AZ - Isabel Mercedes Celis, 6, Tucson, 20 April 2012 - #16

[Shelby2]

She stayed up with me when I was sick all the time, I guess its the least I can do, she didnt want to go to an after care home so I said lets go home to your own bed and I will help. Happy to do it she is a good mommy.

I hope she will be feeling better, I'm sure she will be more comfortable in her own bed!

 

[liz b.]

Agree with the odds except I put the odds of a hoax a little higher and rank a stranger abduction more likely than a cartel abduction because of the high number of sex offenders in the area.

I would put any type of Cartel at 100-1

An RSO or unregistered SO at 10-1

A sometime workman at the Celis' house at 10-1

A young male neighbor at 5-1

Accident at 50-1

JMO

 

[Prof]

I did so yesterday and haven't had a response. But thanks.

You are welcome

Here is what I found

"Locals who are describing the area or are members of the gyms and that sort of thing do not need to be verified.
We only verify people who know the players or have been named in the media, etc. "

http://www.websleuths.com/forums/showthread.php?t=106653


IMO if you are giving your local perspective, just note in your post that you live or work in the area...that sort of thing.

 

[mahoolin]

ok, have to ask - has the neighbor that "heard the male voices" been backed up by anyone else? Have there been any other neighbors that heard the barking dogs?

From the google shot - looks like there are 4 houses pretty close together. I can hear dogs barking WAAAYYYYY down the street from me and pretty much pick out which house it's coming from during the night when it's quiet. Do we have any other neighbor corroboration on the male voices or dogs barking other than the neighbor who seems to know all about the Celis'?

It concerns me that the majority of theories here are based on statements from 1 neighbor who seems to be really interested in getting her 15 min of fame. Correct me/forgive me if I'm wrong and there is corroboration, on screen or off from someone else to support all these. It'd make me feel better about things.

What if there were no male voices, no barking dogs, no speculation of cartels? Where would we start our theories?? Could be we're not getting anywhere because we've veered way off course by going the way some lady pointed down the road instead of reading the signs...

:couch:

just looking for Isabel lease:

 

[jennapuppy]

I did so yesterday and haven't had a response. But thanks.

Since you are an "unverified" local, I'll ask you:
Do you know when LE announced that they are looking into the family's finances? Sometimes we hear about this in the cases of a murdered spouse, but I can't think of when I've heard this mentioned during this course of a missing child investigation. TIA

ETA: as I was posting this, I believe Lark2 was answering.

 

[johnQpublic]

His name is Steve Raw. He's a techie sort who apparently wanted to use social media to spread the word. I've spoken w/him on a couple of occasions.

okay... still kinda odd he jumped right in on Day One and started a find Isa FB page when it JUST happened.

 

[Lava]

ok, have to ask - has the neighbor that "heard the male voices" been backed up by anyone else? Have there been any other neighbors that heard the barking dogs?

From the google shot - looks like there are 4 houses pretty close together. I can hear dogs barking WAAAYYYYY down the street from me and pretty much pick out which house it's coming from during the night when it's quiet. Do we have any other neighbor corroboration on the male voices or dogs barking other than the neighbor who seems to know all about the Celis'?

It concerns me that the majority of theories here are based on statements from 1 neighbor who seems to be really interested in getting her 15 min of fame. Correct me/forgive me if I'm wrong and there is corroboration, on screen or off from someone else to support all these. It'd make me feel better about things.

What if there were no male voices, no barking dogs, no speculation of cartels? Where would we start our theories?? Could be we're not getting anywhere because we've veered way off course by going the way some lady pointed down the road instead of reading the signs...

:couch:

just looking for Isabel lease:

Just a note...a lot of us had the cartel type theory before the neighbor even said anything. The area probably had a lot to deal with that.

 

[pieper4]

okay... still kinda odd he jumped right in on Day One and started a find Isa FB page when it JUST happened.

He's also appeared on radio shows. I think he's somewhat of an opportunist who cares. But I don't know him personally.

 

[jennapuppy]

It's been hugely unpopular to post this, and I have received a smackdown for even suggesting it, but to me, it is far more likely that this was an inside job engineered as some sort of way to make money rather than an outside cartel abduction.

I'll repeat what was reported weeks ago: LE was interviewing the kids' friends to see what they might have been discussing in the week before Isa went missing. I thought that was interesting and potentially significant.

Thank you, and I agree. That theory best fits some of unusual aspects of this case, and would also explain why Sergio seems so unconcerned on the 911 call. I can get a person trying to stay calm and focused during an emergency, but Sergio reports her "abduction" in such a casual manner. I show more emotion than that when I call to report that my cable has gone out!

 

[pieper4]

ok, have to ask - has the neighbor that "heard the male voices" been backed up by anyone else? Have there been any other neighbors that heard the barking dogs?

