CA CA - Barbara Thomas, 69, from Bullhead City AZ, disappeared in Mojave desert, 12 July 2019 #7

[10ofRods]

BBM:

Frankly, I can't even imagine Barb getting lost, much less no sign of her being found.

For the sake of argument, though, let's just assume all that we've been told is true.

Here's what can be inferred from RT's account:

Barb was headed off in the right direction when she and RT parted ways, as evidenced by the fact that RT didn't call out and redirect her when she "rounded the corner" or however he put it.

Presumably, if she'd been walking in the wrong direction to get back to the RV, he would have alerted her.

So, Barb was in fact walking toward the RV when RT lost sight of her.

This means she was oriented to where the RV was in relation to her location.

Barb wasn't lost.

JMO.

Picture a trail. It goes from where you are to just out of view due to a rise or foliage in the trail. The trail has a fork, one to the left (where you're supposed to go) and the other is straight. Your hiking partner is thinking "go straight." In either case, they disappear from your view.

RT and Barbara walk back from whatever hill they climbed, probably hot and exhausted. RT takes a left from the main trail to the bright white/glaringly distinctive "dry lake/dry creek" area. Barb follows briefly, but does an about-turn and heads back up to the fork. To get to comfort and safety.

But... Barb keeps going straight. She fails to make the left turn (it's not a super hard left turn, more like a Y). She goes straight because she only remembers going straight for most of their hike.

Maybe that's how both of them initially remember it.

The RV would be in view from both trails. But one would be about 2000 feet from the RV, not much need to worry. The other would continue to keep the RV in sight for, oh, maybe 3000 feet - but then it would keep going further and further from the RV, until that trail emerges on the road, 1-1.2 miles from the RV.

1/2 mile into the walk, Barb may have gotten worried. But she walks a bit further. Now she's 3/4 of a mile from the RV. More than she expected. She doesn't know how much. Maybe just another 100 feet will get her to safety? How heated was she at this point? What was her pulse rate? How impaired was she when she began to make solo decisions?

If she does turn around and go back at the half mile mark, she's now got 1 mile to walk (as compared to slightly less than .5).

National Parks often tell people not to be out in hot weather without shade at 110F for more than 15 minutes. At 105F, I'm guessing an hour might be okay - especially for a younger person. But at 30 minutes, it would probably be a very uncomfortable experience. It's very personal, though. And hydration plays a role. As do other variables involving the body of the person.

 

[RANCH]

Easy to get lost AND stay on a trail- Remember that she had been drinking, perhaps more than one, it was blazing hot, she was in a hurry perhaps why she went ahead, no way you could see the RV from that turn.... She only needed to make one tiny mistake at the junction of those trails and bingo, she's lost.

View attachment 199266

I was thinking the same thing.

We don't know how much alcohol BT consumed so isn't it possible that being impaired combined with the heat could have caused her to become disorientated and then completely lost? JMO

 

[PaulaDC]

Walkie Talkies, an air horn, a flare and a small bright kite is what hikers need with them.

 

[10ofRods]

Do they have RTs footprints? To show he actually walked the path? Do they have Barbara's footprints anywhere? If you passed the spot RT made his report at how far up the main road is the next entrance?

I don't think we know. But we have a desert garden on campus (school is starting soon) and so I went and walked in it. I do have some experience with prints. Ground was dry and hard-packed and then there was light gravel on top of that (and some medium sized gravel too). I didn't leave a noticeable print, although you could see the toe part of my shoes - not enough to get much identification. You could tell someone had been there and that the toe of my shoe was consistent with an athletic shoe. No tread marks.

The ground out there is almost like cement, sand blows constantly, rocks and gravel obscure some of the print. Scent would have been good (but VI says LE had pictures to show RT was out there - so why risk dogs and handlers to get more evidence?)

To get good identifying prints, the ground needs to be soft enough to leave at least a partial impression. The closer to the Granite Hills, the more the granite substrate exerts itself. People do not leave prints on granite (but they can leave scent under the right conditions).

I would love to go out there and video it for myself - I'd guess that there's definitely enough sand on the way to wear RT was taking pictures - but I also bet that those were not collected right away.

 

[rosesfromangels]

Picture a trail. It goes from where you are to just out of view due to a rise or foliage in the trail. The trail has a fork, one to the left (where you're supposed to go) and the other is straight. Your hiking partner is thinking "go straight." In either case, they disappear from your view.

