Coronavirus COVID-19 *Global Health Emergency* #18

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I’m just wrapping up yesterday’s WHO Presser and am so happy to hear Dr. Mike and Dr. Tedros talk so passionately about protecting the elderly and the vulnerable, those undergoing chemo, etc., whose lives matter. Dr. Tedros goes so far as to say that “every country has an obligation to save that person”, and if they don’t approach it this way, it is a “moral decay of society”.

These men are such beautiful people.

“At the end of the day it is a human life.”
-Dr. Tedros

“I have said so many times that we can not say we care about millions when we do not care about an individual person who may be senior, or junior...who may be young or old...every. life. matters. Every. Individual. Life. Matters. If we don’t care about every individual, whether old or young, then we are not serious...and that’s why I say it is a moral decay if we try to categorize it that way”.
-Dr. Tedros

Source:
 
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neesaki said:
I’m a bit confused about something. They’re saying if you get sick to stay home. If you stay home how will you know if you have the virus? I personally would rather stay home. Not to mention, even going to the clinic to get tested will expose others.

And, not to mention, I have serious problems being treated like a guinea pig.... just think Stu in Stephen King’s “The Stand”... that’s me. Only for me, to a point of phobia. This after considerable past bad experiences feeling like a guinea pig. JMO
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I take them to mean if you have a slight cough or low grade fever, to remain home. I know a few people that did go to their GP with moderate symptoms, they were sent home, no test scheduled, they are NOT in the high risk group, they are under 50 with no compromising medical probs. They were told to rest, drink fluids, take OTC pain reliever & the dr. Calls them daily to ask what their temp is.
And we heard the PC today, “no one can ask for the test, it is up to their doctor.” There was confusion bc the WH did say “anyone that wants a test can get a test.....”.
 
Marc Lipsitch.....please read

In places with many known & suspected COVID cases it is getting really intense. Efforts to do contact tracing are overwhelming even the top health departments Confusion Over Coronavirus Quarantines Feeds Anxiety. At this stage it is wrongheaded to pour exponentially growing resources into this strategy.
Marc Lipsitch on Twitter

It is unsustainable (effort grows with epidemic size). We need measures that while painful for all will slow social contact - cancelling public gatherings, paid sick leave, working from home, and the like. Social distancing is the general name for these interventions.

And we need to stop feeling sheepish about it and just realize that some places (Italy, Iran) are in crisis, and some are very likely in the days before crisis, a crisis that will be less bad if we slow down the virus. #flattenthecurve to reduce peak demand on health care.

The 1918 analogies have been discussed a lot and are correect. Flattening the curve reduces health care load, delays risk for everyone, and reduces total epidemic size. Here are some data from a paper we submitted to @medrxivpreprint and is awaiting clearance. Led by @ruoranepi

We looked at the epidemics in Wuhan and Guangzho and their ICU and hospital bed use vs US capacity. Summary: Wuhan's peak critical case load per capita was equal to the total number of ICU beds per capita in the US -- a similar experience to Wuhan would fill our ICU with COVID.

See attached graph......Here's the graph. Gray lines show US capacities for ICU and hospital beds Marc Lipsitch on Twitter

Guangzho intervened much earlier in their epidemic, and had a MUCH smaller peak demand. Note different scale Marc Lipsitch on Twitter

My takeaways: 1) early intervention spares the health system from intense stress -- like Philly vs. St. Louis.
2) Early intervention means before it feels bad. Guangzho intervened when they had 7 confirmed cases & 0 deaths. Wuhan's came when they had 495 confirmed cases, 23 dead.
 

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Trudie said:
I take them to mean if you have a slight cough or low grade fever, to remain home. I know a few people that did go to their GP with moderate symptoms, they were sent home, no test scheduled, they are NOT in the high risk group, they are under 50 with no compromising medical probs. They were told to rest, drink fluids, take OTC pain reliever & the dr. Calls them daily to ask what their temp is.
And we heard the PC today, “no one can ask for the test, it is up to their doctor.” There was confusion bc the WH did say “anyone that wants a test can get a test.....”.
Click to expand...

