OH OH - Brian Shaffer, 27, Columbus, 1 April 2006 - #3

[embufum]

embufum--I agree with you that the construction doors near the top of the escalator are an unlikely entry point given that there were two CPD officers and the doors were likely chained. I have always felt it's more likely that he found some other very unlikely / very hidden point of entry. One that is very unusual and that no one has thought of (hence the reason he hasn't been found). One theory that comes to mind which I've brought up many times is the roof. If he made it to the top of the roof, walked across until he was above the construction area, then fell, it could in theory be possible that he ended up in some very unlikely crevice of some sort. This is just one thought, but perhaps there was some other very usual way that no one has uncovered. I like Ozoner's thought in the previous post about possibly accessing the construction site from the roof of the restaurant somehow.

A lot of your post is focused on the doors. This is a fairly large building (despite the bar itself being pretty small), and we never see him definitively re-enter the bar, so who knows where he could have wandered off to, or what unlikely areas he could have accessed.

I also think--as I've said many times--that it might not be the construction area at all, but some other very unlikely, highly concealed area (on the roof itself, in duct work, etc.). I don't doubt that the police searched the building thoroughly, but it would not be the first time that a body was hidden so well in an unusual spot within a building that no one notices.

I do think Occam's razor applies in this case, as it does with any scenario where there are multiple explanations possible. In a previous post, I tried to outline all of the assumptions that accompany the four most popular theories in this case to show that a well-hidden accident is the most probable theory (see post #331). I have yet to see compelling evidence that the other theories carry fewer assumptions.

I agree that a jump from the balcony is more likely than accessing the construction site if you are merely comparing these two events head-to-head in a vacuum. But given the circumstances, for the balcony-jump theory to be true, he would have to have jumped from the balcony AND no one saw it AND no cameras from surrounding bars picked him up AND there has been no trace of him for 12 years since then AND anyone either assisting him or who caused him harm after he left has kept quiet for 12 years despite significant reward money. All of these unlikely events compounded together make this scenario exponentially less likely than the theory that he had an accident in a highly concealed location and hasn't been found.

I also agree that knowing Brian's motive for whatever he did that night would be crucial information, but unfortunately there's a good chance that this will never be known...

One thing is for sure, no one has a clue where he went. It's amazing that no matter how many scenarios everyone plays with including the police no one can say with any amount of certainty where and why.

The police have said that there are 3 scenarios but they won't disclose that info. Clint's attorney, one of the detectives that Clint's attorney talked to, the Private detective that was working for Randy all have said they think Brian is alive. Randy was also convinced that Brian was alive. If the police think that he is alive then they must have a reason which I would assume is from some type of evidence. They are not telling us why but I can't imagine what they know that makes them think that.

 

[embufum]

embufum--I agree with you that the construction doors near the top of the escalator are an unlikely entry point given that there were two CPD officers and the doors were likely chained. I have always felt it's more likely that he found some other very unlikely / very hidden point of entry. One that is very unusual and that no one has thought of (hence the reason he hasn't been found). One theory that comes to mind which I've brought up many times is the roof. If he made it to the top of the roof, walked across until he was above the construction area, then fell, it could in theory be possible that he ended up in some very unlikely crevice of some sort. This is just one thought, but perhaps there was some other very usual way that no one has uncovered. I like Ozoner's thought in the previous post about possibly accessing the construction site from the roof of the restaurant somehow.

A lot of your post is focused on the doors. This is a fairly large building (despite the bar itself being pretty small), and we never see him definitively re-enter the bar, so who knows where he could have wandered off to, or what unlikely areas he could have accessed.

I also think--as I've said many times--that it might not be the construction area at all, but some other very unlikely, highly concealed area (on the roof itself, in duct work, etc.). I don't doubt that the police searched the building thoroughly, but it would not be the first time that a body was hidden so well in an unusual spot within a building that no one notices.

I do think Occam's razor applies in this case, as it does with any scenario where there are multiple explanations possible. In a previous post, I tried to outline all of the assumptions that accompany the four most popular theories in this case to show that a well-hidden accident is the most probable theory (see post #331). I have yet to see compelling evidence that the other theories carry fewer assumptions.

