OH OH - Brian Shaffer, 27, Columbus, 1 April 2006 - #3

[embufum]

You could be right. But how could they search that area after it’s already been reconstructed? I have no idea. He hasn’t been found though, so if it’s at all possible I think it should be done.

It would be nice if they could but I'd think it would be almost impossible to do now considering that most of the square footage is taken up by too many items that each store has on their floor space.

 

[embufum]

After looking at the video surveillance in more detail and considering other details about this case I am more inclined than ever in believing that Brian may still be alive. There are too many coincidences plus information that the police are withholding from the public that steers this case into a direction of a man that quite possibly not only made it home that night but had a little help in doing so.

 

[XPh]

After looking at the video surveillance in more detail and considering other details about this case I am more inclined than ever in believing that Brian may still be alive. There are too many coincidences plus information that the police are withholding from the public that steers this case into a direction of a man that quite possibly not only made it home that night but had a little help in doing so.

Your theories get refuted over and over and yet you convince yourself more. Your mind works in a strange way.

If Brian is alive, which is highly doubtful, it has nothing to do with the things you’ve brought up.

 

[embufum]

Your theories get refuted over and over and yet you convince yourself more. Your mind works in a strange way.

If Brian is alive, which is highly doubtful, it has nothing to do with the things you’ve brought up.

I'll post more soon. I look forward to more of your opinions. Thanks Buddy.

 

[Satch]

What was the name of the Construction Company that worked on the construction in the building complex of The Ugly Tuna Saloona in 2006? A question for Detective Hurst, were they ever interviewed about this case?

Satch

 

[embufum]

What was the name of the Construction Company that worked on the construction in the building complex of The Ugly Tuna Saloona in 2006? A question for Detective Hurst, were they ever interviewed about this case?

Satch

I posted this a few pages back. They were fined more than a few times, one of them being very large.

http://www.turnerconstruction.com/ex...campus-gateway

 

[embufum]

[FONT=&amp]Very recent interview with Det Hurst about the Ugly Tuna closing. Here is a small clip of him talking about the search of the building.


Hurst keeps the details of their working theories under wraps but said Wednesday that “everything is still on the table.”[/FONT]
[FONT=&amp]“We haven’t ruled out foul play, just like we haven’t ruled out that he just took off,” Hurst said.[/FONT]
[FONT=&amp]The last location where police were able to place Shaffer was at the top of the escalator leading to the bar, and some online amateur sleuths still hold the theory that he never left the building, which was partly under construction. Hurst, though, debunked that idea.[/FONT]
[FONT=&amp]“We searched every nook and cranny” of the building, including with cadaver dogs, he said.[/FONT]
[FONT=&amp]Hurst is set to retire in January.[/FONT]
[FONT=&amp]“I think at some point, everything will come together,” he said. “It’s like a puzzle. We put pieces in, and we have to work at getting them to fit.”[/FONT]

 

[ekardh]

[FONT=&amp]The last location where police were able to place Shaffer was at the top of the escalator leading to the bar, and some online amateur sleuths still hold the theory that he never left the building, which was partly under construction. Hurst, though, debunked that idea.[/FONT]
[FONT=&amp]“We searched every nook and cranny” of the building, including with cadaver dogs, he said.[/FONT]

Call me a cynic but I would take that with a pinch of salt.

Said it before, but police searched an attic FOUR times using cadaver dogs before they found Tia Sharp's body.

Brian disappeared in a building complex with construction work going on at the time. I don't think it's unreasonable to believe they missed him. Until there's a breakthrough in this case, I'm sticking to that.

 

[itsrak]

Hurst keeps the details of their working theories under wraps but said Wednesday that “everything is still on the table.” “We haven’t ruled out foul play, just like we haven’t ruled out that he just took off,” Hurst said. The last location where police were able to place Shaffer was at the top of the escalator leading to the bar, and some online amateur sleuths still hold the theory that he never left the building, which was partly under construction. Hurst, though, debunked that idea. “We searched every nook and cranny” of the building, including with cadaver dogs, he said. Hurst is set to retire in January. “I think at some point, everything will come together,” he said. “It’s like a puzzle. We put pieces in, and we have to work at getting them to fit.”

It would seem that the only option Sgt. Hurst plays down is the one - Brian died in the building, his remains still there - that if it is the actual outcome, reflects poorly on the Sgt's. investigation. Color me shocked. Not.

Can anyone tell me what the Sgt's. batting average is on this case at this time?

 

[embufum]

It would seem that the only option Sgt. Hurst plays down is the one - Brian died in the building, his remains still there - that if it is the actual outcome, reflects poorly on the Sgt's. investigation. Color me shocked. Not.

Can anyone tell me what the Sgt's. batting average is on this case at this time?

Could Brian be in the construction area? Possibly but I don't think that Det Hurst is playing anything down. I think that after searching the building he is satisfied that Brian is not there.


