Australia Samantha Murphy, 51, last seen leaving her property to go for a run in the Canadian State Forest, Ballarat 100km NW of Melbourne, 4 Feb 2024 #7

[ProfCluezo]

Goodness me, the ideas are flying this evening! Such bedazzlingly creative suggestions…. If I may add my musings to the mix, what is standing out to me as most intriguing about this case are the extensive improbabilities of almost every hypothetical scenario that is entertained… it’s almost like we are trying to solve a puzzle assuming the pieces fit within a single paradigm. However there are so many inconsistencies and irregularities that it seems almost like there are two puzzles rather than just one… or perhaps a 3D puzzle… ? Do we need to consider some kind of non linear paradigm…? I can’t help but feel there are major missing piece(S) of this puzzle which upend the possibilities we are currently considering…

Another thought is that the inconsistencies may be revealing something very important about the alleged offenders’ psyche - some kind of internal duality which is reflected in the perplexing nature of the seemingly incompatible puzzle pieces we are considering….?? Something along the lines of a Jekyll and Hyde, alter-ego type scenario where the alleged crime appears to have internally conflicting elements and modus operandi…?? Police are being (appropriately) tight lipped… However the more I think about this case the more my head spins… I feel there is a lot more critical info than what we currently have to work with… Hence why it doesn’t appear to be making sense…??!! JMO… MOO….

 

[TrunkImagine]

Australia does have feral pigs, and in some areas, in plague proportions.

Even with reported feral pig populations nearby, how would you guarantee the pigs would eat the body? Would you approach the group (praying they don't attack you too!) and leave her body with them? Or leave the body out in the open in the hope they find it and not someone else?

i just can't see this being the best way to dispose of a body, particularly given pigs do not consume teeth or hair and this (at a minimum) would be left behind as evidence.

 

[Sprinter]

haunting story, actually. thanks for sharing.

It does sound as if the mine shafts have a whole life of their own.
Are these mine shafts scattered EVERYWHERE in Australia, or more specific to this area of the country?

More specific in this area.

 

[Minaka]

Even with reported feral pig populations nearby, how would you guarantee the pigs would eat the body? Would you approach the group (praying they don't attack you too!) and leave her body with them? Or leave the body out in the open in the hope they find it and not someone else?

i just can't see this being the best way to dispose of a body, particularly given pigs do not consume teeth or hair and this (at a minimum) would be left behind as evidence.

Exactly, what you'd hope for is a farm that had thousands of them close by within say 30kms.
Given enough time they'll eat everything except anything artificial, such as bracelets, earnings etc.

 

[jjleroche]

Do you mean a revenge retaliation that the accused committed on behalf of his GF directed towards SMs daughter that was initially meant as a scare prank but became out of hand??
The comments by police in regards to the knowledge of both parties to each other did sound ambiguous…

No, I hadn't been thinking of the scenario which you've outlined nightpaw, although I imagine it's possible, and I agree that police comments regarding the knowledge of both parties to each other was ambiguous. I don't think it was a prank gone wrong.

I think it's quite likely that Jess and alleged perp's girlfriend know each other, and they could be/have been good friends. (As an aside, IMO the images of alleged perp's girlfriend, taken while tending to horses resembled Jess, except for hair colour.) I continue to believe that Jess's comments at the presser about Samantha's determination allude to an ongoing situation which was causing Samantha distress. IMO it is that situation which has eventually resulted in the murder of Samantha.

Entirely very general speculation on my part, using a very basic process of elimination (which could be way off the mark). The link below provides a rather interesting read.(JMO)

Love, Lust, Loathing Or Loot — What Makes A Killer Kill? | Oxygen Official Site

Understanding the motivation behind brutal murder is crucial, not only for investigators looking to make an arrest, but for victims’ families and the public at large. In the aftermath of a seemingly senseless killing, or string of killings, people are often left with one stupefied question: Why?

www.oxygen.com

Lust: Truth can be stranger than fiction, but realistically, I don't see "lust" as the driving motive in this case,
given that Samantha was a generation older than the alleged perpetrator.
If Samantha had been sexually assaulted, IMO that act would be driven by a desire for "power"
over Samantha (resulting from "loathing") rather than a lust for her.

