Found Deceased UK - Nicola Bulley Last Seen Walking Dog Near River - St Michaels on Wyre (Lancashire) #8

[Lady Stoddart-West]

Some considerations I have had with the time line of events for each of the different possible scenarios.


1. The police are correct and she entered the water and has sadly passed away.

If I am understanding correctly, NB arrived at the gate/bench first at roughly 08:46, then she was seen on the upper field at 09:10 which would mean it took her 24 minutes roughly to reach that point of the field. Yet her phone is back on the bench 10 minutes later, which means she is making a much quicker pace back than she was when she went out.

Can anyone tell from her strava account what her usual timing and route was, is it usual for her in terms of time spent, would there be a reason for her to make a much quicker pace on the route back than the route out, where did she have to be next/what did she have to do next, where was she heading if her day had carried on as normal.

Was it routine for her to stop at the bench?

To support the police theory of accident with no third party involvement, reasons for the quicker pace could have been she was feeling unwell or as suggested in an earlier thread, needed the loo. Both of these could have been reasons for a fall/slip that account for the dog not being wet and no signs of a slip (because she didn't slip/lose her footing but lost balance near the edge of the water)

Another theory as to why the dog could dry would be, NB has sat on the bench to finish her call. Lost concentration for a second, the dog has headed towards the water but not gone in but from NB's line of sight from the bench is hidden by the bank, NB walks over to the edge of the river to try and see where the dog has gone and the dog playfully bounds up and knocks NB off balance and into the water.

These are all ways to make the police hypothesis make sense that seem plausible but if nothing is discovered in the river then it seems unlikely.

Question would be: I think I read if she had entered the water and died she likely wouldn't have been washed out to sea but could there be a possibility that she did survive the entry to the water couldn't get herself out at that point but as a strong swimmer she didn't immediately die and then tried to swim down stream with the currents in order to find somewhere where exiting the water was much easier? how would that have effected her final location and where they are searching? could in that scenario she have accidentally swam out to sea or at least made her way much further down the river than anticipated ?

IMO, point 1 , is closest, they have said there is sensitivity and a certain context, they have detail and any relevant back history and acted immediately. [Source video upthread] They want to look closer to the sea and have said Nicola could have exited the scene via main road, etc and they have called for 'dashcam' footage to help prove this was indeed the exit taken. [Source: press conference]. The river is accessible in other places.

Currently, Peter F has said he's perplexed and can't understand their reasoning, I think he will very soon.

They can say more when the time is right. [video upthread is source].

 

[Sherlook]

So have read all the posts to date on this and some very good threads and observations.

Personally I think the police have got it all wrong in ignoring the theory of an abduction. If there is nothing found in the river in the coming days then here is the only working theory my head can come up with...although personally for me and for her family I would rather I was completely wrong and she turns up safe and sound.

For me though this field is not a place for an opportunist to happen across someone and on the spur of the moment try to abduct them. If a person did indeed abduct them from this field it is because they know this field like the back of their hand and this had to be very carefully pre-planned it would never be choosen otherwise. They will have had years of local knowledge of this field and local area, spending a lot of time walking there and mapping it, possibly even a clear view of the field/ bench from their property. Nicola is a good looking woman and this along with the location makes it less likely chance and more likely she might have been known by the person and chosen. As far as I can see there is only one point Nicola could possibly be reached or taken from to a required road for necessary concealment in a vehicle and that is the parking spaces at the end of the Rowanwater estate bordering the field with what one news report describes as a gate to the field from there. This is very close to the last known sighting and any vehicle would need to be large possibly a transit sized van. There could have been some familiarity between them but more likely force or threat used, possibly a weapon of sorts used possibly... could well have stalked the victims regular dog walking movements for some period of time.

The phone on the bench is the deflect but safe to say the bench remains in clear view of the circular walk round the field at all times so there is a chance it was just left with the dogs lead while the dog went a run, as reported no personal input was required on the call.

This parking area is the only area not covered by cctv, now this is either just unfortunate if you take the person for a fool but if on the other hand you see whoever it is as the opposite as someone who has planned this meticulously then could it be that they knew this cctv was not working, was this common knowledge to residents or staff of Rowanwater..how and when was it damaged? As a location to undertake this the person or persons would have had to have known Rowanwater very well, be comfortable with being there and their vehicle be known so as not to draw suspicion or even to get in the front gate...if it even came in the gate.

Presuming there is cctv at the front exit of the caravan park and this was checked maybe and showed no vehicle left around the immediate timeframe then I trust the properties and their vehicles within Rowanwater were searched at this point? Did a vehicle leave later in the day after stopping off at a property within the park?

My theory is if it is abduction then its a local man with local knowledge, knows of Nicola, owns a van, has access to or interest in weaponry with detailed knowledge of Rowanwater.

Cant see how police can ignore this at least as a possibility!!!

 

[Openminded66]

Ex head of the met. Also known forthe search of Kevin Parle.

 

[JennieM]

Ex head of the met. Also known forthe search of Kevin Parle.

