Theory Stalker Theory

[tricia]

Hey everyone
Do you think a stalker is behind the kidnapping?
If so, is it a stalker connected to Savannah, or one connected to Nancy directly?
Whatever stalker theory you have, please post it here.

 

[Megnut]

I think the perp stalked NG's house. Casing it, perhaps intending to break in on other occasions but backing off until the morning of the crime, when he returned intent on disabling cameras and floodlights. Whatever his intention, he intended not to be caught.

JMO

 

[RedHaus]

Hi Tricia.

Thanks for asking.

My top theory is it was a solo perp; an isolated incel type who was a stalker of SG's, with a motive to get SG's attention or seek revenge for lack of attention by:

1. abducting NG who unexpectedly passed a few days later while the ransom letter fiasco unfolded (so no proof of life);

2. killing and removing NG from her home to add to SG's suffering because she'd never know the status of her Mom; or

3. abducting NG with the intent to commit M-S shortly after or later that day - drove off a mountain cliff into a deep ravine or into a deep lake perhaps in AZ, NV, UT, CA, or CO.

IMO, as I've stated on the NG MT, it's door #3 because it best explains the lack of evidence and the silence. With that, I also believe the ransom letters were from someone(s) else.

ETA: tag for @Napoli who is an ardent supporter of the stalker theory.

 

[RedHaus]

FWIW, here is a reprint of my 2/15/26 post on the NG MT... This is a detailed version of my #2 scenario, above.

"I've been pondering about the "NG Stalker Perp" OPs and I, this morning, have profiled as theories.

What if the Stalker was NOT local, as is the presumption by LE, it appears? What if the Stalker was from far away in another state or country?

What if they work remotely such as for a tech company so they can continue working wherever they are as long as they have WiFi?

What if the Stalker planned this possible horrific act, to control SG's emotions and get her attention, for a long time? What if the Stalker rented a short term rental and car (Grey SUV?) for a month or three to refine their plan?

What if they killed NG, and since not local, they carted her body far away from NG's home - into the desert or mountains? And what if those desert and mountains were in UT, CO, TX, CA, NV, MX?

What if their Tucson short term rental had been reserved to end the morning of 2/1 to coincide with their exit strategy?

What if their car rental and flights to / from the area were not from Tucson, but an airport ~2-8 hours away, perhaps with the dumping location on the way from Tucson, departing 2/1?

IOW, if it was a deranged SG stalker, did they come into town stay a while and then leave with no local trace and with NG far away?

All speculation. My imagination's queries."

 

[Napoli]

I think it is a stalker who has formed an unhinged relationship in his mind with SG. i dont think he ever OVERTLY stalked SG. He might have sent a few comments on websites like I loved your show. He is a frustrated and sad possibly teacher in a high school or college who teaches English. He is under 40. he is not local. he wanted to be closer to SG and probably fantasized he could keep NG hostage and they could discuss SG together. He wasnt counting on NG being frail.

He watches the Today show and fell in love with SG. He thinks everything she says on TV is a coded message to him. SG was off for several weeks in December and January for surgery. He became more obsessed and didnt know why she didnt contact him to let him know where she was going. My stalker is compulsive and semi delusional at times but thinks he and SG's lives were destined to be intermingled. He might have a little altar in his home with some SG memorabilia. He has never been to the prom and never had a serious girlfriend. Worshipping from afar is safer.

Look and listen to the Instagram posts by SG. All the clues you want are right there. She was responding to whatever was in the ransom notes.

The ransom notes were a distraction. He wanted SG's attention. He enjoyed watching her twist because in his misguided mind, she did not welcome him into her life. The November homecoming video sent him over the edge. He possibly teaches at a junior college and was on break during January.

He is bookish, a little nerdy, and retreats to a fantasy land that is comprised of TV and movies, especially old movies.

They will find a little altar in his home of news clips and a poster or something about SG. He has a rigid mother and no woman would be good enough for him.

My perp didnt rob NG's home. He probably took a few mementos. family photos...maybe a piece of lingerie from SG's old bedroom He took the one valuable thing there. Nancy.

