Recovered/Located UK - Cardiff - 3 Women & 2 Men Missing, leaving nightclub approx 2am, Newport, 4 March 2023

That’s brilliant @Telltale thanks for putting it together! Who is CM though?
It's all ES sister. I didn't go looking at other family. She's quoted in articles and has made for-the-public MP posts. It was mainly for a rough idea of when information was discovered/available/being communicated as the police timeline is scant on that so far.

There are some interesting inconsistencies. She talks about five of them as officially missing several hours before the 4th MP report re-the police timeline. Of course she might have been going on the balance of probabilities and police thought it likely had to get hold of a certain level of confirming evidence/contact family or something.

Still it shows they were aware of them all being together reasonably fast, also that the first two MP reports in particular were fairly close together. With the third coming in a few hours later. Of course, trying to track down and contact third parties that had yet to be reported missing could have slowed things down until it was definitivly established they also had not been seen/contacted anyone since early Saturday morning.

If there will be criticisms I imagine it will fall in what was done over that first night, or why, when it was realised that all 5 were missing, that the helicopter was not requested or a public statement made sooner? - there might be a good reason, they had yet find enough info on their movements to actually send it to any particular search area, *advertiser censored* weather keeping it from lifting, already committed etc.

CM is probably an autocorrect from too much posting on the Constance Marten Thread.
 
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POLICE have pinpointed the exact minute a car carrying five friends crashed off a road - and are appealing for anyone with dashcam footage to come forward.

Cops say the car veered off the busy dual carriageway in Cardiff at 2.03am last Saturday morning and was there for 46 hours before being spotted just after midnight on Monday.

[...]

Police believe just one vehicle was involved when it crashed off the busy A48 dual carriageway in St Mellons, Cardiff.

 
Also found this interview with The Sun interesting (Anna being SR's mum.) That very much does not tally with the police produced timeline of the first MP report coming in at 19:34 Saturday evening. - have to say I've not seen any MP SM posts from friends/family before the evening, but if she called in on 999/101 it will be on the system somewhere.

Anna made her first call to Gwent Police on Saturday lunchtime after Sophie failed to come home from a night out with her two friends she had known since infant school. She made 10 calls that day but police kept telling her not to worry and that she was probably out partying.

Anna said: “I told them that wasn’t Sophie, she’s a good girl and doesn’t go out on weekend benders. It was out of character. No one could reach her on her mobile on social media which she uses all the time. I made another 10 calls on Sunday and the police told me to stop ringing - they weren’t annoyed, just dismissive.”

Gwent Police suddenly escalated the inquiry into the missing five people and a helicopter was launched to search the area. Anna said it flew over the wooded area where the white VW Tiguan was found but failed to spot the car. By that time more than 200 people were out looking and the car was found by a woman searching with her dog.




Also, I am no car person but same car? (Thought there are quite a few pictures of RJ with cars.)

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double post - nvm I'll stick somthing in here

That new Daily Mail article has a new photo and well... I kind of see why they drove past and didn't look there for ages. Its such a little cluster of trees, almost too close to the road and surrounded by grass. You would take one good look and think no way it could it perfectly hide a great big white car that would have crashed/smashed its way through to boot.

But that thick evergreen foliage is deceptivly dense, bends rather than breaks and can just snap back into place. I guess add a small ditch to lower the profile and it absolutly can make a big white car disappear. Good on them for checking out the tyre marks, with people pulling over all over the place to search as well, I'd guess there was plenty of fresh tyre tracks in normally unusual places.

Honestly I reckon I'd dismiss it as a possibility as well. Thank Christ someone finally did go check it out, whoever it turns out to be,

1678495297981.png
 
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Timeline as far as I can tell

FRIDAY 3rd

- Group of girls, all from NEWPORT, ES + DR + SR go to THE MUFFLER in MAESGLAS (Newport) - ES apparently drove at least herself as her car remained parked outside nightclub.
- Meet two males RJ + SL + M3:JL in the nightclub - Unknown to them previously
- Group of 6 get in White Volkswagan TIGUAN (possibly around 11:00-12:00)
- Travelled to TRECCO BAY caravan park in TRECCO (25-40ish miles) where SL has a caravan
- Some sort of altercation (some reports call it a noise complaint made to park security) - group left in car


SATURDAY 4th

02:00ish
- Drives back to NEWPORT through CARDIFF and drops off JL in PENTWYN (2.5m from crash site) - JL states they went to fill car with petrol and take ES + DR + SR home (to NEWPORT)
02:03 - Crash occures A48(M) St Mellons area of Cardiff

