Nancy Guthrie, 84, (mother of TODAY Show host Savannah Guthrie) missing - last seen in the Catalina foothills area on Jan 31, 2026

GlobeFireCandle said:

Burglary gone wrong - doesn’t make sense as surely they would have gone in while she was out.

Murder to silence her or for revenge - why take the body?

Kidnap for ransom - no proof of life given and why would they take an elderly woman with medical needs who would need a lot of care?

The only thing that makes sense to me is targeted abduction with the aim to sexually assault and murder. I can’t see any other reason to remove her from the house - unless she is on the run from the Mob and it’s all an elaborate plan to fake her own disappearance/death!

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But why choose a high profile in the community elderly victim, in an upscale neighborhood, where it’s going to cause an uproar, and whose daughter is a wealthy politically well-connected celebrity?

Isn’t that just asking for extra trouble when there are plenty of vulnerable elderly females' to SA with no family or less asset rich, less involved families?

Anyone in that neighborhood is going to be missed and justice sought out for imo.

I just feel like there is more opportunity elsewhere without so much risk if it was just a SA motivation.

Unless, as speculated, NG was targeted as the object of a SA obsession so no risk was too great for the objective.

It seems it was simply a monetary reward for NG as the motivation, what with the wealthy daughter, and the expectation, with a doting daughter, of reward for the kidnapping.


all imo

factseeking said:

This is big if true, it makes me feel it's much more likely the ransom note is from the kidnapper. Do you have a link to where you saw this information?

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I looked again today and don't see it. The gist of what I read was that the note was sent on Sunday but not seen by the recipient until Monday. I hope it wasn't a mistake that has now been scrubbed. There is already so much we can't be sure of, I would hate to add more.

Warshawski said:

I do apologise because I know this has been discussed & explained numerous times. . however I’m very confused - are these nest cameras ‘hard wired’ or do the batteries require charging ?

Do we need the actual camera because Nancy didn’t have a subscription that stores all the recording ?

So the information has to be obtained from the device / camera itself ?

Why then does it need wifi if it’s not ‘uploading’ somewhere ?

But if only on the device, isn’t this limited, and where it records over the previous ?

Or are we hoping that it contains just the immediate of that night / morning before it lost its wifi connection.. . Why does it need wifi if it’s not ‘uploading’ somewhere ?

Did the perp know she had no subscription, hence taking the camera ? I guess breaking it wouldn’t destroy its local storage .

And how did they get the previous pics of the perp if everything has to come from the device, but the device is missing ?

As I said, I’m confused. Sorry

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I’m so glad you asked about all of this, because I’m wondering the same thing.

SMK777 said:

Nancy Guthrie was abducted by up to FIVE people, retired former Pima County detective claims

Nancy Guthrie was abducted by up to FIVE people, ex-detective claims

Savannah Guthrie's 84-year-old mother was abducted from her $1 million Tucson, Arizona home in the early hours of February 1.

www.dailymail.co.uk

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I wonder how he came up with up to five people being involved? Why five?

Jade said:

BBM

Law Enforcement has been still actively asking for “actionable” tips and video footage from the public.

Day 45 of Nancy Guthrie case: Investigators analyzing images and videos
Mar 17, 2026​

....
Investigators continue to seek tips and leads in relation to the disappearance of Guthrie. PCSD has received hundreds of new tips in the Guthrie case since March 1.
…
PCSD continues to ask homeowners in the surrounding community to submit relevant footage in relation to the case. The video footage can be submitted through a PCSD link.
More than $1 million dollars in reward money is on the table. That includes $102,500 form 88-CRIME, $100,000 from 1-800-CALL-FBI and $1,000,000 from the Guthrie family.
In reference to the case, 88-CRIME has received 2,445 anonymous tips. The tips have been submitted through the 88-CRIME phone line, 88crime.org and the P3 Tips mobile app.

Day 45 of Nancy Guthrie case: Investigators analyzing images and videos


imo

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Thank you, this makes me feel a bit better.

GlobeFireCandle said:

Burglary gone wrong - doesn’t make sense as surely they would have gone in while she was out.

Murder to silence her or for revenge - why take the body?

Kidnap for ransom - no proof of life given and why would they take an elderly woman with medical needs who would need a lot of care?

The only thing that makes sense to me is targeted abduction with the aim to sexually assault and murder. I can’t see any other reason to remove her from the house - unless she is on the run from the Mob and it’s all an elaborate plan to fake her own disappearance/death!

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There was a confrontation, her body carries the suspect's DNA. Maybe under her fingernails, on her skin or on her clothes. I think NG is the crime scene. Not wanting to leave the evidence behind, he took her out into the desert and will never tell anyone where.