I agree that a jump from the balcony is more likely than accessing the construction site if you are merely comparing these two events head-to-head in a vacuum. But given the circumstances, for the balcony-jump theory to be true, he would have to have jumped from the balcony AND no one saw it AND no cameras from surrounding bars picked him up AND there has been no trace of him for 12 years since then AND anyone either assisting him or who caused hiharm after he left has kept quiet for 12 years despite significant reward money. All om f these unlikely events compounded together make this scenario exponentially less likely than the theory that he had an accident in a highly concealed location and hasn't been found.

I also agree that knowing Brian's motive for whatever he did that night would be crucial information, but unfortunately there's a good chance that this will never be known...

I wanted to address your critique of my theory as to why he didn't jump off the balcony. I am not comparing my theory head to head to any other theory. Also, my theories credibility does not rely on someone else or any other theory to withstand any type of probability.

If Brian hid under the stage till everyone was gone no one from the bar would have seen him jump. If Brian was careful once he got out to the bar all he had to do was look first to see if anyone was out there. Now I'm not 100% sure but when I listened to the interview the detective said that if Brian went out the patio and jumped he could have eluded the cameras. I would guess this would be if after Brian jumped down and went to the right towards the alley way.


None of what I have proposed here is really all the hard for Brian to do. The question is DID he do it not COULD he have done it because he certainly COULD have. My theory could be totally wrong but weighing this out against others seems more likely than Brian going through the construction site or somehow how getting to the roof and falling in a crevasse. In order for that to happen Brian would have had to go out the emergency exit door right a crossed from the construction site door. He would have had to get lucky and not set off an alarm. Then he would have had to find his way up to the roof from there. This was assuming the roof was accessible from the emergency exit. Then we need to know if the door to the roof was locked even if it was accessible but I would guess it's not.

If he didn't get past the emergency door there is no way he got past the 2 officers watching the hallway and more cameras down the hall toward the theaters. This also goes back again to Brian's mindset. Why in the world would Brian want to go to the roof? How would he even know how to get there? None of us have the layout of the building and I would think that Brian didn't either. Thinking that there is some highly concealed area that is unknown to the police after consulting with management is just not probable IMO.

You also mention the reward. If someone harmed him they certainly are not going to talk. If Brian had help then the person who helped him would probably NOT be eligible for any type of reward money.

So a good question would be did Brian have help? As I mentioned before as far as we know Brian had one friend and that was Clint? How many people here think that Clint was Brian's only good friend? The truth is we just don't know. I can only assume, but if I assume that he did have other close friends we can speculate that one of them was close enough to Brian to possibly help him disappear. I personally can think of two friends that would help me. That's obviously a heck of a lot to put on a friend, but under the right circumstances who knows.

We are all at a disadvantage playing this "game". We don't know all the rules and have no idea who we are playing the game with so to speak. The police know way more than we do and they don't know "where" he is but they at least feel he could have made it out of there alive. I understand where you are coming from. The easiest way to solve this is to assume he is still in that building. This way we can just discount all the other scenarios and theories that he made it out of there dead or alive.

One more thing and sorry to everyone if it seems like I'm rambling. When I went to the bar I walked in about 5 pm. There were two employees and I think 3 people there but they were getting ready to leave. If there was anyone else there they were in the kitchen area and I never saw them. I walked to the back of the room and sat at the end of the bar. What I immediately noticed was how small this place was. I remember thinking wow how the heck did he get lost in here.

Even if it was still pretty crowded at 2 am Brian would be hard to miss. I started looking around and it was pretty quick I noticed the stage for the band. Another thing I noticed was the curtain in front of the stage. Part of the curtain was stuck on the stage so the underneath of the stage was visible. It hit me right then what a good place to hide it was. I then saw the garage doors that were open right next to the stage that allowed access to the patio and I told my friend what I was thinking. I really tried to be open minded. I tired NOT to think WHY but IF it was possible. I now had the HOW but not the WHY. It fit, this could be HOW Brian eluded Clint and Meredith so quickly and HOW he went undetected.

