Nancy Guthrie, 84, (mother of TODAY Show host Savannah Guthrie) missing - last seen in the Catalina foothills area on Jan 31, 2026

Re: the gem show/gems collector neighbor theory -

I wonder how prominent the addresses on houses in NG's neighborhood are displayed. Given the desert terrain and the fact that it doesn't look like a structured HOA neighborhood, I'm guessing they aren't easily visible - especially in the middle of the night in a neighborhood with a light ordinance for stargazing.

Lebowski said:

wish we knew which sample this is for. one might take "bloodline trace" as a hint it's presumed perp blood (i.e., from the house), but AFAIK we don't know whether any foreign DNA in the house was from a bodily fluid sample.

would be annoyed if it's one of the random gloves of unknown provenance.

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Haha, I was thinking the same. The gloves seem so farfetched.

jMO

SMK777 said:

Agreed. DNA inside the house is more likely to yield results relevant to the case than a glove found 2 miles away. I suppose the hope was that he threw it out the car window.

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At this point, they are tracking down all leads, no matter how farfetched.

JMO

Napoli said:

1000 POSTS LATER, people speculating on AI vs real images and 2 perps...I dont think there were 2 perps. As everyone knows by now, I have felt from the beginning this was a kidnapper who had a delusional fascination with SG. She is his fantasy girlfriend .He is a marginalized, socially inadequate, man who has a poetic soul and finds his meaning in life through movies and TV. He is fixated on SG. Probably has an area in his home, like an altar, that has her photo, articles about her etc. He thinks when she is on the TODAY show that every word she speaks is CODE, directed at him. He became restless and decided he must have her but he can't. He went for her mom, instead. NOW HE HAS SG's attention. He also has a trophy..SG's mom. He may also have other trophies he took from the home, family photos, or lingerie from SG's old bedroom, for example.

MOTIVE will solve this case, imo. Obsessed stalker. Someone knows him and his devotion to SG. Watching the Today show daily, saving every program she is on, perhaps mentioning her during casual conversations once too often. This is not a 2 perp crime. This guy acted alone. MOO JMO

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I’ve read most of your posts and have to say you sound a little bit carried away with your theory! But having said that, I agree with some of it. - I think that is is a sole perp, the type of character you have described somewhat, however, I don’t think it is related to SG. I think it is someone who has been gearing up to commit an abduction and has picked out someone who he has seen as an easy target, isolated and vulnerable. He may be revelling in the attention but I don’t think that was part of the plan. I still think the ransom notes are a hoax, if they are from the actual kidnapper then they are part of a game not a genuine ransom demand.

LRinCA said:

People who live in Arizona seem to dress very warm in those temps. I'm one of them. If it gets to 60 I take a winter coat with me in the evening. I've seen roofers/landscape workers in the hottest Arizona temps wearing heavy clothing and neck balaclavas.

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Same, Phoenician here. 60's is cold to me. And true roofer's landscapers do tend to wear full sleeves and pants even in the summer, but mostly those are single layer to provide some sun protection (i.e. they don't do it for warmth in 115 deg). But unless it's like Flagstaff at night, wearing potentially two layers over your face and likely multiple layers over your body whilst performing a heist while a person is in the home (which would be expected at a house with a car present in the middle of the night) seems likely a pretty stressful situation that would make most people hot and sweaty.

I live in a city where you can get anything anytime. Except for lantana in February! I’ve grown it as an annual, but I suspect it’s a different variety.

Desert dwellers: is it typical for a sizeable segment of lantana to be so easily grabbed? It seemed dead or otherwise just lying in the garden bed. No pulling or tearing required to pick it up, like a golf tee. Is this weird or expected for this plant?

steff13 said:

It's in this thread, but it's also here:
Post in thread 'Nancy Guthrie, 84, missing - last seen in the Catalina foothills area on Jan 31, 2026 - MEDIA, MAPS, TIMELINE thread *NO DISCUSSION*' Nancy Guthrie, 84, missing - last seen in the Catalina foothills area on Jan 31, 2026 - MEDIA, MAPS, TIMELINE thread *NO DISCUSSION*

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steff13 said:

Actually I was mistaken, now that I look it up the sheriff said that a neighbor called the same day she went missing. So who knows what they were thinking?

