll. it would be nice if Mrs. Murphy would just wander on back. Along with Ruby. But I don't think that is going to happen.

I think VICPOL do , in fact, have such a piece of slam dunk evidence. I think this because they do not make these sort of outrageous claims in public, which is what VICPOL has done. Unless there is monumental , unarguable stuff to back it in with. And that 'stuff' has gone up the ladder, right up to the Police Commissioner before VICPOL made that press announcement. So we perhaps can agree to disagree on that point.

 

[Dotta]

Gives LE time to prepare a brief of evidence. Every detail for their case needs to be thoroughly sorted. This goes to the defence 2 weeks prior to Aug 8. Won't surprise me if it is then adjourned due to the amount of evidence the defence has to come to grips with. If PS pleads not guilty, there will be a hearing to determine if there is enough evidence. In Australia a Judge makes this decision. Then wait another year or so for a trial to start in the Supreme Court. If he pleads guilty, the case goes straight to sentencing. Waiting, waiting.

Thank you for informative answer
It makes sense.

I was simply surprised that if, as a poster suggested, Police have such explicit evidence of deliberate murder, the case should drag.

JMO

 

[Trooper]

Thank you for informative answer
It makes sense.

I was simply surprised that if, as a poster suggested, Police have such explicit evidence of deliberate murder, the case should drag.

JMO

The case is not dragging. The case is proceeding at it's own stately pace , exactly as any murder trial does , in Victoria, or anywhere in Australia. Justice must be seen to be done, and nothing must be done in haste, when haste is not conducive to the requirements of justice being met.

 

[Rocket333]

It's not just the murder charge that is 'hammered down'.. the fact that VICPOL was/is willing to publicly claim Mrs. Murphy as deceased was, to me, astonishing on it's own. It is not the usual way of how VICPOL goes around things, or, come to think on it, any other police force. Then to add that she was murdered.. not accidentally killed, not contributing to her own death in any way, but 'attacked ' and murdered.

Then, on top of all this, they state where it happened and when it happened, and who did it.. All these things, on their own are startling and off the surprising scale. Considering there is no body found, as yet. But the combination is a colossal claim, in anyone's estimation.

And so, Rocket, to your question. What does it take?... It would take more than a person saying it. More than ping from a tower, more than an eye witness. An eyewitness without backup of evidence is not enough. So . there has to be the kind of evidence, that identifies Mr Stephenson as the killer, and Mrs. Murphy as the victim. That should go without saying, but it is sometimes missed... Firmly identifies, no mistake, no possibility of a mistake, there is no room for the slightest error in this claim, that it is her that is dead, and it is him that killed her.

And this is where he did it, and this is when he did it. To me, that means visual evidence, with sound and a mechanism of time and date shown.

This is what I think . I cannot think of any other reason that would compel VICPOL to make the claims they have. VICPOL are not in the business of fairy story production, so..

Looking at the options for visual evidence of both parties together, with sound, and time and date stamping.

Phone - PS or another person holding it.
Go pro - PS would need to get in the frame
Dash cam -
Witness - watching & filming without being detected.

Any other ideas of how the incident could have been recorded?

 

[Trooper]

Just to compare on how long murder trials take to come to court..

In Germany.. . The average duration of first-instance proceedings before the German Regional Courts (Landgerichte), which handle the bulk of commercial disputes, is 13 months. The timing may vary depending on the complexity of the case and the individual judge's docket.

In the UK .. ( these are average times, any complication, months can be added on , these time frames apply to those who have their own barrister, not one appointed by the court. )

• Time between the sending of the case to Crown Court to the start of trial: 119 days
• Time between the start of the trial and the completion of the trial: 50 days

In France... In France, it was taking about 637 days for civil courts of first instance to resolve a pending case in 2020. According to the source, the European median was 237 days, or 400 days less. By comparison, the duration time in administrative courts of first instance was about 333 days.

 

[Trooper]

Looking at the options for visual evidence of both parties together, with sound, and time and date stamping.

Phone - PS or another person holding it.
Go pro - PS would need to get in the frame
Dash cam -
Witness - watching & filming without being detected.

Any other ideas of how the incident could have been recorded?

I can only guess that he did it himself. My reason for that belief is, Police have stated that he is the only one involved in this crime. I do not discount someone's drone, or as you say there, a witness filming and watching without being detected.. this is not an outrageous possibility, but to me, improbable. What would the circumstances be that someone would just stand there filming such a thing? I just don't know. Nothing should be discredited, but weight has to be apportioned with regard to probability..

Anyways, that's what I think at this time.

 

[Trooper]

Thanks Trooper and drsleuth…

Appreciate you putting the wait in perspective….

How do you both stay so patient…?!!!

