Hi,
I didn't look too deep in the details yet, but I tend to agree with "most profilers" in this case. Plus I would liketo add somethings:
1.) He is not only organized, he is also experienced. He did not only plan it, he also had the experience to avoid the usual mistakes when a first timer does planing.
2.) He has probably killed before and he will again.Yes,dismembering a body is a nasty business and it takes some hardened mind to do it. Such an MO doesn't develop over night. So my guess is, he has thought about it a long time more than once executed it. That tells me, he is rather 30-40 years old. He has probably priors for molesting little girls and maybe served time forrapeof a girl in thepre-nubileage bracket.
3.) He has internet access, which supports the theory, he has his own place. He is not a homeless predator of opportunity. He knew, from the perv list in the internet, a known sex offender lived where he dropped the backpack. The interesting point is, there was more than one sex offender, he could have chosen from for his distraction maneuver. So, even it's a longshot, it would be worth to look in the prison history of his scapegoat and look who he had trouble with in prison.
4.) For most sexual motivated child killers, coveting starts with seeing. However, most of them, especially those who served already time and therefore learned about forensic counter measures, don't kill where they live. And they don't abduct form there. Especially not the organized ones. So my guess is, he worked in that area. There are three categories of jobs, this kind of offender likes: Trucker, handyman and everything, that brings him in contact with children. Since he is most likely somewhere(can be in another state though) on a sex offender list, he will not apply for teacher positions, even he is maybe qualified. Given the area, my guess is handyman. Roofer, window repairs, something that gives him during work vantage points. And he worked there while Jessica was there, he could see her.
5.) He is male (obviously), most likely Caucasian (I give that70% chance over the thumb), 30-40 years old. He has his own place and it is not just an apartment in a crowded building. He needs privacy, so most likely a small residence somewhere. The place will be approximately opposite direction from the abduction site to the direction and about the same distance but atleast two to three miles from the abduction site,the backpack was found, because either he picked that other predator as scapegoat because he didn't like him or it was a directional thing. He is physically fit and had the self esteem to risk, he may have to subdue her, if she would get suspicious about him. But more likely, he knew her and she knew him. That doesn't mean relative or neighbor, but for kids, someone they see all the time, doesn't count as stranger.
6.) The timing was impeccable. That tells me, he watched her for some time and knew her routines. He could get that part only by stalking which means, he missed work time. So in his work records, LE will find "flu" like days of being not at work.
7.) He lives alone. That doesn't mean, he was never married or never had a girl friend, but currently, he lives alone or he wouldn't had the privacy. Gacy for example went hunting, when his wife was visiting relatives.
8.) He works for a company and uses therefore often a company truck or van, depending on his job. But private, he drives probably an older unobtrusive car, probably a sedan. He has enough self-esteem not to go for something flashy. So witnesses may have watched in the area a midsize or small sedan, Chevy, Toyota, maybe Honda, which has circled a little till he found the right parking spot. He had to, because he came already with a plan and for that, he needed the car at hand to be able to leave quickly with the girl. If I get his mindset right, he may have even filled up the gas tank in the area in the last hour before the abduction.
9.) He is probably a psychopath, the question is, what variant of the same old subject. I don't think, he is primarily a narcissist. No bragging, no taunting, just effective. Maybe, rather in the power-assertion range, even he left the time of total lack of self-esteem long behind. He is definitively a pedophile, but I can't say, whether he is preferential. Statistics says, the chances he is are about 60-70%. That would mean, there are more bodies. Since he is maybe not from the state and probably moved after he was released from earlier prison time, those bodies can be anywhere, we look for missing girls of approximately the same age and appearance. Given his estimated age, about five to eight years back. Before that or overlapping would be also a string of rapes with the same kind of victimology.Additionally, he may have a history of petty crimes, mostly thefts (that comes with the package as psychopath).
So those are my first thoughts. Feel free to use them, I won't post them, I am busy with some other cases anyway.
Peter
