• #40,541
Yeah perhaps at some point they pulled out a cloth to stop the flow of blood.
I wonder what leads they are following about where Nancy may have been held . Surely this person didn’t use their own home . Would it be in an abandoned home or in an air bnb or such ?

This kidnapping if unintended is extremely lucky and if pre planned extremely well planned. How long will the family have to wait for answers?
I don't think it's a kidnapping. I think it's an abduction and, to me, it has an 'LE' feel to it in that whoever it is knew what NOT to do. They either watch a lot of true crime TV re investigations and what is involved with evidence, etc or they have some first hand knowledge in their background before they went off the deep end and gave in to settling a score. NG may be collateral damage so-to-speak This may not be directed to the Guthries at all but to someone else entirely.
MOO
 
  • #40,542
I respectfully disagree on your take, but you seem to want to believe what you already believe, which is fine.

Cameras in dark areas operate on IR light, emitted from the camera. This is only good for a short distance, unless there is another light source on the subject, etc. Nest cams IR is spec'd at 20 feet, and really details at only 10 ft.

Now everything is context. The footage you are discussing is from a house much closer to the street (I believe miles away from NG neighborhood), with somewhat obscured views of cars going by. Still nothing definitive. Moving objects are also tricky on security cameras, even the license plate reader and cameras I have in my driveway have trouble at cars approaching at 5mph.

Now NG's house had a set back/driveway of 50 yards approx? with obscuring plants. You can see in the Nest doorbell videos if you look past the masked man that even if a car was parked at the end of the driveway you would not get a good look, and on IR it would be blurred/indistinguishable, especially without smart IR. And that doorbell cam's frame of view is blocked by the brick vestibule.

I don't know what your experience is, but even with IR emitter floodlights and cameras mounted down the driveway on NG's property getting a view of a car that's definitive would be very very difficult. IF she had flood lights and they were recording in regular mode, that would be much more detailed, btw, which is where the darkness factors in.

Now add in the privacy landscaping, in the video I posted of NG's neighborhood at night you can not only see the darkness which LIMITS THE REACH OF IR, but also the large hedges and privacy plants that OBSTRUCT RECORDING, certainly at that distance (see NG driveway with car parked in broad daylight, can't tell the make/model and that's at shorter distance). Also take a look at the neighborhood and the distances, the actual sight lines, etc. No camera reaches out that far. None.

And there are no street cams that record in the entire area, they are all DOT cams, not police, not flock. That has been confirmed by PCSD.

PICS ATTACHED TO ILLUSTRATE ABOVE POINTS
Two retired PC LE on STS said there are some cameras in Tucson, including red light cameras and license readers.
 
  • #40,543
I respectfully disagree on your take, but you seem to want to believe what you already believe, which is fine.

Cameras in dark areas operate on IR light, emitted from the camera. This is only good for a short distance, unless there is another light source on the subject, etc. Nest cams IR is spec'd at 20 feet, and really details at only 10 ft.

Now everything is context. The footage you are discussing is from a house much closer to the street (I believe miles away from NG neighborhood), with somewhat obscured views of cars going by. Still nothing definitive. Moving objects are also tricky on security cameras, even the license plate reader and cameras I have in my driveway have trouble at cars approaching at 5mph.

Now NG's house had a set back/driveway of 50 yards approx? with obscuring plants. You can see in the Nest doorbell videos if you look past the masked man that even if a car was parked at the end of the driveway you would not get a good look, and on IR it would be blurred/indistinguishable, especially without smart IR. And that doorbell cam's frame of view is blocked by the brick vestibule.

I don't know what your experience is, but even with IR emitter floodlights and cameras mounted down the driveway on NG's property getting a view of a car that's definitive would be very very difficult. IF she had flood lights and they were recording in regular mode, that would be much more detailed, btw, which is where the darkness factors in.

Now add in the privacy landscaping, in the video I posted of NG's neighborhood at night you can not only see the darkness which LIMITS THE REACH OF IR, but also the large hedges and privacy plants that OBSTRUCT RECORDING, certainly at that distance. Also take a look at the neighborhood and the distances, the actual sight lines, etc. No camera reaches out that far. None.

