Source of the tip? #2

[cluciano63]

Could it take 5 months to work out a plea? Maybe in this type of a case it could' maybe he has to outline all of his crimes, if there are others outstanding and his lawyer is fighting that? That might explain why the hearings was pushed back to such a late date, it is my understanding that these types of plea deals can take a long time to work out. Also, a plea bargain could possibly supress some of the evidence that Escondido probably does not want out there, i.e. how they viewed Amber as a runaway for three weeks, etc...if no trial, this stuff would not be center stage, they could wrap it up with a bow. I am sure they do not want too much focus on the fact that perhaps JAG could have been captured within past year if they had really gone after the case from day one and therefore he would not have been free to kill Chelsea. So LE would benefit from a plea. As to finding her body (Amber's)-I agree that they foudn something that told them where to go could be feasible; he may have made a little drawing with an X or something, they all tend to do weird things to remember their crimes. And they may have dug longer than we know...

 

[distracted]

Seeing how he likes to revisit the scene of the crime, and in this age of technology, perhaps he revisited the scene via google map and that was his computer? BTW, did LE ever say it was an actual "tip", or did they only say they were following a "lead" and the media spun it as a "tip"?

They said it was a "lead" developed during the course of the investigation into Amber's disappearance.

 

[jadejazzkayla]

I just went back and listened to the first press conference where they state her remains have been identified. The Police officer never stated it was a "tip"--he said they were following a "lead". I think myself, and everyone else, went running with this "tip" thing because the PI Bill Garcia said LE received a "tip" --which he later recanted. A "lead" is not the same as a tip--now that I realize it was a "lead", I'm pretty sure no one told them--I'm pretty sure it's what some have been saying--forensic evidence from a GPS or Computer or whatever, but definitely evidence they found. Now I can sleep, because this has been driving me insane!

We need to know exactly WHEN the information came in as a lead or tip or whatever we call it. I think we are all assuming that this information recently became available to LE. The information may have been sitting in a file for a year or so at this point and never followed up on until now. We can't be pointing fingers at anyone for sitting on information or waiting "UNTIL NOW" to come forward unless we know when it came to light.

Remember the Dec 27th jogger's dna swab was taken that very day but not tested until after JAG's dna was found on an item of chelsea's because it was considered a robbery attempt.

The Escondido police may have had a backlog of information in Amber's file that just hadn't been checked out yet.

 

[SoCalSleuth]

Could it take 5 months to work out a plea? Maybe in this type of a case it could' maybe he has to outline all of his crimes, if there are others outstanding and his lawyer is fighting that? That might explain why the hearings was pushed back to such a late date, it is my understanding that these types of plea deals can take a long time to work out. Also, a plea bargain could possibly supress some of the evidence that Escondido probably does not want out there, i.e. how they viewed Amber as a runaway for three weeks, etc...if no trial, this stuff would not be center stage, they could wrap it up with a bow. I am sure they do not want too much focus on the fact that perhaps JAG could have been captured within past year if they had really gone after the case from day one and therefore he would not have been free to kill Chelsea. So LE would benefit from a plea. As to finding her body (Amber's)-I agree that they foudn something that told them where to go could be feasible; he may have made a little drawing with an X or something, they all tend to do weird things to remember their crimes. And they may have dug longer than we know...

Yes, it's possible to take 5 months to work out a plea--not the ususal case but possible. That said, JAG's attorney would not let him give up anything until the plea was agreed to and in writing--otherwise once the cat was out of the bag there would be no reason for the DA to agree to a plea.

 

[SoCalSleuth]

We need to know exactly WHEN the information came in as a lead or tip or whatever we call it. I think we are all assuming that this information recently became available to LE. The information may have been sitting in a file for a year or so at this point and never followed up on until now. We can't be pointing fingers at anyone for sitting on information or waiting "UNTIL NOW" to come forward unless we know when it came to light.

Remember the Dec 27th jogger's dna swab was taken that very day but not tested until after JAG's dna was found on an item of chelsea's because it was considered a robbery attempt.

