IA IA - Elizabeth Collins, 8, & Lyric Cook, 10, Evansdale, 13 July 2012 - #5

[Ms Pragmatic]

It just stated that the tracking dogs ran around the lake and stopped at the water's edge. But that LE wouldn't confirm it. It was just reportedly what happened.

I guess it's possible that the girls were abducted after the cyclist saw the bikes on the trail, but then...who moved the bikes? Wouldn't the cyclist have seen/heard the girls in the area?

Honestly, I can't see the perp moving the bikes. Why? Why would a perp want to touch the bikes? Would he risk being seen doing so?

 

[craftybatchy]

Could the dogs have hit on an older scent trail belonging to the girls ? Not much older, even a day or two perhaps ?

 

[Thinkzerz]

The couple in the video said they know Elizabeth as they see her all the time and a very friendly girl who talked to everyone. Wonder if Elizabeth rode her bike there before and alone. Sounds like she rode around the town a lot. Wonder how the kids knew of this trail? Did someone older take one or both of them there before? The timeline makes this seem like a planned abduction. JMO

 

[Unscripted]

It just stated that the tracking dogs ran around the lake and stopped at the water's edge. But that LE wouldn't confirm it. It was just reportedly what happened.

I guess it's possible that the girls were abducted after the cyclist saw the bikes on the trail, but then...who moved the bikes? Wouldn't the cyclist have seen/heard the girls in the area?

Honestly, I can't see the perp moving the bikes. Why? Why would a perp want to touch the bikes? Would he risk being seen doing so?

It’s quite possible that at 12:20pm the girls had just dropped their bikes (you know what kids are like with their bicycles) and were maybe down by the edge of the lake skipping stones (or looking for wildflowers) when the cyclist rode by. Given that possibility, the window of time for the abduction could be anywhere between 12:15pm and 2:00pm—ish. It’s even possible that the lurking perp. waited until the cyclist rode by before he made his move and if he heard (or saw) the cyclist squeal his tires to avoid the bikes then maybe he did pick them up and place them against the fence so as to not draw more attention to them.

I don’t see in any reports where the cyclist said whether the dropped bikes were pointed eastwardly or heading west, does anyone recall…?

 

[Ms Pragmatic]

LE/FBI know the statistics at this point. Most children are abducted by family/family acquaintance. This would be why LE is leaning so heavily on the family and looking into their acquaintances. So, an abduction by a complete stranger(s) would be rare, but certainly not unheard of. The abduction of two or more children at once is rarer still. Does it happen? Yes. But not generally.

If this were a complete stranger, knowledge of the area seems highly likely. And, unfortunately, if this is a complete stranger, The girls were most likely killed within hours.

My sincerest hope is that maybe this was someone known to them, I think there is more of a chance that they would be alive, because I sincerely doubt a complete stranger would bother keeping them alive for all this time. It does happen, but those cases would seem to be the rarest of all.

 

[Boodles]

:fence:

I question why they're still searching cars.

If the perp was going to move the girls or their remains, why do it now, as opposed to having done it immediately after the abduction or waiting until the heat dies down?

Draining the lake was grasping at straws but I could see the logic in absolutely ruling it out. This seems to be an even bigger waste of time.

The car search was done specifically related to the Friday traffic pattern, since this is when the girls disappeared. They were stopping cars to see if perhaps regular travelers along those routes had seen or witnessed anything related to the disappearance.

 

[Wishbone]

Ok, so If TB is to be believed(no reason she shouldn't be), girls left to bike ride at 11:30. Surveillance footage puts them near grandma's at 12:15 because she is next to the Big n Tall store? Did they stay close to home for 45 minutes and THEN decide to head to the lake? If so, did something draw them to the lake?

What time were the girls to be back at grandma's? Does anyone remember? I know she had told them to be back by a certain time. I'm trying to find an article.

I can't shake the feeling that there was some level of familiarity here between the perp(s) and the girls. The window of opportunity was IMO, so tight that everything would have had to be flawless. That perp(s) would have had to rely on several things working in his favor. It's daylight. Two victims. No other people close enough to see/hear what was going on if the girls screamed.

