Here is a lengthy post about the timeline of the suspect's movements inside the church. The summary is, that we end up with a rather tight timeline as opposed to think the perp had all the time in the world..(or so it apprears..)
Timeline (MPD updated video, MPD timestamped short video, GS corrected sequence video)
· NE camera picks up suspect emerging from room 8 (Connection Café) entering N hallway @ 3:50am
· Walks down N hallway going W
And we should assume SP checks out room 6 which is the last room on that hallway going W, after the kitchen.
· Proceeds into W hallway going S
And we should assume SP checks out rooms 5 and 4 which would be the first rooms they come to as they proceed S after turning left onto the W hallway. Then after room 4 they would have gotten to the main entrance. I would expect them to turn right in that foyer and down in that corner on their right is the entrance to room 3 which is the kids playground room known as Kelsey’s Place. Then if they stick to the perimeter they’re going to have to zig zag around that enclosure containing the inner and outer doors, which would then put them in the other corner of the foyer where the Cub Corner alcove is. We should assume they go into that alcove and open that door into Cub Corner (room 2).
· SW camera picks up suspect @ some point while moving S
· Opens door of room 2 (cub room) and enters/returns
Presumably SP did not traverse the inside of Cub corner room 2; otherwise we would have seen them coming out of the other door. So SP had to have exited the Cub Corner door back into the foyer, then proceeded back into the W hallway traveling S. Then opens up and looks into the other room 2 door, perhaps not realizing that it is the same big room.
· Tries to unsuccessfully open Room 1 (janitorial) for app 30 secs.
There are several points in the room 1 sequence in which the video freezes/skips. I don’t know if that reflects much lost time or if it’s insignificant?
· SE camera picks up suspect traversing into S hallway @ 3:58 29s going E.
· Opens up double dutch doors of room 21 (nursery), looks into room
· Stops at room 20 (Xerox room)
· Camera picks him up approaching from E end of the S hallway moving W
· Suspect enters Auditorium.
We don’t know for sure that SP entered the auditorium. We only know they stepped out of sight into the alcove. They might have opened the door and not entered. They might have entered at a different door. Or not at all.
· NE Camera picks up suspect exiting room 10 (youth group)
· Suspect possibly hammers vertical window of room 9 (storage room) and seems to enter room, 18 sec
And as you noted, my theory is room 10 and room 9 occurred after your bullet point “Stops at room 20.” The rooms he would have passed inbetween those timeline events would be room 19 (suite of offices), room 18 (also an office, accessible from within the suite), rooms 17 and 16 which I THINK are also accessible from within the suite). And room 15 is last on that hall. SP then would have turned N up the E hall; on their right they would pass rooms 13, 12 and 11. Then they would have entered room 10 before exiting it from the other door that we see on the video. And after room 9, as they traversed S they would have still had room 14 down at the end before turning back W on the S hall and arriving back at the point around the offices where they “pop back up” on the video prior to the auditorium. This is all ASSUMING I’m correct about the video being out of sequence; I have to allow that I can’t be 100% sure.)
Hallway lengths (according to /WS and GS/WS
102’ from middle of NW hallway to middle of NE hallway
102’ from middle of SW Hallway to middle SE Hallway
128’ from middle of NE Hallway to middle of SE Hallway
128’ from middle of SW Hallway to middle of SE Hallway
1. Total linear feet: 460 feet
2. App. Feet per s walking averages 4.6 feet per second
I think that averages out to around 3 mph/correct? That’s going at a pretty good clip. If this person is around 5’5” with short legs (the average woman’s stride is 26 inches according to an Arizona State study), and they’re weighted down with gear, and if you’re right that this person has size 7 feet but size 17 shoes, then can they really manage to average 3 mph? I don’t know that they can’t; I’m just raising the question.
3. Total of app. 100 s for one time around the church (460 linear feet), nonstop walking, no stopping
4. Walking the 4 Hallways without stopping:
N Hallway - app. 22.2 seconds
W Hallway – app.27.7 seconds
If you watch the 5th anniversary video on my YT channel in which we do a virtual tour inside the church, the guy takes about 50 secs to get from the SW entrance to where he turns the corner at the NW end. He is admittedly strolling and not striding, but it might be worth taking a look at.
S Hallway - app. 22.2 seconds
E Hallway - app. 27,7 seconds
We know it took the suspect 8 min and 29 secs to get from exiting room 8 in the N Hallway moving counter clockwise to traversing from W to S Hallway, while checking out/ visibly entering room2 and trying to open room 1. And also, as I said, presumably also checking out 6, 5, 4, Kelsey’s Place and the foyer.
He then opens up at least one more room in the S Hallway (room 20) and disappears from the view.
