PA PA - Ray Gricar, 59, Bellefonte, 15 April 2005 - #11

[SuperSmith]

192 is Buffalo Rd and the Quarry is on Dale Quarry Road. I am not sure how anyone could see a vehicle driving in from Dale Quarry unless they were sitting at the intersection. And you cannot drive through the quarry regardless of what google maps is showing. Campbell Mill and Strawbridge form a T. Strawbridge becomes a dirt path for about 50 yards or so past the T and peters out to scrub.

Trying to search the quarry would be a daunting task, even with ground penetration radar.

I doubt anyone would put a body in the wooded section behind the quarry as the quarry and it's equipment could but a body at least 12" underground at any spot, pack the dirt back down and put a stone pile on top of it. Putting a body in the woods leaves too much chance for discovery by hunters and kids.

You are right that there is one way in and one way out. They have a road going straight through the ponds and woods. LOL

 

[SeekingJana]

How big a risk would it likely ( ordinarily) be to move the Mini from the quarry back to the SOS parking lot, then be picked up by a second driver in another car? ( I obviously do not know the area in question, and if this did happen, the perps obviously succeeded).
I guess I am asking why it would not be more prudent to leave the car wherever Ray drove it and parked it, never touching it....
I am finding it difficult to imagine a scenario in which a murderer could get a D.A. to drive to the quarry in his own car or to willingly go with someone else either. First rules related to abduction for high risk adults- Do not drive to an isolated area to meet someone and do not get into a stranger's car even if a gun is held to your head.

How did a perp or perps know they weren't leaving DNA in or on the car? Hair, fibers, pet hair, you name it. Now, the technology is quite advanced with regard to touch DNA. It wasn't as common to test for it 8 years ago, but a prudent person would have thought that technology might catch up with them. Why risk moving the car?

Also, if he abandoned his laptop or otherwise left his belongings unattended, why wasn't his cell phone stolen? As far as we know, it's never been reported as used since April 15. Again, technology has progressed with tracking and locking of stolen phones since then, but we are looking to that specific time frame. I guess the same thing can be asked about why the car wasn't stolen but with PFo on the license and a fire engine red and white Mini, it wasn't exactly like stealing most other cars in the area. ( I am aware that there was another Mini like Ray's in the general area).

 

[SuperSmith]

Here is the map of the Quarry

https://maps.google.com/maps?hl=en&...002&ei=b6hFUpe7GKzC4AOF_4DwDQ&ved=0CCEQtgMwAg

The Quarry would be prime place to hide a body if foul play is the scenario IMO.

The Mini not so much but that doesn't explain the laptop.

The laptop would have been easily destroy and hidden in the Quarry sludge pits vs. the River. That is why I believe the laptop was thrown in the river after the searches and to confuse LE. There were 100's of better places to put the laptop and hard drive if the intent was to hide data.

 

[SuperSmith]

I also took a look at a photo taken at the Milton State police barracks as the Mini was sitting in the lot and it appears NOT to have much dirt or dust on it. You'd think there would be quick a bit from a drive through that quarry.

 

[J. J. in Phila]

I did hear from the person who spotted a Mini in the quarry area near Lewisburg. It was at 8:30 AM and there were two men, one a younger adult male, in the car.

The thing is, witnesses put RFG alive and well west of there that early.

There were two other red Mini Coopers in Lewisburg that day.

I think some of the problems with driving and leaving evidence are hard to overcome. For example, if there was a younger male, why didn't find a biological case.

 

[Missouri Mule]

I wish we could get a good look at the hard drive from Ray Gricar's laptop. The link referenced in an early post IMO does not show the hard drive so IMO it is unknown whether the hard drive was actually smashed or if when they refer to "damage" it strictly means water damage.

Here is a picture of the Laptop, CD-ROM, and Floppy Drive that was recovered with the Laptop. http://imgick.pennlive.com/home/pen...riot-news/photo/2012/04/-ebfc895ae1d41d23.jpg

That actual Hard Drive from the Micron Trek II is very small at 2.5 inches which is not pictured.

