Case Review #1: Thread #12: LE Press Conference & Sheriff's Interview: July 2 2010

[BeanE]

Ultimately, if we are unable to find Kyron, this could turn into a cold case,” Staton acknowledged in an exclusive interview with The Oregonian. “At some point I’m going to have to make a final decision that this has got to move in a different direction.

http://www.oregonlive.com/portland/index.ssf/2010/07/sheriff_kyron_horman_search_at.html

What does Staton mean by this 'different direction'? If it turns into a cold case it has to go in a different direction?

 

[BeanE]

Asked about Kyron’s stepmom, Terri Moulton Horman, Staton said there’s no indication she’s been uncooperative. At a news conference yesterday, Kyron’s biological mother urged Horman to cooperate fully with the investigation.

“She has been cooperative throughout this process,” Staton said. “Other than that, I cannot comment.”

http://blogs.wweek.com/news/2010/07/02/statistics-on-the-search-for-kyron-horman/

 

[BeanE]

Staton teared up when talking of the emotional toll of the investigation on searchers and investigators.

“I don’t put a dollar figure on a child... and I won’t do that,” Staton said. “I will employ whatever it is that I have available to me to try to locate a child or someone that is vulnerable.”

http://www.oregonlive.com/portland/index.ssf/2010/07/search_for_kyron_horman_costs.html

 

[Billylee]

Ultimately, if we are unable to find Kyron, this could turn into a cold case,” Staton acknowledged in an exclusive interview with The Oregonian. “At some point I’m going to have to make a final decision that this has got to move in a different direction.

http://www.oregonlive.com/portland/index.ssf/2010/07/sheriff_kyron_horman_search_at.html

What does Staton mean by this 'different direction'? If it turns into a cold case it has to go in a different direction?

When I read the whole paragraph, I really think he is just talking about money. Something along the lines, that should this turn into a long-drawn out cold case, then a different money direction (more money) will be necessary. IDK, but that's how I take this.


“Ultimately, if we are unable to find Kyron, this could turn into a cold case,” Staton acknowledged in an exclusive interview with The Oregonian. “At some point I’m going to have to make a final decision that this has got to move in a different direction. But right now the way I’ve got it set up, and the way I’ve been working with investigations and the FBI, the other agencies, we will downscale appropriately based on their availability (and) the funding sources.”

 

[Billylee]

Jung: "And are these leads, for instance, just people who believe they saw Kyron or people who perhaps saw … they're reporting, 'Oh, I remember seeing Terri Horman at the school.'"

