Malaysia airlines plane may have crashed 239 people on board #16

[revampz]

Yeah, but those two in conjunction only make for the first turn/change of course (in the fatal flaw theory where the fuselage breaks apart and there is depressurization). In that scenario, the plane had trouble, the pilots realized it, and headed back to land asap to land the plane.



The way I see it that theory has some problems (using the map for reference):

1) At the first sign of trouble (at some point prior to course change at 1:07) why didn't they land at the first available airport? That's the rule of thumb for pilots. There are two on the east coast just north of where they traversed the coast on their way out.

2) Why no mayday and request for permission to land at that course change at 1:07 if there is still radio contact and the copilot is alert enough to say "all right, good night" at 1:19?

3) Instead they fly completely across the country for almost an hour after the initial event (pre 1:07); there is also a turn in course 2/3 of the way across land--would they have also reprogrammed their autopilot to do that in the 20 minutes or so of oxygen that they had with their emergency crew masks? "Autopilot is autopilot" says Mitchell Casado on Anderson Cooper..."it's going to stay where it is until you change it." So if they put it on autopilot under hypoxic stress before 1:07, then passed out, one would expect a straight line flight from the point of directional change (1:07) until the plane ran out of fuel.

4) Leaving Malaysia's west coast, *flying at 24,500 feet altitude,* they head back out to sea, making multiple diagonal turns between waypoints that the earlier experts said showed the pilot was an experienced aviator. JMO, but that doesn't seem the moves of someone low on oxygen or someone looking for a place to land. Or in fact a dead pilot, which he would certainly be if a fuselage breakup caused a hypoxic event before 1:07. No way could a pilot could still be expertly flying a depressurized plane at 24,500 feet, navigating waypoints. His emergency oxygen would have been gone an hour or so earlier.

Thanks for this post.....It says perfectly what I have in my mind but could not explain in writing....

 

[MsFacetious]

:banghead:

Jason Ng ‏@ByJasonNg 4m

Breaking: Australia says search for Flight #MH370 suspended because of bad weather


Jason Ng ‏@ByJasonNg 1m

Australia says all planes, ships leaving #MH370 search area due to bad weather http://on.wsj.com/MVzjtD

https://twitter.com/ByJasonNg

 

[SeriouslySearching]

Yeah, but those two in conjunction only make for the first turn/change of course (in the fatal flaw theory where the fuselage breaks apart and there is depressurization). In that scenario, the plane had trouble, the pilots realized it, and headed back to land asap to land the plane.



The way I see it that theory has some problems (using the map for reference):

1) At the first sign of trouble (at some point prior to course change at 1:07) why didn't they land at the first available airport? That's the rule of thumb for pilots. There are two on the east coast just north of where they traversed the coast on their way out.

2) Why no mayday and request for permission to land at that course change at 1:07 if there is still radio contact and the copilot is alert enough to say "all right, good night" at 1:19?

3) Instead they fly completely across the country for almost an hour after the initial event (pre 1:07); there is also a turn in course 2/3 of the way across land--would they have also reprogrammed their autopilot to do that in the 20 minutes or so of oxygen that they had with their emergency crew masks? "Autopilot is autopilot" says Mitchell Casado on Anderson Cooper..."it's going to stay where it is until you change it." So if they put it on autopilot under hypoxic stress before 1:07, then passed out, one would expect a straight line flight from the point of directional change (1:07) until the plane ran out of fuel.

4) Leaving Malaysia's west coast, *flying at 24,500 feet altitude,* they head back out to sea, making multiple diagonal turns between waypoints that the earlier experts said showed the pilot was an experienced aviator. JMO, but that doesn't seem the moves of someone low on oxygen or someone looking for a place to land. Or in fact a dead pilot, which he would certainly be if a fuselage breakup caused a hypoxic event before 1:07. No way could a pilot could still be expertly flying a depressurized plane at 24,500 feet, navigating waypoints. His emergency oxygen would have been gone an hour or so earlier.