For those you interested in learning more about RG's laptop here is the Manual.

1. Removable hard disk drive
Your computer includes a removable 2.5-inch IDE hard disk
drive (12.7mm in height) with 1.44GB or more storage
capability. The TREK 2 PC’s BIOS automatically detects IDE
drive types. Consult your dealer for information on changing
your TREK 2’s HDD

http://www.eol.ucar.edu/homes/oncley/micron/trekman.pdf

The Dateline program shows what appears to be both the laptop and a hard drive. It's somewhere here and there are six parts. It is impossible to determine if this is the actual hard drive. The first photograph shows the laptop and what may appear to be the missing hard drive that was evidently fitted into the left side of the laptop. An older Toshiba laptop I have has the hard drive installed on the bottom side. Evidently the laptop shown fits it differently from the side. I believe most laptop hard drives are the small 2.5 inch size. I have replaced them myself. Not very difficult.

Penn State ,The Case of the Missing D A , Part 2 - YouTube

 

[J. J. in Phila]

I did hear from the person who spotted a Mini in the quarry area near Lewisburg. It was at 8:30 AM and there were two men, one a younger adult male, in the car.

The thing is, witnesses put RFG alive and well west of there that early.

There were two other red Mini Coopers in Lewisburg that day.

I think some of the problems with driving and leaving evidence are hard to overcome. For example, if there was a younger male, why didn't find a biological case.

That should be "biological trance."

ah, "trace." :floorlaugh:

 

[Missouri Mule]

"On July 30, two fishermen pulled the laptop from the Susquehanna, under a bridge directly behind the park where Gricar was last seen. The hard drive had been removed.

On September 23, a woman walking the low banks of the river came across a piece of electronic equipment one inch by three inches — a hard drive. This was near a railroad bridge a half mile upstream from where the Mini Cooper was parked. The hard drive is the same make and model as Gricar’s laptop, but Centre County did not keep tabs on the serial numbers, so Zaccagni can only assume it’s the one he’s looking for while he awaits confirmation from a lab in California. Says Zaccagni: “It looks like a duck, but we’re waiting to see if it quacks like a duck.” After the five months the equipment spent in the water, he’s not holding his breath.

Psychic Carla Baron, who has weighed in on cases for Court TV, called from L.A. to tell investigators she thought someone involved in government murdered Gricar. She said his body could be found near an old farmhouse, by a river or a lake."

I'll address the latter. Psychics are almost entirely going to say a body will be found near "water." You can count on it. A case I followed for 20 years had about 10 psychics claiming that three bodies would be found near "water." That came from the lead detective. I would put no credence in that whatsoever.

I suppose that at least the laptop has been definitively determined to be his actual laptop. Only the hard drive being the actual drive is in question from what I have read.

As I have said I have not spent a great deal of time with this case until recently so I may be repeating duplicative information already provided.

 

[SeekingJana]

That should be "biological trance."

:floorlaugh:
Helping you out this time: "biological trace". :seeya:

 

[J. J. in Phila]

:floorlaugh:
Helping you out this time: "biological trace". :seeya:

Thanks.

On health problems, LE checked out, and ruled out, the possibility of a psychotic episode, or that he had checked into a "mental health facility."
http://attorney-pr.blogspot.com/2012/05/psychic-leads-investigated.html Interestingly, I think there is a mental health facility outside of Centre Hall, so it could have been possible.

BG considered the possibility that he'd had a ministroke and was walking around confused.

All of those were checked out. The evidence against them is pretty much the same as the evidence against suicide. They do get considered.

 

[SeekingJana]

Thanks for addressing the mental health/ illness point. Bi-Polar disorder, which Ray's brother Roy had and which probably led to Roy's suicide during a depressive episode, has a VERY strong biological component. It is stronger than the genetics involved in depression, even depression which ends in suicide.
While Bi-Polar disorder is now usually effectively treated with specific medications, there are some new ( this century) psych. drugs which can induce psychosis. Some people react very badly to some of the meds. for BP disorder. Also, some people who are Bi-Polar are extremely resistant to medication because they like the ' highs' which naturally occur. It's a difficult balance, and I seem to remember Tony saying that Roy was not compliant with his meds in one of the news specials on Ray.