And there are no street cams that record in the entire area, they are all DOT cams, not police, not flock. That has been confirmed by PCSD.

PICS ATTACHED TO ILLUSTRATE ABOVE POINTS
Nah, I'm enjoying reading all the discussion, it's interesting to hear people bring up their own ideas and experiences. I do believe you :)

Unless he was the luckiest criminal ever, I hope he was caught on camera somewhere, even if it wasn't directly by her house. I'm sure they got the silver SUV idea (speculation since C and LD both drive silver SUVs) from some workable footage somewhere.
 
  • #40,544
Thinking about this more. Could the blood pattern shown in the bottom right corner of the image below be a partial handprint? Maybe pinky and ring fingers on Nancy's right hand and the side of her palm? If so, she could've been on hands and knees here, and coughing blood straight down.

View attachment 648845

What's interesting is that immediately adjacent to those print marks (whatever they are), there are intact blood drops. So, if the pattern was caused by a hand or a shoe or whatever, those nearby drops would've been deposited after that print was left.

I can almost imagine two separate blood trails on the porch, which could explain why the blood is so all over the place and not just one dripping line from the door to the driveway. Could Nancy have entered and exited the porch from the pavement and not via the front door?

ETA: Perhaps her left hand was placed on the tile just off the mat (3rd column from right, 2nd row from door), and that's why the spatter doesn't appear in that spot, although you'd think it would.
Throwing this out there. I work with stained glass and cut myself frequently. Different injuries do different things. That thin drop spatter looks exactly like a pattern I once got when the blood was dripping off my hand, and I brought my fingers up then gave it a flick shake straight down. Big drops fell off and a thin pattern spatter happened. Lots more blood drops ensued. I'm not saying this is what happened here, but if you were fireman's carrying someone and blood was dripping off a hanging hand, and you didn't want it on you, you might hurriedly shift or shake the hand or the hand could have been hit by a closing screen security door resulting in that same movement. Just a thought.

The path makes sense coming out the door (sweep out to the side the door opens on, then move to the center), and if the suspect were carrying NG and she was a little heavy for him, the staggered drops could also make sense. JMO. I'd like to see where the drops ended, but that isn't likely to happen.
 
  • #40,545
IDK I am trying to visualize a new theory based on your blood spatter analysis.
Two separate blood trails, NG comes onto the porch and exits the porch via the pavement. Does not go out the front door. So we have to think about how did she get to the pavement.

Could what you see be explained by NG coming out the front door, falling backwards or struggling back to the house. Then being dragged or carried forward again? So it was not a straight line, but back and forth?

Some times as data comes in we have to rethink things. The data tells the story. We cannot make the data fit the story. So I want to think about what you are saying and what others say about it.
It certainly makes more sense that she went out the front door. I can't think of a good reason not to go that route. It'd be rare for the front door to be, say, locked with a keyed deadbolt and the suspect didn't have access to the key. I doubt Nancy's doors are set up that way. Perhaps it was happenstance that blood missed the threshold and hit the mat instead. After all, there really isn't that much blood.

I've circled two areas in black that could be possible partial shoeprints.

porch_tile_blood_diagram_v3.webp

Here's the topmost one:

Screenshot 2026-02-27 at 18.11.22.webp

And the lower one:

Screenshot 2026-02-27 at 18.40.25.webp

What's kind of interesting is these are really the only blood marks that aren't just a vertical drip (apart from the blood on blood circular pattern). They have a direction. The top pattern "points" toward/away from the biggest blood pool, and the lower pattern "points" toward/away from the second largest blood area. If we treat these patterns as loci for arcs, these larger droplet areas fall on those arcs.

To me, this might point toward a fireman carry type of situation with the blood trailing behind the suspect.

Also, in the topmost pattern, we see an imprint next to undisturbed droplets. Either those droplets had already dried when the imprint was made (unlikely), or additional drops fell afterward. That might imply something like what you suggest - some sort of struggle or at least some sort of shuffling around as he maneuvers Nancy.