I think the turn was already in the program and the reason it was so abrupt at that point. I also believe it is possible the rest was programmed meaning the pilot/pilots only had enough oxygen to sluggishly hit auto-pilot while messing up the other controls. No one flew the airplane after the event. The only reason it turned out into the ocean was because it was in the program set up by the pilot in case of such an event.

I don't see there being any time to consider landing an option. It was sudden death for passengers and fast approaching imminent death to the pilots even if they had reached their masks.

This has some good info and keep in mind the pilot of Payne Stewart's plane did not have nearly the expertise of Shah. He could have prepared his plane for such an event way beyond that of a less experienced pilot and why I feel it is plausible for the scenario I have presented above.

Research has shown that a period of as little as 8 seconds without supplemental oxygen following rapid depressurization to about 30,000 feet (9,100 m) may cause a drop in oxygen saturation that can significantly impair cognitive functioning and increase the amount of time required to complete complex tasks.

[ame="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1999_South_Dakota_Learjet_crash"]1999 South Dakota Learjet crash - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia[/ame]

BBM

 

[Soulmagent]

:banghead:

Jason Ng ‏@ByJasonNg 4m

Breaking: Australia says search for Flight #MH370 suspended because of bad weather


Jason Ng ‏@ByJasonNg 1m

Australia says all planes, ships leaving #MH370 search area due to bad weather http://on.wsj.com/MVzjtD

https://twitter.com/ByJasonNg

https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/details/ships/8877899/vessel:XUE_LONG

This poor vessel, if you look at the course historical date, shows a grim picture of their search.

 

[PoirotryInMotion]

A pilot with great experience could have programmed not just this airplane, but other planes he flew with a secondary flight plan when enacted would have taken the plane to the waypoints then out to the ocean. The waypoints could have bought time in case the pilot was able to recover from an event and get the plane back under his control before it was too late. If not, it would continue on the path to insure the least harm to the public in general.

This could have been a contingency plan for not only a hypoxia event, but a hijacking. Maybe the hijackers wouldn't know how to reset it after he enacted it.

Good post, SS. Thanks for the info about programming waypoints to buy time in case of emergency. In that scenario a dead pilot could continue to fly by navigational waypoints.

But would the plane hold up? And was the sudden rise to 45,000 feet part of the programming? (And subsequent drops to 23,000 or lower?) I can see preprogramming a flight path, in other words...but also those weird altitude changes? (The preprogrammed change was set in place before 1:07, before the altitude climb after 1:30 or so).

 

[Mrs G Norris]

MH370 pilot’s son breaks silence as search for missing Malaysia Airlines flight is suspended

http://www.news.com.au/travel/trave...ght-is-suspended/story-fnizu68q-1226865929215

 

[PoirotryInMotion]

I think the turn was already in the program and the reason it was so abrupt at that point. I also believe it is possible the rest was programmed meaning the pilot/pilots only had enough oxygen to sluggishly hit auto-pilot while messing up the other controls. No one flew the airplane after the event. The only reason it turned out into the ocean was because it was in the program set up by the pilot in case of such an event.

I don't see there being any time to consider landing an option. It was sudden death for passengers and fast approaching imminent death to the pilots even if they had reached their masks.

This has some good info and keep in mind the pilot of Payne Stewart's plane did not have nearly the expertise of Shah. He could have prepared his plane for such an event way beyond that of a less experienced pilot and why I feel it is plausible for the scenario I have presented above.

Research has shown that a period of as little as 8 seconds without supplemental oxygen following rapid depressurization to about 30,000 feet (9,100 m) may cause a drop in oxygen saturation that can significantly impair cognitive functioning and increase the amount of time required to complete complex tasks.

1999 South Dakota Learjet crash - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

BBM

ETA: Ugh, it's late and I'm not making sense to myself, even. Wrote a paragraph and deleted it; maybe tomorrow when I'm awake... but here's one thought. If autopilot was engaged by 1:07, what would be the point of going UP to higher elevation for 23 minutes later on, if depressurization and lack of oxygen were the issue he was responding to?

(In my theory, I have that as purposeful on the part of hijackers to do away with their unwanted passengers. )

BTW, does HulaMom (or someone else) know how much oxygen is in those pilot supplies?