Staton: "A lot of the leads basically are … that have come in and some of them I've looked at, have been suggestions in a lot of cases. The citizens who live up in that particular segment of our community, they live there, they know that's going on. They know the dynamics and they provide information on things that we would never really think of regarding the dynamics of the community that help us to look at different areas or ask specific types of questions."

~~~snip

Jung: "In terms of what will move this investigation forward, are you looking just depending on leads coming in from the tip line, is it interviews with the family members, what are the elements you think can actually ...?”

Staton: "All of them that you've mentioned. New leads help us build off of old leads. If we've got a lead that we're working on — and this applies to any case — you've got a lead that you're working on and you haven't closed that lead out and there's another piece of information that comes in from another source that will add to that, it helps expand on that. And potentially that lead will take us somewhere. That's what we're looking for and that's one of the reasons why I'm talking with you. Keeping this out there — people think of things. And we do take suggestions — please, you communicate this to your readers. We take these suggestions that come in. It may not be a lead where you're pointing at an individual or a location or anything like that, but taking a suggestion."

What does that mean? Taking suggestions?

http://www.oregonlive.com/portland/index.ssf/2010/07/kyron_horman_investigation_tra.html

I guess he means this:

Staton said investigators are continuing to chase down leads. Those have included recommendations from neighborhood residents on where to look as well as suggestions from parents about child behavior based on their own experiences.

http://www.oregonlive.com/portland/index.ssf/2010/07/sheriff_kyron_horman_search_at.html

 

[Billylee]

http://www.oregonlive.com/portland/index.ssf/2010/07/sheriff_kyron_horman_search_at.html


There is nothing that we have received evidence-wise that has indicated to us that we need to change the course of this investigation. We still believe that, and we will perceive, that Kyron is alive and that we will be able to locate him.”

Almost a month later, they have received ZERO evidence to change the course of the investigation and so far as we know the course leads to TH at this point. AND in the same breath, they think Kyron is very possibly alive. I, at least, find that hopeful.

 

[Billylee]

From this article: http://blogs.seattleweekly.com/dailyweekly/2010/07/kyron_hormans_parents_upset_ab.php


The suspicions surrounding Moulton Horman aren't unwarranted. The police say her story doesn't add up. They've called her the "main focus" of their investigation. And Kyron's father divorced her earlier this week and filed for a restraining order after two mysterious 911 calls were placed from their home over the weekend.

Have I missed something? When did LE actually say that TH is their main focus, and when did THEY say her story didn't add up? Does anyone have a quote for that from a presser or something?

 

[BeanE]

From this article: http://blogs.seattleweekly.com/dailyweekly/2010/07/kyron_hormans_parents_upset_ab.php


The suspicions surrounding Moulton Horman aren't unwarranted. The police say her story doesn't add up. They've called her the "main focus" of their investigation. And Kyron's father divorced her earlier this week and filed for a restraining order after two mysterious 911 calls were placed from their home over the weekend.

Have I missed something? When did LE actually say that TH is their main focus, and when did THEY say her story didn't add up? Does anyone have a quote for that from a presser or something?

That's a blog. It's the blogger's opinion.

 

[Billylee]

That's a blog. It's the blogger's opinion.

Ah, silly me it does say seattle weekly blogs! I thought it was some legitimate published paper and when I read further it bases that statement on the WW's article saying that "sources" say etc. Doesn't quote LE at all. Thanks.

 

[Donjeta]

Every predator offends for the first time. At that point, it's not serial.

Yes, but he says "serial type", not just serial. It does not appear to be a serial event because there apparently are no other children abducted from Portland schools in a similar manner in the recent history, but if it's a predator, IMO it would be a serial type event almost by definition because I understand that predators are likely to reoffend and rarely become cured of their vice after molesting their first victim for the first time. If not caught they go on and commit a second crime and then a third.

It doesn't make sense to me to say that other parents have no reason to worry for their children if there is a predator on the loose who abducted a child from school in broad daylight as his first crime. On the contrary, he sounds very dangerous and if he gets away with it I'm pretty sure he'll reoffend, turning his first crime into a series of crimes.

 

[BeanE]

Yes, but he says "serial type", not just serial. It does not appear to be a serial event because there apparently are no other children abducted from Portland schools in a similar manner in the recent history, but if it's a predator, IMO it would be a serial type event almost by definition because I understand that predators are likely to reoffend and rarely become cured of their vice after molesting their first victim for the first time. If not caught they go on and commit a second crime and then a third.

It doesn't make sense to me to say that other parents have no reason to worry for their children if there is a predator on the loose who abducted a child from school in broad daylight as his first crime. On the contrary, he sounds very dangerous and if he gets away with it I'm pretty sure he'll reoffend, turning his first crime into a series of crimes.