Love: This was no mercy killing

Loot: Can't think of any possibility, where he could stand to gain financially (other than a hit, of course).
Alleged perp doesn't strike me as a "gun for hire" so to speak. Anyone needing a hitman would be more
likely to seek a candidate with a lower profile in the community. (JMO)

Loathing: IMO he may have perceived an action of Samantha (either directly or via a loved one) as being a affront to
him, causing him to seek revenge, OR he may have felt jealousy/resentment towards her - eg maybe a
member of his inner circle really liked Samantha, causing him to feel deeply aggrieved and vengeful.

MOO













ICBW but, I really don't see a was considering

 

[TrunkImagine]

Exactly, what you'd hope for is a farm that had thousands of them close by within say 30kms.
Given enough time they'll eat everything except anything artificial, such as bracelets, earnings etc.

You'd hope for a commercial farm with employees who would notice and report leftover, uneaten body parts?

 

[Dotta]

4 things which IMO are facts:

1. Deliberate Murder
(Police said so)
2. The accused acted ALONE
(Police said so)
3. It was NOT hit&run (by car)
(Police said so)
4. SM & the accused weren't known to each other,
they were strangers to each other
(Police said so)

Additional info by MSM:

The accused allegedly consumed alcohol & drugs Saturday night and was enjoying himself this way till 3 a.m.

 

[nightpaw]

No, I hadn't been thinking of the scenario which you've outlined nightpaw, although I imagine it's possible, and I agree that police comments regarding the knowledge of both parties to each other was ambiguous. I don't think it was a prank gone wrong.

I think it's quite likely that Jess and alleged perp's girlfriend know each other, and they could be/have been good friends. (As an aside, IMO the images of alleged perp's girlfriend, taken while tending to horses resembled Jess, except for hair colour.) I continue to believe that Jess's comments at the presser about Samantha's determination allude to an ongoing situation which was causing Samantha distress. IMO it is that situation which has eventually resulted in the murder of Samantha.

Entirely very general speculation on my part, using a very basic process of elimination (which could be way off the mark). The link below provides a rather interesting read.(JMO)

Love, Lust, Loathing Or Loot — What Makes A Killer Kill? | Oxygen Official Site

Understanding the motivation behind brutal murder is crucial, not only for investigators looking to make an arrest, but for victims’ families and the public at large. In the aftermath of a seemingly senseless killing, or string of killings, people are often left with one stupefied question: Why?

www.oxygen.com

Lust: Truth can be stranger than fiction, but realistically, I don't see "lust" as the driving motive in this case,
given that Samantha was a generation older than the alleged perpetrator.
If Samantha had been sexually assaulted, IMO that act would be driven by a desire for "power"
over Samantha (resulting from "loathing") rather than a lust for her.

Love: This was no mercy killing

Loot: Can't think of any possibility, where he could stand to gain financially (other than a hit, of course).
Alleged perp doesn't strike me as a "gun for hire" so to speak. Anyone needing a hitman would be more
likely to seek a candidate with a lower profile in the community. (JMO)

Loathing: IMO he may have perceived an action of Samantha (either directly or via a loved one) as being a affront to
him, causing him to seek revenge, OR he may have felt jealousy/resentment towards her - eg maybe a
member of his inner circle really liked Samantha, causing him to feel deeply aggrieved and vengeful.

MOO













ICBW but, I really don't see a was considering

Great post !! Thanks

 

[FromGermany1]

I continue to believe that Jess's comments at the presser about Samantha's determination allude to an ongoing situation which was causing Samantha distress. IMO it is that situation which has eventually resulted in the murder of Samantha.

Well, that! But I can't come up with a suggestion, what the "fight-thing" could be, Jess mentioned. Nothing, zero.

 

[Deleted member 340727]

4 things which IMO are facts:

1. Deliberate Murder
(Police said so)
2. The accused acted ALONE
(Police said so)
3. It was NOT hit&run (by car)
(Police said so)
4. SM & the accused weren't known to each other,
they were strangers to each other
(Police said so)

Additional info by MSM:

The accused allegedly consumed alcohol & drugs Saturday night and was enjoying himself this way till 3 a.m.

