Math can be a damn sucker. Because like in every area of expertise, it is garnished with $60 words to hide that things are quite easy. Bottom line is, if the number of missing persons in a group suddenly spikes by 25% or more, something is foul and someone should look for the reason. 10% more and the number of possible reasons is usually reduced to one option: An SK is hunting in this group. The trick is, to look at each possible victim groups on it's own because no possible victim group alone is big enough to change the numbers in relation to the whole population significantly. 20 missing boys are in the statistical noise when I compare that to the number of people going missing all together. Twenty missing boys in one jurisdiction compare to the number of boys who went missing average over the last five years ... that is a spike. And smelling dead bodies ... people see, smell and hear more what they expect. A little bit trivia from another area. In WWII, there were for three years every night the E-boat fights. German e-boats against British MTBs mostly. Now, what they did is, they lurked, they just stopped next to a buoy. Others looked in the maps and saw, exactly where their radar showed them "something" had to be an old buoy, so everything was okay. They expected something to be there, rarely they noticed, what they had in the radar, it was too big. Well, suddenly the motors went on and before anyone could do something, one or two ships went down, 60-80 people died in a few minutes. Because, as I said, people see what they expect to see. And smell what they expect to smell. Dead bodies are normally not on that list.