There are plenty of people who think that Brian is "buried" somewhere in the bottom floor of the building. Some people like to use the principle of Occam's Razor to defend their position, in other words the simplest explanation. I don't see any scenarios that involve a simple explanation. We don't even know for sure where Brian went after he walked off camera.

There are many theories and explanations. Some people will say that since Brian has not been seen for 12 years that he must dead or there is no proof that Brian is dead therefore he must be alive or yet again Brian was not seen leaving down the escalator therefore he must be buried in the construction area. There may be a correlation between the two variables but this doesn't prove cause.

We are all at a huge disadvantage in that 99% of us can only sit behind our keyboard and take little more than guesses. A small group of people have been at the Tuna not that this helps find Brian but it does give a better perspective about some theories. I have heard things like Brian was killed in the men's room and stuffed into a vent. Not possible, I have been in the men's room and there is a stall and a urinal and a sink and one small vent that maybe a rat could fit through if the cover was off. Two is definitely a crowd in there.

Brian was killed in the bar and the employees covered it up. Not likely, the bar was really small and it didn't close at 2 am like most think, it closed at 2:30 and last call was at 2:10. There were still patrons in there at that time. When watching the video of Brian outside I saw one man enter the Tuna at 1:55 am and right behind him another person a girl came up the escalator but she didn't go in she walked over towards Brian. Point being the bar was still open and still serving drinks.

Many people have a hard time not knowing where Brian went. The mystery of it can be very frustrating and because of this some people will just pick a theory usually one that can't be proven or disproved and stick with it. I personally think there is decent chance that he is still alive. I base this on things that I have found out by researching and things that I have been told in confidence but this certainly doesn't mean I don't think it's possible that Brian is dead and died that night.

I personally think Brian made it out of that building and was attempting to meet with someone and I think it was planned but it was a sudden thing, I think the leaving for good part was not related. I also think he ditched Clint and Meredith on purpose. I think his comment about going to talk to the band was something he had no intention of doing.

So yes, IMO he did go back into the bar. I also think there was a good chance someone else had his phone and he never got it back and it was probably accidental. A lot of people have dreams of leaving it all behind and one day picking up and leaving but never do. Brian had those same thoughts and actually expressed them many times. Brian was no stranger to the Caribbean and I think he was one of the few who just may have followed through with leaving it all behind.

 

[Satch]

Could Brian be in the construction area? Possibly but I don't think that Det Hurst is playing anything down. I think that after searching the building he is satisfied that Brian is not there.


There are plenty of people who think that Brian is "buried" somewhere in the bottom floor of the building. Some people like to use the principle of Occam's Razor to defend their position, in other words the simplest explanation. I don't see any scenarios that involve a simple explanation. We don't even know for sure where Brian went after he walked off camera.

There are many theories and explanations. Some people will say that since Brian has not been seen for 12 years that he must dead or there is no proof that Brian is dead therefore he must be alive or yet again Brian was not seen leaving down the escalator therefore he must be buried in the construction area. There may be a correlation between the two variables but this doesn't prove cause.

We are all at a huge disadvantage in that 99% of us can only sit behind our keyboard and take little more than guesses. A small group of people have been at the Tuna not that this helps find Brian but it does give a better perspective about some theories. I have heard things like Brian was killed in the men's room and stuffed into a vent. Not possible, I have been in the men's room and there is a stall and a urinal and a sink and one small vent that maybe a rat could fit through if the cover was off. Two is definitely a crowd in there.

Brian was killed in the bar and the employees covered it up. Not likely, the bar was really small and it didn't close at 2 am like most think, it closed at 2:30 and last call was at 2:10. There were still patrons in there at that time. When watching the video of Brian outside I saw one man enter the Tuna at 1:55 am and right behind him another person a girl came up the escalator but she didn't go in she walked over towards Brian. Point being the bar was still open and still serving drinks.

Many people have a hard time not knowing where Brian went. The mystery of it can be very frustrating and because of this some people will just pick a theory usually one that can't be proven or disproved and stick with it. I personally think there is decent chance that he is still alive. I base this on things that I have found out by researching and things that I have been told in confidence but this certainly doesn't mean I don't think it's possible that Brian is dead and died that night.

I personally think Brian made it out of that building and was attempting to meet with someone and I think it was planned but it was a sudden thing, I think the leaving for good part was not related. I also think he ditched Clint and Meredith on purpose. I think his comment about going to talk to the band was something he had no intention of doing.

So yes, IMO he did go back into the bar. I also think there was a good chance someone else had his phone and he never got it back and it was probably accidental. A lot of people have dreams of leaving it all behind and one day picking up and leaving but never do. Brian had those same thoughts and actually expressed them many times. Brian was no stranger to the Caribbean and I think he was one of the few who just may have followed through with leaving it all behind.

Embufum,

What is the strongest piece of evidence that you believe that Brian is still alive?

