Stating that someone had a motive to harm Brian based on looking in his direction on camera, or stating Brian had a motive to hurt himself/run off because of his circumstances, etc. These are all pure speculative with no supporting facts. Since these plans generally involve leaving the bar, they also come with the assumption that someone (or Brian himself) knew how to get him out undetected, knew how to hide him(self) so well that he hasn’t been found for 12 years, and all parties involved stayed silent for this long. It’s one unlikely event after another. It’s one unsupported statement after another.
The FACTS we know are:
-Brian was never seen or heard from again in any way shape or form after 1:55am
-Brian was never seen leaving the only public exit
-This was a fairly large building with ongoing construction
I know that police searched the construction site and didn’t find him. Nonetheless, the simplest explanation which requires the fewest assumptions is that he wasn’t seen leaving because he never left (due to an accident) and his body is simply someplace so hidden that everyone has missed him (examples: in a construction trench, in duct work, someplace very hidden on the roof, or some other spot that no one would have thought to look, etc). The principle of Occam’s razor would state this is the most likely scenario because it fits the facts we know with the fewest assumptions.
I don't see how Occam's Razor applies in this case. You are discounting the fact the police detectives searched the building with cadaver and scent dogs and did a thorough search. I personally have never seen photo and what the construction area looked like, but I am sure that the police still have photos and did that search with the help of the workers. Also we just recently found out that the doors were chained shut. Detective Hurst said it was maybe possible that Brian pushed the door open to slide through. If so then he would have had to do this with 2 doors. The first door was visible by a lot of people and 2 police officers.
So lets assume that Brian went by the way of the construction area.
Brian pried open the first door, but was not seen by anyone out in the hallway or by the 2 police officers trying to pry a door open. Brian would have had to have done this and get past Clint and Meredith. Remember that Clint and Meredith searched for Brian in the bar at around 2 am. They were seen leaving down the escalator at 2:09.
So Brian got though the door (was both doors ever dusted for prints?) somehow climbed down a ladder in the dark and navigated his way though this what looked to be a long maze of who knows what. Had to be lots of equipment and other stuff he could have hurt himself and possibly cut himself.
So it's your belief without even knowing what this area looked like that Brian is still inside that building and in the construction area? You state 3 facts of the case but there is no simple explanation. There was also another way out and much easier. The police mentioned that he also could have jumped off the balcony. That would be a lot easier than going the construction way.
Also think of what the possible mind set was of Brian at the time. He tells Clint hey I'm going to talk to the band. Whether he did or didn't if he walked back to that area at some point Brian would have had to make a U turn walk out in the hallway and think, Hey I'm going to pry open that door to the construction area and see what's behind that door? Why in the world would he do that? He had no way of knowing where it led to. For all he knew it was a small room?
Also, he would have to wonder if he was going to be seen not only by the police but by other people out in the hallway and possibly the 2 girls he just talked to minutes before. OK so he walks up to the door hoping he's not seen tries to open it sees that it is locked or chained in someway and then proceeds to push on the door till he can squeeze through. Brian is tall, 6ft 2 and has a fairly muscular upper body. How far did that door open? 4 inches? 6 inches? How hard did he have to push to get through? Did he make any noise?
I personally having been there and find it hard to believe that he somehow secretly went through that door without being seen and why in the world would he even be temped? All he had to do was go down the escalator when he went back out the bar to leave.
To get back to the band comment. When Brian said he was going to talk to the band he had to walk towards the back in the opposite direction of the entrance. Some where along that walk Brian decides to leave the bar and if he did go to the construction door Brian had to walk out into the hallway and at some point say to himself hey I'm not going down these stairs to leave I'm going to try door number 2 and see where that leads?
Brian was never see again on tape so this means that his decision to go out the construction door was pretty much made before he left the bar exit. We know he didn't come out and walk far enough towards the stairs to be seen on camera. We do know that the camera caught a pretty good few of the hall and stairs.
If Brian wanted to go out the construction door why didn't he do it immediately after talking to the 2 girls? We know that he went back in to talk to Clint and Meredith. So at that point Brian was not ready to leave. He could have easily walked away from the girls and went straight down the stairs if he was ready to leave.
The million dollar question in my mind is not "where" did Brian go but "why" did Brian go? Once he walks away from Clint and Meredith WHY did he decide to do what he did? In my opinion Brian went back to the stage area and hid under the stage till closing and went off the balcony. Why did he and where he went I have no clue. All we can do is guess. From there I would say he met with foul play but because we have heard that the police think Brian is still alive (at least at some point they did) I have to wonder if he made it to where he wanted to go?