The Escondido police may have had a backlog of information in Amber's file that just hadn't been checked out yet.

Excellent point, you may very well be right.

 

[cluciano63]

Unless they started talking about a plea after Amber was found, through other means? Maybe once they found her Saturday, they went back to the jail and said look, let's just get this over with, and his lawyer said we will need some time to work this out to everyone's best interests? That could take five months.

 

[sniperacer]

Then it must be from a family member because I am telling everyone in no uncertain terms, it did not come from JAG in exchange for LWOP or anything else because if it had the case would be OVER. They would not be setting arraignment dates and seeking protective orders or anything. He would only appear to enter a change in plea and then later for his sentencing.

JAG has pled not guilty. I'm sure it is OK, technically, to plead not guilty and yet just so happen to know the location of a body.

But, you are saying if you make a deal for LWOP, you also have to plead guilty. Is this correct?

 

[sniperacer]

I agree with you. When you consider that the search and digging for Amber's body was done in total darkness, LE had to have a very specific location for their search. They could not, IMO, be relying on a large area (or even not so large area) indicated by cell towers.

LE arrived Friday evening and supposedly completed their search in the wee hours of Saturday morning. The search was limited in scope and very fast, which seems to indicate direct knowledge of the crime.

Exactly - and this is important. LE found "a needle in a field of haystackes". Knowing JAG hung out at Pala, would not find the body. Even knowing the road would not find the body.

For discussion sake, the tipster knew the exact location.

 

[BOZGAL]

I don't even believe in this tipster stuff. I think LE found something when searching JAG's PC, car, personal things etc., that lead them to Amber. Maybe he wrote about it somewhere in a journal, or drew pics about her location trying to relive the moment. I just can't believe a tipster could pin point the exact location of Amber's bones unless they were there with JAG as he disposed of her. LE didn't have to look very long for Amber, less time than they looked for Chelsea, so they had pretty good idea where Amber was.

I don't either evelyn. I feel LE found something after his arrest.

JMO

 

[sniperacer]

I still think it was the gps of a car he was driving that morning. Car was turned off at this position and X hours later when turned back on it would have re connected to the gps system. Lay a map over that and there are only a few roads and turnoffs in the 1000 or so feet gps is accurate for.

Lots of GPS ideas. A couple of points.

1) A GPS is accurate to within 2 FEET with good reception. Geocachers, and hikers (i.e. me) have found that the GPS is more accurate than the maps loaded onto the GPS. Two GPS's will almost always show some variance. For example if I hide something at, say, N33 35.653 W117 43.787 according to my GPS, your GPS readings maybe off by a "tick". (Yes there is really something hidden at this position :smile.

2) GPS tracks are captured by almost every GPS. BUT the tracks are over-written over time / travel. I doubt a car's GPS would still have the track from a year ago.

3) For JAG to have some flavor of a GPS point on his computer he would have to visit something like Google Earth and entered a waypoint, or have a handheld GPS and associated software like MapSource and uploaded a track and/or a waypoint.


ETA: The above describes the your average "over the counter" GPS using the 24 satellites placed into orbit by the U.S. Department of Defense. There are GPS "technologies" which are accurate less than inches, for example, those used to measure how many inches a city moved after an earthquake.

 

[Lipin One]

JAG has pled not guilty. I'm sure it is OK, technically, to plead not guilty and yet just so happen to know the location of a body.

But, you are saying if you make a deal for LWOP, you also have to plead guilty. Is this correct?

I agree.

This week JAG and his lawyer went to court (1) seeking a gag order, (2) wanting to prevent the release of his parole records, and (3) asking for a later pre-trial date.

Last week he plead not guilty.

These two are going all the way.

No way he would volunteer where Amber's body was, meaning incriminating himself in a similar crime.

IMO

 

[JBean]

crikey for all we know he had a map to make sure he could find the exact location in the future when he went back to check the spot. It really could be anything. He may have kept a journal who knows.