Yes, I know kids are abducted in broad daylight. but within minutes of them leaving the parking lot, two girls rode approximately 1.5(I think), dropped their bikes, went to the warer's edge, and managed to disappear...all before the cyclist came on to the scene? I think that window is just too tight IMO. Somehow, I feel like those girls went willingly. I don't see any way they went with no fuss...a fuss loud enough to be heard by the cyclist in the area.

Not positive, but I thought Gma said the girls knew that she had to leave the house around 1:30

 

[palaminodee]

Could the dogs have hit on an older scent trail belonging to the girls ? Not much older, even a day or two perhaps ?

Doubtful, the dogs are trained to pick up the strongest/latest scent of the individual they are tracking

 

[Ms Pragmatic]

That sounds about right, Wishbone. I had in my mind 1 or 1:30. Which is why I thought it odd that the girls seemingly stayed close to home for 45 minutes and then took off for the lake, knowing they would have to be back in an hour or so. If they knew what time Gma was wanting them back, I do t know why they wouldn't have instantly headed to the lake nearer 11:30, when they originally left. Or maybe they had been to the lake already and come back? Only to ride to the lake again? Idk.

 

[JodiR]

Just re-posting for anyone who hasn’t seen this:

In this interview and article Mr. C who lives on Lake Ave. (near Gilbert Drive) reports seeing Elizabeth and Lyric bicycle by his house between 12-3pm the day they disappeared.

http://www.desmoinesregister.com/article/20120717/NEWS/120717002/?odyssey=nav|head

I drove by Mr. C's house and he is a good 2 blocks away. The girls most likey took Evans road and then turned right to go to the parking lot of Meyers Lake. Took the trail around the lake. Aunt T said that a person at the lake saw them ride around the trail at 2:30. JMO


What do you think Olli?

 

[palaminodee]

It’s quite possible that at 12:20pm the girls had just dropped their bikes (you know what kids are like with their bicycles) and were maybe down by the edge of the lake skipping stones (or looking for wildflowers) when the cyclist rode by. Given that possibility, the window of time for the abduction could be anywhere between 12:15pm and 2:00pm—ish. It’s even possible that the lurking perp. waited until the cyclist rode by before he made his move and if he heard (or saw) the cyclist squeal his tires to avoid the bikes then maybe he did pick them up and place them against the fence so as to not draw more attention to them.

I don’t see in any reports where the cyclist said whether the dropped bikes were pointed eastwardly or heading west, does anyone recall…?

Very good point, locals...Ollipop is is it possible the cyclist just missed seeing the girls by the water while bikes were dropped on the path?

 

[jenniferst]

O/T a little, but goes with your I read some magazine (parenting or something along those lines) which stated in an article that when your child is little and they don't want to hug/kiss/talk to a family member....don't make them. They are just following their intuition and that's a good thing. Makes you go hmmmm. Not that the people they are avoiding are bad, but might sense a bad mood, uneasiness, etc. I found it interesting.

I have read this as well- I don't make my kids converse with people we don't know well. If they get a bad feeling, I want them to be able to follow their instincts! I have found my kids to be pretty good at reading people so far, and I am not going to step in and force them. I expect them to be nice and polite to people we know of course.

 

[Ms Pragmatic]

I really think that the cyclist HAD to miss seeing them. I don't like that tiny window. It's bothering me.

 

[Ms Pragmatic]

To fit into that time frame, we would really have to assume the girls, once they decided to take off for the lake, headed straight there. No stopping to tie a shoe or to rest, or for traffic or a stop light or anything. A mile and a half is no great distance, considering a child's energy, but keep in mind that they had already been out riding for 45 minutes prior to that. No rest? No stop to drink water from a water bottle?

 

[BlueIris]

Very good point, locals...Ollipop is is it possible the cyclist just missed seeing the girls by the water while bikes were dropped on the path?

I'm wondering if the kids even made it to the place where the bikes were found? Perhaps they were still cooperative with an abductor while he dropped the bikes (not realizing they were in danger?). Perhaps they were drugged the minute they were taken and therefore out cold. Not sure.

I'd like to know why aunt tammy has shut up all of a sudden? I suspect police told her to zip it tight at the meeting the other night at the school for whatever reason. If they hadn't, surely she'd be screaming all over the media about whatever was said to the family at that time. Why go quiet now?