ETA: Just checked and realized I read that Payne Steward story yesterday--so tragic.

 

[SeriouslySearching]

Good post, SS. Thanks for the info about programming waypoints to buy time in case of emergency. In that scenario a dead pilot could continue to fly by navigational waypoints.

But would the plane hold up? And was the sudden rise to 45,000 feet part of the programming? (And subsequent drops to 23,000 or lower?) I can see preprogramming a flight path, in other words...but also those weird altitude changes? (The preprogrammed change was set in place before 1:07, before the altitude climb after 1:30 or so).

They have not proven to me there was ever a sudden climb to 45,000 feet. However, the sudden jolt of a plane on the straight trajectory being forced to make a hard left turn could possibly cause a brief "burp" if you will. A change in altitude could have to do with what was programmed for the rest of the flight.

 

[costalpilot]

RMAF assumed MH370 turn back was normal
Leven Woon | March 26, 2014
We thought the aircraft was non-hostile, we assumed it was a directive of the control tower that had directed the plane to turn back, says deputy defence minister.

In revealing this today, Deputy Defence Minister Abdul Rahim Bakri said the air force decided to ignore the radar signal because the aircraft was categorised as non-hostile in nature.
“We thought the aircraft was non-hostile, we assumed it was a directive of the control tower that had directed the plane to turn back,” he told the Dewan Rakyat today.


http://www.freemalaysiatoday.com/ca...air-force-assumed-mh370-turn-back-was-normal/

The next time wolf blitzer or anyone else says the plane evaded radar and that this proves a skilled pilot was controlling it, remember THIS admission by the Malaysians. It took them a week , I believe, to admit itafter the plane went missing, but in fact they tracked it on radar as it turned west and transited their airspace. They just neglected to respond, in a colossal misjudment. Then they failed to own up to their failure as the North China sea was being needlessly searched for several days,.

Wolf Blitzer is STILL insisting a skilled pilot evaded radar detection, but its all baloney.

 

[MLO]

OFTEN catastrophic. There are enough miracles for me to say it's not always catastrophic. :twocents:
I sure wish that MH370 could have been another TACA 110 or Hudson River Miracle. lease:

Have you read about the Qantas flight 32? It amazes me that the pilot got it to the ground, let alone with no injuries. There is an Air Crash Investigation episode about it called Titanic in the Sky (or something like that).

 

[SeriouslySearching]

Yes, but the pilots had emergency masks that would give them enough oxygen to get the plane down low enough to stabilize a rapid depressurization...even if they didn't land the plane immediately. They wouldn't have necessarily died within the first 8 seconds of the event b/c they'd have their emergency supply--I believe I've read that passengers have at least 15 minutes worth in their cannisters, and pilots more than that. The supply is determined to be adequate to get the plane down to a low enough altitude that oxygen and depressurization can be stabilized. From what I've read it's the slow depressurization that is considered dangerous, as the event can go unnoticed and masks used too late, then.

BTW, does HulaMom (or someone else) know how much oxygen is in those pilot supplies?

Hypoxia is an insidious and progressive condition and is almost undetectable by the pilot. You should always be aware that without supplemental oxygen at sufficient pressure you will gradually and progressively lapse into incompetence while maintaining an absolutely euphoric faith in your own ability.

http://www.avweb.com/news/aeromed/181893-1.html?redirected=1

This is the very best site I have found to explain Hypoxia. It gets into the nitty gritty of it all. Important details.

 

[MsFacetious]

Have you read about the Qantas flight 32? It amazes me that the pilot got it to the ground, let alone with no injuries. There is an Air Crash Investigation episode about it called Titanic in the Sky (or something like that).

Here you go:

[ame="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=usK2kcj7BHg"]Air Crash Investigation S13E10 - Qantas 32: Titanic In The Sky - YouTube[/ame]

 

[HulaMum]

ETA: Ugh, it's late and I'm not making sense to myself, even. Wrote a paragraph and deleted it; maybe tomorrow when I'm awake... but here's one thought. If autopilot was engaged by 1:07, what would be the point of going UP to higher elevation for 23 minutes later on, if depressurization and lack of oxygen were the issue he was responding to?