Of course, there's a 99% chance I'm overthinking all of this.

On a totally different topic, I noticed there's a wreath to the left of the door. Seems like that would've been a better choice for covering the camera than a fist full o' lantana!
 
  • #40,546
Throwing this out there. I work with stained glass and cut myself frequently. Different injuries do different things. That thin drop spatter looks exactly like a pattern I once got when the blood was dripping off my hand, and I brought my fingers up then gave it a flick shake straight down. Big drops fell off and a thin pattern spatter happened. Lots more blood drops ensued. I'm not saying this is what happened here, but if you were fireman's carrying someone and blood was dripping off a hanging hand, and you didn't want it on you, you might hurriedly shift or shake the hand or the hand could have been hit by a closing screen security door resulting in that same movement. Just a thought.

The path makes sense coming out the door (sweep out to the side the door opens on, then move to the center), and if the suspect were carrying NG and she was a little heavy for him, the staggered drops could also make sense. JMO. I'd like to see where the drops ended, but that isn't likely to happen.
Absolutely. I definitely am leaning more toward the fireman carry theory for those reasons you specify. The sweeping/arcing makes more sense to me that someone walking under their own power.
 
  • #40,547
But amazingly, in the dark, did not step on any of the drops???
I can't remember who it was, but someone theorized that there might be square patterns in a few of the drops that might be indicative of a pattern on a shoe sole. JMO/MOO
 
  • #40,548
When my Mom died, I was in charge (only child) I needed to clean out her lovely home etc etc. Anyway, I was told by the insurance company when I went to renew her policy in my name as executrix as I was winding up probate, that It was going to be DOUBLE the premium because it was unoccupied. Honestly, they didt want to even insure me. But, I was in and out for several months, so sort of occupied. Same thing with my father in laws death. Just settling a regular estate is bad enough. With NG it's truly Limbo. My husband said in law school the worst course was wills, probate and estates. He said it was the make or break for many. This entire case regarding missing NG and the ins and outs of the estate would be a fabulous essay question on the bar exam. JMO
Luckily, SG is wealthy enough to self-insure the property and not worry about any of that if it were to come to that. As of now I doubt the premiums are going up because she is just considered missing-- what if she were in the hospital for a couple months or on vacation overseas? The house would technically be unoccupied but the insurance company wouldn't consider it so.

With trusts set up the designated trustee can likely make decisions on behalf the trust. Technically, the trust owns the house. And right now they aren't doing anything legally binding like selling the property-- they are just putting up cameras and installing a security system. I don't think the estate lawyers need to get involved for that, or even a power of attorney.
 
  • #40,549
It certainly makes more sense that she went out the front door. I can't think of a good reason not to go that route. It'd be rare for the front door to be, say, locked with a keyed deadbolt and the suspect didn't have access to the key. I doubt Nancy's doors are set up that way. Perhaps it was happenstance that blood missed the threshold and hit the mat instead. After all, there really isn't that much blood.

I've circled two areas in black that could be possible partial shoeprints.

View attachment 648901

Here's the topmost one:

View attachment 648884

And the lower one:

View attachment 648899

What's kind of interesting is these are really the only blood marks that aren't just a vertical drip (apart from the blood on blood circular pattern). They have a direction. The top pattern "points" toward/away from the biggest blood pool, and the lower pattern "points" toward/away from the second largest blood area. If we treat these patterns as loci for arcs, these larger droplet areas fall on those arcs.

To me, this might point toward a fireman carry type of situation with the blood trailing behind the suspect.

Also, in the topmost pattern, we see an imprint next to undisturbed droplets. Either those droplets had already dried when the imprint was made (unlikely), or additional drops fell afterward. That might imply something like what you suggest - some sort of struggle or at least some sort of shuffling around as he maneuvers Nancy.

Of course, there's a 99% chance I'm overthinking all of this.

On a totally different topic, I noticed there's a wreath to the left of the door. Seems like that would've been a better choice for covering the camera than a fist full o' lantana!
So did the abductor lock the door behind them?
 
