TRIAL OF CHAD DAYBELL CHARGED WITH MURDER OF JJ VALLOW, TYLEE RYAN AND TAMMY DAYBELL #6

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wow.
I have really learned something today. Never ever heard of sunk cost fallacy.
Is it a thing that many DO understand???????
There is a large field of study about human behavioural biases. Since the world and life is so complex our brains have natural 'short-cuts' that help us handle it all. We would 'drown' in information if we didn't. These biases aren't good or bad, since they help us survive. However it is helpful to understand what they are since they can cause us to take actions that are against our best outcome.

I worked in the investment field and I saw the impact of these normal human biases every day. (There is an entire field of study called behavioral finance.) Some examples of these normal human biases include:
- confirmation bias: we look for information that supports our views.
- herd mentality: everyone else around me believes that so it must be true. (imagine being on this forum and initially believing Chad is guilty. The pressure is immense to conform.)
- overconfidence bias: "I know/understand information or am better than most people." (e.g. 80% of drivers rate themselves as above average.)
- hindsight bias: "I knew that was going to happen!" (of course we ignore all of the times where we had a niggling feeling and it didn't come to pass.)
- loss aversion (sunk-cost fallacy): I've already invested this much cost/effort into this so I should just keep going (even if it will end up in losing more money or a poor outcome)

etc., etc.
These biases impact our lives in many, many ways, whether on a project, in politics, or in money matters.
 
He was a truck driver.

I don't know if this was true right at the time he quit, but, comically, he drove a truck carrying porta-potties.

Truck drivers, BTW, are high risk for pulmonary embolisms, because the sitting contributes to the clotting.

MOO
had a ha ha reaction to your post..........

And comically, he was also a standup comedian!!!!
 
You may be right about it being planned before they left — it did seem that LVD wanted to be out of town for the first attempt so maybe that was why she wanted to be gone on the 2nd attempt as well. But still MBP’s statement that AC was supposed to go to Hawaii with them until the last minute makes me think some part of it was not planned or that something caused the plan to be pushed up if AC was supposed to go to Hawaii with them.

And I get what you’re saying about TD perhaps knowing about them when CV contacted her or at least attempted to - but we don’t really know if she saw his email or if she believed it if she did. But CD & LVD were being quite careless about their affair in public by the latter part of Sept and perhaps someone saw them at the BYUI campus or something and told her - maybe she saw them herself. Maybe she did get CV’s email and did believe it but was waiting to get proof and maybe that pic was the proof…

Or maybe it was a pic she snapped of her attacker(s) that night.

It’s another detail that we may never know - just as what was the last minute thing that changed AC’s planned trip to Hawaii with LVD & MBP.

I really wish that AC was still alive. I suspect that he would be singing like a bird and we would get all the answers. And I suspect that it would be a lot more direct involvement of CD & LVD in all the murders than just the planning and him carrying them out. I think he helped in all of them but I don’t think he did any one of them alone - and that includes CV and JR as well as Tylee & JJ & TD. I wish I knew someone who could text thru the veil like CD so we could get those answers as well as find out what really happened to AC.

Good review of some of those outstanding questions.
In your second paragraph talking about Tammy, I am remembering one tidbit early on, when co-workers really felt she was really "down" the day before she was murdered. Did she know? Did she confront? WAS the TD death plan moved up?
I am always so sad about that... that her last day of life might have been full of forlorn.
I do kindof agree regarding Alex's role. BUT he was such a programmed soldier, he was still highly instrumental in all things Cd and Lv.
And as to your last sentence.... THANKS for the giggle
 
And I, agree and disagree.

I believe the doctrine (the religion) IS the culture, and cannot be separated.

This article is relatively new, and discusses in depth how the Daybell-Vallow case, as part of a much larger fringe LDS conglomerate. There are a number of cases/people who "used" the doctrine/culture to perform criminal acts.
The Daybell-Vallow case is exceptionally heinous, thus it stands out independently, as such a vile crime.

But what about the underage sexual grooming cases, kidnapping cases, or rabid MLS scams. Are they not vile too?.

All LDS offshoots started with "LDS prothletising, turning to false prophets.


"nothing about their story ends until the wider LDS culture stops casting the pair aside as fringe freaks of the faith, but extremists who were coddled in their midst"
Note:

And I quote and value your statement
But I am only one person, speaking from my own experiences, so MOO".
I am not Mormon. Members of my immediate family are. And my long term next door neighbor is direct lineage of one of the original powerful Danish families who were part of Joseph Smith's expansion to Europe.
I tried to clarify, and think I failed, about what I meant about culture which was how being in a Mormon community in, say, Utah, would present to me, an outsider. That's why I mentioned polite, good work ethic, clean and safe communities, old school stuff (prepping, canning, rainy day concerns, etc). Inside - and I consider LDS a cult in and of itself - is another matter and an outsider, even living in Salt Lake City, would never see the inner, religious culture. I don't view Mormons as evil or a threat. I would feel far safer in Utah than in Baltimore, NYC, SF, Portland, Chicago, Philly and a bunch of other US locations where filth, violence, theft, outlandish behavior, bums, people doing and selling drugs on the streets and rampant crime are accepted as completely normal.
 