A young person can sober up very easily if they eat fast food and a fizzy drink. I'm not stating it in this case but I have seen it and I have discussed this fact many times with many people. There is a space of a few hours for this to be achieved in this case. MOO

 

[Toowong(s)]

Exactly, what you'd hope for is a farm that had thousands of them close by within say 30kms.
Given enough time they'll eat everything except anything artificial, such as bracelets, earnings etc.

Keep the ideas coming Minaka!
IMO nothing is off the table at this point. Get all the ideas on the whiteboard, do so without judgement of each others ideas, and then sit back and start to asses/sort which is more probable/plausible than which.

 

[Warshawski]

Would some kind person please be able to refresh my addled brain on these topics :

How soon after Samantha’s disappearance were we alerted to her 5pm phone Ping at Buninyong .

How soon after Samantha’s disappearance was Mt Clear area searched ?

Oh - I think I found that (19 days after )

https://www.skynews.com.au/australia-news/samantha-murphys-phone-pings-in-mount-clear-area-prompting-targeted-search-over-suspicious-disappearance-of-ballarat-mum/news-story/3809ca577fa1be2ecbe3570a06de918c

Uncle Allan said Buninyong was the only tower in operation that day - do any Ballarat locals know if that was the case ?

If they were down, then imo Buninyong will have pulled data from the whole area, imo , including Mt Clear - meaning a lot of analysis to do from that 1 tower’s data.

* IF true, and IF the accused worked on the electrical or cabling for the telco towers, would he have been aware of a planned ‘shutdown’ that Sunday ?

Where in Mt Clear are police suggesting this ‘deliberate attack’ occurred ?
I guess if it was a public area, then any disturbances from the said attack will have been well covered over by 23rd February.

Just my own personal thoughts.

 

[Deleted member 340727]

If you do find one, please don't post any details about it as it's just a theory and purely speculation

No no if we have to understand the interplay of theories we might as well see what you are talking about. Let's have a crack at it:

Berrybank Piggery, Windermere VIC, Australia - Farm Transparency Project | Australian animal protection charity

Berrybank Piggery is a pig farm located at Hendersons Road, Windermere VIC 3352, Australia.

www.farmtransparency.org

This one has a video

Berrybank Piggery, near Ballarat VIC, mid 2014

Captured at Berrybank Piggery, Windermere VIC Australia.

www.farmtransparency.org

Farmers call for drastic action over feral pig 'crisis'

Feral pigs are out of control across parts of NSW, with farmers calling for more resources to reduce...

www.thecourier.com.au

 

[Dotta]

Well, that! But I can't come up with a suggestion, what the "fight-thing" could be. Nothing, zero.

I understood this comment as Mum's strength to overcome any adversity.
Her resilience to difficult life's events.
In other words - Mum is a fighter.

In general sense.

These were the words of hope for distraught daughter.

JMO

 

[Knitty]

MOD NOTE: Tricia asks that as always, you keep your speculation within the bounds of the known facts of the case. Websleuths is crime forum, not a place to pitch your TV pilot.

 

[Toowong(s)]

4 things which IMO are facts:

1. Deliberate Murder
(Police said so)
2. The accused acted ALONE
(Police said so)
3. It was NOT hit&run (by car)
(Police said so)
4. SM & the accused weren't known to each other,
they were strangers to each other
(Police said so)

Additional info by MSM:

The accused allegedly consumed alcohol & drugs Saturday night and was enjoying himself this way till 3 a.m.

This is good Dotta. Back to basics. I’d like to add to this some ODD things that have not happened IMO:

1. Police divers have not searched any local water bodies that we are aware of.
2. Police stopped searching mine shafts and local forests within the first week.
3. Police have not borrowed cadaver dogs from interstate and deployed them in the search areas, that we are aware of.
4. Police have not released the make/model/rego of the accused car and appealed for sightings and CCTV of that vehicle on the alleged day of the alleged murder, and the weeks after (ie before they had the accused under surveillance).

My left field theory is the reason none of this is happening is that police actually have SMs body, undergoing forensics, DNA tests & autopsy, but are maintaining a charade of still searching, as a tactic to keep pressure on the accused to reveal the location, thus leading to an open and shut irrefutable case at trial. And maybe offering a downgrade to manslaughter in return (depending on the details of SMs demise).