  • #40,550
I believe it was OldCop who theorized a while back something like a turn and a pause while exiting the door. Like if you were making sure the door shut behind you, though that’s not the only possibility. JMO
I haven't the slightest idea. I suppose the condition of the inside of the house and the status of the front door and screen door should help validate or disprove this theory.

I do feel like a straight line walk from the front door to a car would show a different blood pattern. Likewise, if Nancy were over the suspect's shoulder or even being carried out some other way, I imagine we'd still see a straight-ish trail of blood. I think the blood tells a slightly more complicated story than "out the door to the car." But I haven't a clue what it is. What're your thoughts?
I’m attaching a copy of @warp3dwing’s excellent graphic which I rotated 180° to give a perspective of exiting Nancy Guthrie’s front door from inside and a copy of a photo from Fox News Digital which shows the front door of her home. Entering from the front the door knob is to your right. Exiting it is to your left. Some folks have speculated PG is left handed. Picture him in the doorway facing out. He has Nancy over his left shoulder in a fireman’s carry. He reaches across his body and opens the door with his right hand and pushes it outward. He pivots right holding on to the door as he steps out, which would swing Mrs Guthrie to the left of the front door, head down. He pulls the door closed behind him stepping out on to the porch still facing more to the right. He then brings his stride forward towards the street. He does not step in Mrs Guthrie’s blood in this scenario. Thoughts?
 

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  • #40,551
  • #40,552
Along this line of thinking why didn't this guy just load NG into her own car shielded from view inside her garage? Use her car and abandon it later.
1. did not have the keys?
2. might leave his own vehicle behind- people have gotten used to their theoretically being >1 person but we do not know that
 
  • #40,553
IMO - Based off of this print you marked, and the fact that law enforcement has said the backpack and holster were from Walmart, I feel like this shoe from Walmart resembles the rectangular print? Total IMOO speculation...The square blood print impressions could also have been from Nancy's shoe leaving the house...Suspect photos in media.
Re: the square print impressions ^
 
  • #40,554
I feel like Nancy could have been unconscious and loose bodied as she was being carried out , hit her face/mouth/nose on the door jam, it doesn't seem like anyone was screaming or anyone heard anything. I feel like she could have been drugged and then removed from the home. maybe this just feels more humane to me..I mean this guy isn't Dexter..but I think she hit her face coming out. mOO
 
  • #40,555
I respectfully disagree on your take, but you seem to want to believe what you already believe, which is fine.

Cameras in dark areas operate on IR light, emitted from the camera. This is only good for a short distance, unless there is another light source on the subject, etc. Nest cams IR is spec'd at 20 feet, and really details at only 10 ft.

Now everything is context. The footage you are discussing is from a house much closer to the street (I believe miles away from NG neighborhood), with somewhat obscured views of cars going by. Still nothing definitive. Moving objects are also tricky on security cameras, even the license plate reader and cameras I have in my driveway have trouble at cars approaching at 5mph.

Now NG's house had a set back/driveway of 50 yards approx? with obscuring plants. You can see in the Nest doorbell videos if you look past the masked man that even if a car was parked at the end of the driveway you would not get a good look, and on IR it would be blurred/indistinguishable, especially without smart IR. And that doorbell cam's frame of view is blocked by the brick vestibule.

I don't know what your experience is, but even with IR emitter floodlights and cameras mounted down the driveway on NG's property getting a view of a car that's definitive would be very very difficult. IF she had flood lights and they were recording in regular mode, that would be much more detailed, btw, which is where the darkness factors in.

Now add in the privacy landscaping, in the video I posted of NG's neighborhood at night you can not only see the darkness which LIMITS THE REACH OF IR, but also the large hedges and privacy plants that OBSTRUCT RECORDING, certainly at that distance (see NG driveway with car parked in broad daylight, can't tell the make/model and that's at shorter distance). Also take a look at the neighborhood and the distances, the actual sight lines, etc. No camera reaches out that far. None.

And there are no street cams that record in the entire area, they are all DOT cams, not police, not flock. That has been confirmed by PCSD.