There are also people who live high stress lives and have to push their limits on occasion to relax. Not Bi-Polar disordered at all, just thrill-seeking behavior.
My point is, thank you for your post. I am glad the authorities shared something so sensitive, and unless lots of things were hidden from the public about their DA, I do not think Mr. Gricar had severe mental illness.

 

[J. J. in Phila]

Even suicidal tendencies are genetically linked. That was just recently discovered: http://www.hopkinsmedicine.org/news..._identifies_genetic_link_to_attempted_suicide

It had been long suspected however.

RFG has not known for running to doctors, so that could have complicated any matter.

I am aware that there were other mental disorders that were considered over the years, and ruled out.

I have toyed with the idea of amnesia over the years. RFG could have suffered a head injury, a rare robbery or an accident, and with a vague memory being in court, thought he was a recently released inmate from the Federal Prison in Lewisburg! The problems with that are the same for all the other health possibilities.

 

[SeekingJana]

Re: the above post ^^.
IF a person thought they were a parolee or somehow otherwise connected to a prison in town and had " foggy" thoughts, AND had the history that RFG obviously did down through the years working closely with LE, wouldn't it be more probable that he would go to the prison and ask for help or directions?
Even in " most" cases of transient amnesia, some core behaviors and belief systems stay intact. ( I can provide case studies to confirm that the term " amnesia" usually doesn't mean " tabula rasa" but it could take a while). Doesn't it just make sense that a person in their middle age would have a belief system which would still function at some basic level ( the superego, in psych. terms is the belief system in its purest form and is also the " gatekeeper" to the personality).
I think he would see the place as more of a place to get things straightened out in his mind rather than more confused, IOW.

OK, with the local prison dealt with, let's consider a person wandering around in a small town without a bus terminal or Amtrak, etc. with transient amnesia from a CVA, or another reason. Just because they can't remember who they are maybe, or why they are where they are temporarily doesn't mean they are invisible to others.
I think I can safely generalize the following statement as true: Most people in Lewisburg, and in his part of PA generally, are not kidnappers of grown men. He might have been robbed, but he apparently WASN'T. The Mini Cooper was recovered and returned to PF.

So, it seems to me that he would be found fairly quickly in the area and would have gotten the help he needed with a medical or psych. crisis. I have seen maybe 2 cases of transient global amnesia which could not be traced to a CVA, brain trauma, or a mind- altering substance.
On a positive note, I have seen over a 30 year span that the last thing people remember before they pass away ( they are in extreme physical distress, IOW) most times is their name and their spouse's or other loved one's name. And God, if they have spiritual beliefs. This takes me back to many extremely difficult bedsides and the tears are flowing. I hope so much that if Mr. Gricar has passed away, which seems likely, it was over before the thought registered in his brain.

 

[J. J. in Phila]

As I said, there are problems with the theory, and most of the accident or health theories.

1. Lewisburg is not exactly known for street crime. A mugging would be quite rare.

2. Assuming RFG was mugged or in an accident, had amnesia, and got a bus ticket, where did he get the money for the ticket? If he had his wallet, why not look at his address on his license? It would still be the question of how RFG got out of Lewisburg. Why isn't he there then LE shows up about 25-26 hours later?

3. Why doesn't he ask someone (not necessarily at the local prison). If he's thinks he's just been released, why doesn't go to a local church, or to the hospital? There is a fairly large hospital about a mile north of the Street of Shops.

4. Why don't we have a scent trail out of the parking lot? In theory the skin rafts could have been masked or destroyed, but it is not likely.

5. Why don't we have more witnesses that say him walking in different streets in Lewisburg, or along a road or who picked him up hitchhiking? There are at least 7 witnesses that reported that they saw RFG on foot in Lewisburg, and were not ruled out. All of them reported that they saw RFG in locations the were adjacent to a 2 1/2 block area along Water Street.