 

[StarryStarryNight]

I think it is a stalker who has formed an unhinged relationship in his mind with SG. i dont think he ever OVERTLY stalked SG. He might have sent a few comments on websites like I loved your show. He is a frustrated and sad possibly teacher in a high school or college who teaches English. He is under 40. he is not local. he wanted to be closer to SG and probably fantasized he could keep NG hostage and they could discuss SG together. He wasnt counting on NG being frail.

He watches the Today show and fell in love with SG. He thinks everything she says on TV is a coded message to him. SG was off for several weeks in December and January for surgery. He became more obsessed and didnt know why she didnt contact him to let him know where she was going. My stalker is compulsive and semi delusional at times but thinks he and SG's lives were destined to be intermingled. He might have a little altar in his home with some SG memorabilia. He has never been to the prom and never had a serious girlfriend. Worshipping from afar is safer.

Look and listen to the Instagram posts by SG. All the clues you want are right there. She was responding to whatever was in the ransom notes.

The ransom notes were a distraction. He wanted SG's attention. He enjoyed watching her twist because in his misguided mind, she did not welcome him into her life. The November homecoming video sent him over the edge. He possibly teaches at a junior college and was on break during January.

He is bookish, a little nerdy, and retreats to a fantasy land that is comprised of TV and movies, especially old movies.

They will find a little altar in his home of news clips and a poster or something about SG. He has a rigid mother and no woman would be good enough for him.

My perp didnt rob NG's home. He probably took a few mementos. family photos...maybe a piece of lingerie from SG's old bedroom He took the one valuable thing there. Nancy.

This actually makes a lot of sense.
I don’t know about some of the detail profiling(maybe/ maybe not), but this wouldn’t surprise me.

 

[Napoli]

FWIW, here is a reprint of my 2/15/26 post on the NG MT... This is a detailed version of my #2 scenario, above.

"I've been pondering about the "NG Stalker Perp" OPs and I, this morning, have profiled as theories.

What if the Stalker was NOT local, as is the presumption by LE, it appears? What if the Stalker was from far away in another state or country?

What if they work remotely such as for a tech company so they can continue working wherever they are as long as they have WiFi?

What if the Stalker planned this possible horrific act, to control SG's emotions and get her attention, for a long time? What if the Stalker rented a short term rental and car (Grey SUV?) for a month or three to refine their plan?

What if they killed NG, and since not local, they carted her body far away from NG's home - into the desert or mountains? And what if those desert and mountains were in UT, CO, TX, CA, NV, MX?

What if their Tucson short term rental had been reserved to end the morning of 2/1 to coincide with their exit strategy?

What if their car rental and flights to / from the area were not from Tucson, but an airport ~2-8 hours away, perhaps with the dumping location on the way from Tucson, departing 2/1?

IOW, if it was a deranged SG stalker, did they come into town stay a while and then leave with no local trace and with NG far away?

All speculation. My imagination's queries."

That woman BE interviewed yesterday said renters had moved out of the street 2 days before NG was snatched.

 

[RedHaus]

That woman BE interviewed yesterday said renters had moved out of the street 2 days before NG was snatched.

Yes, I wonder if LE has canvassed VRBO, Airbnb or extended stay hotels near NG's home, for solo men who stayed for 2 - 12 weeks, let's say, with rental departures of 2/1, and with no prior travel or stay history with those companies. And if they could cross match that fairly large set of solo men against rental cars with similar rental periods (2-12 weeks) from airports within a 6-8 hour drive (about a tankful of gas) from Tucson. Examples of airports within a 6-8 hour drive of Tucson (not counting Tucson or MX):

AZ - International
Phoenix International Airport (PHX): ~1.5–2 hours

AZ - Regional
Phoenix-Mesa Airport (AZA): ~1.5 hours drive
Yuma International Airport (YUM): ~4–5 hours drive
Flagstaff Pulliam Airport (FLG): ~4–5 hours drive
Prescott Regional Airport (PRC): ~3.5–4.5 hours drive
Grand Canyon National Park Airport (GCN): ~5.5–6.5 hours drive

CA:
Ontario (ONT), ~6-7 hours
San Diego (SAN), ~6-7 hours
Los Angeles (LAX), 7-8 hours

NM:
Albuquerque (ABQ), ~6-7 hours

Likely a wild goose chase, especially if access to these data is not readily available to LE. But if an investigator went down this rabbit hole, or had serious reasons to consider it at least, this is the sort of data I would think they'd want to analyze. IMO.