RT and Barbara walk back from whatever hill they climbed, probably hot and exhausted. RT takes a left from the main trail to the bright white/glaringly distinctive "dry lake/dry creek" area. Barb follows briefly, but does an about-turn and heads back up to the fork. To get to comfort and safety.

But... Barb keeps going straight. She fails to make the left turn (it's not a super hard left turn, more like a Y). She goes straight because she only remembers going straight for most of their hike.

Maybe that's how both of them initially remember it.

The RV would be in view from both trails. But one would be about 2000 feet from the RV, not much need to worry. The other would continue to keep the RV in sight for, oh, maybe 3000 feet - but then it would keep going further and further from the RV, until that trail emerges on the road, 1-1.2 miles from the RV.

1/2 mile into the walk, Barb may have gotten worried. But she walks a bit further. Now she's 3/4 of a mile from the RV. More than she expected. She doesn't know how much. Maybe just another 100 feet will get her to safety? How heated was she at this point? What was her pulse rate? How impaired was she when she began to make solo decisions?

If she does turn around and go back at the half mile mark, she's now got 1 mile to walk (as compared to slightly less than .5).

National Parks often tell people not to be out in hot weather without shade at 110F for more than 15 minutes. At 105F, I'm guessing an hour might be okay - especially for a younger person. But at 30 minutes, it would probably be a very uncomfortable experience. It's very personal, though. And hydration plays a role. As do other variables involving the body of the person.

Amazing description! I was “walking with Barb” through your narrative, and this is exactly how I envision her predicament.

 

[iscaremyself]

I must of missed a link that said that an abduction was ruled out by LE.

I apologize for my error.

it wasn't exactly ruled out..as I recall a LE spokesperson said "it was being treated as a missing person because they had no reason to believe it was an abduction" paraphrased from memory

 

[PommyMommy]

I don't think we know. But we have a desert garden on campus (school is starting soon) and so I went and walked in it. I do have some experience with prints. Ground was dry and hard-packed and then there was light gravel on top of that (and some medium sized gravel too). I didn't leave a noticeable print, although you could see the toe part of my shoes - not enough to get much identification. You could tell someone had been there and that the toe of my shoe was consistent with an athletic shoe. No tread marks.

The ground out there is almost like cement, sand blows constantly, rocks and gravel obscure some of the print. Scent would have been good (but VI says LE had pictures to show RT was out there - so why risk dogs and handlers to get more evidence?)

To get good identifying prints, the ground needs to be soft enough to leave at least a partial impression. The closer to the Granite Hills, the more the granite substrate exerts itself. People do not leave prints on granite (but they can leave scent under the right conditions).

I would love to go out there and video it for myself - I'd guess that there's definitely enough sand on the way to wear RT was taking pictures - but I also bet that those were not collected right away.

There are both footprints (a ton of them in the 2nd photo) and tire tread marks in these photos. More in the media thread. MOO

SBCSDVolunteerForces on Twitter
Thank you to members of @sbcountysheriff search and rescue for their continued efforts in locating Barbara Thomas in the Needles area.

9:58 AM - 21 Jul 2019

 

[rkendmar]

Picture a trail. It goes from where you are to just out of view due to a rise or foliage in the trail. The trail has a fork, one to the left (where you're supposed to go) and the other is straight. Your hiking partner is thinking "go straight." In either case, they disappear from your view.

RT and Barbara walk back from whatever hill they climbed, probably hot and exhausted. RT takes a left from the main trail to the bright white/glaringly distinctive "dry lake/dry creek" area. Barb follows briefly, but does an about-turn and heads back up to the fork. To get to comfort and safety.

But... Barb keeps going straight. She fails to make the left turn (it's not a super hard left turn, more like a Y). She goes straight because she only remembers going straight for most of their hike.

Maybe that's how both of them initially remember it.

The RV would be in view from both trails. But one would be about 2000 feet from the RV, not much need to worry. The other would continue to keep the RV in sight for, oh, maybe 3000 feet - but then it would keep going further and further from the RV, until that trail emerges on the road, 1-1.2 miles from the RV.

1/2 mile into the walk, Barb may have gotten worried. But she walks a bit further. Now she's 3/4 of a mile from the RV. More than she expected. She doesn't know how much. Maybe just another 100 feet will get her to safety? How heated was she at this point? What was her pulse rate? How impaired was she when she began to make solo decisions?