 

[SoCalSleuth]

JAG has pled not guilty. I'm sure it is OK, technically, to plead not guilty and yet just so happen to know the location of a body.

But, you are saying if you make a deal for LWOP, you also have to plead guilty. Is this correct?

Absolutely--the plea agreement is that you will plead guilty in exchange for a sentence of LWOP. The judge has to accept the plea agreement.

 

[cluciano63]

could he do the Alford plea in a capital case, where they don't admit guilt but agree that evidence against them is strong enough to convict? i think that is what it means...but don't see anyone accepting a plea from him that does NOT admit guilt...

 

[kemo]

Its an interesting mystery how LE fround the body. It seems impossible to have worked out a formal plea deal in x-change for the victim's location so quickly. I would assume that his court appointed attorney would insist that he not speak to LE and LE not speak to him. He could disregard the advice and demand to "talk" anyway with out any promises. This does happen, but it is a legal "grey area". Since the case againsst him for Chelsea was rock solid, I see no reason for LE to take any chances. One possibility is that JAG gave the information to his mother or some other relative who he was allowed to communicate with. This would not be a "slip of the tounge" situation; he would have had to draw a very detailed map. It is also possible that some friend was driving with JAG in the Pala area and he insisted on driving to the spot to "check on" something. The friend probably had no idea what it was until after the arrest when he would have put 2 and 2 together.

 

[Billylee]

Amber's mother and stepfather were doing there own surveillance of sexual predators in their neighborhood. John Gardner was one of them. It said she almost got in trouble with the law because she was sort of trespassing or possibly violating someone's rights. Do you think it is possible that maybe they actually followed JAG to the casino area (the scene of the crime) a few times? And just maybe they just recently gave that info. to the police after JAG was arrested? IMO that would explain LE wanting to protect their source of the lead.

[ame]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r1Lofbb15Pc[/ame]

 

[emmcee]

I don't even believe in this tipster stuff. I think LE found something when searching JAG's PC, car, personal things etc., that lead them to Amber. Maybe he wrote about it somewhere in a journal, or drew pics about her location trying to relive the moment. I just can't believe a tipster could pin point the exact location of Amber's bones unless they were there with JAG as he disposed of her. LE didn't have to look very long for Amber, less time than they looked for Chelsea, so they had pretty good idea where Amber was.

I rather agree with you. Did LE actually say "a person" gave them the tip? If not, I am inclined to think the tip was something they found (maybe when they searched his parents' home?) which led them to the grave. Could he have been stupid enough to mark a map or leave a note or something as you suggest above?

 

[marieblasdell]

Did LE actually say "a person" gave them the tip? If not, I am inclined to think the tip was something they found (maybe when they searched his parents' home?) which led them to the grave. Could he have been stupid enough to mark a map or leave a note or something as you suggest above?

As I understand it, the original wording was a 'lead', rather than a 'tip', which does point toward your line of thinking. I'm hoping he 'revisited the scene' via Google maps on his computer.

 

[Billylee]

I think the question I have isn't so much as who it came from or what it was physically, but WHY they feel they should not mention it. If it was something they found on his computer, why wouldn't they just say so? How would that hinder the case? If, on the other hand, it came from someone they are protecting, that would make more sense to me.

 

[Billylee]

Amber's mother and stepfather were doing there own surveillance of sexual predators in their neighborhood. John Gardner was one of them. It said she almost got in trouble with the law because she was sort of trespassing or possibly violating someone's rights. Do you think it is possible that maybe they actually followed JAG to the casino area (the scene of the crime) a few times? And just maybe they just recently gave that info. to the police after JAG was arrested? IMO that would explain LE wanting to protect their source of the lead.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r1Lofbb15Pc

I know I'm quoting myself here but, I am assuming that the male speaking in this report is Amber's stepfather, but then I thought, well maybe it's not, maybe it's an uncle or neighbor. Does Amber have a stepfather, I just assumed it because of her mother having a different last name?