Satch

 

[embufum]

Embufum,

What is the strongest piece of evidence that you believe that Brian is still alive?

Satch

That is a very good question and it isn't just one thing but many things added up. Too many coincidences in my mind. There is no doubt in my mind that he wanted to leave, but foul play getting in his way is a possibly. It also bears repeating that I don't think that he picked the Tuna as a place to make his journey from.

 

[XPh]

Embufum, you’ve demonstrated many times that you don’t truly understand occam’s razor. It’s not just that an explanation is simple, it’s that it has the fewest assumptions.

Two strange and unexplained things happened that night: 1. We don’t know how he left and 2. We don’t know where he went. Because these things are unexplained, they naturally require us to make some assumptions. But if the same assumption can explain both, then that can explain 1 and 2 using fewer assumptions than a theory that uses separate assumptions to explain 1 and 2. Therefore the principle of Occam’s razor would state the theory that uses one assumption is more likely than the theory that uses two.

If we assume there is an area in the construction area where a hidden accident occurred, that explains how he left and where he went. One assumption leads to both. It’s not just about “being simple.”

I don’t know why I am even typing this, because it’s been explained so many times and so many different ways by several people, that it actually seems like you’re trying not to understand the principle.

And as it turns out, the rest of your post is a whole lot of speculation that originates in your mind only and has no factual basis.

 

[XPh]

Just finished the most recent Comeback podcast with the Don Corbett interview. Some thoughts:

-First and foremost, great job L4B as always; so thankful we have this podcast!

-I appreciated Mr. Corbett’s willingness to talk openly and share his opinions.

-I was surprised that so many of the points that he emphasized were based on speculation only. I guess it’s hard when you’re kept in the dark by LE. But I just sort of expected he would have more factual information he could share or things to set the record straight on (there were a few things like this, e.g. refuting that Clint waited at Brian’s apartment the next day).

-The more factual things that he did share didn’t seemed to be emphasized as strongly, but they sure felt important to me.

-Why do I not know more about the professor’s house that was searched as a potential crime scene? That seems HUGE to me? Did I totally miss something on this? Apologies if this has been discussed and I am late to the party, but I’d appreciate it if someone has more info to offer about this.

 

[embufum]

Embufum, you’ve demonstrated many times that you don’t truly understand occam’s razor. It’s not just that an explanation is simple, it’s that it has the fewest assumptions.

Two strange and unexplained things happened that night: 1. We don’t know how he left and 2. We don’t know where he went. Because these things are unexplained, they naturally require us to make some assumptions. But if the same assumption can explain both, then that can explain 1 and 2 using fewer assumptions than a theory that uses separate assumptions to explain 1 and 2. Therefore the principle of Occam’s razor would state the theory that uses one assumption is more likely than the theory that uses two.

If we assume there is an area in the construction area where a hidden accident occurred, that explains how he left and where he went. One assumption leads to both. It’s not just about “being simple.”

I don’t know why I am even typing this, because it’s been explained so many times and so many different ways by several people, that it actually seems like you’re trying not to understand the principle.

And as it turns out, the rest of your post is a whole lot of speculation that originates in your mind only and has no factual basis.

Awesome post, you hit another one out of the ball park! Thanks again friend for the critique.

 

[XPh]

Awesome post, you hit another one out of the ball park! Thanks again friend for the critique.

Now if only I could get you to actually slow down, read, and THINK about it for once....maybe we would be going somewhere.

 

[embufum]

Now if only I could get you to actually slow down, read, and THINK about it for once....maybe we would be going somewhere.

I'll take that under consideration brother. Thanks!!!

 

[neesaki]

Occams razor is a grand philosophy, but, it doesn't always fit. The world is more complicated than most of us would want to admit. And there is often times more involved than simplicity, such as empirical evidence, and then there’s the complex nature of human beings in general.

What is the evidence in this case? Do we even know? AFAIK, What we do know isn’t much, and there’s no evidence that has been revealed to us that Brian was buried somehow in the construction site, is there?

However, If someone here knows something I would really hope you turn it over to LE.

 

[JaimeSommers]

Question for L4B ... listened to the latest episode today. The retired detective made a comment about Brian not agreeing with his father's lifestyle. Do you have any idea what that means? It was an odd statement that piqued my curiosity.

Really enjoying the podcast!

Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk

 

[embufum]

So this is the podcast that I have been waiting for. Very good show! I have alway thought Brian was doing the med school thing because of his Mom. From almost day one I had the suspicion that Brian and his Dad were not that close. I remember years ago Randy commenting in an interview about how Brian used to like to mess with him and how they butted heads and how he would make fun of Brian's tattoo. It is also my understanding that Brian and Derek didn't really hang out that much. So in one night he took his Dad out to Dinner wanted his brother to accompany him on a night out. I wonder how many times before that night he went bar hopping with Derek.