On the topic of motive... I have come full circle on this, having toyed with a number of possibilities like many of us have. Long post incoming.

To me the scenario that makes the most sense is this: kidnapping for ransom by inexperienced people who ran into the biggest issue in these cases: how to return the person and get paid without getting caught. Hard to do.

Long version below. All MOO obviously.

2 guys from a work crew either in the neighborhood or even at Nancy's house realized that an elderly woman with a famous daughter lived all alone and could be an easy target. These guys might spend entire days or even weeks working around the neighborhood and realized many people are lax with security, overly trusting and would make easy targets. Maybe they even worked at Nancy's house and saw things that made them think this would be relatively easy.

They concoct a plan: what if we kidnapped her? We could demand millions and score a huge payday! No more doing (whatever work they do). If we use crypto we can get away and not be tracked.

They do some research online. So they decide: kidnap Nancy, then contact the family (this is key later), demand crypto, get paid, drop her off somewhere public where she would be safe but where she would be all alone so they could get distance between them and her before letting the family know she has been released. They would be out of the country by the time law enforcement is even involved. This would all be a 24-36 hour ordeal and by Monday night Nancy is home, they are counting their millions somewhere out of the US and never have to work 12 hour days in the 100 degree sun ever again.

I could imagine they planned to leave her in some sort of building or sheltered area where she is locked in but given water and maybe something to eat to keep her alive. They drive 10-12 hours away, likely across the border and deep into Mexico. THEN they tell the family where she is. By then they are long gone. Thus the supposed "12 hours" I think TMZ mentioned early on. Out of the reach of American law enforcement.

And rich people have plenty of money. They'll earn it back by Friday. Again their thinking in this scenario.

They are either guys who have only done low level crimes or maybe don't even have a record. They tell each other they will be very careful, they aren't going to seriously hurt anyone, they just want money. They have grandmothers too. They aren't murderers, but they have to be threatening and scary so that they are taken seriously. They know Nancy might be slightly injured during the initial struggle but remind each other they need her alive and well and not to get stupid.

On some level they might even justify it to themselves as rich people have plenty of money so it won't even really matter to the family to pay. And they deserve some of it. They're tired of working on rich people's fancy houses for peanuts.

To them, the hardest part is getting inside the house undetected. Once in, she's 84 and can't move well, so they will get her, grab some basics to keep her well, and get her out. It will be the middle of the night and these guys say to each other that once they're in and have her secured the rest is easy (so they think).

On the night of the kidnapping they easily get inside. Of course, Nancy fights back as much as she can and in the course of them subduing her she is slightly injured and bleeds. IMO the blood pattern seen on the porch isn't consistent with a serious wound. When someone is on blood thinners a relatively minor would can bleed like crazy, depending on the location. So I personally have never seen the porch blood spatters as necessarily meaning Nancy was gravely injured. Blood is never good, of course, but these guys in my scenario would likely have gone in with the idea that this is about money, not murder.

Back to the scenario. How do they stop her from screaming? One of the first things these guys do in subduing Nancy is taping her mouth shut like they see in movies. This stops her from screaming but also stops her from telling them she needs her medicine to survive and they never think to ask. This could explain why meds were not taken. They had no idea and it never crossed their minds to try to see if she needed meds. They want to get out of there ASAP.

Hearing aids, phone, and watch would always stay put. Everyone knows "no electronics." That does not take a genius.

Maybe they ask for numbers (written down) for family members but Nancy will not comply by writing anything down for them or is just too terrified to do anything. Or like many of us, she doesn't know their actual phone numbers and just clicks their contact in her phone to call them. But they are NOT going to let her open her phone to look. She would just need to "accidently" tap her daughter's name and the phone rings. Getting a random hang-up call from your mother's phone in the middle of the night would raise alarms. And no way are they touching her phone. So that doesn't work. Finally they just give up and figure they will solve that later and it's time to go.

They leave through the front door because it's closest to the vehicle. They walk with Nancy in between them. They have to stand for a few seconds by the front door while they close it, thus the relatively larger amount of blood there. Nobody is really tending to Nancy's wound because the priority is to get out of there or they don't even notice that she is bleeding because it's so dark.

Afterwards they are stuck. Now what? They get to wherever they went, likely somewhere relatively close by. They aren't going to drive for hours with a kidnapped elderly victim in their vehicle.

They decide the best way to contact the family would be through the media. They have no other way. Nancy eventually tells them (once they get her to wherever they took her) that she does not remember anyone's number, she just uses her contacts in her phone. So they send messages to local media and TMZ, knowing it will get out there. But now police are also involved.

Now they have an enormous problem that all kidnappers face: how to complete this transaction without being caught?