 

[Mjskit]

One thing is certain: when that police tape comes down (when I arrived at work 12 hours ago I heard it would be), you will all see pics of that trail section, and those woods, if not by press, then by me. I will also be double-checking those tire tracks. I hope I'm not overstepping my bounds here, or being over-zealous about seeing some evidence that I think may have been overlooked. But I can see that damn lake out my window. My kids sleep a 3-wood shot away. My 4-yr old son has asked me 7 days in a row now if I've found Elizabeth. I know I can't return to "business as usual" until these thoughts/questions are put to rest. If LE tells me that they had a vehicle in there, I will let it go. But the girl on the other end of the tipline did not indicate that they had.

When you take more pics of the tire tracks could you measure the distance from one to the other- inside and outside the tracks. It would help narrow down what vehicle was there and the width of tire on the vehicle. Look closely for a tread pattern. I know it was a grassy area but the vehicle had to get there somehow. Try following the way you think it could have gotten there without witnesses and look for the tread pattern. TIA.

 

[Mjskit]

And actually the time for them to vanish is less than five minutes because they are not where the bikes were found at the 12:15 mark. But we can (maybe) add a couple of minutes if the cyclist got to the store faster than he estimated. Still only leaves five minutes.

To get them in a vehicle and leave the area? Or in a vehicle hidden off the trail? Or hiding in the wooded area, then into a vehicle and leaving after the cyclist passed?

What a mystery. So sad that it is real and two little girls are gone.

The times must be wrong, They were seen downtown at 12:15 and it was posted earlier that it takes 7-8 minutes to travel to the lake by bike. Yet the bikes were seen on the path at 12:20. Not possible.

 

[hollyblue]

It’s quite possible that at 12:20pm the girls had just dropped their bikes (you know what kids are like with their bicycles) and were maybe down by the edge of the lake skipping stones (or looking for wildflowers) when the cyclist rode by. Given that possibility, the window of time for the abduction could be anywhere between 12:15pm and 2:00pm—ish. It’s even possible that the lurking perp. waited until the cyclist rode by before he made his move and if he heard (or saw) the cyclist squeal his tires to avoid the bikes then maybe he did pick them up and place them against the fence so as to not draw more attention to them.

I don’t see in any reports where the cyclist said whether the dropped bikes were pointed eastwardly or heading west, does anyone recall…?

I don't have a link, but IIRC, there was an article or video saying the bikes were headed west.

I'm a little surprised no one or the biker didn't stop to check things out. I would, especially if I knew the trail and where the gate was. It would be strange in such a desolute area of the trail, two children's bikes and them not around.....and a gate to the lakeside. Not to mention the high fences to confine the area even more, kwim? It not like it was open trail and kids threw the bikes down to explore an open area.

 

[ShyViolet]

Thanks for the timeline, OP.

One thing I cannot wrap my head around or find an explanation for, though I have been trying, is why the police were called right after a witness said he saw the girls? If I was out looking for my 8 and 10 yr old kids, and someone said they just saw them riding thataway, pretty sure I would feel a sense of relief that they had been seen and I knew where to look.

I suspect if I called my local pd and said my kids were late returning home but had just been seen riding their bikes at a family park with an awesome playground, I would be lucky if they sent one or two officers within the hour. There would be no swarming within 15 minutes.

I keep wondering if there was a reason for family and police to assume the girls were in some kind of danger? Maybe I just misunderstood the timeline or missed something, so I hope someone can clarify.
Apologies as I tried asking this before, though perhaps not as clearly ( hope it is clear now) but I think my post may have been lost in the shuffle during a flurry of posting activity.

 

[palaminodee]

I'm wondering if the kids even made it to the place where the bikes were found? Perhaps they were still cooperative with an abductor while he dropped the bikes (not realizing they were in danger?). Perhaps they were drugged the minute they were taken and therefore out cold. Not sure.

I'd like to know why aunt tammy has shut up all of a sudden? I suspect police told her to zip it tight at the meeting the other night at the school for whatever reason. If they hadn't, surely she'd be screaming all over the media about whatever was said to the family at that time. Why go quiet now?

The girls had to be at the lake that day because the dogs picked up their scent.

Not sure why Aunt Tammy is not talking, yet Misty spoke with KWWL yesterday and she supposedly was advised by a lawyer not to speak to the media?