Coronavirus COVID-19 - Global Health Pandemic #71

[10ofRods]

WP opinion piece by Dr. Wen:
As the pandemic surges, there are three scenarios of what happens next

First one (do whatever it is we're doing right now) is probably what will happen. In the 100 days from end of July until Hallowe'en, we'd have an additional 100,000 deaths. If the projections are correct for the struggling states, it could be more. With more people indoors from Nov 1 onward, there's no reason to expect the status quo to change until overall infection rates go up. Sweden's studies of a large positive population say that immunity probably lasts for 6 months, perhaps longer in some people.

So...we just go along like this, with radically altered social and economic dynamics and millions unemployed. There's never any indoor dining as long as CoVid is still moving around in the population. ????

Obviously, we need to do scenario 2. Even if it were state by state, each state should do it. But, to me, that means radically changing what is considered "essential" work. It means giving unemployment again. Examples of work that should be dramatically curtailed or shut down would include indoor grocery shopping, people moving house, food imported from out of state (yes, that would mean shortages of some things, but we would survive), all indoor cultural activities and required PPE for LE and other first responders. Testing every other day for the truly essential workers (fast response tests, cheek swabs).

Truthfully, the things that many nations have done (Australia and New Zealand come to mind immediately) would be nearly impossible in the US. For example, if people had to print out a form stating why they needed a trip to the hardware store, and then match that submitted form to what they purchased (they would have to actually purchase at least the items they stated) or a piece of paper stating they had an actual medical appointment...Americans won't do it, they will rebel.

In California, some counties would comply and some wouldn't. And I don't think it has to do with how many CV they've already had - it's something else.

 

[beatrixpotter]

So it was 5 days to go from 13 to 14 million. Does anyone know how long it took to go from 14 to 15 million? It seemed faster.

I found an article saying it took 8 days for the last 2 million cases. So I guess the last 1 million took around 3 days?

"After the first COVID-19 case was reported in Wuhan, China, in early January, it took about 15 weeks to reach 2 million cases. By contrast, it took just eight days to climb above 15 million from the 13 million reached on July 13.

Health experts stress that official data almost certainly underreports both infections and deaths, particularly in countries with limited testing capacity."

Limited testing capacity would be the US I guess. The major labs are now reporting that they can't keep up with the testing capacity needed.

Global coronavirus cases exceed 15 million: Reuters tally


US lab giant warns of new Covid-19 testing crunch in autumn | Free to read

"Mr Davis said his company would be able to expand quickly were it not for a shortage of chemical reagents and machines from testing equipment makers such as Roche, ThermoFisher and Hologic, which are struggling to keep up with global demand. He added: “We would double our capacity tomorrow . . . but it’s not the labs that are the bottleneck. [It] is our ability to get physical machines and, more importantly, our ability to feed those machines with chemical reagents.” Quest is running its laboratories 24 hours a day but there are “more specimens coming in every day than our capacity can handle”, said Mr Davis."

US lab giant warns of new Covid-19 testing crunch in autumn | Free to read

 

[Trino]

Just heard a statement on CNN radio today that said you may not know someone who had the virus just now, but in a short time you will.

 

[slowpoke]

Actually, the second psychological study quoted in the earlier post today was conducted in Poland.

I do have a close friend who doesn't wear a mask (she lives in California), but she doesn't have a difficult personality, I would say she is fiercely independent and is college-educated. In my neighborhood here in Ohio, most of my neighbors are younger and they don't wear a mask unless going into a store. They are young, professional families, they include several accountants, two pediatricians, a pharmacist, a solar energy engineer, a manager at FedEx, and other professionals. I think they feel they are young and are less at risk. But they do respect my need and my DH's need to self-isolate due to our age and high risk situation.

It seems (maybe) what’s really hard for those that think they are “young and less at risk” to understand is the idea that wearing a mask is to protect others more than it is about to protect themselves from catching the virus.

I was trying to think of what else we do in everyday lives to protect others, and one thing I thought of was that we leash our dogs while out in public. Sometimes those who don’t leash their dog say, “Oh, my dog is harmless; he never bites.” Yet, we’ve all heard cases where it’s happened. Under a certain condition, any dog can bite.

Just as a dog owner should always leash their dog while out for the safety of others (as well as their own dog), people wearing a mask in public are protecting others (as well as ourselves).

Seems such a simple thing we can do, but apparently it’s more complicated. MOO

 

[realanastasia]

U.S. Northeast, Pummeled in the Spring, Now Stands Out in Virus Control

 

[tabitha111]

https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/07/22/894184607/u-s-to-get-100-million-doses-of-pfizer-coronavirus-vaccine-in-1-95-billion-deal

What’s even better than a fast, cheap, kinda-sorta accurate COVID-19 test? A free COVID-19 vaccine! The federal government has reached a $1.95 billion deal with Pfizer to acquire 100 million doses of its vaccine candidate against the coronavirus if the Food and Drug Administration OKs it. The vaccine would be free to Americans, though health care providers could charge to administer it.


(I am sure they would have plenty of free clinics administering this...health dept, drive up vax lines, etc. ~Tabitha MOO)
bbm

 

[sallye818]

I live in VA, but was in NC last week (Dare County)---they were much stricter on mask wearing than the places I've been in VA.