There is a bus depot in Lewisburg, and LE checked. A while back, someone found the then current schedule; all buses left prior to 5:00 PM. There could have been a later one in 2005, however.

 

[SeekingJana]

Were there CCTVs in the bus terminal? Was a driver's license required to purchase a ticket? How do we know he didn't leave Lewisburg of his own volition on the bus, with the Mini safely parked in plain sight to be found quickly?

 

[J. J. in Phila]

I don't think anyone found a contemporary bus schedule, but before Sandusky hit, a number of posters were looking at bus schedules. The last bus out of Lewisburg at that time, 2011, was sometime before the last sightings of RFG.

At Greyhound later, an advanced ticket required ID to pick up. I think the last time it was discussed, they might have taken cash without ID.

I don't know about the CCTV. LE did check the bus station.

 

[J. J. in Phila]

As I indicated, we had been discussing bus schedules in October-November 2011. Here is the current schedule: http://www.susquehannabus.com/schedules.asp I don't think it has changed to much.

The discussion is on the sixth thread.

 

[SeekingJana]

Well, I remember us talking about him taking a bus out of Lewisburg a long time ago and you didn't find it feasible. I'm not sure why not though, because one of your BIG hang-ups to walkaway is how did RFG get out of Lewisburg. How much later did LE talk to the bus people? And have you ever ridden a bus? When I was a naïve and impressionable young teen, our school band took 12 Scenic- Cruiser double decker ( whatever they are called) Greyhound busses from near the eastern border of MS all the way to Houton. non stop except to change busses because one had a mechanical problem. Which meant that all 180-200 of us were also stuck at the terminal for what seemed like an eternity. I fainted from sheer exhaustion and hunger. ( Plus I am extremely intolerant of diesel fumes and always have been).

Anyway, bus terminals are usually not clean, and NO ONE gives a hoot who you are, why you are there or anything else. I suspect that an extra $20 could have talked a total stranger into buying 2 tickets instead of one going in whatever direction.
Maybe there was a concrete destination, or maybe it was a matter of getting out of town on the QT and on the first available bus IF no private auto was made available to him.

The bus line availability opens up questions for me which I didn't think existed. I seriously doubt there were CCTV capabilities.. It was meant as a joke.
Bus stations are usually known to be so dirty and they reek of desperate, unwashed bodies of people either too poor or too infirm to drive or fly to their destination, IMO. IF I were an upper middle class person wanting to disappear, I would wear very casual clothes, a hat, sneakers, and maybe plain glass eyeglasses and I know I could blend in with some forethought and planning. I think it would be much easier for a man to blend in with the mostly male crowd which I think the bus station traffic consists of.

JMO, and really, just another thing to discuss.

 

[SeekingJana]

Regarding the sightings- We don't know the hours Ray was seen exactly, nor do we even know who the woman was that was with him all these years later.

IF one takes the sightings as truth, then I think credence should be given to him having a plan for the time he was there, and also to get himself out of Lewisburg either on a bus or in a private car provided to him. MW could have been the car drop- off person.

If he was in Lewisburg, and IF he left Lewisburg alive...

 

[J. J. in Phila]

LE has at least 5 witnesses that put him in Lewisburg on 4/15 after 4:00 PM. Only one bus on that schedule leaves after that, and it goes NW to Williamsport and Lock Haven, the latter about 25 miles from Bellefonte. Any bus on 4/15 puts him closer to Centre County. He couldn't leave the area until the next day, and he'd have to spend the night someplace, basically in either town.

I'll also readily concede that there could have been another bus scheduled in 2005.

I think he could pay cash upon boarding, but that still has the problem of why other passengers/drivers wouldn't recognize him and why didn't someone see him when he was spending the night?

Another problem is, and it's the overall problem with some of the accident/health things to, is why didn't the bloodhound follow his scent to the terminal (6-7 blocks away)? It is possible that the scent could have been untraceable, but would just add to the list of things RFG couldn't control, but that went his way.