If she does turn around and go back at the half mile mark, she's now got 1 mile to walk (as compared to slightly less than .5).

National Parks often tell people not to be out in hot weather without shade at 110F for more than 15 minutes. At 105F, I'm guessing an hour might be okay - especially for a younger person. But at 30 minutes, it would probably be a very uncomfortable experience. It's very personal, though. And hydration plays a role. As do other variables involving the body of the person.

Can you speculate as to how this scenario would lead to her body being off the trail in a place where the searchers were unable to find it?

 

[PommyMommy]

Do they have RTs footprints? To show he actually walked the path? Do they have Barbara's footprints anywhere? If you passed the spot RT made his report at how far up the main road is the next entrance?

We don't know what they have, but LE said they found no evidence of Barbara. Does evidence of Barbara include footprints? I would think so, but it's doubtful that if prints were found, LE would have been able to compare them to her footwear at that time. So, perhaps they had "potential evidence."

@dbdb11, I'm going to add this to the list of questions for reporters. MOO

 

[10ofRods]

I was thinking the same thing.

We don't know how much alcohol BT consumed so isn't it possible that being impaired combined with the heat could have caused her to become disorientated and then completely lost? JMO

I truly do think so. The 'completely' lost thing may not be quite right, but "lost enough to pass out before getting back to RV" - yep.

And once down, if she was well away from the RV, they wouldn't find her that night - or maybe the next day.

It's just very weird that they didn't find her at all. But certainly not at all unheard of.

If LE is reading, I hope they do a couple of refocus searches (one where the southbound trail hits Kelbaker and the other for at least 2 miles along Hidden Hill and a half mile adjacent. Still a big area.

 

[rosesfromangels]

I truly do think so. The 'completely' lost thing may not be quite right, but "lost enough to pass out before getting back to RV" - yep.

And once down, if she was well away from the RV, they wouldn't find her that night - or maybe the next day.

It's just very weird that they didn't find her at all. But certainly not at all unheard of.

If LE is reading, I hope they do a couple of refocus searches (one where the southbound trail hits Kelbaker and the other for at least 2 miles along Hidden Hill and a half mile adjacent. Still a big area.

Yes yes yes!

 

[wary]

Can you speculate as to how this scenario would lead to her body being off the trail in a place where the searchers were unable to find it?

Yes—this type of trouble with the heat can lead to confusion and disorientation. So, ‘trying to find shade’ could lead her off the path, to some rather unlikely place. And, there can also be a type of euphoria, where the person doesn’t even realize that there’s a serious problem—once again, the possibility of her ending up in an improbable place. Add to that the fact that SAR, both people and dogs, are not infallible, no matter how skilled and caring they are.

 

[rkendmar]

I was wondering how disoriented and euphoric one would have to be to wander off the trail into cholla and other spiny plants.
Wouldn't you be a bloody mess very quickly without anything to cover your legs and abdomen?

 

[Knox]

Forgive me if I missed this, but did RT ever ask people going by if they saw Barbara? Did he flag down any cars, asking for help, when he first realized she was missing?

Maybe he did? He may even have talked about it in one of his media interviews, but for sake of space or other editorial reasons it wasn't included.

 

[10ofRods]

Can you speculate as to how this scenario would lead to her body being off the trail in a place where the searchers were unable to find it?

I'd need to know the search radius. I agree it seems super unlikely that even if she went 1.25 miles southward, crossed the road and then...what, got afraid to walk right on the road due to narrow shoulder?

But I'm guessing the same things that led to only one of the couple missing near Amboy Crater to be found (in three weeks) and the other took 11 months. They died near each other and probably on the same day - and in an area with less plant life.

Perhaps she decided to try and walk somewhere else? (Back to freeway? She could probably hear it). Or decide to walk along parallel to the road but in the brush? I find it inconceivable that they didn't grid search the west side of Kelbaker at that point, all the way from the creek bed to the place where the other trail joins the road.

If at any point, she ended up crawling and crawled off trail, that's where she could have become less visible to searchers.

Let's say they searched 2 miles west of Kelbaker and in a 2 mile square (4 square miles, including the creek bed and some of the granite). Then widened to go 1 mile south (now 6 square miles) and up the Granite Hills and down the other side (now 9 square miles). We know they searched east of Kelbaker - at least a little. 2 square miles?