There is a large field of study about human behavioural biases. Since the world and life is so complex our brains have natural 'short-cuts' that help us handle it all. We would 'drown' in information if we didn't. These biases aren't good or bad, since they help us survive. However it is helpful to understand what they are since they can cause us to take actions that are against our best outcome.

I worked in the investment field and I saw the impact of these normal human biases every day. (There is an entire field of study called behavioral finance.) Some examples of these normal human biases include:
- confirmation bias: we look for information that supports our views.
- herd mentality: everyone else around me believes that so it must be true. (imagine being on this forum and initially believing Chad is guilty. The pressure is immense to conform.)
- overconfidence bias: "I know/understand information or am better than most people." (e.g. 80% of drivers rate themselves as above average.)
- hindsight bias: "I knew that was going to happen!" (of course we ignore all of the times where we had a niggling feeling and it didn't come to pass.)
- loss aversion (sunk-cost fallacy): I've already invested this much cost/effort into this so I should just keep going (even if it will end up in losing more money or a poor outcome)

etc., etc.
These biases impact our lives in many, many ways, whether on a project, in politics, or in money matters.
Thanks, Interesting information.

You were in investments, so what is the bias for my little personal statement, below?

I was trying to do some investing and getting my kids involved to think about saving, investing, studying about it. So this was in the later 90s. So one of my kids ended up being very financial literate, rather conservative, watching her spending, saving and investments carefully. The other is ok, but is not good on long range intvesting at all anymore.
And now, I do NOTHING and know nothing... just resting on knowledge that my financial investor will keep me safe.
(my post probably should be snipped...but I just like this little one time side topic)
 
had a ha ha reaction to your post..........

And comically, he was also a standup comedian!!!!
Did you ever see that video with the woman who was a friend of Alex and fellow comedian? She was really close to him and liked/loved him. I think if I had met him, I would have instantly liked him. How scary is that when it comes to what we can assess in another person?
 
I tried to clarify, and think I failed, about what I meant about culture which was how being in a Mormon community in, say, Utah, would present to me, an outsider. That's why I mentioned polite, good work ethic, clean and safe communities, old school stuff (prepping, canning, rainy day concerns, etc). Inside - and I consider LDS a cult in and of itself - is another matter and an outsider, even living in Salt Lake City, would never see the inner, religious culture. I don't view Mormons as evil or a threat. I would feel far safer in Utah than in Baltimore, NYC, SF, Portland, Chicago, Philly and a bunch of other US locations where filth, violence, theft, outlandish behavior, bums, people doing and selling drugs on the streets and rampant crime are accepted as completely normal.
Of course all moo, but my sharing this does touch on the Daybells.so keep reading. ha ha ha
i'll just comment and share a tiny bit of my perspective. And it really isn't about the LDS religion, which I do strongly believe is the LDS Corporation.
Decades ago, when my brother converted to LDS, he was living on the East Coast. His work with a huge US corporation brought him in contact with a massive number of authors, speakers, motivation specialists who were hired by companies and corporations for educational and leadership purposes.
At this time, his ward was very small in NJ of all places. His wife was a divorced woman with 6 children from Utah. They were introduced ..somehow.. by a mutual friend in that training network. She moved to NJ, they were quite devout, but more quieltly given the non-Mormon environment.
My brother semi-retired to an LDS stronghold in Gilbert AZ. They have loved their move to AZ, and certainly remain as devout. Nothing, nothing comes before their dedication to the church. And when I visit, nothing in the operating culture can be altered. I always stay in a hotel or air bnb. Our times are great, but it is just too hard to stay in the household. He and his wife are both willing to talk to me about the underlying problems with some of the kids,because they know I really care and feel highly empathetic....but they are still never discussed in the open, public, sm, etc.
They do absolutely nothing not affiliated with the Church. Parties, activities, events, travelling to destinations, or cruises. 100%.
I love my brother to bits, nothing will stop that ever......but we have had our spells when we have to stop our private conversations. And when things are back to great with us, I still know to never discuss the things that i wish I could talk to him about.
We have talked about the Daybell case..... Lori lived in Gilbert for petes sake. Bottom line... it is all so despicable but has nothing to do with the church
 
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Did you ever see that video with the woman who was a friend of Alex and fellow comedian? She was really close to him and liked/loved him. I think if I had met him, I would have instantly liked him. How scary is that when it comes to whai t we can assess in another person?
I think really early on....we had other folks out there who felt the same about Alex....nice guy.
 