I can't blame anyone for having certain theories about what could have happened inside the bar but once I entered the bar lots of them went out the window (no pun intended) once I saw how small this place is. So look at it this way. There just so happens to be a way for Brian to not only hide inside that bar but there is also a way to get out without being seen by the camera in the hallway. What a coincidence or maybe not?

 

[Satch]

Some time calculations: And questions.

If Brian eluded detection by hiding under the stage until closing time and than going to the roof. How far would it take for him to get to the roof and jump off of it?

If Brian jumped, do you think he landed on concrete and no one saw the body, or they saw the body panicked, and hid the body?

If Brian went out through the construction site, how long do you think that took before he met danger and likely death? How long would that take as opposed to going to the roof?

Or do you think Brian met with foul play in the bar or outside the bar, and the person who killed him did so well in hiding his body that he will never be found?

The first option presented at least seems like the shortest time interval. I had forgotten that the construction site was chained.

Satch

 

[Satch]

One thing is for sure, no one has a clue where he went. It's amazing that no matter how many scenarios everyone plays with including the police no one can say with any amount of certainty where and why.

The police have said that there are 3 scenarios but they won't disclose that info. Clint's attorney, one of the detectives that Clint's attorney talked to, the Private detective that was working for Randy all have said they think Brian is alive. Randy was also convinced that Brian was alive. If the police think that he is alive then they must have a reason which I would assume is from some type of evidence. They are not telling us why but I can't imagine what they know that makes them think that.

Why won't LE release the three scenarios that they theorize? This seems like LE could be preventing closure to this case by withholding that information.

Satch

 

[embufum]

Why won't LE release the three scenarios that they theorize? This seems like LE could be preventing closure to this case by withholding that information.

Satch

Good question. Maybe someone who interviews Det Hurst next should start asking some questions that have never been asked before.

 

[embufum]

Some time calculations: And questions.

If Brian eluded detection by hiding under the stage until closing time and than going to the roof. How far would it take for him to get to the roof and jump off of it?

How would Brian get back in the building? The Tuna doors would most certainly be locked.

If Brian jumped, do you think he landed on concrete and no one saw the body, or they saw the body panicked, and hid the body?

Why would anyone who found Brian dead on the side walk hide him and how would they go undetected? Columbus isn't exactly a ghost town.


If Brian went out through the construction site, how long do you think that took before he met danger and likely death? How long would that take as opposed to going to the roof?

Or do you think Brian met with foul play in the bar or outside the bar, and the person who killed him did so well in hiding his body that he will never be found?

If he met with foul play in the bar how? Meaning how do you murder a man in front of dozens of people in a small room?

The first option presented at least seems like the shortest time interval. I had forgotten that the construction site was chained.

Satch

Answers above.

 

[itsrak]

One thing is for sure, no one has a clue where he went.

Gotta disagree. IMO, as noted in prior posts by me and many others, there are pretty solid clues as to where Brian went. Clues suggesting that where he went, is nowhere - didn't leave the complex. His remains still there.

 

[embufum]

Gotta disagree. IMO, as noted in prior posts by me and many others, there are pretty solid clues as to where Brian went. Clues suggesting that where he went, is nowhere - didn't leave the complex. His remains still there.

You know where he is or you “think” you know. Honestly if you have one solid clue that puts Brian in the building I’d love to hear it please. Please don’t say because we didn’t see him leave.

 

[itsrak]

You know where he is or you “think” you know. Honestly if you have one solid clue that puts Brian in the building I’d love to hear it please. Please don’t say because we didn’t see him leave.

"Know"?! Please.

 

[embufum]

"Know"?! Please.

You said there are a bunch of solid clues that he never left the building. I don't recall any being posted on here or anywhere else. At the end of your post you said "His remains still there". You could be right he could be there, but I've never hear anyone give any solid info as to him still being there. Wondering what you are referring to.

 

[Valiant]

For anyone that thinks he somehow wandered into the construction site and was buried under concrete poured on Monday:
Pouring concrete is very labor intensive work. It comes out of the truck and workers spread it around. It's very unlikely Brian was accidentally buried under fresh concrete.
There are other scenarios, but most constructions sites are hubs of activity so a body disappearing unnoticed in one would take a bit of effort to hide the body first.