 

[Napoli]

My stalker is living in his parent's seasonal home right now. Probably in Colorado..Nancy is gone...and he is done. Or something like that. I am not locked into Colorado. He might still be in a seasonal home in Arizona and with NG..or she is buried there.

 

[No it's not]

Does anyone know if Savannah stayed with Nancy while she was recovering from her voice procedure?

Great question!! We don’t publicly know exactly how family visits/check-ins changed over the holidays and into January, but an offender might have perceived a shift in routine.

Savannah returned to Tucson for her “Homecoming” filming around October 17, with the segment airing on November 5. That may have been her last publicly known visit with Nancy and family. It is certainly possible she visited Tucson again over Christmas, but I have not seen a solid public source confirming a specific holiday visit. What is publicly clear is that she had been with family in Tucson not long before, and she posted a Christmas family photo in late December.

In any event, Savannah Guthrie’s vocal cord surgery and recovery period do overlap with the weeks leading up to Nancy’s disappearance. By itself, that does not suggest foul play. However, in a reportedly targeted case, it could still be relevant if the offender was aware of family routines, public visibility, or temporary changes in communication and availability. The most interesting overlap IMO is that investigators are reportedly focused on January 24 — one day after Savannah’s public return to Today.
That timing is notable, though it is not proof of a connection. It could also simply indicate that the offender began surveilling Nancy’s home on sequential weekends — January 11 and January 24.

Would an offender have perceived family routines as changed in January? Was he possibly planning or expecting SG to visit NG?

Let’s look at the timeline:

December 19, 2025 = Savannah Guthrie publicly announced she needed vocal cord surgery and would be off Today for a little while. (This likely marks the beginning of a period of reduced public visibility, recovery time, altered family routines)
January 5 = Savannah posted a recovery update (“All good!”), confirming the surgery had already occurred and she was in recovery.
January 11 = possible early surveillance during recovery period
January 23 = Savannah returns publicly
January 24 = possible follow-up surveillance immediately after return
January 31 / February 1 = abduction window

A cautious possibility is that the offender may originally have been hoping to see Savannah at Nancy’s house, watching for a visit, interested in something connected to Savannah, or fixated on the Guthrie family in a broader, celebrity-adjacent way.
If so, and if Savannah was not there, plans may have changed — yet the offender still decided to approach Nancy’s home, enter for some reason, take something, or take Nancy herself.

Important: This is only a theory. It is all IMO. There is no public evidence at this point proving the offender was after Savannah or that Nancy was a “substitute.” But in a targeted case, I do think it is fair to consider whether the focus may have been broader than Nancy alone.

ALL IMO - MOO , as always

-Nin

 

[whatzthebuzz]

I think this was someone that was obsessed with SG, and the focus turned to stalking NG. Did they ever stalk SG, or were they just obsessed? IMO it's hard to say. I do think it's someone local. This could've been someone from a long while ago, that SG inadvertently slighted. The initial attempt could have been to steal something SG related in NG's home, and things escalated.

I find it difficult to attempt to profile this individual. Could be anyone who tends to have too much free time.

Well that's this week's thoughts; it could change tomorrow.

 

[RedHaus]

FWIW, here is a post from the a MT with video reporting that investigators were looking into a stalker scenario...

Post in thread 'Nancy Guthrie, 84, (mother of TODAY Show host Savannah Guthrie) missing - last seen in the Catalina foothills area on Jan 31, 2026' Nancy Guthrie, 84, (mother of TODAY Show host Savannah Guthrie) missing - last seen in the Catalina foothills area on Jan 31, 2026

 

[RedHaus]

"Savannah Guthrie recounted a heartbreaking conversation with her brother when she asked him if their mother's abduction could have been because of her. He said, "'I'm sorry sweetie, but yeah, maybe,'" Savannah Guthrie recalled through tears."

Nancy Guthrie, 84, was abducted in the early hours of Feb. 1, authorities say.

Savannah Guthrie questions if mom's abduction is because of her: 'Too much to bear'

"Today" show host Savannah Guthrie is speaking out in her first interview nearly two months after her mother, Nancy Guthrie, was kidnapped.

abcnews.com

via ABC News App

 

[IJustJoined4ThisCase]

FWIW, here is a reprint of my 2/15/26 post on the NG MT... This is a detailed version of my #2 scenario, above.