Serial, serial type, serial event - they all have the same basic meaning to me - with a pattern. If there's a pattern, it has to have happened previously in order to see signs of that pattern.

Of course, those signs can be very subtle, and not be recognized until the crimes have been repeated more time than, say, twice.

Some things LE have said in this case, Staton specifically, don't make sense to me at all. Gates said he can't say it's not stranger to stranger. Staton says there are no signs it's serial/serial type/serial event. Then they say there is little for parents to be concerned about. I don't know. The statistics do support that there is little chance of a serial offender attacking your child in general.

I just don't know, Donjeta. To me, the loss of just one child is too much, the rape of just one child is too much. It is too great a loss, too great harm.

I knew the stats, yet, especially because my son was particularly vulnerable for reasons I won't go into, I worried terribly about him when he was young. Perhaps I went overboard about him - perhaps I go overboard about children in general. I just can't look at the stats and feel better. I just can't look at this case and feel better. If it's Terri, I wish to God LE would just say so, name her a POI at least, and then I would feel better, then I would worry less about the children in that community.

It always comes back to that one thing for me though - the loss of, or harm to, even just one child, is just too great. It's that horrible to me. It just is. If I haven't changed how I feel by my age, I'm just not going to change. And if that's silly, I'll just have to be silly. That's fine with me.

 

[Donjeta]

I don't see anything silly in that, BeanE.

I looked at the familywatchdog map of Portland offenders and it was rather sad. I suppose you could make the statistical argument that there are always so many dangerous people around us and our children that having one more or less doesn't make that much of a difference, statistically. If you have 148 offenders within one map square the statistical likelihood of being victimized by one of them is almost the same as if there are 148 plus the one who took Kyron.

But in this matter I think the statistics don't really get it. No matter how small the risk is, some children always get victimized and one is too many. What a huge difference that one extra offender makes in their lives .

 

[BeanE]

Found a phone interview with Sheriff Staton from July 1. Thought I'd note it here for reference.

Multnomah County Sheriff Dan Staton said in a phone interview that investigators believe Kyron is still alive "until we have information to the contrary."

"The investigation has not revealed anything to the contrary," he said.

He added that he could not comment on whether investigators consider Terri Horman -- or anyone else -- a person of interest in the case.

The sheriff said he's heard nothing to suggest Terri Horman's willingness to cooperate with police has changed, except that her decision to hire a lawyer "changes the dynamic on how we interact and at what level we interact."

Investigators have gotten more than 2,500 tips from a call line and interviews with people in the community, Staton said.

http://www.oregonlive.com/portland/index.ssf/2010/07/kyron_hormans_family_ask_for_s.html

 

[bessie]

Yes, but he says "serial type", not just serial. It does not appear to be a serial event because there apparently are no other children abducted from Portland schools in a similar manner in the recent history, but if it's a predator, IMO it would be a serial type event almost by definition because I understand that predators are likely to reoffend and rarely become cured of their vice after molesting their first victim for the first time. If not caught they go on and commit a second crime and then a third.

It doesn't make sense to me to say that other parents have no reason to worry for their children if there is a predator on the loose who abducted a child from school in broad daylight as his first crime. On the contrary, he sounds very dangerous and if he gets away with it I'm pretty sure he'll reoffend, turning his first crime into a series of crimes.

The way I see it, Donjeta, Staton's use of the term "serial type event" simply refers to a predator, period, and is not meant to distinguish between a first timer or an experienced one.

I'd venture to say that statistically the odds are quite low that a first time predator would be bold enough to abduct a child from a school full of people. Even for a veteran predator that's a stretch.

LE would factor that into their reasoning. Another factor would be the absence of reports from residents of a stranger previously spotted driving around the neighborhood, talking to children in the playground, perhaps, or attempting to lure a child into his car as so often takes place before an abduction.

Nor is there an eyewitness sighting of Kyron getting into a car or being driven away in a car. We do have the possible sighting of Kyron being in or around a white truck. The details are sketchy, but my impression is that there was no sense of urgency by the driver of the truck. A predator -- in the general sense of the word -- would've been out of there like a bat out of hell. (Also, details of the white truck sighting might not have been clear at the time of this interview.)

Then, as you mentioned, there have been no similar disappearances from other nearby schools.

When making a determination about whether or not Kyron was the victim of a random abduction -- meaning any child is a potential victim of Kyron's abductor -- LE would have weighed these factors and others I've overlooked, and found that the majority negate the assumption of a random stranger abduction. Therefore, LE does not have cause to alarm the public.