 

[neesaki]

For anyone that thinks he somehow wandered into the construction site and was buried under concrete poured on Monday:
Pouring concrete is very labor intensive work. It comes out of the truck and workers spread it around. It's very unlikely Brian was accidentally buried under fresh concrete.
There are other scenarios, but most constructions sites are hubs of activity so a body disappearing unnoticed in one would take a bit of effort to hide the body first.

What can I say, Thanks is not enough.

 

[Ozoner]

For anyone that thinks he somehow wandered into the construction site and was buried under concrete poured on Monday:
Pouring concrete is very labor intensive work. It comes out of the truck and workers spread it around. It's very unlikely Brian was accidentally buried under fresh concrete.
There are other scenarios, but most constructions sites are hubs of activity so a body disappearing unnoticed in one would take a bit of effort to hide the body first.

I am familiar with construction sites and I've already mentioned a couple of ways that it could happen.

You're talking about the pouring and spreading of concrete for floors, roads, or walkways. Pouring concrete for footings, pillars, and subterranean walls would be somewhat different.

However, burial under concrete is not the most likely scenario, even if Brian's body is still on site. It would have been easier for him to disappear after concrete had already been poured but before backfilling along walls and pillars had been completed. (Someone mentioned that possibility a while back.)

It would also have been possible for him to become lodged between two concrete walls or inside some kind of ventilation shaft.

 

[embufum]

So listened to the podcast again. So Det. Hurst thinks Brian exited by the way of the construction area.

"The basic indication right now is somehow he got down into the construction area and most likely got, exited out of there but again we don't have anything on video to support that it's just speculation at the time."

I wonder what he would say about Brian going out the patio way. I read an interview by one of the detectives and that was mentioned.

After he swapped phone numbers with both of the girls out in the hall Hurst said that Brian did go back into the bar although that was not on camera. So the curious thing is he came back out and somehow "got down into the construction area". Got down means IMO he somehow got through the construction area door and went down a ladder. So nobody saw him? I wonder if someone actually did but they just don't have any idea that this guy disappeared.

I'm betting that if Brian did go that way someone saw him and just didn't really think or care much of it. I have friends who live in Columbus and they never heard of Brian. So a bunch of people may have seen something but aren't even aware.

So apparently the break in to Brian's apartment that happened about a month after he disappeared had nothing to do with his disappearance, but he said he couldn't comment on much of it. I've always wondered if this was just a coincidence. He said that the locks were not changed and I recall that the door was kicked in. IF this was Brian maybe he didn't have his keys.

So Brian's apartment was broken into a month after he disappeared.
His phone pinged a few month later a think Pickerington.
When Randy died someone posted from a library claiming it was Brian and mentioning Virgin Islands.

Yeah I know all of this has been explained but still gotta wonder. What if Brian was still living in the Columbus area for a while? I know I know, and what if there really is a Santa Claus.

 

[XPh]

embufum—I’ve been gone a few days and haven’t had time to respond to your long post, but do want to mention a few things

First, (and I think you realize this, but for clarity) my “critique” of your theory isn’t to suggest it is impossible. It’s not impossible. It’s just that it’s far less likely. You pointed out that there would have to be several unlikely events for the construction site theory (accessing it without triggering an alarm, police missing him). I’d argue that the unlikely events that would need to happen in the stage-hide-balcony-jump theory are far more unlikely—especially evading any and all detection for 12 years. That’s really, REALLY unlikely.

You question his motive in heading to the roof, too. I would contend that it’s easier to come up with a motive for him wanting to explore the roof than a motive to want to hide under the stage then jump out the balcony. What purpose would that serve? If he wanted to disappear, he could just walk off and disappear after heading home for the night.

 

[XPh]

I think it’s important as we consider things that might have happened to Brian to think about what we can learn from other potentially similar cases. I know that every case is different, but these two have always stood out to me as most closely related to something that could have happened to Brian.