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missy1974 said:

From the article:
During one lull in the story on Feb. 16, ***** spent time speculating about a business card that he had seen that was left on Nancy Guthrie’s front door. The card was from a case manager for Arizona’s Adult Protective Services division.

***** speculated that there might have been an open case of elder abuse.

There was not.

A Republic reporter saw the card on Feb. 3 while taking photographs at the front door. A reporter called the phone number listed. An agent said the card was left after Nancy Guthrie’s disappearance, not before.

It was left so Nancy Guthrie, an older adult who lived alone, could contact the agency if she needed services once she returned home safe.

https://www.azcentral.com/story/news/local/arizona/2026/02/17/media-circus-nancy-guthrie-coverage/88683133007/

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Thank you both.

I did miss where the info about the APS card was clarified, and appreciate being able to put that in the fact pile.

There has been a lot of back and forth about a single image of the masked man which I'll call the No-Backpack Image
Note that the backpack straps and gun are not visible:



So far I've seen people claim:

• "The FBI used AI to manipulate the image"
• "Media used AI to manipulate the image"
• "This is proof that the FBI actually have more videos"
• "It's a different person altogether"

I don't know if any of those are true, but what I've done to check is downloaded each of the images and videos released by Cash Patel (Director of the FBI) from this source to compare them, and I've discovered a few interesting clues:

• The No-Backpack image is not a single frame from any of the three videos released to the public (altered or not) - The man has a completely different pose.
• There is no meta data showing the original date created (if there was, it was lost when the image was uploaded to X)
• The "Nest" logo is not shown (is it cropped?)
• The image size is tiny - resolution is 367 x 546 pixels - this is basically just a thumbnail
• No-Backpack man is not casting a shadow from the moonlight before he steps under the cover of the the porch (in the other videos, his shadow is obvious)

FIrstly, I have overlaid the No-Backpack image (367x546) over one of the FBI's other full resolution images (1536x2048) to compare the size. This makes the size / resolution disparity quite obvious:



Next I have grabbed a capture from one of the videos that shows the man, roughly in the same position, before he enters the porch (right).
No-Backpack man (left) casts no shadow. Backpack man (right) casts an obvious shadow from the Moonlight
(Note I have cropped/resized images to match each other)

For reference Moonrise on that night was around 4:54 p.m. local time, and moonset was about 6:44 a.m. the next morning.
At around 2am the moon (almost full, 98% brightness) was in the west (to the left looking out of the porch)
The weather in Tuscon at the time was clear. So there should have been bright moonlight all night.

So what does this tell us ?
1. No-Backpack image was taken at a different time

• Without meta data we don't know the date/time
• We can probably assume that it was before the other videos (since it looks like he eventually ripped the doorbell camera off its mount and took it with him)
• It could have been the same evening, but a random cloud was obscuring the moon at that moment
• It could be days before (a reconnaissance mission perhaps?)

2. The properties of No-Backpack image is significantly different to the other images/videos

• It's cropped (not full frame - refer to the image with the hand/glove - way more of the brick archway is visible)
• It is very low resolution - meaning it might be a thumbnail or a still image from a notification

Thumbnails are a graphic representation of one or multiple files, like when you're looking through a photo gallery with 18 images shown on your screen, each of those small images are a single, low resolution thumbnail file.
Without them, you would only see a list of filenames.

Notification images are like a snapshot of an event that might be shown in the Nest App. Again, low resolution.
With Thumbnails and Notification images, the metadata does not necessarily reflect the time that the original image was captured. So Google/FBI may not know what time/date the No-Backpack event actually happened.