Time that Elapses 17.5 Hours

19:34 - First Missing Report (GWENT POLICE)
19:43
- Second Missing Report (GWENT POLICE)
20:55
- Sister of ES starts posting on FB asking for info on all three girls
21:08 - Sister of ES asks for info males in girls snapchats
21:51 - Sister of ES has identified RJ and SL and is asking for contact info
21:32 - Third Missing Report (GWENT POLICE)


SUNDAY 5th

07:07 -
Sister of ES posts on FN asking for info on the TIGUAN with numberplate (multiple posts through day)
07:30 - Sister of CM posts now include that "Car last seen on the M4 coming from porthcall to Cardiff There have been NO face to face or social media contact for all 5 and the whereabouts of the car is unknown. Police have ANPR trace on car, Police are tracking phones and Social media"

Media states there were 'hundred of searchers' over Sunday, both police and volenteers have been mentioned in large numbers.

13:10 - Sister of ES posts that 'all five are reported missing and are offically missing people'
17:37 - Fourth Missing Report (SOUTH WALES POLICE)
19:53
- Sister of ES posts that "Car last seen on the M4 coming from porthcall to Cardiff"
23:00 - SWP and GP issue joint police statement confirming they are looking for five MPs and a Volkswagan TIGUAN ES + DR + SR
23:50 - Police Helicopter searches wooded area off A48


MONDAY 6th

12:02 -
Car spotted by 'officers on the ground'
12:15 - Car found/ log entry made (Statments mention helicopter was up)
That police found car first has been disputed by friends of MPs who state they spotted tyre tracks near police search area. Police dispute this strongly.

Compilation of many many MSM sources + Police and IOPC statements so expect some inaccuracies

Screenshot%202023-03-07%20at%2012.04.20.png

68482927-11836241-image-a-19_1678309116576.jpg


Many Many Sources


Many thanks and well done for putting this timeline together!

A backbone we can add to.

Such as the 3 girls phones werent working. Looking for a link.
 
And from your timeline all kudos to ES sister for her online questioning and identifying.

So sorry for the double blow to the family, possibly IMO cases will be related in terms of cause and effect.
 
Also found this interview with The Sun interesting (Anna being SR's mum.) That very much does not tally with the police produced timeline of the first MP report coming in at 19:34 Saturday evening. - have to say I've not seen any MP SM posts from friends/family before the evening, but if she called in on 999/101 it will be on the system somewhere.

Anna made her first call to Gwent Police on Saturday lunchtime after Sophie failed to come home from a night out with her two friends she had known since infant school. She made 10 calls that day but police kept telling her not to worry and that she was probably out partying.

Anna said: “I told them that wasn’t Sophie, she’s a good girl and doesn’t go out on weekend benders. It was out of character. No one could reach her on her mobile on social media which she uses all the time. I made another 10 calls on Sunday and the police told me to stop ringing - they weren’t annoyed, just dismissive.”

Gwent Police suddenly escalated the inquiry into the missing five people and a helicopter was launched to search the area. Anna said it flew over the wooded area where the white VW Tiguan was found but failed to spot the car. By that time more than 200 people were out looking and the car was found by a woman searching with her dog.




Also, I am no car person but same car? (Thought there are quite a few pictures of RJ with cars.)

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View attachment 408349
I don’t think it is the same car tbh. The Tiguan registration was VE64 YLB. Although cannot fully see the reg plate of the car in his FB photo, the first 4 characters don’t match up with the car in the crash (first character certainly isn’t a V!). Hope that makes sense. I think it looks more like a golf in his photo tbh.
 
I don’t think it is the same car tbh. The Tiguan registration was VE64 YLB. Although cannot fully see the reg plate of the car in his FB photo, the first 4 characters don’t match up with the car in the crash (first character certainly isn’t a V!). Hope that makes sense. I think it looks more like a golf in his photo tbh.
Yes, I brought this up as well and was told it’s not the same car. I thought it was too!
 
The white car that RJ is standing in front of on the FB photo has a sunroof, but the white car on the CCTV his ex provided from the Thursday night doesn't. It has roof bars instead. The CCTV of the Tiguan from Friday night that was released also shows roof bars and no sunroof, so it is likely his car, just not the one that is in the photo MSM have used.
 
Re the car VE64 YLB...
From the available public info

First registered Dec 2014
1988cc Diesel
Last change of V5 (so either keeper or address changed) in Oct 2020

Passed an MOT test in Dec 2020 at 87842 miles recorded
Passed an MOT in 15 Dec 2021 at 98649 miles recorded
So the MOT would have run out on 14 Dec 2022
Then it fails an MOT on 9th Feb 2023 at only a few extra miles at 98688
Then passes the MOT a week later after the problems were fixed on the 18 Feb 2023 at the same 98688 miles.

