Found Deceased Spain - Esther Dingley, from UK, missing in the Pyrenees, November 2020 #2

[RedHaus]

As I'm reading your thread, a whole different scenario has occurred to me.

On the 21st, she summitted the Pic. It was the first leg of her loop into France, and she was going to spend the night at the Refuge. She does, in fact, make it to the Refuge.

On the 22nd, while at the Refuge, she thinks better of doing the loop. After I did the math that she'd have had to bivouac, it would have been a very tall order to make her loop plan safely: a) because of the time of year; b)her incompatible experience & equipment (she was very much at her outer limits of these, and she was solo; c) she was leaving from the Spanish trailhead rather than from the Hospice in France. Perhaps she changed her mind about the loop because she was ambivalent about actually bivouac-ing, even though once before she had "gone beyond her comfort zone" and done it.

So, in lieu of doing the loop, she piddles around in the basin where the Refuge is, and just enjoys her surroundings. Remember, we're on the 22nd.

Then she heads UP towards the Port, with a view to leaving the trail and heading back to the Campervan.

She gets to the Port, and just because she really enjoyed it yesterday, thinks, "What the heck, might as well climb the Pic again." This would explain "late in the day."

Then, she takes the trail down from the Pic to the Port and back towards town.

********

Maybe she had an accident on the trail between the Port and Town? Not on the loop?

Good thinking RickshawFan! Your new theory fits some of the data well, especially the question of where ED spent the night of 11/21 after she summited Pic de S! But... we have the LE/SAR finding no trace of ED at the Refuge de V - although some here have pointed out the challenge of doing so accurately. And the encounter with the skier on 11/22 that we calculate was about a 1/2 hour below the Port de V and ED was ascending at that time. That may not fit your theory, right?

All that said, what really rings true to me in your new theory is that at some point ED aborted her loop trip because, like you say, she could have realized her limitations. And if she did that early on, like on 11/22, after summiting Pic de S a second time (I am dubious about that) or after getting to the Refuge de V.... or even after she stayed the night at the Refuge on 11/22, she could have headed back to Banasque late on 11/22 or the morning of 11/23.

One of my top theories, IMO, is that whatever happened to ED (accident, voluntary disappearance or hostile encounter with a human) happened between the Refuge de V and Banasque - as she headed back down to safety.

 

[Quietey]

As I'm reading your thread, a whole different scenario has occurred to me.

On the 21st, she summitted the Pic. It was the first leg of her loop into France, and she was going to spend the night at the Refuge. She does, in fact, make it to the Refuge.

On the 22nd, while at the Refuge, she thinks better of doing the loop. After I did the math that she'd have had to bivouac, it would have been a very tall order to make her loop plan safely: a) because of the time of year; b)her incompatible experience & equipment (she was very much at her outer limits of these, and she was solo; c) she was leaving from the Spanish trailhead rather than from the Hospice in France. Perhaps she changed her mind about the loop because she was ambivalent about actually bivouac-ing, even though once before she had "gone beyond her comfort zone" and done it.

So, in lieu of doing the loop, she piddles around in the basin where the Refuge is, and just enjoys her surroundings. Remember, we're on the 22nd.

Then she heads UP towards the Port, with a view to leaving the trail and heading back to the Campervan.

She gets to the Port, and just because she really enjoyed it yesterday, thinks, "What the heck, might as well climb the Pic again." This would explain "late in the day."

Then, she takes the trail down from the Pic to the Port and back towards town.

********

Maybe she had an accident on the trail between the Port and Town? Not on the loop?

Yes, I agree. From the Susan McLean thread - Susan was so close just but tucked away in an area off the paths. It could well be that something happened to Esther in an area where there there was seemingly a very low risk, particularly if another person was involved, or if she was ill, injured or disorientated. Such an area may be accessible at the current time.

 

[RedHaus]

Yes, I agree. From the Susan McLean thread - Susan was so close just but tucked away in an area off the paths. It could well be that something happened to Esther in an area where there there was seemingly a very low risk, particularly if another person was involved, or if she was ill, injured or disorientated. Such an area may be accessible at the current time.