Think about it. At that point, how could they release Nancy in a way that would not lead to their capture?

Whatever she is wearing would have some sort of DNA on it from wherever she was kept. Or the vehicle she was driven back in. She would be able to tell police at least something about the captors. How many, voices, accents, male/female, etc. Exactly what happened.

The kidnappers have lost the element of surprise/secrecy.

The whole idea was to get paid by the family quick, drop her off somewhere she would be ok but also not found for hours, get across the border and deep into Mexico, then let the family know where she is. Sure, cops will be involved then but it's too late. They are long gone and the bitcoin is moved into their other accounts.

Now the FBI is involved. Trump is talking about it. They did not plan for this. And Nancy is frail. How can they get paid without going to jail for the rest of their lives?

In short it went off the rails quickly.

Then there's the opportunists clouding the water and messing up their plan even more with their letters to TMZ. The longer this goes the harder and harder it gets to actually follow through. The more time Nancy spends with them the more she learns and picks up on. The more chance they will slip up and something will lead back to them.

Now they're stuck. IMO that's the best explanation.

From there, of course only negative outcomes follow which go without saying.

This is why kidnapping for ransom is so rare. It's basically impossible for the average criminal, or even advanced criminal, to pull off. You need advanced logistics and (for lack of a better word) an organization.

These professional kidnappers also have a reputation to live up to, crazy as it sounds. Their entire business depends on the victims being returned relatively unharmed. Otherwise nobody will pay in the future. They see it as a lucrative business, not a murder ring. But they have multiple, extremely experienced people, backed up with safe houses, hackers, the whole nine yards.

And they do not start broke. They have tens of millions of dollars to spend on making sure everything works out and having the right people. The average criminal has none of this, which is why these almost always fail when undertaken by amateurs.

All just my opinion.

MsWarrior55 said:

That was my first thought when we heard she was missing. I suspect this person has a history of violence towards the elderly or at least has worked with elderly people, possibly in a retirement home. He may have had a triggering event that led to this crime.

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That is an excellent possibility. An aide who was terminated from a nursing home for abusive/inappropriate behavior .
Would that event make it to LE? Well maybe no-human resources could squint their eyes to avoid seeing mandated reporting behavior.

And this termination was the triggering event that led to an escalation in behavior.

Makes me think of EAR. He was content with rape, until he was fired from his cop job. Then he started to kill his victims …

GlobeFireCandle said:

Burglary gone wrong - doesn’t make sense as surely they would have gone in while she was out.

Murder to silence her or for revenge - why take the body?

Kidnap for ransom - no proof of life given and why would they take an elderly woman with medical needs who would need a lot of care?

The only thing that makes sense to me is targeted abduction with the aim to sexually assault and murder. I can’t see any other reason to remove her from the house - unless she is on the run from the Mob and it’s all an elaborate plan to fake her own disappearance/death!

Click to expand...

rbbm i'm leaning towards my theory being a kidnap for ransom and she passed away (then they still tried with the ransom letter to see if they could get anything without POL because why not), but this is a fair question. my only explanation -- the celebrity factor to SG. or maybe they didn't know so much about NG to know she had serious heart issues, or were dumb enough to think they could still do it.

i don't think these are super smart or sophisticated criminals and it's just been luck so far -- i don't think they have a direct tie to NG, but maybe tangentially, and stranger* crimes are notoriously harder and take longer to solve. but their luck will run out eventually.

*i would consider someone who knows someone who knows NG to be a stranger even though there would be a link there

moo

Sadi said:

I wonder how he came up with up to five people being involved? Why five?

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He didn't give any specifics. Just that logistics made it impossible for one person to commit the crime. I would label that estimate as a WAG informed by years of experience. I notice he said UP TO, so it could have been 2 people or 5. That leaves a big margin for error, imo.

Bruxer said:

I hadn't heard that they new exactly what holster he bought. Where did you read that please?

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Sadi said:

I wonder how he came up with up to five people being involved? Why five?

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'I believe there are anywhere between two to four accomplices,' Dabb told Parade.

'The logistics of something of this magnitude is too much for one person to handle in my professional opinion based on the facts as I know them right now.'

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Sadi said:

I wonder how he came up with up to five people being involved? Why five?

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That's a good question!
But I do agree with him that the crime was too complex for one or two people.

shonyakay said:

https://twitter.com/x/status/2023935060437856608

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Oh Harvey. If that is what they went by that is a huge assumption and an uninspiring view into the state of the investigation.

So let me get this straight, they are assuming it is the Walmart brand holster that many online speculated (even though there are exact clones sold in popular other outlets) and got a list of recent Walmart sales.