Thanks, Interesting information.

You were in investments, so what is the bias for my little personal statement, below?

I was trying to do some investing and getting my kids involved to think about saving, investing, studying about it. So this was in the later 90s. So one of my kids ended up being very financial literate, rather conservative, watching her spending, saving and investments carefully. The other is ok, but is not good on long range intvesting at all anymore.
And now, I do NOTHING and know nothing... just resting on knowledge that my financial investor will keep me safe.
(my post probably should be snipped...but I just like this little one time side topic)
I won't give specific investment advice here (or elsewhere) for obvious reasons.
But I will say that the first child you mentioned is head and shoulders above most people. Most people believe that their financial advisor will find them the next hot stock. Overconfidence.
Be balanced/diversified. Be long term. Don't be about hot stocks.


But much of this applies to these cases. People are over confident. They succumb to herd mentality. They don't want to cut their losses. They get sucked in.
 
I am a member of the Church.

It's not about the doctrine or even the culture of the church (yes, those are two separate things). It's about the personal choices of its members (or those who claim membership). As has been pointed out previously, all the victims in this case - Charles, Brandon, JJ, Tylee, and Tammy - were all faithful members of the church, fully living in harmony with its doctrines or teachings. It was the personal choices of certain individuals, who clearly were not living in accordance to the gospel of Jesus Christ, and who were on the high road to apostasy, who subsequently broke the laws of God and of man by committing these heinous crimes.

The same goes for people in every religion, or even lack of religion. There are good Muslims and bad Muslims. Devout Catholics and not so righteous ones. Faithful Hindus and evil Hindus. Honest Agnostics and dishonest ones. Upright Baptists and those who are deplorable. I could go on ad nauseum.

The one common distinguishing factor between those we might term 'good' [insert any other similar word] and 'evil' [insert any other related word] is that of personal choice. Heck, we even see this same phenomenon in every rational being - the struggle within one's self whether to make good choices, or whether to make baser ones.

I would like to think that most churches or religions are trying to help their members become better people, and to war against the more corrupt aspects of human nature. And yet, strangely enough, it is those corrupt elements which will take that which is good and pervert it to their own ends. Does that make the church or religion corrupt? Not necessarily. It again comes down to the individual choices of people within that church or religion.

I can personally testify that The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints has helped me to more fully follow my Savior, Jesus Christ. I have personally made poor choices throughout my life, and still do, but the Church has given me the doctrine, teachings, and tools necessary to repent and make the needed changes to become more like Him whom I love - Jesus Christ.

Just one person's personal belief.
What a great post!
Thank you.

I have different views on some of this than you do, but my views aren't necessarily better.
I am an atheist. I have long believed that we all share this planet and should work together for the better of all humans, here and now.
I totally agree that there are good and bad LDS/Catholics/Hindus/Muslims/agnostics/atheists, etc. We are all people.

One thing I think about though is that people in some religions, including LDS, are discouraged from reading about dissenting or different views. Believers are encouraged to 'simply believe' in the doctrine. (Of course I'm likely misinterpreting this!) Is it possible that believers, since they are supposed to have 'faith' and not worry about the specifics, that they might be more susceptible to grifters? Are they more susceptible to false prophets?

I'm asking this as a non-believer. I just don't know. And I'm not implying that being a non-believer is better, since many religions provide a wonderful 'structure' for society in terms of belief.
 
Of course all moo, but my sharing this does touch on the Daybells.so keep reading. ha ha ha
i'll just comment and share a tiny bit of my perspective. And it really isn't about the LDS religion, which I do strongly believe is the LDS Corporation.
Decades ago, when my brother converted to LDS, he was living on the East Coast. His work with a huge US corporation brought him in contact with a massive number of authors, speakers, motivation specialists who were hired by companies and corporations for educational and leadership purposes.
At this time, his ward was very small in NJ of all places. His wife was a divorced woman with 6 children from Utah. They were introduced ..somehow.. by a mutual friend in that training network. She moved to NJ, they were quite devout, but more quieltly given the non-Mormon environment.
My brother semi-retired to an LDS stronghold in Gilbert AZ. They have loved their move to AZ, and certainly remain as devout. Nothing, nothing comes before their dedication to the church. And when I visit, nothing in the operating culture can be altered. I always stay in a hotel or air bnb. Our times are great, but it is just too hard to stay in the household. He and his wife are both willing to talk to me about the underlying problems with some of the kids,because they know I really care and feel highly empathetic....but they are still never discussed in the open, public, sm, etc.
They do absolutely nothing not affiliated with the Church. Parties, activities, events, travelling to destinations, or cruises. 100%.
I love my brother to bits, nothing will stop that ever......but we have had our spells when we have to stop our private conversations. And when things are back to great with us, I still know to never discuss the things that i wish I could talk to him about.
We have talked about the Daybell case..... Lori lived in Gilbert for petes sake. Bottom line... it is all so despicable but has nothing to do with the church
Thanks so much for sharing this. It is eye-opening to me.
 