...and ZaZara's early thinking back in thread #1 still haunts me - something to the effect that we'll probably find ED under trees. That means off-piste.

 

[Quietey]

Deleted - duplicate post

 

[RickshawFan]

Yes, I agree. From the Susan McLean thread - Susan was so close just but tucked away in an area off the paths. It could well be that something happened to Esther in an area where there there was seemingly a very low risk, particularly if another person was involved, or if she was ill, injured or disorientated. Such an area may be accessible at the current time.

I agree in part, but think such an area would be completely INACCESSIBLE at the current time due to snow.

 

[otto]

As I'm reading your thread, a whole different scenario has occurred to me.

On the 21st, she summitted the Pic. It was the first leg of her loop into France, and she was going to spend the night at the Refuge. She does, in fact, make it to the Refuge.

On the 22nd, while at the Refuge, she thinks better of doing the loop. Maybe she got lonely, scared, whatever.
And then there's reality (though emotions may have been a more deciding thing for her than logic; everyone's different.)....This is reality: After I did the math that she'd have had to bivouac, it would have been a very tall order to make her loop plan safely: a) because of the time of year; b)her incompatible experience & equipment (she was very much at her outer limits of these, and she was solo; c) she was leaving from the Spanish trailhead rather than from the Hospice in France.
Perhaps she changed her mind about the loop because she was ambivalent about actually bivouac-ing, even though once before she had "gone beyond her comfort zone" and done it.

So, in lieu of doing the loop, she piddles around in the basin where the Refuge is, and just enjoys her surroundings. Remember, we're on the 22nd.

Then she heads UP towards the Port, with a view to leaving the trail and heading back to the Campervan.

She gets to the Port, and just because she really enjoyed it yesterday, thinks, "What the heck, might as well climb the Pic again." This would explain "late in the day."

Then, she takes the trail down from the Pic to the Port and back towards town.

********

Maybe she had an accident on the trail between the Port and Town? Not on the loop?

A witness saw her on the trail in Spain approximately one hour from the summit and 30 minutes from the trail options near Port de Venasque. Therefore, we know she was not at the refuge prior to her Nov 22 summit photo.

 

[CoverMeCagney]

A witness saw her on the trail in Spain approximately one hour from the summit and 30 minutes from the trail options near Port de Venasque. Therefore, we know she was not at the refuge prior to her Nov 22 summit photo.

No, we don’t know that for certain. We have absolutely no idea where Esther slept on the night of 21st. Can’t rule anything out at the moment.

 

[RickshawFan]

Good thinking RickshawFan! Your new theory fits some of the data well, especially the question of where ED spent the night of 11/21 after she summited Pic de S! But... we have the LE/SAR finding no trace of ED at the Refuge de V - although some here have pointed out the challenge of doing so accurately. And the encounter with the skier on 11/22 that we calculate was about a 1/2 hour below the Port de V and ED was ascending at that time. That may not fit your theory, right?

Snipped for context focus. BBM for specific focus.

So, here's a speculation about her 22nd Pic summit using my new model.

She's coming UP from the Refuge having bailed from her trip. She gets to the Port and decides it's a lovely day and the light is lovely, why not ascend the Pic before heading back to town and the Campervan.
On the way up the Pic, she bumps into the Olympian and asks for fruit. He's shocked that she's hiking UP when it's so late in the day. But from her point of view, she's not especially late because she actually came up from the Refuge. It would indeed have been very late in the day to be hiking if she started out from town.
So, she comes across this guy maybe towards the bottom of the Pic trail. She thinks, "No prob, I'm fit, I'm experienced, I can go up the Pic and come back down quick quick. As a fact, I'll be heading back to town right behind him, maybe, oh, by half an hour. Plus, I did the same trip just yesterday. I can easily make it in daylight". Of course, we know he's an Olympian and very experienced in a relevant sense, but how would she know that?
So, our Olympian calculated right to be well within the margin of safety. But now, ED has made a plan that is outside the margin of safety or at least borderline; thinking you could nip the heels of an Olympian might be a very bad assumption that got thrown in the mix.
In her haste and confidence, there's an accident...

