Ok, so normally when I hear about something like this, my reaction is to take it at face value. I mean she's caught on video being forced into a car, of course it's an abduction.
There's no reason to unnecessarily complicate what should be a straightforward case.
Occams Razor has always served me well.
But there's some nuance here.
You seem to have your prototypical low risk victim. She's employed at a school, comes from a good family, and has all the trappings of success.
The activity she's participating in does carry some risk, as god knows female joggers have been attacked, kidnapped, raped, and murdered.
The timing adds some risk too, as it's dark, and the area is probably relatively quiet that time of morning.
So it's totally reasonable to believe that this was a crime of opportunity, or even a premeditated crime committed by someone who knew her patterns.
You assume that based on the facts, you're going to be right almost every time.
So why am I not comfortable?
When I heard her phone was found "smashed," that struck me as odd. I absolutely wouldn't expect an abductor to do that, as his priority is getting away. All he cares about is that the phone is not traveling with him.
Could this "smashed" characterization have been a bad description, have been a result of a struggle, or involved the suspect throwing the phone from a moving vehicle? Of course.
But it got me thinking of the remote possibility that this was some sort of staged event, so I checked out her Facebook page to see if I could see any true crime interest.
There I saw that post where she references listening to the podcasts "up and vanished," and "serial."
Then I did something else, but I'm stopping here because I'm toting the line.
Stranger abductions are incredibly rare on the whole, and rarer still with Liza's victimology.
I still think that's the most likely scenario.
But there are things that bothered me initially, and things that have occurred since then that have given me some pause.
Right now I'd make a big bet, but I wouldn't go all in like I have in every single similar case I've followed.
How do I get there quickly?
Tomorrow the family gets in front of the cameras, as they always do in abduction cases. After all, it's the single most important thing they can do; keep the victim in the public eye.
A major press conference, or daily communication where reporters are able to ask questions.
If these things don't happen, then I have to assume they know something major we do not.
Then all bets are off.
www.foxnews.com
