Found Safe TN - Mary Catherine Elizabeth Thomas, 15, Maury County, 13 March 2017 #10

[midtoe47]

Thinking out loud...
1. Bag was left outside of Shoneys. We don't know if friend set bag outside or if it was stolen as they are not being cooperative.

2. Since friend said they were going west, TC may have been trying to cover basis and went south to throw off LE.

3. IMO Tad had this girl on an adventure. She was cooperative at 1st so he took her to a motel and changed appearances and did whatever -- (yuck). This may account for the time and detour.

4. Was seen at Walmart 3/15 looking rough and disorganized, didn't prepare as he was buying food 2 days in.

5. Don't think he's outside of US, she may present too many problems for him trying to cross borders.

6. There haven't been many credible sightings as news of her missing just really got jump-started this week with Walmart pics.

7. TC supposedly did research on previous kidnappings and saw they were in plain sight all the time (caught on video). No problem for him.

8. IMO he's not that smart. Researching something doesn't make you an expert.

9. If he's such an avid outdoorsman, why is there no record of him heading some Boy Scouts of America troop?

Now the word is out and his days are numbered.....

Quit while you are ahead (not really). We are all coming for you! Even your fellow campers are watching!

Sorry for long post, just ranting. Now, time to get away for awhile.



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[GigTu]

Thinking out loud...
7. TC supposedly did research on previous kidnappings and saw they were in plain sight all the time (caught on video). No problem for him.

I've never seen this claim, and if true it changes everything about what I have in my head. Link please.

 

[Deleted member 172065]

FOR NEWBIES. If you go to thread 9, post #35, you will find the most comprehensive info.

 

[Deleted member 155000]

Thinking out loud...
1. Bag was left outside of Shoneys. We don't know if friend set bag outside or if it was stolen as they are not being cooperative.

2. Since friend said they were going west, TC may have been trying to cover basis and went south to throw off LE.

3. IMO Tad had this girl on an adventure. She was cooperative at 1st so he took her to a motel and changed appearances and did whatever -- (yuck). This may account for the time and detour.

4. Was seen at Walmart 3/15 looking rough and disorganized, didn't prepare as he was buying food 2 days in.

5. Don't think he's outside of US, she may present too many problems for him trying to cross borders.

6. There haven't been many credible sightings as news of her missing just really got jump-started this week with Walmart pics.

7. TC supposedly did research on previous kidnappings and saw they were in plain sight all the time (caught on video). No problem for him.

8. IMO he's not that smart. Researching something doesn't make you an expert.

9. If he's such an avid outdoorsman, why is there no record of him heading some Boy Scouts of America troop?

Now the word is out and his days are numbered.....

Quit while you are ahead (not really). We are all coming for you! Even your fellow campers are watching!

Sorry for long post, just ranting. Now, time to get away for awhile.



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Where did you hear about #7? Link?


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[GigTu]

If they aren't in the Rogue, wouldn't LE want to let people know so they aren't on the lookout for the wrong vehicle?

If they figured out a new vehicle and caught the license plate, and had leads on that, maybe they wouldn't want HIM to be alerted? I don't know how LE thinks, I'm just theorizing.

 

[Kapua]

I did the same thing, I was sitting at the Philadelphia airport ( I don't believe they are traveling by airplanes, he's dumb but not that stupid) and couldn't help but to examine every older man walking with a younger lady.
I quickly realized how well they really could blend into a crowd. Everyday fathers travel around with their daughters, it's not uncommon at all. Everyday fathers buy their daughters clothes or personal products, it's not uncommon at all.

It goes to show just how vigilant we must be here if we want her found. We must spread her picture around as much as possible.

Yes, absolutely! I look at every car that goes by (I actually saw a silver Nissan Rogue yesterday) and when I go out, I look at everyone's faces. Yesterday, I saw three older gentlemen with goatees, and two older gentlemen with obviously dyed hair. I totally agree that fathers and daughters shopping together is not the slightest bit unusual. My own father took care of me on weekends when my mother was working and I went with him everywhere he went. We don't know where he is. We're all guessing. Nobody guessed Oklahoma City, so we aren't very accurate. We need to continue to spread the word - post flyers wherever you can, remind people on social media. They will be found. Every time I log in, I hope to read that they have been found.

 

[midtoe47]

Bess, regarding posting of TC researching previous kidnappings was something I read on WS a few threads back. I put "supposedly researched" as I don't recall exactly which thread it was in! Sorry for the confusion. I thought it was said at 1 of the TBI PC's.


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[JayLee#99]

I would really like to know exactly what they bought at Wal-Mart. This would tell us how prepared/unprepared he was. Also if they are camping or have other accommodations. I believe it is imperative that LE share this info. They have in the past and it made a huge difference.

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I agree. Even releasing the "brand name" of some of things they bought could be helpful. For instance knowing if one of them likes a particular brand of soda or coffee or chips, etc. and we see someone looking the same as them with the said items or buying those items, it may stick out more. People tend to be creatures of habit. Even on the run there is something, it may only be one thing, but we can't live without it. I get coffee from the same place every single day. If for some reason I don't make it in (sick or on vacation) they are ready to send out a search party looking for me. It's not really an addiction in the normal sense of a drug but I jokingly say I'm addicted to that specific coffee/flavor all the time. So, if I was on the run I may get "cranky" after a few days of not having my favorite coffee and go get one.


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[MsMtOlympus]

This jacka** does not have the financial resources, army of supporters, or geopolitical alliances that Osama Bin Laden had yet he's proving just as hard to find. This simply shouldn't be case. We keep saying he's no criminal mastermind and yet he's evaded capture for much longer than predicted. In desperation mode, I'm now thinking of alternate ways outside of traditional LE methods that fugitives are found.

