Okay, this is going to be long. I appreciate anyone who takes the time to read it, and I would appreciate anyone's thoughts about the information below. First is a rough timeline of that night based on media reports, and below that is some of my thoughts on the timeline. This is sort of the "bottom line" to me. The meat and potatoes of the case, if you will. Assuming the timeline reported in the media is correct- if Deborah did it, how did she do it? I haven't been able to come up with an answer to that question.
Monday, October 3rd 2011
1:00pm-As she was leaving to run errands, MH., who lives around the corner from the Irwin home, saw John Tanko turning on sprinklers in the yard of her next door neighbor, who was out of town.
Unknown time- From some point early in the afternoon, the family cell phones were hot-lined due to nonpayment and could only receive incoming calls and incoming texts.
MH's neighbor saw John Tanko walk away with MH's dog that day. The dog turned up several miles away a few days later.
2:30pm- Jeremy arrived home from work as an electrician, but would have to return later to work overtime on an electrical job at a Starbucks.
4:30pm- Deborah and her brother went to a supermarket. They are seen on surveillance video purchasing baby food, baby wipes, and a box of wine. Jeremy stayed home with the children.
4:52pm-Deborah and her brother left the supermarket.
5:00pm-Deborah and her brother returned home from the supermarket.
5:15pm-Jeremy's boss called him to talk about a business question. While on the phone with him, she heard Lisa and the kids in the background.
5:30pm-Deborah's brother left the Irwin home. Deborah prepared dinner for herself, her children, SB and SB's daughter. Jeremy returned to work overtime as an electrician at a Starbucks. Jeremy said he told Deborah that he would be home around 10:00pm. According to Jeremy's boss, he and Jeremy were unaware of how long they would be working that night, but he expected to be finished around 11:00pm. The job ended up taking longer than they both expected. Jeremy was seen on surveillance footage working until 3:30am, when he left the Starbucks to return home.
Unknown time- Deborah took in a stray kitten.
6:40pm-Deborah got Lisa ready for bed and placed her in her crib. Deborah checked on Lisa again a few minutes later, finding her standing in her crib before tucking her back in. Deborah and SB started having drinks and talking on the front porch, while SB's daughter watched a movie and played inside with Lisa's brothers.
Approx.8:00pm-Shane B. was on his grandmother's front porch, two doors down from the Irwin home, smoking a cigarette. He had been staying with her for a short period of time. Deborah and SB called him over to chat. He had not met either woman before. He went over and talked with them for approx. an hour and a half. He said he didn't see them actually pouring alcohol into their cups, but he could tell they were drinking- they were having fun, being a little loud. He was not drinking. He did not see Lisa or any of the children during this time.
Approx.9:30pm- Shane B. returned to his grandmother's house. Mary H. noticed that the sprinklers were still turned on in her neighbors yard when she returned home from her errands.
10:30pm-SB and her daughter returned to their home and Deborah went inside the Irwin home. SB said she saw some of the lights go off in the Irwin home around this time.
Shane B. stepped outside again to smoke a cigarette. Deborah was no longer outside. SB was sitting in front of her own house at that time, also smoking a cigarette. The two chatted from across their yards. After one cigarette, Shane B. went back inside.
Deborah said she left the computer room window open that night. Due to the alcohol, she is unsure if she locked the door. She is unsure if she checked on Lisa. Deborah said she went to sleep with Lisa's brothers and the stray kitten in her bed. At some point during the night, one of the boys went to his own bedroom.
11:00pm- MH noticed that the sprinklers had been turned off at her neighbor's house. She assumed John Tanko turned them off because he was responsible for tending to the yard while the family was out of town.
11:30pm-SB went inside her home.
11:57pm- Someone attempted to make a phone call to Megan Wright's cell phone using one of the missing cell phones. Megan Wright has indicated that she does not know Deborah or Jeremy. The Irwin family's cell phone records for the year prior to Lisa going missing show that no incoming or outgoing calls were made to or from Megan Wright's cell phone before that night.