He is visible again approaching from an Easterly direction moving towards West and entering the Auditorium via double doors located at the SW corner of the inside of the building. Again, we don’t know that he actually entered. He might have entered at the entrance he passed after room 14 and turning back up the S hallway. He might have peeked in or he might have entered at that entrance and walked around and then come out the same exit.
Last time we see the suspect is in the East Hallway exiting from room10 and breaking into room 9, which is right across from room 10.
Calculated time from emerging time (3:50am according to MPD) to approximate time of when MB enters the church through S Main Entrance(4:18am according to MPD):
· 8min 29secs from exiting room 8 to middle of W and S Hallway (includes stop at room 1, app. 30 seconds). Total of 8 min
29 secs.
· Moving from room to room (outer perimeter) in S Hallway app. 22.2 sec walking only (102’ 4.6’/sec). Total of 22.2 secs
· Suspect seems to open up doors (3 secs) and glances (2sec) or enters ( app 10 secs) randomly.
S Hallway consists of 7 rooms. That would be 35 secs for opening the doors peeking in or more for entering. Total of 35secs.
· We know room 17 was more disturbed, so we add more time here. Total 60 secs (or only 30 secs ?)
A minute and a half for exploring the entire office suite seems way too short. But this ties into what your theory is. If you think targeted, then SP is not going to spend any more time here than they did in the other rooms. But if it’s Untargeted, then this might have been the part of the church that held the most interest for them. In which case one would expect them to look through every drawer and every filing cabinet in every office.
E Hallway consists of 4 rooms on the outside perimeter and 2 rooms on the inside. There is an additional auditorium entry
on the inside. It is unclear, whether the suspect checked and entered or not. Subtotal time 27.7
· secs for walking, 18 secs for opening 6 rooms plus app. 16 secs for breaking into room 9 and an extra 5 secs for possibly
entering room 9. Total of 66.7 secs.
· Check out room 14 app 5 s. Total 5secs.
You are assuming SP could just walk into room 14. It might have been locked just as room 9 was locked. down at the other end.
· Walk down hallway from SE to SW corner 22 secs, entering auditorium + 2secs on SW corner. Total 24 secs
SUMMARY TIME SPENT (all times approximal):
8min (1601 secs) + 29secs
22.2 secs
35secs
60secs
66.7 secs
5secs
24secs
TOTAL TIME SPENT since entering N Hallway to entering auditorium (S Hallway):
1842.9 secs = 30.6 min
Surplus of 2.6 min = 156 secs. We need a total of 28 min until MB enters the church. Deducting 30 secs from room 17. We have a surplus of 126 secs or 2 min 6 secs.
They may have opened up the auditorium doors on the E Hallway and peeked in or the doors were locked and he entered through the S doors located at the SW corner of the inside of the building (sounds familiar..). If he peeked, we can deduct some more seconds. I would then not understand why they did not enter the auditorium right away.
Again, we have a surplus of about app. 2 min.+-
I was confused by the word surplus at first. It usually means “left over” in which case it would mean the suspect still had 2 mins to spare. But then I realized that what you meant is that it’s an “overage” of 2 mins.
I don’t know, this whole thing is tricky because we only see a couple of mins of video and are trying to make assumptions about how the other 26 mins were spent. And we can’t assume SP always walks at the same velocity so it’s a total crapshoot trying to figure what it averages out to. And the same for the rooms. You could be right or you could be way, way off. The margin for error, therefore, is substantial.
What does that mean? It means I have miscalculated somewhere, although the calculations seems reasonable. Or the suspect did not check all rooms listed. The times assigned to each room though seem very conservative to me. Or we made a mistake in the suspect’s movements throughout the church. It seems reasonable though, that they went counterclockwise checking out the rooms located on the outer perimeter first ( GS’/WS theory) and then clockwise checking out the inside rooms including the auditorium.
It may be a combination of the above mentioned factors.
What does that all mean? It means, that the suspect did not have any time left IMO to explore the auditorium itself. We already have 2 in surplus left. We needed 28min , but have slightly more than 30min. Even if we find the faulty 2 min, we
would still need time for the suspect to walk through the auditorium. Or didn’t he plan on that?
In conclusion the suspect IMO may have been interrupted during that process. The attack therefore may have very well started inside the auditorium. Or, the attack was targeted and it was late in time, so he notices MB pulling into the driveway and hides inside the auditorium, when she enters. That would be indeed 2 min from pulling in to entering the church for MB plus the time she needed to walk down the hallway.
He would then perhaps have to make a noise, so MB would check out the auditorium and they could attack her.
Whatever happened and wherever the suspect moved prior and past MB’s murder, looking at the timeline and the suspect’s movements, he did seem to run out of time in the end..
Thank you for going through my lengthy timeline.
ALL IMO
-Nin