Citizens, in this case parents, are foolish if they expect LE to provide all of the answers for them. If I were a parent of a Skyline student, I'd be evaluating the information for myself. Since the perp has not been caught a random abduction cannot be ruled out by a 100% margin. That doesn't warrant removing my child from school, however. But just in case, though I'm already a cautious parent, I'm going to be a little more vigilant until the mystery is resolved.

 

[bessie]

Serial, serial type, serial event - they all have the same basic meaning to me - with a pattern. If there's a pattern, it has to have happened previously in order to see signs of that pattern.

Of course, those signs can be very subtle, and not be recognized until the crimes have been repeated more time than, say, twice.

Some things LE have said in this case, Staton specifically, don't make sense to me at all. Gates said he can't say it's not stranger to stranger. Staton says there are no signs it's serial/serial type/serial event. Then they say there is little for parents to be concerned about. I don't know. The statistics do support that there is little chance of a serial offender attacking your child in general.

I just don't know, Donjeta. To me, the loss of just one child is too much, the rape of just one child is too much. It is too great a loss, too great harm.

I knew the stats, yet, especially because my son was particularly vulnerable for reasons I won't go into, I worried terribly about him when he was young. Perhaps I went overboard about him - perhaps I go overboard about children in general. I just can't look at the stats and feel better. I just can't look at this case and feel better. If it's Terri, I wish to God LE would just say so, name her a POI at least, and then I would feel better, then I would worry less about the children in that community.

It always comes back to that one thing for me though - the loss of, or harm to, even just one child, is just too great. It's that horrible to me. It just is. If I haven't changed how I feel by my age, I'm just not going to change. And if that's silly, I'll just have to be silly. That's fine with me.

Here's one scenario where both of those statements are true. The abductor was a stranger to Kyron or someone he had seen only once or twice before, and he was singled out for a very specific reason that points back to one of the parents.

A stranger abduction, but not random. No increased threat to other children.

 

[liz b.]

I don't see anything silly in that, BeanE.

I looked at the familywatchdog map of Portland offenders and it was rather sad. I suppose you could make the statistical argument that there are always so many dangerous people around us and our children that having one more or less doesn't make that much of a difference, statistically. If you have 148 offenders within one map square the statistical likelihood of being victimized by one of them is almost the same as if there are 148 plus the one who took Kyron.

But in this matter I think the statistics don't really get it. No matter how small the risk is, some children always get victimized and one is too many. What a huge difference that one extra offender makes in their lives .

" If you have 148 offenders within one map square the statistical likelihood of being victimized by one of them is almost the same as if there are 148 plus the one who took Kyron ."

Respectfully, statistics are not just about numbers. For example, in order to truly find out probablilities and the 148 plus one RSO, we would have to know,in this case, what level are the 148 offenders ? And what level is the one extra offender ? We could then begin to form a probablility graph. We could add in the different distances they all were located from,say, Skyline Elementary school. Then add their respective forms of employment ; were any of them invloved in,say, deliveries to Skyline Elementary ? Add in their present ages.Add in, say, any involvement they had in alcohol use/drug use around the time of 6/4. Add in any domestic abuse they were involved in around that time. The graph becomes tighter the longer we add in in factors, hopefully the number of probable offenders in the area is narrowed to one or perhaps two.... Hope this makes sense...

All JMO

 

[wondering1]

" If you have 148 offenders within one map square the statistical likelihood of being victimized by one of them is almost the same as if there are 148 plus the one who took Kyron ."

Respectfully, statistics are not just about numbers. For example, in order to truly find out probablilities and the 148 plus one RSO, we would have to know,in this case, what level are the 148 offenders ? And what level is the one extra offender ? We could then begin to form a probablility graph. We could add in the different distances they all were located from,say, Skyline Elementary school. Then add their respective forms of employment ; were any of them invloved in,say, deliveries to Skyline Elementary ? Add in their present ages.Add in, say, any involvement they had in alcohol use/drug use around the time of 6/4. Add in any domestic abuse they were involved in around that time. The graph becomes tighter the longer we add in in factors, hopefully the number of probable offenders in the area is narrowed to one or perhaps two.... Hope this makes sense...

All JMO

ewww just typing this..but I imagine that the gender *preference* of an offender probably narrows the pool significantly, as well. jmoo

 

[liz b.]

ewww just typing this..but I imagine that the gender *preference* of an offender probably narrows the pool significantly, as well. jmoo

True, that... IF he truly has such a "preference " Many other factors too. Although, it is more likely,IMO, that IF Kyron was taken by a pedophile, it was someone with no prior LE involvement...

All JMO