First, Jamie Minor. This was a very sad situation in which she became trapped in duct work:
https://www.nydailynews.com/amp/new...n-duct-steakhouse-austin-tex-article-1.132047
One thing that always struck me about this case is that it appears the only reason they found her was bc they found some belongings of hers near where she entered the duct. I’ve always wondered if not for that, if she would be another unsolved missing person case...

Second, Eduardo Sanchez:
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-chat/1035089/posts
I find it amazing that this man was undetected for over a year, concealed by something as simple as cigarette smoke masking the stench. Obviously, there’s no way that this exact situation could have happened to Brian, but I think there could still be a lesson learned—something seemingly insignificant could be the key thing that is keeping the mystery concealed.

There are others who have been trapped in walls (see: Mary Cerruti or Timothy Johnson), and certainly plenty more who have been trapped in chimneys.

As hard as it is for us to know what happened to Brian, I think the key could be in thinking about lessons learned from these previous cases.

 

[Satch]

embufum—I’ve been gone a few days and haven’t had time to respond to your long post, but do want to mention a few things

First, (and I think you realize this, but for clarity) my “critique” of your theory isn’t to suggest it is impossible. It’s not impossible. It’s just that it’s far less likely. You pointed out that there would have to be several unlikely events for the construction site theory (accessing it without triggering an alarm, police missing him). I’d argue that the unlikely events that would need to happen in the stage-hide-balcony-jump theory are far more unlikely—especially evading any and all detection for 12 years. That’s really, REALLY unlikely.

You question his motive in heading to the roof, too. I would contend that it’s easier to come up with a motive for him wanting to explore the roof than a motive to want to hide under the stage then jump out the balcony. What purpose would that serve? If he wanted to disappear, he could just walk off and disappear after heading home for the night.

Good points,

Why act so mysterious about it and worse, put your life at risk? Unless Brian was so drunk that he did not have a sense of proper judgment and thinking. I think we mostly agree that he died that night. The disagreement is if he died, how he died? Where is his body? And if it wasn't foul play, why did he do it? And do so to avoid detection for twelve years?

Do you think anybody knows what happened and is not talking? Or do you think that this is a true mystery for all? Do you think Brian Shaffer will ever be found? Alive or remains?

Satch

 

[XPh]

Good points,

Why act so mysterious about it and worse, put your life at risk? Unless Brian was so drunk that he did not have a sense of proper judgment and thinking. I think we mostly agree that he died that night. The disagreement is if he died, how he died? Where is his body? And if it wasn't foul play, why did he do it? And do so to avoid detection for twelve years?

Do you think anybody knows what happened and is not talking? Or do you think that this is a true mystery for all? Do you think Brian Shaffer will ever be found? Alive or remains?

Satch

I personally think his remains will be found eventually, but it might not be for a very long time. If his remains are somewhere in the building, it could take until the next time that the building is replaced or at least major renovations performed before he is found. Unless there is a way to make use of newer technology to somehow unlock clues... I wonder if any advances in technology have occurred in the last 12 years that would make a search within the building more effective today?

 

[neesaki]

I have no idea what happened to Brian. I do however find his comments to Alexis to possibly be telling. To move on without him.... and his desire to just play in a band, etc. Perhaps this was a gentle subtle hint that this was to come. Just something that has stayed with me. Who knows.

This is one of those really baffling cases, in some ways like Amy Bradley’s case, maybe there will never be any Resolution.

 

[embufum]

embufum—I’ve been gone a few days and haven’t had time to respond to your long post, but do want to mention a few things

First, (and I think you realize this, but for clarity) my “critique” of your theory isn’t to suggest it is impossible. It’s not impossible. It’s just that it’s far less likely. You pointed out that there would have to be several unlikely events for the construction site theory (accessing it without triggering an alarm, police missing him). I’d argue that the unlikely events that would need to happen in the stage-hide-balcony-jump theory are far more unlikely—especially evading any and all detection for 12 years. That’s really, REALLY unlikely.

You question his motive in heading to the roof, too. I would contend that it’s easier to come up with a motive for him wanting to explore the roof than a motive to want to hide under the stage then jump out the balcony. What purpose would that serve? If he wanted to disappear, he could just walk off and disappear after heading home for the night.