I looked up the specifics on how bounty hunting works. It's a highly regulated industry and there are states (Tennessee is one of them) that require that a bail bondsman be associated. So I'm thinking a bounty hunter proper can't be hired in this particular instance. I know Duane Chapman aka Dog the Bounty Hunter was mentioned as someone who was going to help but in reality, I'm not so sure that he can. For example, when Chapman located Andrew Luster (Max Factor heir convicted of rape) in Mexico, Luster had already jumped his $1M bail. Also, regarding Mexico specifically, it's illegal to bounty hunt in that country which is why Chapman was arrested several years after his capture of Luster.

Then I looked up private investigation. This appears to be a more realistic route but questions still arise: who will pay for this costly service? Will the PI travel in order to find TC and ET and if so, are they free to investigate legally wherever they go? We don't have a region narrowed down so the PI would have to cast a wide net here.

Disclaimer: low on sleep and patience, please forgive if this post sounds a touch insane.

Sources:

http://people.howstuffworks.com/bounty-hunting1.htm

http://money.howstuffworks.com/private-investigator4.htm

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Andrew_Luster

 

[midtoe47]

Checking to verify now

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[michael.gartley]

Does anyone have the link handy that someone did all the tweets and Instagrams in a shareable file on the internet for us?

If somebody could repost that, much appreciated.

:tyou:

Here are two ASCII, searchable compilations of all Instagram post time stamps and 'captions' (doesn't include other users comments or likes)

VERY IMPORTANT: The time stamps are UTC (same as GMT), therefore you will need to subtract 6 hours for Columbia, TN local standard time before March 12 and then subtract 5 hours for Columbia, TN local daylight savings adjusted time March 12th and beyond.

Tad Cummins:
https://pastebin.com/dASiFhvP

Elizabeth Thomas:
https://pastebin.com/M2gHaz89

 

[Kapua]

Right. But even small tents take up space when stored, and would be a huge hindrance if they needed to beat feet quickly. That's why I suggested that, if they are camping, and needed to extend the "living space", they are probably using a fly (basically a tarp deal) off the back of the Nissan. Easier to take down quickly, and takes up far less space than a tent .Of course, all of this would depend on rational, experienced planning, and I am not at all sure that TC is as smart as he thinks he is in terms of really "roughing it".

Thank you for your observations regarding camping and preparedness. I agree with you and the poster last night who suggested that he hadn't planned as well as we are giving him credit for. IMHO, his ability to stay ahead of the law is based mostly on not staying in any one place for very long and blending into the crowd, which they do very well. Elizabeth Smart's abductor was very distinctive-looking and she was not found for 9 months. TC won't last that long exactly because he's not used to "roughing it". And he's not doing it because he wants to, he's camping because it's the best way to avoid being noticed.

 

[Kabelle]

Have we been able to verify any email accounts for either one of them?


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[MsMtOlympus]

Here are two ASCII, searchable compilations of all Instagram post time stamps and 'captions' (doesn't include other users comments or likes)

VERY IMPORTANT: The time stamps are UTC (same as GMT), therefore you will need to subtract 6 hours for Columbia, TN local standard time before March 12 and then subtract 5 hours for Columbia, TN local daylight savings adjusted time March 12th and beyond.

Tad Cummins:
https://pastebin.com/dASiFhvP

Elizabeth Thomas:
https://pastebin.com/M2gHaz89

Excellent, thank you!!

 

[EA18G]

If they tried to change their looks, it didn't work. They look exactly like their previous photos. ET stands out especially in that same plaid shirt/jacket.

 

[EA18G]

Data in pastebin...how do we know they sent that to each other? Has someone verified that they are the only ones that follow the others account? TC's account looks like something that would be posted for his whole class if they want to look at it everyday.

 

[Kapua]

I am one of the few who think he's still driving the Rogue. IMHO, you need reliable transportation when you are on the run and TC has a late model, reliable vehicle that blends in well with all of the other cars on the road. I doubt that he's traded it for a beater or something that is going to leave them stranded.

 

[eryn.a.huff]

Woke up this morning to see the surveillance video from Oklahoma City on my local news in Iowa with the reporter telling people to keep an eye out for them. They're probably doing this in most states but I'm wondering if LE maybe thinks they switched directions and went north. They could be anywhere at this point


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[pegs]

I am one of the few who think he's still driving the Rogue. IMHO, you need reliable transportation when you are on the run and TC has a late model, reliable vehicle that blends in well with all of the other cars on the road. I doubt that he's traded it for a beater or something that is going to leave them stranded.

I agree with you. I think he is driving the Rogue because it is his and he would want to hang onto his property. I suspect the news of the divorce is driving him nutso. He would probably be very worried that JC might get something that he thinks is his.

I think when LE catches up to them it will be surprising how little TC really knew about life on the run. He is IMO the classical blow-hard who dazzles the young and less cynical with stories of his survival ability etc. when in reality he is really at home in a cushy chair with snacks in front of the TV watching other real survivalists.

 

[Deleted member 155000]

I get why we want to say he's not calculated or well planned and is just a lucky, bumbling fool or a classic blowhard. Believe me I do. I am no fan myself.

But the fact is he has outsmarted LE and a country of searchers for more than 2 weeks now. I don't picture him having charts and maps pinned to a wall, or anything. But I think he had a general plan for getting out of dodge before the search began...and for settling in somewhere remote.


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