Mind you that style of holster has been selling for years.
Mind you it is as generic poly design as you can get and visually indistinguishable clones are currently sold online, see below.
Mind you these are popular in sale bins of gun stores and yard sales, ebay etc.
Mind you the idea of backtracking a mismatched large frame revolver holster to a completely different type of gun is a needle in a haystack
And all that is provided the gun was even real and not a replica (which is maybe why he just got a cheap mismatched holster).

i was thinking the other night about Occam's Razor and how it's always brought up in unsolved crimes. So what's OR with this case? i have a hard time thinking of the most likely/obvious scenario, but what i do think is the most straightforward reason is SG. whether it's a fan, or someone who knows someone who worked for NG, or simply having seen their segment going to the restaurant, i think NG being the mother of a wealthy well known journalist is very much relevant here.

could it be a coincidence? of course. OR says nothing about the rare being impossible. maybe they heard of or saw NG and targeted her for some reason completely unrelated to her connection to SG and the perp(s) don't know SG from Adam. Do i think that's likely? i don't.

moo

stmichael said:

Oh Harvey. If that is what they went by that is a huge assumption and an uninspiring view into the state of the investigation.

So let me get this straight, they are assuming it is the Walmart brand holster that many online speculated (even though there are exact clones sold in popular other outlets) and got a list of recent Walmart sales.

Mind you that style of holster has been selling for years.
Mind you it is as generic design as you can get and visually indistinguishable clones are currently sold online, see below.
Mind you these are popular in sale bins of gun stores and yard sales, ebay etc.
Mind you the idea of backtracking a mismatched pistol holster to a completely different type of gun is a needle in a haystack
And all that is provided the gun was even real and not a replica (which is maybe why he just got a cheap mismatched holster).

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Would your opinion change if the perp(s) accidently left that holster at the scene (ala BK's knife sheath) like @Ghostwheel opined?

Cats Against Crime said:

They leave through the front door because it's closest to the vehicle. They walk with Nancy in between them.

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One minor quibble with your post is the absence of regular smearing in the blood droplets seen on the porch tiles (and, according to Banfield’s sources, inside the house). I think she was carried – fireman’s carry, as described here.

I also think it’s likely she didn’t survive long at all, at least not well enough to communicate. Otherwise, there’d have been some information in the ransom note proving that she was alive – some piece of information only she could provide.

shonyakay said:

Would your opinion change if the perp(s) accidently left that holster at the scene (ala BK's knife sheath) like @Ghostwheel opined?

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How does that apply in this context?

They are searching a generic unlinked item to another unknown item that it's not even made for.

BK knife was a very specific item (A very distinguishable Marine Ka-Bar, which comes with a very distinguishable leather sheath). I got one as a gift. I could ID one from any picture. He was a try-hard that couldn't help himself and had to get a Ka-Bar and left a leather porous DNA-sponge Ka-Bar stamped sheath.

In this case the guy appeared to carry a common looking unremarkable semi-auto small frame pistol loosely tucked into a universal poly holster made for a large frame revolver. He also had it looped on his belt so it would not fall off (BK didn't have the sheath on a belt as intended but carried it by hand like a splerg). His gun could have fallen out, and yeah that would be interesting. He didn't even have the button snap safety strap of the hostler over the grip of the gun to keep it from falling out as intended but slid off on the holster (see pics)

But in this case it's like getting a generic cheap guitar case commonly sold at a big box store for years to carry what looks like rifle on video footage, and then investigating everyone who bought a generic cheap guitar case in a Walmart (in the area?) and asking around FFLs for random 1,000s of sales of some kind of unspecified rifle.

Sadi said:

I wonder how he came up with up to five people being involved? Why five?

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I know he is the expert--but disagree with that high a number. I originally thought it could be 3-5, but now think only 1-2.
Not clear if he thinks all 5 were on site.

--If it were as high as 5....one would have sung by now. IMO.
--If it were as high as 5---that dramatically increases the odds of more DNA being left behind. IMO. But the story on DNA is the opposite. Apparently stranger DNA was not found in abundance.

This quote by the former detective stood out to me: 'The logistics of something of this magnitude is too much for one person to handle in my professional opinion based on the facts as I know them right now.'

What logistics? Poster stmichael has highlighted many times on here how that neighborhood and surrounding area has so many blind spots vis-à-vis cameras that record any footage.

It would be very easy for one perp to drive in--break in(if a door or window wasn't open)--abduct--drive out..... without being seen/caught.
If I were mentally deranged/evil I could have done the same thing with ease. And so could many on this board. The real story here is the ease with which one could operate under the cover of darkness and no threat of being picked up by cameras. All MOO.