12 square miles is a fairly large search. People are taught different kinds of search parameters (grids are only one of them, there are other, more naturalistic methods). But grid searches often assign a person to 20 yard widths and proceed from there. You just can't see everything in your 20 yard swath, even with overlapping eyes. So the second sweep takes in the same area.

400 square yards in each grid square, in my scenario? (Hope that's right, I'm so tired tonight). There are 3 million square yards in a square mile, so, well, it's a lot of squares to inspect at least twice. 80 people on ground probably means 60 people searching in grid pattern (not counting dog handlers, helicopter pilots, those who oversee vehicles, communications personnel, and, of course incident managers).

I think that going almost shoulder to shoulder would work better in terrain like this:



but slow the search down considerably. Or in terrain like this (which is more like Granite hills - don't you think people should probably walk just 5 feet apart or so? So as not to avoid missing any bush at all, while criss crossing?)

 

[10ofRods]

I was wondering how disoriented and euphoric one would have to be to wander off the trail into cholla and other spiny plants.
Wouldn't you be a bloody mess very quickly without anything to cover your legs and abdomen?

Yeah, that would be super crazy. But lying down on the sand and then carefully scootching under a chamisa bush might seem like a cool game. That's why, if she's there, I think everyone things she's "near a trail." Thing is, if you count all the "trail like" things in that area, there are a lot.

Also there are a lot of what my dad called "deer trails" meaning some small trail-like things where you could try to take a short cut or make go out there to pee.

But even real trails are pretty numerous - if she took one wrong turn after leaving RT. Again, I think she had to be somewhat impaired to do this, but it's a possibility.

 

[firstsleuth]

I must of missed a link that said that an abduction was ruled out by LE.

I apologize for my error.

No need to apologize @RANCH . It’s been a very long 39 days...


Thanks again to PommyMommy; I copied and pasted her post below from the media thread:

JUL 22, 2019
California police say missing hiker who vanished 'in her bikini' was NOT abducted | Daily Mail Online
[...]

'We don't think she was abducted. It's a very remote area. There's no evidence to suggest she was abducted,' spokeswoman Jodi Miller told DailyMail.com.

The notion that Barbara may have been abducted became public after a different hiker, Shirley Powell, who was missing for days in a different national park 300 miles away, was rescued. After being found, she described being chased by a knife-wielding man.

But sheriffs say it is unlikely the same man she described has gone after Barbara.

'When that information started coming out about [the other woman], that's what created the speculation [that Barbara had been abducted] but our investigation does not indicate any signs that she was abducted,' Miller said.

[...]

Jul 22, 2019Report
Like+ QuoteReply

 

[distracted]

Well there are parts that are similar, and my experience was a short miserable hike, where I did nothing but complain.

The important thing is to focus on where she was, how far she was traveling, and the visibility/reference markers.

Even if she tried to get lost, I just can’t imagine no sign of her being found.

Especially since a search commenced fairly quickly.

 

[firstsleuth]

Walkie Talkies, an air horn, a flare and a small bright kite is what hikers need with them.

MOO: Whistles are small and can be very loud; good idea to have them while hiking

Amazing description! I was “walking with Barb” through your narrative, and this is exactly how I envision her predicament.

Agreed about the amazing description ! @10ofRods Thank you!

Regarding the Amboy hikers; I found this very interesting blog with great photos and a fascinating video. I’ve completely discounted that Barbara may have gotten lost and then not found at Kelbaker Rd. until I saw this blog with its photos and video. To me, it looks impossible to get lost at Amboy. I’m thinking they succumbed to heat exhaustion and found a tiny shady place to crawl into. Here is the link for anyone interested:

Amboy Crater: Hiking Through a Lava Field to a Volcano - California Through My Lens

But still...Kelbaker Rd is the major difference; it was right there, with the car sounds

ETA: Even with all this, I’m still on the side of the fence wanting more information from RT and not thinking she will be found there, unfortunately. I’m remembering what @PommyMommy said about things he hasn’t said...

 

[MassGuy]

Especially since a search commenced fairly quickly.

Great point. Within hours of her alleged disappearance from that location, searchers were looking for her.

This isn’t a case where someone was missing for a long period of time, and one where searchers didn’t have a solid place to start.

Had that not been the case, then I’d be open to the idea that she’s out there somewhere.