Trooper… did you say YEARS??!!! Omg

No. I did not say years.

Although, I agree with Dr. Sleuth. Some times it has taken years.

 

[Minaka]

Welll. it would be nice if Mrs. Murphy would just wander on back. Along with Ruby. But I don't think that is going to happen.

I think VICPOL do , in fact, have such a piece of slam dunk evidence.

We are all searching for needles in haystacks, but after re-watching the original police press conference featuring MM, something caught my eye and ears.

When asked one month ago by the press if SM had "ever gone missing before" the police representative said after one second of closing her eyes ... 'ah not to our knowledge, no'. Interesting question to ask from the media, followed by another shortly after.

Family appeals for help to locate missing mother Samantha Murphy | 9 News Australia 8 mins 46 secs



This was the most sustained period of eye closure/blocking during the entire press conference. So it meant something. It if was a criminal, everyone would be claiming guilt, when it's a police officer, I'm sure the excuses will be incoming.

The reason I mention this, is because eye blocking is commonly used as a predictor to determine if someone is withholding the truth or is very uncomfortable with the topic.

I won't mention the second time she closed her eyes for almost the same duration. You can look at that for yourself after the question referenced in this post.

Cue thread number 9

edit: So, I guess a minority of us are wondering if there is the slightest chance SM and the accused could have orchestrated her disappearance. If that was the case, it would certainly explain the lack of evidence, it does not however explain the murder charge. Just another idea to throw into the mix.

As a new investigator/sleuth can anyone here reference any past cases that might be similar to what I'm suggesting?

 

[HoneyBunOne]

think VICPOL do , in fact, have such a piece of slam dunk evidence. I think this because they do not make these sort of outrageous claims in public, which is what VICPOL has done. Unless there is monumental , unarguable stuff to back it in with. And that 'stuff' has gone up the ladder, right up to the Police Commissioner before VICPOL made that press announcement. So we perhaps can agree to disagree on that point.

I agree. They made such bold claims, with such certainty that they must have some solid gold evidence.

Looking at the options for visual evidence of both parties together, with sound, and time and date stamping.

Phone - PS or another person holding it.
Go pro - PS would need to get in the frame
Dash cam -
Witness - watching & filming without being detected.

Any other ideas of how the incident could have been recorded?

And potential CCTV footage from the wooded area itself, given that trail cams were installed around there to stop illegal dumping of rubbish.

 

[Rumination1]

Quite possible, but a suspicious girlfriend (suspicious because of unaccounted times, thin stories, etc) would likely also check bf's phone for texts, photos, etc. I will not be at all surprised to learn that there are photos.

So with that theory she sees photos and calls it in

Police know she is then at risk of harm from him but they continue to live together ? How awful for her. Surely they would have swooped instantly ?

No , I think they cottoned onto him after review street cc tv as a person in that area at that time
Took two weeks to get their ducks in a line
When they did they found something in his car that incriminated him
That something was evidence of murder ( not manslaughter ) so I think it was his own car or phone log
Did his car have an insurance camera thing? If so it would have also recorded where he drove the body ?
So he didn’t move the body w his own car. I think he moved it by dirt bike .
He went home and got it cos the location is in the bush hence so hard to find
She’s in Mt clear imo

 

[Oona]

Looking at the options for visual evidence of both parties together, with sound, and time and date stamping.

Phone - PS or another person holding it.
Go pro - PS would need to get in the frame
Dash cam -
Witness - watching & filming without being detected.

Any other ideas of how the incident could have been recorded?

Depending on how the attack unfolded, Sam may have been able to record audio/video, take a photo or make a voice note recording on her phone or watch. These functions could be quickly accessed using Siri.

She may have not had time or opportunity to call or message for help but any recordings she made would be automatically saved to the cloud.
I don’t think it is likely that Sam had the opportunity but I suppose it is possible.

Another possibility is that the alleged perpetrator may have taken photos, even a selfie if he’s sick and twisted in that way, using Sam’s phone.
That would be pretty damning evidence……..
but also unlikely, in my opinion, as Apple devices quickly sync photos and videos with other devices using the same Apple ID….so any photos or videos from Sam’s phone would be available on an IPad or MacBook if Sam owned them.

 

[Nifty]

Police might have gotten the rego from Highway Patrol. There is a Highway Patrol charge against a “PS” listed in upcoming cases on the Magistrate’s Court of Vic site at 7.30am on the same day / place as “P.O.S” is appearing (at 8am). Obviously this may well be a completely different person, or be the same person and have occurred on a completely different date. IMO.

But it got me thinking, could it be possible that was picked up Highway Patrol Ballarat on Sunday morning? If so, it could put him in the vicinity of SM on the morning.