"I've been pondering about the "NG Stalker Perp" OPs and I, this morning, have profiled as theories.

What if the Stalker was NOT local, as is the presumption by LE, it appears? What if the Stalker was from far away in another state or country?

What if they work remotely such as for a tech company so they can continue working wherever they are as long as they have WiFi?

What if the Stalker planned this possible horrific act, to control SG's emotions and get her attention, for a long time? What if the Stalker rented a short term rental and car (Grey SUV?) for a month or three to refine their plan?

What if they killed NG, and since not local, they carted her body far away from NG's home - into the desert or mountains? And what if those desert and mountains were in UT, CO, TX, CA, NV, MX?

What if their Tucson short term rental had been reserved to end the morning of 2/1 to coincide with their exit strategy?

What if their car rental and flights to / from the area were not from Tucson, but an airport ~2-8 hours away, perhaps with the dumping location on the way from Tucson, departing 2/1?

IOW, if it was a deranged SG stalker, did they come into town stay a while and then leave with no local trace and with NG far away?

All speculation. My imagination's queries."

I think the speculation that he’s local is that this person was there allegedly January 11, January 24, and January 31-February 1 and knew the area well enough to supposedly navigate it with no cell phone navigation (or no traceable/could be a burner).

Brian Entin said something about how, 40 days later, he still needed to use his phone to avoid getting lost out there.

Now Israel Keyes did at least 1-2 murders like this, flying to a place and selecting a target so it’s possible.

But it would be a long time to be gone from his home base. Many companies have limits on working from another state/country for longer than X and he did the stalking on the weekends implying to me someone who was off on weekends or only in town on the weekends?

 

[IJustJoined4ThisCase]

Great question!! We don’t publicly know exactly how family visits/check-ins changed over the holidays and into January, but an offender might have perceived a shift in routine.

Savannah returned to Tucson for her “Homecoming” filming around October 17, with the segment airing on November 5. That may have been her last publicly known visit with Nancy and family. It is certainly possible she visited Tucson again over Christmas, but I have not seen a solid public source confirming a specific holiday visit. What is publicly clear is that she had been with family in Tucson not long before, and she posted a Christmas family photo in late December.

In any event, Savannah Guthrie’s vocal cord surgery and recovery period do overlap with the weeks leading up to Nancy’s disappearance. By itself, that does not suggest foul play. However, in a reportedly targeted case, it could still be relevant if the offender was aware of family routines, public visibility, or temporary changes in communication and availability. The most interesting overlap IMO is that investigators are reportedly focused on January 24 — one day after Savannah’s public return to Today.
That timing is notable, though it is not proof of a connection. It could also simply indicate that the offender began surveilling Nancy’s home on sequential weekends — January 11 and January 24.

Would an offender have perceived family routines as changed in January? Was he possibly planning or expecting SG to visit NG?

Let’s look at the timeline:

December 19, 2025 = Savannah Guthrie publicly announced she needed vocal cord surgery and would be off Today for a little while. (This likely marks the beginning of a period of reduced public visibility, recovery time, altered family routines)
January 5 = Savannah posted a recovery update (“All good!”), confirming the surgery had already occurred and she was in recovery.
January 11 = possible early surveillance during recovery period
January 23 = Savannah returns publicly
January 24 = possible follow-up surveillance immediately after return
January 31 / February 1 = abduction window

A cautious possibility is that the offender may originally have been hoping to see Savannah at Nancy’s house, watching for a visit, interested in something connected to Savannah, or fixated on the Guthrie family in a broader, celebrity-adjacent way.
If so, and if Savannah was not there, plans may have changed — yet the offender still decided to approach Nancy’s home, enter for some reason, take something, or take Nancy herself.

Important: This is only a theory. It is all IMO. There is no public evidence at this point proving the offender was after Savannah or that Nancy was a “substitute.” But in a targeted case, I do think it is fair to consider whether the focus may have been broader than Nancy alone.

ALL IMO - MOO , as always

-Nin

I’ve been trying to see how the vocal cord surgery fits in all this. It’s almost like Savannah came back on the air and was supposed to do the Olympics and this person knew that and maybe tried to hurt her/keep her from that big moment and keep her from returning? It’s so odd. Hatred?