Does anyone know how far it is between the Port and the trailhead?

 

[RickshawFan]

A witness saw her on the trail in Spain approximately one hour from the summit and 30 minutes from the trail options near Port de Venasque. Therefore, we know she was not at the refuge prior to her Nov 22 summit photo.

He saw her between the Port and the Pic, though? That's what I'm basing the theory on. That she encountered him on the Pic trail. She came up from the Refuge late in the day.

 

[CoverMeCagney]

He saw her between the Port and the Pic, though? That's what I'm basing the theory on. That she encountered him on the Pic trail. She came up from the Refuge late in the day.

We don’t know where he saw her. Could have been between port and pic, could’ve been between road and pic, could’ve been part way up the pic. Unless/until we find that out, we can’t pinpoint where she might have been before that point. Obviously, the police and family will have known that information from the start, but it hasn’t been made public.

 

[otto]

No, we don’t know that for certain. We have absolutely no idea where Esther slept on the night of 21st. Can’t rule anything out at the moment.

If she was in Spain, 30 minutes downhill from the trail leading to the refuge or the summit, how could be in France?

 

[PeggyHenry]

Good thinking RickshawFan! Your new theory fits some of the data well, especially the question of where ED spent the night of 11/21 after she summited Pic de S! But... we have the LE/SAR finding no trace of ED at the Refuge de V - although some here have pointed out the challenge of doing so accurately. And the encounter with the skier on 11/22 that we calculate was about a 1/2 hour below the Port de V and ED was ascending at that time. That may not fit your theory, right?

All that said, what really rings true to me in your new theory is that at some point ED aborted her loop trip because, like you say, she could have realized her limitations. And if she did that early on, like on 11/22, after summiting Pic de S a second time (I am dubious about that) or after getting to the Refuge de V.... or even after she stayed the night at the Refuge on 11/22, she could have headed back to Banasque late on 11/22 or the morning of 11/23.

One of my top theories, IMO, is that whatever happened to ED (accident, voluntary disappearance or hostile encounter with a human) happened between the Refuge de V and Banasque - as she headed back down to safety.

I'm interested that you're dubious regarding Esther summiting the Pic de S twice. I am, really, too. Do you have an explanation for how a scenario arose whereby she only summited once?. Something to explain away second summit.

 

[otto]

Snipped for context focus. BBM for specific focus.

So, here's a speculation about her 22nd Pic summit using my new model.

She's coming UP from the Refuge having bailed from her trip. She gets to the Port and decides it's a lovely day and the light is lovely, why not ascend the Pic before heading back to town and the Campervan.
On the way up the Pic, she bumps into the Olympian and asks for fruit. He's shocked that she's hiking UP when it's so late in the day. But from her point of view, she's not especially late because she actually came up from the Refuge. It would indeed have been very late in the day to be hiking if she started out from town.

<respectfully snipped>

Does anyone know how far it is between the Port and the trailhead?

The olympian saw her in Spain around 3PM ascending the mountain. She was at the summit around 4PM.

That means she was in Spain 30 minutes away from making a decision to hike the summit or cross into France via Port de Venasque.

It looks like 5-10 minutes max from trail options to Port de Venasque..







OpenTopoMap - Topographische Karten aus OpenStreetMap

 

[CoverMeCagney]

If she was in Spain, 30 minutes downhill from the trail leading to the refuge or the summit, how could be in France?

Because Port de Venasque is literally the border line between Spain and France. Wherever it was that she saw the skier at 3pm, she was pretty close to the border.

Personally I agree with you and think it’s more likely she spent 21st on the Spanish side, but we can’t just assume that as being a fact.

 

[otto]

He saw her between the Port and the Pic, though? That's what I'm basing the theory on. That she encountered him on the Pic trail. She came up from the Refuge late in the day.

That is not what was published. They spoke around 3 PM. An hour later Esther sent a photo at the summit.

