WA WA - Laura Macke, Hiking Alone @ Enchanted Valley, Camping at Pyrites Creek, 30. Oct 2022

[RickshawFan]

Thanks for the link to the SAR page for Laura.

Some points I picked up from it....

Her car was found parked right at the EV trailhead, rather than near Graves campground. Her gear was not in it. So it seems she did head out on her planned hike.
Two ONP rangers hiked up to the Enchanted Valley on Thursday, November 3. To date there has been no sign of her clothing or gear.

A post by her sister yesterday morning (Monday) indicated that SAR crews overnighted at Enchanted Valley to search the upper portion. One crew was going to hike out that day, searching as they went, while another crew was hiking up to Enchanted Valley. A drone with infrared capability to search river and shore was also being used. Some SAR stayed in field last night as well.Today the emphasis will be on aerial searches.

K-9s were used a couple of days ago, but came up with nothing.

Do we know if infrared is useful if the person has been deceased for several days? I would imagine that's what we're looking at here. It scans for heat, as in a living body, correct?

Crews did spend a lot of time in EV, and were camped there overnight (I think there might be a seasonal ranger cabin up there, so they'd have a dry place with maybe wood fire, food drop from helicopter, etc.). That area seems more open, so more amenable to helicopter searches, grid-style searches, etc. I think they would have found LM if she was there.

I believe K-9's proved useless because aroma would have been long gone because of the rain; they were mooted and have hardly been used.

 

[RickshawFan]

This makes me so incredibly sad. I am just filled with dread seeing the weather report for today. As the others have said, it is SO wet, you just cannot fully dry out until you leave the trail. And I’ve never been there in late Oct/Nov. We joked that we were already “molding” halfway into day one and the temps were likely 20+ degrees F warmer than they would be now, plus we’ve never had significant wind.

Even inside my tent, everything was slightly damp because it was hard to leave all your wet gear totally outside. My husband is much better about this because he does mountaineering in much colder conditions. You must leave all damp items in the outer vestibule and protect your sleeping bag, etc., from moisture so you don’t freeze.

I needed that tip! I'll have to remember next time I sleep in snow. My AT method was to put the dry base layer next to my body, with the damp one next and more layers on top. This would make the damp one drier by morning, but it might not work if it's below freezing! Trying to actually dry a base layer when you're backpacking would take some serious sunshine and summer weather.

Tents with bathtub floors usually have at least one seam on the floor. It is taped so moisture doesn't wick up the stitches from outside, but my experience is that if there's a lot of water outside, you'll have water in your tent coming through those seams. It helps to have a tarp/footprint underneath, but nothing is perfect. I've never been optimistic about this case even with the high quality tent. Water just splashes from the ground up under the fly. I had this happen with a Marmot tent.

 

[RickshawFan]

I'm in Port Townsend and woke up this morning to see a light dusting of snow outside. It's cold! And last week's winds have left around 1600 people still without electricity.

Hopefully Laura is prepared enough to stay alive until she's found but it doesn't look very promising.

Yes, there's been an NOAA weather advisory for snow in the Quinault region, 2"-10".

Lucky you being in Port Townsend! I love it there.

 

[acutename]

Does the family know what food LM brought with her? If you are going to not die of hypothermia, food helps. If you are a "light packer," you tend to underpack food, but extra would help. From what locals are saying, was she hiking in wetness the entire time? Also- how many hours of light is there in the rain? 7-8?

 

[RickshawFan]

Does the family know what food LM brought with her? If you are going to not die of hypothermia, food helps. If you are a "light packer," you tend to underpack food, but extra would help. From what locals are saying, was she hiking in wetness the entire time? Also- how many hours of light is there in the rain? 7-8?

1. The skimpy plan. LM was supposed to be hiking for 3 days. She had a history of hiking the Long Trail in VT. Overnight hikers on major trails like the LT and AT have veritable cult commitments to travel light. Unclear how LM might fit in that scheme. She might have just decided "one day in, one full day on the trail, one day out, let me see, I'll take 2 dinners, 2 breakfasts and a bunch of snacks, but not too many. I can fill up when I'm done." I have a feeling (feeling only) this is probable (I have encountered ALOT of LT hikers), and this would be the MAX they take. This method also counts on others to provide for you if you've screwed up your plans, and it's very problematic if there's no one else around.