From the google shot - looks like there are 4 houses pretty close together. I can hear dogs barking WAAAYYYYY down the street from me and pretty much pick out which house it's coming from during the night when it's quiet. Do we have any other neighbor corroboration on the male voices or dogs barking other than the neighbor who seems to know all about the Celis'?

It concerns me that the majority of theories here are based on statements from 1 neighbor who seems to be really interested in getting her 15 min of fame. Correct me/forgive me if I'm wrong and there is corroboration, on screen or off from someone else to support all these. It'd make me feel better about things.

What if there were no male voices, no barking dogs, no speculation of cartels? Where would we start our theories?? Could be we're not getting anywhere because we've veered way off course by going the way some lady pointed down the road instead of reading the signs...

:couch:

just looking for Isabel lease:

I paid no personal mind to the neighbor or her statement for various reasons. My cartel angle is based on other information totally separate from her statement, pre-dates her statement, and it's certainly a case of connect-the-dots. I promise anyone who cares that I will gladly provide that information when/if an arrest it made. Until then I simply cannot do so. So it remains a "Local Rumor" and should be treated as just that.

 

[FORDANIEL]

okay... still kinda odd he jumped right in on Day One and started a find Isa FB page when it JUST happened.

His constant updates have not shown up today,on my FB page.Until yesterday every 4th or 5th wall posting,was from his site.
BTW,I am an RN,I work at a Tucson hospital,I do not know any of the people involved.

 

[pieper4]

Since you are an "unverified" local, I'll ask you:
Do you know when LE announced that they are looking into the family's finances? Sometimes we hear about this in the cases of a murdered spouse, but I can't think of when I've heard this mentioned during this course of a missing child investigation. TIA

ETA: as I was posting this, I believe Lark2 was answering.

No, I am afraid I never personally saw that MSM link. But I do believe it was yesterday. Only conjecture on my part, though. I'm sure someone will be along with a link.

 

[fancyface]

any new updates? ugg, I am getting like I was with the caylee trial.

 

[Prof]

I am not sure there were LE statements outside of the presser on Monday...
The transcript courtesy of Ingra can be found here
http://www.websleuths.com/forums/showpost.php?p=7922184&postcount=1290

 

[DhyanaAZ]

Here's something I really like to know .. Who the heck is Steve ??? Another Hinky thing I discovered is the Find Isabel Celis FB page was created on the 21st of April, would be interesting to find out what time, But it's interesting the sites are maintained by a guy name Steve... Who is He ???

I got the impression (this is guesswork on my part) that Steve Raw is the same guy who helped with another FB page during a wildfire last year near Sierra Vista, AZ. I could be way off base, but when I was reading comments on the Find Isabel FB page, i got the idea that he was the same guy..not to mention that when I checked his personal page, some of the same people from last year's Monument fire FB page are on his friends list. AGAIN JMO - the fire page from last year was soooooo instrumental in gathering community support, fundraising ideas, up to the minute news on evacuations, etc that it actually changed the community for the better. I was glued to that page for weeks. It seems that i've wandered off topic, but to get to the point I think that if it is indeed the same person he knows how powerful a tool social media has become and that it would help spread the word about Isa's disappearance. So he either started the page or offered to help admin, I'm guessing. All of this is supposition on my part.

The page mods have been very strict about only discussing such things as volunteer needs, requests for flyers, fundraiser info, etc. Nothing about the case is discussed publicly on that FB page.

 

[johnQpublic]

I was trying to think thru the cartel angle earlier and thought... maybe but I doubt it that there is some sort of setup that would give just cause to get feds into searching in Mexico on a non related issue and they refuse to let local pd in on the plot BUT idk it kinda sounds JFK to say the least.

 

[PAXIMUS]

No smackdown from me LAVA, your theory is as good as any and I know you have also kept an open mind about the other stuff. Keep up the good work like I said this isnt about seeing who is right in the end its a collective effort with all of us putting our heads together to see what the heck happened to the little one.

Some of you have done a really good job.

 

[gliving]

I think it's abduction by someone known to the family.

Someone from their church, school, ballpark, grocery store, etc. Someone had Isa in mind and took her. It's a local person who has reason to be in their circle.

2 to 1 odds.

 

[DhyanaAZ]

His constant updates have not shown up today,on my FB page.Until yesterday every 4th or 5th wall posting,was from his site.
BTW,I am an RN,I work at a Tucson hospital,I do not know any of the people involved.

I seem to recall a post on that page that they were merging the Find Isabel Mercedes Celis page and the Find Isabel Celis Page.

 

[pinkfly]

When it is dark out I feel such a sense of urgency for Isa. If she is still alive she must be so scared. Poor lil babe, she is such an innocent.