(In my theory, I have that as purposeful on the part of hijackers to do away with their unwanted passengers. )

BTW, does HulaMom (or someone else) know how much oxygen is in those pilot supplies?

ETA: Just checked and realized I read that Payne Steward story yesterday--so tragic.

Pilots' oxygen system - finite supply in a tank. How long it lasts for depends on mask settings, altitude, etc.

Passengers have a separate system - oxygen generators (they also generate heat as a byproduct and make the cabin very hot as they produce oxygen). Approx. 10 min. supply.

ETA: also on board is supplemental oxygen for medical purposes.

 

[Ravynne]

New article posted sort time ago...

http://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/latest/a/22192009/human-input-essential-for-direction-changes/

 

[fruity]

Have you read about the Qantas flight 32? It amazes me that the pilot got it to the ground, let alone with no injuries. There is an Air Crash Investigation episode about it called Titanic in the Sky (or something like that).

I know the pilot and his family - it is amazing to think about his actions.

Did you know that there was another incident (engine failure) during his flight home to Australia after rescuing flight 32? He was a passenger at that time, not the pilot.

 

[nursebeeme]

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/mh370-human-input-essential-flight-042800587.html

Good article here

 

[Soulmagent]

3/10/14
Boeing Stock Falling As Malaysia Airlines Mystery Continues

http://www.forbes.com/sites/maggiemcgrath/2014/03/10/boeing-stock-falling-as-malaysia-airlines-mystery-continues/

It was up yesterday .

 

[SeriouslySearching]

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/mh370-human-input-essential-flight-042800587.html

Good article here

LOL Now they have me confused again. Much of what they are basing things on is the Malaysian government's military. I thought I had studied the issue, but maybe I need to be schooled more. smh

 

[PoirotryInMotion]

In looking for where I’d found the map that showed the plane going up to 45,000’ I found the article...but also this section which I hadn’t noticed before. Has anyone else read that the latest info is that the plane was NOT reprogrammed, but actually still on its course to Beijing??

Here’s the section of article published 2 days ago (Mar 25) in news.com.au referring to this latest development which investigators feel is a “game-changer”:

FOUL PLAY IN THE COCKPIT

Suspicion has largely fallen on the pilots because evidence indicates the plane’s communication systems were manually switched off and the airliner was deliberately diverted.

“These movements are consistent with deliberate action by someone on the plane,” Malaysian prime minister Najib Razak said.

However, authorities recently revealed that the last transmission from the aircraft’s reporting system showed it was heading to Beijing — apparently undercutting the theory that someone reprogrammed the plane’s flight path before the co-pilot signed off with air traffic controllers for the last time.

CNN aviation analyst Miles O’Brien said this evidence was a “game changer.”

“Now we have no evidence the crew did anything wrong,” he said. “And in fact, now, we should be operating with the primary assumption being that something bad happened to that plane shortly after they said good night.”

A passenger may have gained access to the cockpit and hijacked the plane for a political, psychological or financial reason. If the passenger was armed, they might have threatened the pilot and forced them to fly off course.

Otherwise, if the passenger was a trained pilot, they could have taken over the controls.

While all this is plausible, intelligence agencies around the world have conducted two rounds of checks on the passengers and found nothing suspicious about any. ...

http://www.news.com.au/travel/trave...-answers-goes-on/story-fnizu68q-1226864212548

Good article; goes into all the basic theories (including malfunction, hypoxia, fire, hijack) and the remaining questions concerning those. And this article is the source of my favorite 3-D graphic (cropped) showing the plane’s altitude at various times during the flight:

 

[MLO]

I know the pilot and his family - it is amazing to think about his actions.

Did you know that there was another incident (engine failure) during his flight home to Australia after rescuing flight 32? He was a passenger at that time, not the pilot.

No way! You'd stop off and buy a lotto ticket on the way home I reckon. They did an amazing job, working through all the problems one by one and getting it down safely. He used to be a RAAF pilot didn't he? You'd have to have nerves of steel to be a RAAF pilot so it's no surprise he kept calm and figured it all out.