The Verdict Waiting Room #2

Discussion in 'Allison Baden-Clay of Australia' started by marlywings, Jun 3, 2014.

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  1. Mrs G Norris

    Mrs G Norris Well-Known Member

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    I put the failure of the prosecution down to overconfidence. As observers of the case leading up to the trial we all convinced each other that Baez was a fool, and that the state of Florida had it in the bag, the prosecution lived in a similar bubble of confirmation bias. Based on what the jury saw I believe they made the right decision, I believe Casey killed Caylee, but is it possible that she drowned or met some other demise which was covered up? Yes it is, and that is reasonable doubt. I also think Ashton's behaviour in the courtroom, in particular during Baez's closing arguments harmed the prosecutions case, and may have even been the tipping point for the jury. Also there was so much prejudicial media coverage of the case before the trial that picking the jury had to be strict to the point where they had to say they hadn't watched all the coverage or formed any kind of opinion, which I can't even imagine would have been possible in Florida unless you lived off the grid in a cave. JMO.
     


  2. ollijack

    ollijack New Member

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    It's a really interesting idea. You think
    Well without coffee lol
     
  3. MadDoc

    MadDoc Member

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    That last sentence worries me a bit - aren't those similar questions they put to prospective jurors in the GBC case? Meaning we could have a similar kind of jury selection bias?
     
  4. MadDoc

    MadDoc Member

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    Hahaha...just wait until I've had my coffee! Although some would argue whether coffee cleans out the cobwebs of the brain, or just enables one to "do stupid things faster, with more energy"...:laughing:
     
  5. Mrs G Norris

    Mrs G Norris Well-Known Member

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    I think the laws in Australia regarding coverage before a trial protect us from a similar scenario to what happened in Florida, there is no comparison. Leading up the the CA trial there was nightly debate on multiple channels, we read her diary, her texts, her emails, we listened to all the police interviews of every player in the case, we poured over all the forensics etc etc etc .. naturally a jury should not have formed an opinion before seeing the evidence, but in this case that also doesn't have to mean that they weren't subjected to a barrage of nightly prejudicial material that can't be put aside.
     
  6. MadDoc

    MadDoc Member

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    Thank you for caring about Allison! It's touching to see the amount of interest in this case from all over the world.

    And great to hear about the sunflowers! Enjoy them. It's summer in the US right now, isn't it?
     
  7. MadDoc

    MadDoc Member

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    We did hear about a lot of that kind of stuff in the GBC case as well - maybe not the debate, but there was a lot of information about her diary, everybody's texts/emails/phone records, police interviews (or lack thereof), video of GBC making his (in)famous speech with sister by his side, a lot of material to take apart and dissect. The media did their best to be impartial and non-inflammatory, but there was a LOT of stuff that was made public in the bail hearings, committal and pre-trial hearings.

    Like the Casey Anthony case, I think it would be a minority of people in Queensland who would not have formed an opinion one way or the other.

    Maybe they should have brought in a jury from another state.
     
  8. jens

    jens Well-Known Member

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    Yes it is summer in the U.S at present so pretty hot down here in Texas. I'm still an Aussie at heart no matter how long I live away.
    Back to the topic of Allison, I cannot imagine how horrible it must be for her parents, sister and brother these past couple of years and this court case must be taking its toll on them. It is so terribly unfair and all because of the extreme selfishness of one person.
     
  9. amatteroftime

    amatteroftime New Member

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    The sad facts are that the majority of spouse murders, are confessed! A police officer told me that they put a lot of effort into getting the accused to confess by mostly bluffing about what they have, most people crack. The one's who do not, require a lot, a huge, amount of police work. Because they lived together, and shared item etc, it is always harder to prove as his finger prints etc are supposed to be there, if it was as stranger and a hair was found or a finger print, then that is a different story.
    But if you think about it, what sort of flood gate would be opened for people to murder their spouses , under the cover of dark?? I believe the judge has emphasised that the jury CAN convict on circumstantial evidence if there is no other reasonable alternative.
    The jury are probably just taking their time to come up with a very well thought out explanation to how they came to find "guilty" based on "no other reasonable circumstance" based on how they have been directed by the judge.
    The evidence, be it circumstantial , is vast!! When you rationally look at the evidence in the order it happened, the whole picture, it is overwhelming, but sadly, when the cops have to deal with someone who is smart and does not confess, then the onus is on the prosecution PROVING guilt instead of relying on " I did it ".

    The judge , if you listen carefully, has basically said " No one SAW it happen, but you are allowed to convict on circumstantial evidence, just go over all of it as there is no other reasonable possibility" This is what I got from it, but he has to be careful to not lead the jury, so he has deliberately made sure that they know that they are able to convict him of Murder in a " circumstantial case".

    Put it in simple terms for the obvious.

    If I bake a cake and there is only my family in the house, and I find it has disappeared, and see a chocolate crumbs on my husbands face, then it is fair for me to assume beyond reasonable doubt, that he ate the cake. ( im not suggesting it is that simple but when you break things down in simple terms you see a brighter light)

    I really believe they will find him guilty, but I think they are aware of the huge pressure and also of the chance of an "appeal" so they are making damn sure that they can explain how they came to their decision in a very thought out manner. Instead of " It was the vibe"

    Of course, this is just my personal belief based on all the evidence and events that I have been able to follow since his arrest.
     
  10. HoolyDooly

    HoolyDooly New Member

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    it is 8 a.m. Brisbane time. I wonder what today will bring
     
  11. Amee

    Amee Active Member

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    Clare Hunter ‏@clarephunter 42s

    Crowds at the Supreme Court as early as 4am awaiting #Badenclay verdict. Jury to continue to deliberate this morning @9NewsBrisbane
     
  12. BrissyLass

    BrissyLass New Member

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    A guilty verdict would be good :jail:

    But the longer this jury stays out and is undecided, the more i feel that slipping away I'm afraid
     
  13. Aliwonders

    Aliwonders New Member

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    4am!!! That seems a bit early!! Yes I wonder what today will bring. Hopefully the jury will come to an agreeable conclusion.
     
  14. Amee

    Amee Active Member

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    David Murray ‏@TheMurrayD 49s

    Day 21. Jury has been deliberating for about 19 hours, fourth day today #badenclay
     
  15. toe

    toe New Member

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    Stay positive everyone :loveyou:
     
  16. Freya1977

    Freya1977 Well-Known Member

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    Hey guys, I can't do any tweets today. Can someone else do them? Cheers. Let's hope we hear today..

    Sent from my GT-N5110 using Tapatalk
     
  17. Tigerlily75

    Tigerlily75 Well-Known Member

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    Strong gut feeling (for whatever that's worth!) verdict will be today ..
     
  18. Maigret

    Maigret New Member

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    Let's hope for an early guilty verdict today - real life is beckoning :)
     
  19. squizzey1

    squizzey1 Verified insider - Allison Baden-Clay case

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    Yep guilty before lunch , not sure what of but lets hope its murder
     
  20. Maigret

    Maigret New Member

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    Absolutely - I don't see manslaughter as a possibility really but if that's what the jury says it's better than not guilty
     
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