Tuesday, October 4th 2011
Approx.12:15am-Around the corner from the Irwin home, a man was leaving his house to go to work. As he was walking to his car, he noticed a man carrying a baby down the street. His wife watched the man through the front window of their home. The married couple saw the man walking toward the yard of the house Jersey was staying in. Police later interviewed the couple at least 4 times about the sighting. Due to the sprinklers being left on in the yard, the ground was muddy. Later in the morning, police took casts of footprints from the area leading into the backyard. MH told a reporter that John Tanko and his girlfriend at the time, Megan Wright, would often cut though that backyard as a shortcut to the N.Brighton Townhouses.
Unknown time-Someone activated the internet browser on Deborah's phone 5 times that night.
2:15am-Surveillance video from a gas station located at N.Brighton and Parvin Rd., not far from the Irwin home, shows a person walking along the road. The store manager said it is unusual to see someone walking in that area at that time of night.
2:27am-A dumpster fire is reported in the parking lot of the N.Brighton Townhouses near the Irwin home. On September 16th, 2011, Megan Wright's car was set on fire in a different area of the same parking lot.
3:17am-Someone attempted to check voice mail on the missing phone.
3:22am-Someone attempted to check voice mail on the missing phone.
Approx. 3:45am-Jeremy returned home from work, finding the front door unlocked and some lights on. As Jeremy walked through the house turning lights off, he noticed that a window was left open in the computer room and the screen had been pushed inwards. Walking through the house, he saw the older boy in his bed. Lisa's bedroom door was open, but he didn't look inside at that point. Upon entering the master bedroom, he found Deborah asleep in bed with one of Lisa's brothers and a stray kitten. Jeremy woke up Deborah, somewhat perturbed by the unusual circumstances and concerned about electricity bills. He asked her why some lights were on, and mentioned that the front door was unlocked, the computer room window was open and the screen had been pushed in. Jeremy then checked on Lisa. He told Deborah she was not in her crib.
Both parents began frantically looking around the house for Lisa. Deborah collapsed on the floor, sobbing. Jeremy ran next door, banged on SB's door and asked if Lisa was there.
The parents noticed that Jeremy's personal cell phone, Deborah's broken cell phone, and a temporary phone Deborah received from her grandfather were missing from where they were sitting on the kitchen counter.
Approx.4:00am-Jeremy called 911 from his mobile work phone. 911 dispatch tapes indicate that Jeremy reported his 10-month-old daughter was missing and a window screen had been busted. Deborah stood out front with her crying children and waited for police to arrive. Jeremy grabbed a flashlight from his work truck and searched around the yard.
Approx. 4:10am-A man riding a motorcycle said he saw a man walking with a baby in his arms at the intersection of NE 48th St. and N.Randolph.
4:10am-The first police car arrived at the Irwin home.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
I strongly believe Jeremy was not involved in Lisa's disappearance. His whereabouts are accounted for from when he arrived at work that evening until 3:30am. There has been nothing to suggest Lisa went missing before that time frame. Lisa was reported missing within minutes of his arrival at the home.
The police were aware of the Deborah's drinking from day 1, however- she did not mention her drinking in the initial media interviews. I don't think she wanted to draw attention to it in the initial days because she feels guilty about it. That's totally understandable, IMO. In the days, weeks, and years after the fact she has publicly expressed regret for the drinking on several occasions. She believes if she hadn't been drinking, she might have heard something and been able to stop it. If she's innocent, I cannot imagine the guilt she must feel. I'm not a parent, so I don't really feel comfortable commenting on the fact that she possibly didn't check on Lisa between 6:40pm and nearly 4am. I will say that if Lisa woke up crying during the night and needed to be changed or fed, Deborah might have heard her cries over the baby monitor and went in and tended to her. If she was taken around midnight, Lisa would not have been there after that point to wake her mother with her cries.
Based on this timeline, in my opinion, it is likely that whatever happened to Lisa happened in the 87 minutes between 10:30pm when Deborah went inside, and 11:57pm when the phone call was attempted. When she went inside, Lisa would have been in her crib, possibly sleeping. Deborah would have then taken Lisa out of her crib for some reason and ???? ???? ???? happened, causing Lisa to be deceased. Deborah would have been in a panic, trying to figure out what she should do, under the influence of alcohol and expecting Jeremy home at any moment. Lisa's brothers were in the home. Instead of calling 911, she would have began to formulate a plan to dispose of Lisa's body. She knew the family cell phones could not make outgoing calls or send outgoing texts, but at 11:57pm, she would have for some reason attempted to call the phone number of MW, a woman whom she had never met (and a phone number that had not appeared on the family phone records before that night). Why did she attempt to make that call, especially with a phone she knew was broken and couldn't make outgoing calls? I have never read or thought of a plausible, believable theory on how Deborah could have done this taking into account the timeline. Most theories I have read are extremely outlandish or based on rumors and what I consider to be a faulty understanding of the information available. After all critical evidence in Lisa's case was processed, (that would include any evidence that might have come from the cadaver dog hit) KCPD indicated that there is no evidence that Lisa is deceased. Her case is being investigated by Crimes Against Children detectives, not homicide detectives.