3. Was the image manipulated/altered to remove the backpack/gun?
- We can't tell for sure, but I think it's very unlikely.

4. Is No-Backpack image from another video that hasn't been released?
- Probably not. If the FBI had a full resolution video, it would not make any sense to crop and resize a single frame to release to the public in such low resolution).

That's all I have. I hope it clears things up a little, and I apologise for the essay.

SaraSmile said:

At this point, they are tracking down all leads, no matter how farfetched.

JMO

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Yes, it would be remiss not to, I agree.

warp3dwing said:

Do you think the suspect forced entry or was able to access the home by other means?

If entry wasn’t forced, it might narrow down the possibilities. Was a key used? I know LE seldom releases that kind of info.

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I thought the perp went in the back slider, whether locked or not, these are easy to get in.
Just an idea, NG locked the front door, but may have left a back door slider unlocked.
People often “ lock up” this way in safe neighborhoods.

JMO

Did you already discuss the book that SG released in feb24 where she talks about a kidnapping game her aunt used to play with her and her sister?

Orion96007 said:

[My question re: this is.... Has this person EVER in the past shown interest and worry of his neighbor to have her checked on? Why on THIS day?]

IMO of course, and just random thoughts.... Just seems strange to me

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As a person who also has a licensed duty to warn I can tell you that it would not be uncommon for LE to bring APS in on the 1st requested welfare check. It does appear that very initially into this event LE may have considered it an elderly person with dementia wandering etc due to several statements by family that NG was sharp as a tack. IMO. These have been posted much earlier in this thread

Scooby-Doo said:

View attachment 646057

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You know CeCe Moore was just chomping at the bit to get on this case!

GO CeCe, GO!

I believe it's coming soon for the perp!

milkshakedonkey said:

OK, the "no longer talking about the ransom messages" thing is odd to me.

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I'm glad to see it finally occurred to him, or was explained to him, that talking about everyone one of those emails could change someone's behavior, or reveal something he didn't intend to.

flakesofsnow said:

Did you already discuss the book that SG released in feb24 where she talks about a kidnapping game her aunt used to play with her and her sister?

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What???? Could you please expand?

Yesterday I was with my 84 year old mother, she was scared to sit out side a store while I went to get the car. Very sad!

warp3dwing said:

I live in a city where you can get anything anytime. Except for lantana in February! I’ve grown it as an annual, but I suspect it’s a different variety.

Desert dwellers: is it typical for a sizeable segment of lantana to be so easily grabbed? It seemed dead or otherwise just lying in the garden bed. No pulling or tearing required to pick it up, like a golf tee. Is this weird or expected for this plant?

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I have it in my yard now in California and it's easy to pull but it has thick woody stems as opposed to herbaceous.

flakesofsnow said:

Did you already discuss the book that SG released in feb24 where she talks about a kidnapping game her aunt used to play with her and her sister?

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Yeah, that was discussed here in the first few days/first week of the case IIRC, when talk of the book was first going round online. Personally, I think it’s completely unrelated to NG’s disappearance.

JMO

SaraSmile said:

I thought the perp went in the back slider, whether locked or not, these are easy to get in.
Just an idea, NG locked the front door, but may have left a back door slider unlocked.
People often “ lock up” this way in safe neighborhoods.

JMO

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Her neighbor commented on this very early on.

BellaToothless said:

As a person who also has a licensed duty to warn I can tell you that it would not be uncommon for LE to bring APS in on the 1st requested welfare check. It does appear that very initially into this event LE may have considered it an elderly person with dementia wandering etc due to several statements by family that NG was sharp as a tack. IMO. These have been posted much earlier in this thread

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Someone reported concerns to Adult Protective Services about an elderly relative of mine who lives alone, believing she might be at risk of financial exploitation. The matter was fully investigated and resolved. However, APS still checks in on her from time to time. I’m trying to understand whether this kind of ongoing follow‑up is typical when APS knows someone is living alone, even after a case is closed.