Interesting quote 'When there is a void of information, it will get filled by speculation'.

 

[Belleville]

I was thinking, maybe they aren't securing the walkway along the stretch of the canal because they want to see who comes to look. If you were a weirdo killer, you might want to see your handy work or the fuss you've caused. Otherwise I just think its so disrespectful to have the public wondering round.

 

[Bedouin]

IMO if the first person on the scene was only seconds too late they might have seen some kind of ripples on the water surface or saw a hand or hooded head or something, enough that LE can be convinced that the body is there, but they would still need the actual body to confirm.

 

[WSA01]

So have read all the posts to date on this and some very good threads and observations.

Personally I think the police have got it all wrong in ignoring the theory of an abduction. If there is nothing found in the river in the coming days then here is the only working theory my head can come up with...although personally for me and for her family I would rather I was completely wrong and she turns up safe and sound.

For me though this field is not a place for an opportunist to happen across someone and on the spur of the moment try to abduct them. If a person did indeed abduct them from this field it is because they know this field like the back of their hand and this had to be very carefully pre-planned it would never be choosen otherwise. They will have had years of local knowledge of this field and local area, spending a lot of time walking there and mapping it, possibly even a clear view of the field/ bench from their property. Nicola is a good looking woman and this along with the location makes it less likely chance and more likely she might have been known by the person and chosen. As far as I can see there is only one point Nicola could possibly be reached or taken from to a required road for necessary concealment in a vehicle and that is the parking spaces at the end of the Rowanwater estate bordering the field with what one news report describes as a gate to the field from there. This is very close to the last known sighting and any vehicle would need to be large possibly a transit sized van. There could have been some familiarity between them but more likely force or threat used, possibly a weapon of sorts used possibly... could well have stalked the victims regular dog walking movements for some period of time.

The phone on the bench is the deflect but safe to say the bench remains in clear view of the circular walk round the field at all times so there is a chance it was just left with the dogs lead while the dog went a run, as reported no personal input was required on the call.

This parking area is the only area not covered by cctv, now this is either just unfortunate if you take the person for a fool but if on the other hand you see whoever it is as the opposite as someone who has planned this meticulously then could it be that they knew this cctv was not working, was this common knowledge to residents or staff of Rowanwater..how and when was it damaged? As a location to undertake this the person or persons would have had to have known Rowanwater very well, be comfortable with being there and their vehicle be known so as not to draw suspicion or even to get in the front gate...if it even came in the gate.

Presuming there is cctv at the front exit of the caravan park and this was checked maybe and showed no vehicle left around the immediate timeframe then I trust the properties and their vehicles within Rowanwater were searched at this point? Did a vehicle leave later in the day after stopping off at a property within the park?

My theory is if it is abduction then its a local man with local knowledge, knows of Nicola, owns a van, has access to or interest in weaponry with detailed knowledge of Rowanwater.

Cant see how police can ignore this at least as a possibility!!!

I don't think they're ignoring it as a possibility. It's just a statistical improbability because of how meticulously it would need to be planned and orchestrated.

Also maybe I've watched too many cop shows but If a criminal was clever enough to perfectly orchestrate this, it would strike them as having the kind of profile of someone who would want everyone to know that they planned the perfect crime so they would eventually expose they did it.

If it's a chancer who just got *incredibly* lucky, they will eventually make a mistake and be caught.

The number of suspects who would fit into all the category you listed is probably so few that the police managed to rule most of them out quite quickly which is why they aren't focusing on it as the main theory.

I think it makes most sense to focus on the accident theory as with either profile of criminal you could be dealing with in the theory of foul play, them feeling like they weren't the focus of suspicion is more likely to see them slip up and make a mistake.

 

[Belleville]

They have said they can't give the 'context' yet to Peter F, 'all the details they have that they can't yet disclose' (source upthread, posted video) need to be sensitive and will do so when the time is 'right'. They acted fast, almost immediately. They are looking at the main road, asking for dashcam and then looking at another part of the river closer to the sea. Peter F is puzzled and has been adamant that a body can't travel so quickly etc, but as the police have said, he doesn't yet have the context they do.

Is there a bridge near the other part of the river near the sea?

 

[Beckxsy]

I thought I'd go back to start and just go over it all again and caused myself even more headache.

 

[Lady Stoddart-West]

Is there a bridge near the other part of the river near the sea?

I believe so, and to add I believe they can know when NB exited approx which is why they are looking for cars only in a certain time frame [source video upthread]. They have said, [again source thread] the next step is to look at a different part of the river closer to the sea. Peter F can't see how she got there from the bench and can't understand why on earth they are doing this. The police tell you themselves in the video. There is a sensitivity and the timing has to be right and the full context has to be absorbed and understood. They acted absolutely immediately.

 

[Wishbone]

They have said they can't give the 'context' yet to Peter F, 'all the details they have that they can't yet disclose' (source upthread, posted video) need to be sensitive and will do so when the time is 'right'. They acted fast, almost immediately. They are looking at the main road, asking for dashcam and then looking at another part of the river closer to the sea. Peter F is puzzled and has been adamant that a body can't travel so quickly etc, but as the police have said, he doesn't yet have the context they do.