The Christmas photo - TC is holding a dog. In another photo, Nancy appears to be holding a similar dog. Is this Nancy’s, TC and AG’s, Savannah’s dog? Does their family just love this breed? How long has Nancy Guthrie’s dog been passed away? And if it’s recent like just 2 weeks before the kidnapping or so - was it a natural death (cancer, old age) or is there any chance at all the dog was poisoned?

This is going to sound silly but we’re on day 50+ so anything is possible - has anyone checked for where SG “fans” might hang out online? I found some Reddit threads commenting some descriptive things about her from “fans” of her work but searching those usernames didn’t give me much info (no one commented about her appearance and then also commented with Tucson recommendations for a restaurant or something or commented on the case the way BK is suspected to have for example.

 

[RedHaus]

I think the speculation that he’s local is that this person was there allegedly January 11, January 24, and January 31-February 1 and knew the area well enough to supposedly navigate it with no cell phone navigation (or no traceable/could be a burner).

Brian Entin said something about how, 40 days later, he still needed to use his phone to avoid getting lost out there.

Now Israel Keyes did at least 1-2 murders like this, flying to a place and selecting a target so it’s possible.

But it would be a long time to be gone from his home base. Many companies have limits on working from another state/country for longer than X and he did the stalking on the weekends implying to me someone who was off on weekends or only in town on the weekends?

Welcome to Websleuths, @IJustJoined4ThisCase! Glad to have the addition of your thoughts and insights!

 

[MCB1151]

I’ve been trying to see how the vocal cord surgery fits in all this. It’s almost like Savannah came back on the air and was supposed to do the Olympics and this person knew that and maybe tried to hurt her/keep her from that big moment and keep her from returning? It’s so odd. Hatred?

The Christmas photo - TC is holding a dog. In another photo, Nancy appears to be holding a similar dog. Is this Nancy’s, TC and AG’s, Savannah’s dog? Does their family just love this breed? How long has Nancy Guthrie’s dog been passed away? And if it’s recent like just 2 weeks before the kidnapping or so - was it a natural death (cancer, old age) or is there any chance at all the dog was poisoned?

This is going to sound silly but we’re on day 50+ so anything is possible - has anyone checked for where SG “fans” might hang out online? I found some Reddit threads commenting some descriptive things about her from “fans” of her work but searching those usernames didn’t give me much info (no one commented about her appearance and then also commented with Tucson recommendations for a restaurant or something or commented on the case the way BK is suspected to have for example.

BBM
Re: Christmas photo is apparently SG's dog, "Fetch". Fetch is an AussieDoodle. I know NG's dog, a "little black terrier", passed away and I can't find anything definitive and worth citing but allegedly the dog passed away in December of last year. But if the dog really did die in December you have to at least consider the idea that if there WAS a true stalking situation, there's enough time between December and end of January to "confirm" the dog is definitely out of the picture. I haven't seen anything about the dog's COD and I feel like if it was anything that seemed suspicious even if just now in hindsight, it would have come out for discussion/speculation by now.

THAT SAID - now we're in my territory of some sort of "expertise" now that we're talking dogs lol

ANY dog is a crime deterrent. First off, most of them bark. A "little black terrier" is almost without a doubt gonna be a yapper. Terriers, especially the smaller guys, were bred initially to be vermin patrollers. Mice, rats, foxes, etc. So not only are they barkers, they are also bred to be EXTREMELY AWARE of the tiniest noises. They are actually pretty excellent burglar alarms.

Second, should someone decide to disregard the barking OR there's a terrier that doesn't bark (I mean, maybe they're deaf lol) at the sound of an attempted intrusion, no one wants to deal with a dog bite in the middle of an attempted crime. Terriers are also usually very protective of both their territory and their people. And sure, you could silence a dog mid-crime, but if you choose to shoot a dog, you've now added a gunshot to the noise. You could bring bear spray or something, but hitting a small dog where you need to hit them when it comes to spray is not an easy feat, plus you've already likely awakened the resident and they've gotten a jump on you at that point since you're dealing with the dog.

ALSO, since we know the size of the dog, smaller dogs tend to not want to get AS close to a threat, until it's time to really act (if they must). Despite the fact that so many act like they have no idea they're the size of large rodents, they actually do have enough instinct for self preservation that they maintain a decent distance from any threat because of their size.

EDIT: WELCOME!