Some hypotheticals…

If he was picked up “before” he crossed paths with SM, he either would have a) been allowed to drive home (more likely if it was a speeding ticket, perhaps less likely if drug/alcohol affected), or b) be forced to leave his car/motorbike on the side of the road. IMO

a) If “before and allowed to drive”, perhaps he was distracted, adrenaline pumping after being picked up by HWP. Sunrise was at ~6.41am on the day SM went missing. Assuming he is driving east along Recreation Road, would the sun have been peeping over the tall trees around ~8am and shining straight into his eyes? Would the glare, mixed with a little dust, have partially obscured his view? I’m not local so unsure, interested to know what locals think about that. Perhaps he hits SM with his vehicle (she does not die due to the collision but afterwards with intent, in order for LA to lay a murder charge). IMO

b) If “before and not allowed to drive”, perhaps it’s too early / embarrassing to call for help, do you think it’s a possible scenario that he would start the ~10km walk to where he is staying Yendon no 2? It’s a long walk, perhaps <2 hours for someone of his fitness, less if he felt up to a jog. If plausible, perhaps he met SM on foot and an altercation of some sort occurs. IMO

Or perhaps he was stopped by HWP “after” he crossed paths / hit / had altercation with SM; though one would expect there to have been damage to his car or been acting noticeably nervous, which perhaps would have made resulted in a more swift arrest. Also wonder whether LA would have been more specific when asking about a damaged vehicle if they already know the make/model. They might have even picked him up in the area days/weeks after, catching him trying to clean up his crime scene. IMO

If it was the accused, he could have had SM in the back of his car, when he was pulled over

Driving somewhere to take her

 

[ProfCluezo]

Depending on how the attack unfolded, Sam may have been able to record audio/video, take a photo or make a voice note recording on her phone or watch. These functions could be quickly accessed using Siri.

She may have not had time or opportunity to call or message for help but any recordings she made would be automatically saved to the cloud.
I don’t think it is likely that Sam had the opportunity but I suppose it is possible.

Another possibility is that the alleged perpetrator may have taken photos, even a selfie if he’s sick and twisted in that way, using Sam’s phone.
That would be pretty damning evidence in my opinion.

Omg Oona!!! I hadn’t even considered the possibility PS may have used SMs phone to photograph or film her…!!! Perhaps that’s what happened if PS didn’t want to use his own phone (to potentially incriminate himself)… and perhaps (in his “bender” state), he may have thought “I can use her phone”… not considering at the time that any pics etc he might take might go straight to the cloud and be retrieved by police …. Omg… this could be it!! Especially if “face recognition” could still work…dead or alive so-to-speak…

… So, potentially, PS himself could have delivered, unwittingly, the kind of irrefutable “slam dunk”, “solid gold” evidence that Trooper has theorised, directly to police, via the cloud…. What a monumental error of obscene proportions if that is indeed the case…. !! Goodness, wouldn’t that be an irony of all ironies Trooper?? !! PS, caught, potentially, by the actions of his own sadism and arrogance?!!! You have repeatedly said, Trooper, that PS clearly made some kind of catastrophic error…. to be caught… in spite of no body…. Could this be it?? Or does anyone else have any other ideas Re the nature of this catastrophic error allegedly made by PS?

 

[Oona]

Omg Oona!!! I hadn’t even considered the possibility PS may have used SMs phone to photograph or film her…!!! Perhaps that’s what happened if PS didn’t want to use his own phone (to potentially incriminate himself)… and perhaps (in his “bender” state), he may have thought “I can use her phone”… not considering at the time that any pics etc he might take might go straight to the cloud and be retrieved by police …. Omg… this could be it!! Especially if “face recognition” could still work…dead or alive so-to-speak…

It would be shocking if true, but I think it is unlikely the photos wouldn’t have been discovered more quickly by family if Sam owned other Apple devices.

Perhaps, prof cluezo, a more likely catastrophic error by the alleged perpetrator would be making a recording himself, Snapchat, for example, is not as magically erasable as many people believe.

 

[Minaka]

Depending on how the attack unfolded, Sam may have been able to record audio/video, take a photo or make a voice note recording on her phone or watch. These functions could be quickly accessed using Siri.

Ok, let's try and get something clear here regarding recording media, photos, video or audio.

Let's hypothesize a scenario where you saw someone stealing from a shop, and they were running away.

First of all, you would have to work out what was going on.
Then you might think, that person could have been stealing.
Then you might think, oh I wished I could have recorded that because it could have helped. However they've already bolted by at least 50 metres.

By the time you've got your finger on the red record button, it's all over.

In any scenario regarding SM, I can't imagine anyone had the time or cognizance to do this.