Car tax runs out in 01 Feb 2024
So once it had passed the MOT on the 18/02/23 it could then be taxed immediately after with the tax running out as usual on the first of the month a year later from the month in which it was taxed.
Now we don't know when the car tax ran out previously - it might have been Say Jul 2022 which would put it off the road since then but it HAD to be off the road after the MOT ran out in Dec 2022 until it was re-taxed after 18/02/23 when it passed the MOT

Who was driving is unknown to us as is whether they were legally insured to drive it either as a named person on the insurance for the vehicle or possibly if they have insurance in their own name or business allowing them full cover when driving other vehicles (motor trade policy). All that is of course provided they comply with the requirements of the policy so as to not invalidate it even if they are named on it
Here is my (wild) guess.
The recently identified 6th person was sober and driving to begin with. There are no reports of it being driving erratically to or from the caravan site or of them being advised not to drive by security etc after the trouble at the site. Hence my guess at a sober driver at this time
Now I'm guessing this person was then dropped off or rather dropped themselves off at their home as being the 6th person and the car was then driven by someone as yet unknown who piled it into the tree a short time later and who really should not have been driving.

Then finally we do not know who was the owner or who was the DVLA registered keeper of the vehicle, only that the V5 from the DVLA was re-issued in Oct 2020 but this could be because the address had changed and not because it was sold and had a new keeper.
 
Re the car VE64 YLB...
From the available public info

First registered Dec 2014
1988cc Diesel
Last change of V5 (so either keeper or address changed) in Oct 2020

Passed an MOT test in Dec 2020 at 87842 miles recorded
Passed an MOT in 15 Dec 2021 at 98649 miles recorded
So the MOT would have run out on 14 Dec 2022
Then it fails an MOT on 9th Feb 2023 at only a few extra miles at 98688
Then passes the MOT a week later after the problems were fixed on the 18 Feb 2023 at the same 98688 miles.

Car tax runs out in 01 Feb 2024
So once it had passed the MOT on the 18/02/23 it could then be taxed immediately after with the tax running out as usual on the first of the month a year later from the month in which it was taxed.
Now we don't know when the car tax ran out previously - it might have been Say Jul 2022 which would put it off the road since then but it HAD to be off the road after the MOT ran out in Dec 2022 until it was re-taxed after 18/02/23 when it passed the MOT

Who was driving is unknown to us as is whether they were legally insured to drive it either as a named person on the insurance for the vehicle or possibly if they have insurance in their own name or business allowing them full cover when driving other vehicles (motor trade policy). All that is of course provided they comply with the requirements of the policy so as to not invalidate it even if they are named on it
Here is my (wild) guess.
The recently identified 6th person was sober and driving to begin with. There are no reports of it being driving erratically to or from the caravan site or of them being advised not to drive by security etc after the trouble at the site. Hence my guess at a sober driver at this time
Now I'm guessing this person was then dropped off or rather dropped themselves off at their home as being the 6th person and the car was then driven by someone as yet unknown who piled it into the tree a short time later and who really should not have been driving.

Then finally we do not know who was the owner or who was the DVLA registered keeper of the vehicle, only that the V5 from the DVLA was re-issued in Oct 2020 but this could be because the address had changed and not because it was sold and had a new keeper.
My OH looked at the MOT side and he said that you can see why the car failed it’s MOT in Feb?
 
Indeed you can: to briefly summarize
Some brake discs below limit
Fault on some seatbelt mechanisms
Some Suspension arm bushings worn
Rear coil spring broken - I've had that one on my vauxhall - never noticed it!

Various corrosion noted as advisories but not points of failure
 
So the MOT would have run out on 14 Dec 2022
Then it fails an MOT on 9th Feb 2023 at only a few extra miles at 98688
Then passes the MOT a week later after the problems were fixed on the 18 Feb 2023 at the same 98688 miles.

It could have been sold as an MOT failure, there was quite a bit of work that needed doing.

Suffice to say it was Taxed and MOT's at the time of the crash, but I'm sure Police will be going over the MOT with a fine toothed comb, IMO.

The car was carrying quite a bit of weight, most of us drivers will know that really effects the handling of the car too, especially at speed, into a bend, a car has a tendency to sway side to side. Not saying that's what happened here, but my sibling encounted this years ago after having 5 teen friends in a car, driving home from a party and hitting and uprooting a tree head on at 50mph - Luckily all survived.
 

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