Of course all moo, but my sharing this does touch on the Daybells.so keep reading. ha ha ha
i'll just comment and share a tiny bit of my perspective. And it really isn't about the LDS religion, which I do strongly believe is the LDS Corporation.
Decades ago, when my brother converted to LDS, he was living on the East Coast. His work with a huge US corporation brought him in contact with a massive number of authors, speakers, motivation specialists who were hired by companies and corporations for educational and leadership purposes.
At this time, his ward was very small in NJ of all places. His wife was a divorced woman with 6 children from Utah. They were introduced ..somehow.. by a mutual friend in that training network. She moved to NJ, they were quite devout, but more quieltly given the non-Mormon environment.
My brother semi-retired to an LDS stronghold in Gilbert AZ. They have loved their move to AZ, and certainly remain as devout. Nothing, nothing comes before their dedication to the church. And when I visit, nothing in the operating culture can be altered. I always stay in a hotel or air bnb. Our times are great, but it is just too hard to stay in the household. He and his wife are both willing to talk to me about the underlying problems with some of the kids....but they are still never discussed in public, sm, etc.
They do absolutely nothing not affiliated with the Church. Parties, activities, events, travelling to destinations, or cruises. 100%.
I love my brother to bits, nothing will stop that ever......but we have had our spells when we have to stop our private conversations. And when things are back to great with us, I still know to never discuss the things that i wish I could talk to him about.
We have talked about the Daybell case..... Lori lived in Gilbert for petes sake. Bottom line... it is all so despicable but has nothing to do with the church
So many religions (talking man made) have things that are repulsive to me so LDS isn't that much different in that regard but where they are different is that they're more like a secret society and it's that that I think makes them cult-y (I revise my previous statement about them being an actual cult because anyone can leave LDS, unlike Scientology where they'll hunt you down). I'll reiterate that when I watched some videos secretly recorded of Mormon ceremonies, the similarity to Freemasonry was striking. Both seem related to Kaballah, as well and, I think (you may know) they have some belief about the 12 tribes of Israel having come to America. Secret societies create an us-them/insider-outsider mindset and that is culty or even cult. I don't like organizations, institutions or groups because they're all like the matrix with made up realities and groupthink and I see absolutely nothing to with "God" in that.
 
So many religions (talking man made) have things that are repulsive to me so LDS isn't that much different in that regard but where they are different is that they're more like a secret society and it's that that I think makes them cult-y (I revise my previous statement about them being an actual cult because anyone can leave LDS, unlike Scientology where they'll hunt you down). I'll reiterate that when I watched some videos secretly recorded of Mormon ceremonies, the similarity to Freemasonry was striking. Both seem related to Kaballah, as well and, I think (you may know) they have some belief about the 12 tribes of Israel having come to America. Secret societies create an us-them/insider-outsider mindset and that is culty or even cult. I don't like organizations, institutions or groups because they're all like the matrix with made up realities and groupthink and I see absolutely nothing to with "God" in that.

I have truly truly enjoyed watching Mormon Stories podcasts, since I got so wrapped up in the Daybell case. Some are just so fruitful. So many folks have trouble making the transition out of the church, and many transition back into the Church. I even got my brother to watch one particular episode, and I think he was truly enlighted.
 
The 2021 48 Hours interview with the Daybell children


It is a little disturbing to watch, given the current testimony by the children, witnesses around Tammy's death and funeral, and the police cruiser video of Emma.

I remember when I first watched that show, noting that only Leah seemed to cry or show any emotion.

I just rewatched it, and noticed that Emma looked more angry than I recalled.

MOO
 
I keep thinking about the stop at Buckeroo Bill’s (which I believe we’ve learned was closed) in West Yellowstone on the way home from the trip into Yellowstone. Did they stop for milkshakes, and then go to another place to get them?

And then, Garth bringing home dinner for the three of them (Chad, Tammy, and Garth) on the night Tammy died. I’m curious whether a milkshake was ordered and also whether it was in fact Chad who’d suggested McDonald’s for dinner that night, since I believe the autopsy revealed Tammy had potatoes and peanuts, but not a cheeseburger in her stomach when she died). Would a liquid milkshake show up like solid food would?

Were both Tylee and Tammy fed some kind of sedative in a milkshake (ETA: to reduce ability to resist) before they were killed by some manual means? It just seems so coincidental to me that there was a stop for fast food before each of their deaths.
 
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