My mind is really wandering now... what if she was abducted and driven away from the car park without a working camera and dumped in the river further downstream. Please no throwing rotten fruit my way.

 

[Lady Stoddart-West]

I thought I'd go back to start and just go over it all again and caused myself even more headache.

IMO the police give the answers in the video a PP posted upthread. It seems to be sadly, simple. Highly sensitive and as they say, they are in a very difficult position as can't yet fully explain, even to Peter F, why they want to look closer to the sea.

They acted immediately, faster than usual. NB was seen in the area of the bench and they are carefully checking to see when she might have exited, as the explain, by looking at all the data they can get from cars passing by in a specific time window. The river can be accessed from different points.

They will give context and any relevant back story, etc, just not yet. They have to be respectful and sensitive, keep confidentiality until an appropriate time.

 

[Lady Stoddart-West]

My mind is really wandering now... what if she was abducted and driven away from the car park without a working camera and dumped in the river further downstream. Please no throwing rotten fruit my way.

<no link from an approved source? suggests a different part of the river (closer to the sea) and the full context of this has not yet been revealed. They are clearly privately confident walkers/people etc, are not in imminent danger etc, they are NOT irresponsible, and believe no third parties are likely involved. It's difficult, <modsnip - no link from an approved source> As you can imagine, this is an incredible difficult line to tread with morals and ethics to consider etc.

They say they want to look carefully re: vehicles AND then look nearer the sea which has people scratching their heads. Yet, IMO, the answer is sadly, simple (and they also believe she likely left by this exit as it is the only one they haven't ruled out). Look at the lighting speed of their initial response for one thing. They need to find Nicola first before anything else can be actioned and context revealed (IMO) and they have said as much.

 

[porkypies]

One reason why some individuals take a risk and enter water, is to save a struggling animal.
I've thought about Willow not being present when/if NB entered the water, so could Willow have wandered off whilst NB was at or near the bench distracted by her team call, then chased a deer or sheep into the water nearby ? That could create something of a panic for NB (with the notice about dogs being kept on leads) and resulted in an accident, without the dog entering the water.
She may even have harnessed and tied up the dog quickly first, but Willow then got lose and could not find NB.

 

[geddis]

Given the police are now talking about Morecombe and have already acted to a coupe of false alerts downstream I will spare the rotten fruit. Maybe that is in their thoughts.

However such a scenario does complicate the practicalities from a third party perspective to what advantage? Added time in the water maybe to confuse time and cause of death?

 

[JennieM]

Updated Mail article

'The truth is nothing makes sense': Police extend search for missing Nicola Bulley to the sea after finding no evidence she fell into river - despite diver saying it's IMPOSSIBLE she will be found there and friend revealing doubts over detectives' theory​

• Team of 40 detectives currently working on around 500 different lines of inquiry
• Search has expanded closer to Morecambe Bay, where river meets the sea

Police extend search for Nicola Bulley towards the sea

Heather Gibbons has joined Ms Bulley's family and friends in questioning Lancashire Police's theory that she may have fallen into the River Wyre while walking her dog on January 27.

www.dailymail.co.uk

 

[Belleville]

I believe so, and to add I believe they can know when NB exited approx which is why they are looking for cars only in a certain time frame [source video upthread]. They have said, [again source thread] the next step is to look at a different part of the river closer to the sea. Peter F can't see how she got there from the bench and can't understand why on earth they are doing this. The police tell you themselves in the video. There is a sensitivity and the timing has to be right and the full context has to be absorbed and understood. They acted absolutely immediately.

Mmmm making me wonder. Thanks

 

[Wishbone]

Given the police are now talking about Morecombe and have already acted to a coupe of false alerts downstream I will spare the rotten fruit. Maybe that is in their thoughts.

However such a scenario does complicate the practicalities from a third party perspective to what advantage? Added time in the water maybe to confuse time and cause of death?

get rid of the body as quickly as possible so as not to continue hauling it around in a car or van. Like I said, my mind is wandering

 

[Busyliz]

I hope they’ve searched extensively along the river, not just in it.

I remember watching a doc a few years ago, a guy went missing on his way to visit his daughter at his parents house, they searched and searched but couldn’t find him, he was eventually found three years later, on the bank of the river which he walked by and only about 100yrds from where the search for him was ceased by the police. He was found by a dog walker in the end who had gone down the bank and noticed his shoes.

 

[Lady Stoddart-West]

Given the police are now talking about Morecombe and have already acted to a coupe of false alerts downstream I will spare the rotten fruit. Maybe that is in their thoughts.

However such a scenario does complicate the practicalities from a third party perspective to what advantage? Added time in the water maybe to confuse time and cause of death?

IMO no third party involvement, just the recent police actions show that it's thought a potential exit from bench area via road and possibly a different initial entry point to the river. <modsnip - no link from an approved source> Sadly, IMO they may find Nicola around here.