Thanks for the reply. So just to go over a few of your points. I never said that Brian would have had to get through an alarm system to access the construction site. I was referring to the emergency exit right across from the construction door that had an alarm on it in reference to accessing the roof.. I can see how anyone could get that wrong with all the talk about doors and stuff.

Now, as I said before we don't even know if that door leads to the roof. I'm only guessing here but I wouldn't think that emergency exit which leads to the down stairs door would lead to the roof. Also, I would think that a door that leads to the roof would be locked.

Also you say that it's far less likely that he would have hid under the stage. Part of your reason is because he hasn't been seen in 12 years. To me that makes no sense. I mean how do those two things relate to each other? If Brian hid under the stage then went over the balcony he could have been killed and never been seen again. Makes little difference were he was before he was murdered.

OK, now you asked what purpose would it serve to hide under the stage and jump over the balcony. . Going out the patio way is just an easy way out. Much easier than navigating the construction site. I'm going by what Det. Hurst said. He said trying to find a way out through the construction site would be very hard even for a sober person.

So if Brian never hid under the stage we still have an easy way for him to get out. Why in the world would Brian hide under the stage? Before I try and answer this I can tell you it would have been really easy for me when I was there to walk over crawl under there and not be seen, but it was just me my friend the bartender and a girl in training.

So how much easier or harder would it have been on the night Brian went missing? It was 2 am in the morning and very dark in there. We don't know if the band was still playing and how many people where still there. We do know that last call was at 2:10 so there may still have been quite a few people.

There is also something else to consider that I just thought of. Would the patio doors been open that night? It's still pretty darn cold in Columbus that time of year. One of the detectives mentioned in an interview that Brian could have exited from the patio and may not have been seen. I really wonder if that Detective knows whether or not the patio doors were open because if they weren't the only way for Brian to leave that way would be to leave after closing and the only way not to be seen in there is to hide under the stage.

Another thing to consider. I'm going to assume it was still pretty crowded in there at 2 am because Clint and Meredith said they made a trip around the bar to find Brian. Unless that place is fairly crowded you don't need to walk around the place to see someone.

I would really love to know where in that small bar Clint and Meredith were standing when Brian said he was going to talk to the band. It would be very hard for Brian to get past the two of them. Brian walked away from them at approx 1:55 which I would assume would have been in the direction of the band which was at the back of the bar far right side and Clint and Meredith are seen going down the escalator at 2:09. In those few short minutes Brian disappeared and Clint and Meredith had already done a search for him and was calling him with no response.

IF Brian made it back towards the band this would have put him at the furthest he could go in that room away from the exit door. So that would mean he would have had to walk past both Clint and Meredith or at least one of them if they split up to find him.

Your theory is that it would make more sense for Brian to want to explore the roof than to hide under the stage and exit the balcony. What reason would Brian have for wanting to go to the roof ? Why would anyone at any time of the day let alone at 2 am? Where is the door to the roof located? I have no idea and I would have to assume Brian didn't know.

If the emergency door with the alarm on it didn't lead to the roof he's not getting a chance to go another way. The two police officers were there for that very reason. Det. Hurst said they explored the theater and other areas around the building. He said some areas had cameras some didn't and no one remembers seeing Brian.

There is a mall where I live that I have been going to for years and have actually worked there. I even worked maintenance there. This store (JC Penney) was the only store that had two floors. I had access to the whole place even the freight elevators and I never knew how to get up on the roof nor was I ever curious to find out.

Getting on to why Brian would hide under the stage. One can only speculate. Did Brian see someone who he was scared of ? Was he maybe trying to hide from Clint? Did Brian maybe want to stick around to talk to someone and maybe he didn't want Clint to know ?

Other than knowing where Brian is today if you could have the answer to one question what would it be? Mine just might be why didn't Brian use the escalator to leave the building? This may tell us all we need to know or maybe not.

If it wasn't for the comments about Brian being alive I would just assume no matter which way he left I would just assume he is dead. Once those comments were made it changes everything IMO.