2. Traditional planning, standard rule of thumb. I did most of my hiking learning in the PNW with a club like the Mountaineers, but have also done ultra-distance thru hiking. I carried more than most thru hikers, but about standard for a backpack trip, e.g. in the PNW. You take an ENTIRE extra day of food, and you take extra energy bars, just in case. On a trip like LM's to the EV, I would be taking 3 days of food at 2lbs per day and my spare day maybe on the light side (7.3 lbs total).

But here's another dimension of the problem. There is generally some kind of cooking involved. These days, you pour boiling water on your prepared food, and it sets up. No need to actually cook. However, you'd be carrying a stove and fuel. There is a second advantage to this: if it gets cold, you can heat yourself some water to drink. (Hot Jello is standard SAR fare.) But if you're in a deluge......I'm not sure how this would work.... It would be very complicated if your safety required you to stay in your tent. Under no conditions can you safely use a stove in a tent (carbon monoxide poisoning) or even the vestibule.

Which brings to mind..... if LM had a stove, she'd have been able to start a smoky fire. Many stoves have piezo's (like a Bic lighter) or a spark, so don't require matches: no issue with wet matches. She'd have had to find something to burn, but IMO there should have been a smoky fire in this case, and for sure it would be spotted (e.g. from the air). It's possible she didn't take a stove (per ultralight thinking), but I think more likely hypothermia happened very early in the trip.

Pro tip. I've provided this before, but I'll do it again! Get some cotton balls and smear vaseline on them. Put them in a baggie in your (day) pack along with a lighter. They take up almost no space. They are fire starter. Alternatively, take trick birthday candles (they don't blow out). You will use these to start a smoky fire if you need help....

 

[RickshawFan]

The FB search site seems to have gone poof! I wonder if NPS called off the search? NOAA has had winter weather advisories for snow at Quinault, so it might have become too risky for volunteers, especially now there’s been no sign of LM.

 

[annpats]

so it is like Great Britain here, everything grows, certain natural greenhouse effect.

Great Britain (& Ireland )gets hit by the Gulf Stream weather system which brings warmer and wet weather from across the Atlantic. It's doesn't really hit much of the rest of Europe (maybe a bit of the Netherlands and Belgium).

That's why the UK is quite often wet and rainy all year around while the rest of Europe has snow and bitterly cold temperatures in the winter and searing heat in the summer.

 

[GraceG]

Do we know if infrared is useful if the person has been deceased for several days? I would imagine that's what we're looking at here. It scans for heat, as in a living body, correct?

Crews did spend a lot of time in EV, and were camped there overnight (I think there might be a seasonal ranger cabin up there, so they'd have a dry place with maybe wood fire, food drop from helicopter, etc.). That area seems more open, so more amenable to helicopter searches, grid-style searches, etc. I think they would have found LM if she was there.

I believe K-9's proved useless because aroma would have been long gone because of the rain; they were mooted and have hardly been used.

During decomposition microorganisms emit different thermal signatures which can be detected by thermographic imaging. Obviously it doesn't give off as much of a "signal" as a living, warm body but since thermography detects infrared radiation in the electromagnetic spectrum, it CAN detect growth signatures of microorganisms in a deceased person under the right conditions. As far as the scents and the dogs - wet can actually be good for a scent trail - wind is another matter. In a strong wind, the scent molecules are carried further away and can be dispersed before getting to the dog’s nose. If you have changes in wind speed and direction (i.e. with storm-related gusts) the scent can be moved around in ways that make it extremely difficult for a dog to get an accurate scent picture, if they can get one at all.

 

[RickshawFan]

During decomposition microorganisms emit different thermal signatures which can be detected by thermographic imaging. Obviously it doesn't give off as much of a "signal" as a living, warm body but since thermography detects infrared radiation in the electromagnetic spectrum, it CAN detect growth signatures of microorganisms in a deceased person under the right conditions. As far as the scents and the dogs - wet can actually be good for a scent trail - wind is another matter. In a strong wind, the scent molecules are carried further away and can be dispersed before getting to the dog’s nose. If you have changes in wind speed and direction (i.e. with storm-related gusts) the scent can be moved around in ways that make it extremely difficult for a dog to get an accurate scent picture, if they can get one at all.

So helpful!

It was supposed to be very windy in Quinault, so I guess that's why they couldn't use the dogs. All the water might have been too dangerous, too.

 

[Snoopster]

The FB search site seems to have gone poof! I wonder if NPS called off the search? NOAA has had winter weather advisories for snow at Quinault, so it might have become too risky for volunteers, especially now there’s been no sign of LM.