If Deborah went to sleep after she went inside at 10:30pm, she would be sleeping soundly at the apparent time the intruder would have entered, between 11:30pm when SB went inside and 11:57pm when the phone call was attempted. She would have continued sleeping until Jeremy returned at about 3:45am. After watching media video tours of the Irwin home, looking at the lay out of the home- it is easy for me to imagine John Tanko or someone known to John Tanko quickly and quietly entering Lisa's home, taking Lisa and the phones while Deborah and the boys were asleep, perhaps leaving little to no evidence behind. Maybe this person tried to push the screen in and enter through the computer room window, but was possibly unable to do so. Maybe they were able to enter, and sleeping Deborah didn't hear. Maybe this person walked right in through an unlocked door. The intruder wouldn't have known the phones were not working properly. It seems more plausible to me that an intruder attempted to call MW, rather than Deborah attempting to call MW. All-around, I think an intruder theory sounds much more plausible than Deborah plotting some elaborate, risky cover-up of her baby's death, leaving so little evidence behind that she has yet to be arrested over 3 years later and Lisa is not believed to be deceased. I have a few ideas, but I'm kind of stuck on why an intruder would take a baby, but- as we've seen here on WS, stranger things have happened.
I find the sighting by the married couple to be extremely credible. Some suggest that this sighting was staged to make people think it was an intruder, or maybe it was an accomplice of Deborah's- perhaps a male friend or relative, or even Jeremy seen walking with Lisa. I do not think that is likely. Jeremy was at work, so he can be ruled out. Deborah would have had to cause Lisa's death, begin to formulate a plan to dispose of her body in those 87 minutes I mentioned before. She would have to somehow contact a male accomplice who would be willing and in close enough proximity to arrive at the home in time to help her. I say "somehow contact", because it would have been difficult for Deborah to contact an accomplice that night, due to the family cell phones being unable to make outgoing calls or send outgoing texts. She would also run the risk of this accomplice possibly calling 911. If she somehow did contact an accomplice through whatever means, and they were nutty enough to agree to a plan like that, this all would have occurred between 11:30pm when SB went inside, and shortly after midnight when the man was seen with the baby. Again, it is much more plausible to me that it was John Tanko or someone known to John Tanko seen walking that night, especially considering that the man was seen walking toward the yard of the house John Tanko was working at.
If Deborah is guilty, the voice mail check would mean she was awake and using the phone at 3:22am. Jeremy arrived home at roughly 3:45am. That would mean that Deborah hid the phones well enough that they couldn't be found after at least two weeks of extensive searching (it is still not known if they have been found), hopped into bed and pretended to be asleep in around 20 minutes, between 3:22am and approx. 3:45am when Jeremy returned home. Keep in mind, at that point, she thought he would have been home at 10:00pm and would have been expecting him home at any moment.
Perhaps it's possible that Jeremy could have helped dispose of the phones when he got home, but I don't think so. He would have arrived home, discovered his baby was dead, her body hidden, and her own mother was attempting to cover up the crime. Without taking much time to grieve or think through the situation, he would then have had to dispose of the phones so well that they possibly still have not been found, run over in a panic to his neighbors door pretending to look for Lisa, and call 911 all in a matter of 15-20 minutes. Later that day during the first police interrogation, after being up since the day before and in shock about what had occurred, he would have had to make up a believable story about what happened when he arrived home and how he discovered Lisa was missing. In the first couple of days, KCPD said there were no holes in the parent's stories. To me, the suggestion that Jeremy disposed of the phones or was involved at all in the supposed cover-up of Lisa's possible death that night is very unlikely, based on the timeline.
