I'm only at page 25 so far, but I've noticed that the vast majority of posters seem to have decided that AW was the intended target.
There was at least one other Alastair/Alistair/Alisdair Wilson residing in Nairn at the time of AW's killing. If we assume that AW was not the intended target, this would immediately explain a lot of the unanswered questions surrounding the murder. Here's how I believe the incident played out - all MOO, of course. It's a bit wordy, sorry.
- The killer arrives at AW's address and knocks on the door. VW answers and the killer asks to speak to AW.
- AW asks VW to confirm that the perpetrator asked for him by name. Putting myself in AW's shoes, if somebody came to my door and asked for me by name - and I genuinely had no idea who this person was why they were asking for me at that time on a Sunday evening - one of my first questions to my partner would be "And they asked for me? By name?".
- Whatever was discussed between AW and his killer during the initial conversation left AW none the wiser. He takes the envelope from the killer and goes back into the house to speak to VW to see if she has any idea about what the killer may be referring to. I don't believe the envelope was empty - more on this later.
- VW confirms that she has absolutely no idea about what the contents of the envelope refer to, who the killer is, or what he's doing at their door.
- AW returns to the door, explains to the killer that he is not the person the killer is looking for and hands back the envelope.
- The killer then shoots AW.
My theory is that the killer was local, on foot and certainly not a professional. As has been discussed, the gun used is relatively (by UK standards) common. I suspect that if I was looking for a gun on the black market, the model in question is something that would be somewhat easy and cheap to source - it's far too low powered and inaccurate to be of much use as a 'proper' gun, but still somewhat attractive to somebody with little to no knowledge of firearms.
Likewise, disposing of the gun in a nearby drain seems sloppy to me. I know the Nairn area well, I'm by no means a trained assassin myself but I honestly can't think of anywhere in the local vicinity where a gun could be safely disposed of at that time of the evening. My first thought would be the sea - a section of Nairn promenade is completely unlit for almost a mile. You could walk down there in dark clothing and be utterly invisible at anything further than 6 feet. However, the tide would be in at that time of night, and you'd need one heck of a throwing arm in order to be able to get the gun far enough out that it wouldn't be at risk of washing up at low tide. Perhaps the killer intended to dispose of the gun in this fashion before having second thoughts and doubling back/continuing his route to drop it in a nearby drain. I suspect that the killer had begun to panic by this point, there would have been a visible Police response by the time he had reached the seafront and would want rid of the weapon as soon as possible. If he was not local, or had arrived by car, he would have had significantly more opportunity to dispose of the weapon at a later date, significantly further from the crime scene.
What if 'Paul' was a victim of
an Alistair Wilson who was erroneously traced to AW's address? Let's speculate for a moment that somewhere, somebody named Paul was victimised by an individual named Alistair Wilson who had then relocated around the same time that AW had. Bearing in mind that this was 2004 - very much in the infancy of the World Wide Web and long before Social Media had taken off - the simplest ways to track down a person were using public phone records, companies house, the electoral register and good old hear-say.
Paul - or Paul's parents/partner/friend could have tried to track down this other Alistair Wilson and instead found AW, who just happened to have moved to Nairn the same time as the other Alistair had relocated. Paul then contacted 'a mate that knows a mate' to find an individual local to Nairn that would be willing to carry out the killing in exchange for a sum of money.
Once a willing hitman was found, an envelope with a picture of Paul was forwarded to him, to be handed to AW as a 'message' before being killed.
Here's what I believe happened. All conjecture and MOO:
- Somewhere in the UK prior to 2004, an Alistair Wilson completely unrelated to AW causes some kind of harm or grievance to an individual named Paul.
- This Alistair Wilson then relocates to avoid any recrimination or retribution for his actions.
- Paul (or somebody close to Paul) decides to pursue this other Alistair Wilson, finds AW - who's movements likely closely match the other Alistair - and decides this must be their man.
- Paul uses their contacts to enlist the services of an amateur hitman local to Nairn to send the message and carry out the hit. (This might seem far-fetched, but anyone local to Nairn will know that there are plenty of rather desperate individuals who would quite gladly knock somebody off for a few grand). The Hitman is undoubtedly given a description of the target, but this is likely of no consequence - especially if the guy is of the 'Kill a bloke for £5K' variety.
- Hitman arrives at the door, is met by VW and asks to speak to AW. AW comes to the door, the hitman hands him the envelope with dialogue along the lines of "Do you know who this is?". AW doesn't quite match the description of the target, which makes the Hitman reconsider, but he really wants his payout.
- AW opens envelope to find a photograph of Paul (2004, no smartphones or decent cameraphones. Also, an envelope is more dramatic).
- AW has no idea whatsoever who Paul is, does not recognise the photograph and says "Hold on, let me speak to my wife" and shuts the door, completely oblivious that this guy is here to kill him. This catches the amateur hitman (who is already reconsidering) off-guard, who then impotently hangs around for AW to get back.
- AW goes to speak to VW, "Have you ever seen this guy before? His name is Paul. The bloke outside says we know him." VW confirms that she has absolutely no idea who Paul is.
- AW goes back to the door to explain to the hitman that he has the wrong house (and the wrong Alistair Wilson), while AW was speaking to VW, the hitman has had time to consider his position and decides to carry out the hit regardless, shooting and killing AW.
- Hitman leaves the scene to dispose of the weapon and make his escape on foot.
This theory would also tie up why VW has never disclosed what was discussed between her and AW during the incident. Perhaps the police don't want it to be public knowledge that AW was never the intended target. Perhaps there is context in the dialogue between AW and VW that directly implicates another Alistair Wilson or somebody else that is still under investigation who is not otherwise tied to AW or VW. If it was a picture and VW was allowed to speak publicly, we might know if Paul was a child or an adult. Again, evidence which might be important to an ongoing investigation.
Finally,
everyone has skeletons in their closet. There was plenty going on in AW's private/professional life which could be seen as a possible (if unlikely) motive for his murder. Be it an objection on a planning application, a disgruntled employee or BoS customer, a potential illicit relationship - I find it somewhat far-fetched that any of these would result in the soliciting of a hitman to eliminate AW. You could find potential motive for just about anybody's murder if you dig deep enough into their personal life.