Edit: note I said left field! I don’t actually believe this could be the case, just trying to think why all those seemingly standard procedures haven’t been followed, as far as we know. If this theory was in some way true, surely it would somewhat erode trust in police. So it’s in my “plausible” pile of theories, as opposed to “probable”.

Edit 2: Lending some weight to this left field theory is the fact police had the accused in custody for a day and a half without telling MSM. It was only the court listing to register the charge of murder that prompted this info into the public domain. Police are only sharing what they need to. As they should!

 

[Toowong(s)]

Would some kind person please be able to refresh my addled brain on these topics :

How soon after Samantha’s disappearance were we alerted to her 5pm phone Ping at Buninyong .

How soon after Samantha’s disappearance was Mt Clear area searched ?

Oh - I think I found that (19 days after )

https://www.skynews.com.au/australia-news/samantha-murphys-phone-pings-in-mount-clear-area-prompting-targeted-search-over-suspicious-disappearance-of-ballarat-mum/news-story/3809ca577fa1be2ecbe3570a06de918c

Uncle Allan said Buninyong was the only tower in operation that day - do any Ballarat locals know if that was the case ?

If they were down, then imo Buninyong will have pulled data from the whole area, imo , including Mt Clear - meaning a lot of analysis to do from that 1 tower’s data.

* IF true, and IF the accused worked on the electrical or cabling for the telco towers, would he have been aware of a planned ‘shutdown’ that Sunday ?

Where in Mt Clear are police suggesting this ‘deliberate attack’ occurred ?
I guess if it was a public area, then any disturbances from the said attack will have been well covered over by 23rd February.

Just my own personal thoughts.

Warshawaski, are you certain on the 5pm? I’ve not seen the time reported by police or in MSM, when police were asked by journos in the second presser police did not confirm a time, just said something vague like “during the day”. Will need to rewatch to get the exact words. IMO 5pm is likely a red herring but keen to understand why it keeps coming up!

 

[Deleted member 340727]

My left field theory is the reason none of this is happening is that police actually have SMs body, undergoing forensics, DNA tests & autopsy, but are maintaining a charade of still searching, as a tactic to keep pressure on the accused to reveal the location, thus leading to an open and shut irrefutable case at trial. And maybe offering a downgrade to manslaughter in return (depending on the details of SMs demise).

I don't believe that this is the case at all. The police would notify the public if they found SM body. The police would not hold a body for autopsy et al. unbeknownst to the public becauset this would create an absolute mockery of the system. If they found SM body it would be announced almost immediately within 1-2 hours after the body is secured. MOO

 

[Toowong(s)]

I don't believe that this is the case at all. The police would notify the public if they found SM body. The police would not hold a body for autopsy et al. unbeknownst to the public becauset this would create an absolute mockery of the system. If they found SM body it would be announced almost immediately within 1-2 hours after the body is secured. MOO

I tend to agree Wulfmoon - as I said myself left field and not probable. I’m just trying to think of a plausible theory for the lack of IMO what would be normal standard procedure for a missing body.

Have you got a theory why police haven’t bothered with divers, cadaver dogs, stopped searching mines and forest so early, and aren’t interested in public reporting sightings of the accused vehicle? And yet they believe they have enough to prosecute a murder charge.

I’m really perplexed by this. I think if we could work out why these seemingly standard things are not being done to help find SM, despite the big show of putting a huge team of experts on the case, there might be something interesting there.

 

[Warshawski]

Warshawaski, are you certain on the 5pm? I’ve not seen the time reported by police or in MSM, when police were asked by journos in the second presser police did not confirm a time, just said something vague like “during the day”. Will need to rewatch to get the exact words. IMO 5pm is likely a red herring but keen to understand why it keeps coming up!

I agree Toowong(s) and my apologies, I should have been clearer with that as it has only been media reports of a 5 pm Ping. Mind you, we’re supposed to be able to believe the media, so maybe that was ‘fed’ to them at the time.

I just can’t work out the sense of saying a 5 pm ping, if that time was not true.

TBH, I can’t work out sense in any of this.