PICS ATTACHED TO ILLUSTRATE ABOVE POINTS
Your analysis sounds right on to me. The recording that was released yesterday from outside the wall surrounding a home, within a feet of the road.
 
Last edited:
  • #40,556
It certainly makes more sense that she went out the front door. I can't think of a good reason not to go that route. It'd be rare for the front door to be, say, locked with a keyed deadbolt and the suspect didn't have access to the key. I doubt Nancy's doors are set up that way. Perhaps it was happenstance that blood missed the threshold and hit the mat instead. After all, there really isn't that much blood.
BBM

Yes but the data (evidence) tells us the story of what happened, whether it makes sense or not to us. So we look at the data and base the story of what happened on that. What would best explain the blood drops and pattern? Then we go from there to figure out what happened.
 
  • #40,557
I’m attaching a copy of @warp3dwing’s excellent graphic which I rotated 180° to give a perspective of exiting Nancy Guthrie’s front door from inside and a copy of a photo from Fox News Digital which shows the front door of her home. Entering from the front the door knob is to your right. Exiting it is to your left. Some folks have speculated PG is left handed. Picture him in the doorway facing out. He has Nancy over his left shoulder in a fireman’s carry. He reaches across his body and opens the door with his right hand and pushes it outward. He pivots right holding on to the door as he steps out, which would swing Mrs Guthrie to the left of the front door, head down. He pulls the door closed behind him stepping out on to the porch still facing more to the right. He then brings his stride forward towards the street. He does not step in Mrs Guthrie’s blood in this scenario. Thoughts?
In the door video, he is clutching the gun holster in his left hand- grabbing at the doorbell camera with his right....I would guess (?) the gun hand is the dominant hand ....but just a guess. Is it possible he could not find a lefty holster and that kind of led to his funky carry position (looks like a righty holster) or is the lantana right hand the dominant one?
 
  • #40,558
  • #40,559
I’m attaching a copy of @warp3dwing’s excellent graphic which I rotated 180° to give a perspective of exiting Nancy Guthrie’s front door from inside and a copy of a photo from Fox News Digital which shows the front door of her home. Entering from the front the door knob is to your right. Exiting it is to your left. Some folks have speculated PG is left handed. Picture him in the doorway facing out. He has Nancy over his left shoulder in a fireman’s carry. He reaches across his body and opens the door with his right hand and pushes it outward. He pivots right holding on to the door as he steps out, which would swing Mrs Guthrie to the left of the front door, head down. He pulls the door closed behind him stepping out on to the porch still facing more to the right. He then brings his stride forward towards the street. He does not step in Mrs Guthrie’s blood in this scenario. Thoughts?
Great idea to rotate the image! Just that one change of perspective is really helpful.

Do you think the patterns shown here are partial shoeprints? If so, would that mean the suspect might have been on the left side?
 
  • #40,560
I don't think it's a kidnapping. I think it's an abduction and, to me, it has an 'LE' feel to it in that whoever it is knew what NOT to do. They either watch a lot of true crime TV re investigations and what is involved with evidence, etc or they have some first hand knowledge in their background before they went off the deep end and gave in to settling a score. NG may be collateral damage so-to-speak This may not be directed to the Guthries at all but to someone else entirely.
MOO
Your post really got my mind turning and led me to consider an entirely different possibility. What if the person seen on the porch never actually went inside the house?

Could it be that their role was simply to be captured on the Nest camera, dressed in intimidating clothing and a mask, to deliberately steer law enforcement toward the idea of an unknown “boogeyman,” rather than toward what truly happened?

In my theory, the individual who may have actually been inside with NG was someone familiar to her, a person who had legitimate reasons to be in and out of the home. This could have been someone who worked for her or assisted her in some capacity, which would naturally explain the presence of their DNA inside.

Personally, I don’t believe this was an abduction or kidnapping. Sadly, I believe it was a murder.

That’s why the porch individual stands out to me. If this theory were true, their purpose may have been to play a role, to create a frightening, cinematic distraction. And they certainly looked like a character straight out of a movie. MOO.
 
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