It's still there as far as I can see.

 

[RickshawFan]

It's still there as far as I can see.

It's not listed on FB any more....

 

[RickshawFan]

At least one of those search groups is Explorer Scouts. I can't imagine them extending the search much longer.

 

[Snoopster]

It's not listed on FB any more....

I can still see it. Perhaps it is in my cache?
But I sorted comments by 'most recent' and there is one from 5 minutes ago. (I'm not the most tech savvy, so maybe I am misinterpreting something?)

ETA: Nope. Definitely still working as there is a new post by Laura's sister, Angela from 20 minutes ago.

6 pm PST 11/8 - no findings today. Multiple helicopters and spotters and two ground crews did search. Picture was taken from the trailhead today.

And she posted this pic from the trailhead.

It's so sad that they haven't found any sign of Laura yet.

 

[RickshawFan]

I can still see it. Perhaps it is in my cache?
But I sorted comments by 'most recent' and there is one from 5 minutes ago. (I'm not the most tech savvy, so maybe I am misinterpreting something?)

ETA: Nope. Definitely still working as there is a new post by Laura's sister, Angela from 20 minutes ago.


And she posted this pic from the trailhead.

It's so sad that they haven't found any sign of Laura yet.

Weird. But you gave me an idea it might be my cache that's acting up.
Beautiful photo. They'd be looking for a grey backpack in there, and someone with a black rain jacket.....

 

[Hexe]

Did she have the paper map? Easy to go accidentally off the trail during a downpour and if she didn't have her electronica well protected I imagine they did not respond well to being perpetually damp.

 

[RickshawFan]

Did she have the paper map? Easy to go accidentally off the trail during a downpour and if she didn't have her electronica well protected I imagine they did not respond well to being perpetually damp.

Good thought on phone getting damp. Unless LM had spare battery power and knew to put the phone on airplane mode so it didn’t keep trying to find a tower, the screen wouldn’t work, either.

The screen on a phone is too narrow, too, if you’re lost. You’d need a detailed, wide, view to scope out escape routes.

LM may also never have experienced a trail where you have to interpret a map. She may have simply always been presented with a trail route. Kinda like Google: it tells you where to drive, and you don’t need to know about anything else.

 

[TwinkieDefense]

Nov 9, 2022 article: Has not been located but search to continue. Rather interesting about an anonymous tip and a “military grade SOS ping”. Why an “anonymous” tip and does anybody know about this ping technology? Sounds like awful weather conditions like many locals here have pointed out.

No signs found of missing hiker | Peninsula Daily News

Park seeks tipster

www.peninsuladailynews.com

[…]

Park officials want to talk with the person who left an anonymous tip on Nov. 3, she said.

[…].

Laura’s sister Jennifer posted that her phone is being sent a military grade SOS ping every day that doesn’t require cell service but does require that the phone has battery power and is turned on. No hits have been received.

The SOS signal is working because it was sent to a family member who was able to touch the screen and send the information back. The ping is designed so that she only has to interact with the screen that pops up. Then GPS coordinates can be gathered within a 35-foot accuracy.

[…]

… The search area includes the trail to Enchanted Valley as well as beyond and off-trail areas.

The area has experienced rain and snow during the past several days, which has hampered search efforts, especially for drones and helicopters. Temperatures are near freezing at Lake Quinault and below freezing in the search area.

Officials are asking the public for any information. Anyone in the area of Lake Quinault, Graves Creek or Enchanted Valley between Oct. 30 and Nov. 1 is asked to call or text the tip line at 1-888-653-0009, submit a tip online at go.nps.gov/Submit ATip, or email nps_isb@nps.gov.

 

[moonriverfarm]

Wow.

 

[acutename]

Weird. But you gave me an idea it might be my cache that's acting up.
Beautiful photo. They'd be looking for a grey backpack in there, and someone with a black rain jacket.....

is that the actual trail or a stream nearby?

(there are some signs near Rocky Mtn Park in CO, on the roads, that say if it starts to rain hard, to leave your car and head uphill ASAP because the canyon you are in will likely flood, and running uphill might save your life. I just recalled those-)

 

[MaestroMackes]

The FB search site seems to have gone poof! I wonder if NPS called off the search? NOAA has had winter weather advisories for snow at Quinault, so it might have become too risky for volunteers, especially now there’s been no sign of LM.

The FB group is still there. There are no plans to call off the search. Helicopter units from national guard, navy, and border patrol were out yesterday.