"An hour after the encounter, just before 4pm, Dingley reached the 8,983ft summit where she sent a selfie to partner Dan Colegate."​

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/13395949/missing-hiker-esther-dingley-olympic-skier/

 

[otto]

We don’t know where he saw her. Could have been between port and pic, could’ve been between road and pic, could’ve been part way up the pic. Unless/until we find that out, we can’t pinpoint where she might have been before that point. Obviously, the police and family will have known that information from the start, but it hasn’t been made public.

We can determine where she was based on when she was seen (3PM), where she was seen (in Spain) and how long it takes to hike from that location to the Port de Venasque / Summit trail options (30 minutes from witness).

She was witnessed one hour before she was at the summit, and it's a 30 minutes hike from the Port to the summit. Therefore, she was 30 minutes from the Port when she spoke with the witness.

 

[RedHaus]

We don’t know where he saw her. Could have been between port and pic, could’ve been between road and pic, could’ve been part way up the pic. Unless/until we find that out, we can’t pinpoint where she might have been before that point. Obviously, the police and family will have known that information from the start, but it hasn’t been made public.

Well, back in Thread #1, I believe, it may have been just otto and me, but some of us estimated the location of the skier / ED encounter based on the skier's published story.

If I recall correctly, at their 11/22 ~3pm encounter, ED was ascending and had about another hour of hiking to summit. That tied to her 4pm summit pic to DC (if she actually summited). And doing the time math, we figured that also meant their encounter would have been 1/2 hour hike below the Port de V. That was why some us started to wonder if ED ever summited the Pic on 11/22. Because she just as well could have hooked a right thru the Port de V at 3:30 or so.

So, IMO, here are the geographic / hiking time frame milestones to consider based on that thinking.

1. Pic de S trail is a 1.5 hr. hike up
2. Skier/ED were 1 hr. from summit
3. Port de V is 1/2 hr. from summit
4. Skier /ED were 1/2 hr. from Port

If those old assumptions are incorrect then lets course correct!

 

[CoverMeCagney]

Well, back in Thread #1, I believe, it may have been just otto and me, but some of us estimated the location of the skier / ED encounter based on the skier's published story.

If I recall correctly, at their 11/22 ~3pm encounter, ED was ascending and had about another hour of hiking to summit. That tied to her 4pm summit pic to DC (if she actually summited). And doing the time math, we figured that also meant their encounter would have been 1/2 hour hike below the Port de V. That was why some us started to wonder if ED ever summited the Pic on 11/22. Because she just as well could have hooked a right thru the Port de V at 3:30 or so.

So, IMO, here are the geographic / hiking time frame milestones to consider based on that thinking.

1. Pic de S trail is a 1.5 hr. hike up
2. Skier/ED were 1 hr. from summit
3. Port de V is 1/2 hr. from summit
4. Skier /ED were 1/2 hr. from Port

If those old assumptions are incorrect then lets course correct!

Ok, but my point was that we have no idea where she was in the 24 hours prior to seeing the skier, so cannot rule anywhere out, we do not know where she walked or slept. We don’t know which direction she came from. It’s just guesswork.

And I’ve no issue with guesswork, it’s something we have to do, but it cannot and should not be presented as fact.

 

[RickshawFan]

I'm interested that you're dubious regarding Esther summiting the Pic de S twice. I am, really, too. Do you have an explanation for how a scenario arose whereby she only summited once?. Something to explain away second summit.

I, too, was in the camp where she only summitted once. I'm trying to speculate how a second summit could logically have come about, since at least half our posters seem to think there were 2 summits.

We only know at what time photos were posted. Not what time they were taken.

 

[CoverMeCagney]

We can determine where she was based on when she was seen (3PM), where she was seen (in Spain) and how long it takes to hike from that location to the Port de Venasque / Summit trail options (30 minutes from witness).

She was witnessed one hour before she was at the summit, and it's a 30 minutes hike from the Port to the summit. Therefore, she was 30 minutes from the Port when she spoke with the witness.

I’m not refuting any of that, I’m refuting your statement “therefore we know she was not at the refuge prior to her Nov 22nd summit photo” because you stated it as fact, and it’s not.

Again, I agree with you that she probably hadn’t been at the refuge, but it’s still NOT fact.