I'm impressed that the doctor calls them daily.
 
Trudie said:
Do you have any idea how many need to be tested in CA? I haven’t heard. Tysm
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I don’t know how they are defining “need to be tested”, but last week there were 10,000 people in isolation of some sort due to coronavirus, and there are many people with flu-like symptoms that are not included in those numbers.

And the state of California has 39 million people.

Only 1,075 have been tested. Of those, 157 positive cases so far.
 
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JerseyGirl said:
In Australia:

The chief medical officer, professor Brendan Murphy, on the policy of not-testing for coronavirus people, said:

We’re not testing people without symptoms at the moment. There is no value in testing people without symptoms. Currently, our approach is testing — and that’s the international approach — is testing people who have respiratory symptoms and who have been a returned traveller or who are a contact.

The focus in Australia was building testing capacity so there can be a same-day turnaround on testing results.

He said the reason there is “no value” in testing people who are asymptomatic is that a negative test result does not mean that a person is not incubating the virus. So before a person is symptomatic the test can return, essentially, a false negative.

UK minister tests positive as deaths outside China pass 1,000– as it happened
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Glad you found this article! I think some don’t understand why everyone can’t be tested. Earlier I mentioned our gov’ & his medical team explained this today.
We are still in the 1) have you been out of the country or, 2) have you been around contacts that recently traveled.
If not, no test, unless you are otherwise compromised.
Perhaps once tests are readily available this will change.
It really seems weird. And the poor KY patient had been to the dr/hospital 4x, sent home three, because she didn’t meet the criteria for testing.
 
Japan reports biggest one-day rise in coronavirus cases since January
From Reuters:

Japan had 59 new cases of coronavirus infection on Tuesday, the biggest one-day rise since the start of the outbreak, public broadcaster NHK said.

Total infections have risen to 1,278 cases, including 696 from the Diamond Princess cruise ship and 14 returnees on charter flights from China, according to NHK data.

One new infection was reported early on Wednesday, in the western prefecture of Hyogo.

Japan has now seen 19 deaths from the virus, including seven from the cruise ship, the public broadcaster said.

Coronavirus live updates: UK health minister tests positive as stock markets wobble again
 
gitana1 said:
For the next 14 days I will worry about the doctor’s office, the aerosol of poo water from the park bathroom and the lady who so kindly coughed at my face yesterday.
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Ugh! Take your temp every day (100.4+)and don't hesitate for a moment to seek help if you have any doubt. Take care.
 
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MJPeony said:
I don’t know how they are defining “need to be tested”, but last week there were 10,000 people in isolation of some sort due to coronavirus, and there are many people with flu-like symptoms that are not included in those numbers.

And the state of California has 39 million people.

Only 1,075 have been tested. Of those, 157 positive cases so far.
Click to expand...
Thanks! Our gov’ won’t tell us how many are in isolation but people talk, lol. So in anyone’s immediate area, word travels. I’ve read that most in isolation will have a complete recovery, I hope so.
 
WASHINGTON

Asked by reporters whether he was considering mandatory measures like school closures statewide, or just in hard-hit areas, Inslee said he expected to have news on that "in very short order."

"Shutting down any social activity has profound consequences in people's lives," said Inslee. "You have to see if there are ways to reduce them or ameliorate that."

"If there are 1,000 people infected today, in seven to eight weeks there could be 64,000 people infected in the state of Washington if we don't somehow slow down this epidemic," Inslee said. "And in the next week it could be 120,000 and in the next a quarter of a million."

There were reports following Inslee's briefing that he suggested a statewide lockdown was possible.

"He did not say that," Inslee spokeswoman Tara Lee said in response to a question on these reports.

Washington state could have 64,000 coronavirus cases without 'real action,' governor warns
 
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