Also, to those who followed my "COVID saga" in May, I had an antibody test 2 wks ago and was NEG for COVID antibodies. I really, really, really wonder what I had during my 2 wk. illness.

 

[beatrixpotter]

As bad a shape as we are in here in the US I can't imagine the suffering so many around the world are going to be experiencing. There are so many repercussions to this horrible pandemic.

AP Exclusive: Aid from top donors drops even as need soars

"A new snapshot of the frantic global response to the coronavirus pandemic shows some of the world’s largest government donors of humanitarian aid are buckling under the strain: Funding commitments, for the virus and otherwise, have dropped by a third from the same period last year.

At a time when billions of people are struggling with the pandemic and the ensuing economic collapse — on top of long-running disasters like famine, drought or unrest — more, not less, money is urgently needed. New virus protection equipment must be bought for almost everything, from maternity wards in African villages to women’s shelters in Syrian refugee camps.

The reality on the ground could be even worse than the new analysis indicates: Crucially, it only shows promises of aid. Just how much of the billions of dollars pledged have reached those in need is not yet clear.

In some cases, the response to the pandemic has been alarmingly slow. In June, more than two dozen international aid groups wrote to the U.S. about its pledged coronavirus aid, saying that “little to no U.S. humanitarian assistance has reached those on the front lines” and calling the uncharacteristic delays “devastating.”"

 

[MrX]

First one (do whatever it is we're doing right now) is probably what will happen. In the 100 days from end of July until Hallowe'en, we'd have an additional 100,000 deaths. If the projections are correct for the struggling states, it could be more. With more people indoors from Nov 1 onward, there's no reason to expect the status quo to change until overall infection rates go up. Sweden's studies of a large positive population say that immunity probably lasts for 6 months, perhaps longer in some people.

So...we just go along like this, with radically altered social and economic dynamics and millions unemployed. There's never any indoor dining as long as CoVid is still moving around in the population. ????

Obviously, we need to do scenario 2. Even if it were state by state, each state should do it. But, to me, that means radically changing what is considered "essential" work. It means giving unemployment again. Examples of work that should be dramatically curtailed or shut down would include indoor grocery shopping, people moving house, food imported from out of state (yes, that would mean shortages of some things, but we would survive), all indoor cultural activities and required PPE for LE and other first responders. Testing every other day for the truly essential workers (fast response tests, cheek swabs).

Truthfully, the things that many nations have done (Australia and New Zealand come to mind immediately) would be nearly impossible in the US. For example, if people had to print out a form stating why they needed a trip to the hardware store, and then match that submitted form to what they purchased (they would have to actually purchase at least the items they stated) or a piece of paper stating they had an actual medical appointment...Americans won't do it, they will rebel.

In California, some counties would comply and some wouldn't. And I don't think it has to do with how many CV they've already had - it's something else.

Only time will tell what the economic ramifications are for localized virus eradication strategies, such as those underway in Australia and New Zealand. The situations in Victoria and NSW show the fragility of such strategies - is it sustainable to respond to every case with such overwhelming force?

Something that is rarely factored to these responses to the virus is the human element. Places, like NY, with strict lock downs appear to be more susceptible to mass lapses in judgement - we've all seen the stories of large street gatherings. Arizona had a relatively low impact lock down, and has responded to sources of large gatherings. The State has found a balance, in my opinion, where there are enough places for people to feel a sense of normality, that there isn't this pent up demand to go out and do something really reckless. It hasn't eradicated the virus, but numbers are coming down, across the board.

Hopefully medical science will soon deliver us a fourth option.

 

[CSIDreamer]

https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/07/22/894184607/u-s-to-get-100-million-doses-of-pfizer-coronavirus-vaccine-in-1-95-billion-deal

What’s even better than a fast, cheap, kinda-sorta accurate COVID-19 test? A free COVID-19 vaccine! The federal government has reached a $1.95 billion deal with Pfizer to acquire 100 million doses of its vaccine candidate against the coronavirus if the Food and Drug Administration OKs it. The vaccine would be free to Americans, though health care providers could charge to administer it.


(I am sure they would have plenty of free clinics administering this...health dept, drive up vax lines, etc. ~Tabitha MOO)
bbm

That's awesome!

 

[gngr~snap]

I found an article saying it took 8 days for the last 2 million cases. So I guess the last 1 million took around 3 days?

"After the first COVID-19 case was reported in Wuhan, China, in early January, it took about 15 weeks to reach 2 million cases. By contrast, it took just eight days to climb above 15 million from the 13 million reached on July 13.

Health experts stress that official data almost certainly underreports both infections and deaths, particularly in countries with limited testing capacity."

Limited testing capacity would be the US I guess. The major labs are now reporting that they can't keep up with the testing capacity needed.

Global coronavirus cases exceed 15 million: Reuters tally


US lab giant warns of new Covid-19 testing crunch in autumn | Free to read

"Mr Davis said his company would be able to expand quickly were it not for a shortage of chemical reagents and machines from testing equipment makers such as Roche, ThermoFisher and Hologic, which are struggling to keep up with global demand. He added: “We would double our capacity tomorrow . . . but it’s not the labs that are the bottleneck. [It] is our ability to get physical machines and, more importantly, our ability to feed those machines with chemical reagents.” Quest is running its laboratories 24 hours a day but there are “more specimens coming in every day than our capacity can handle”, said Mr Davis."

US lab giant warns of new Covid-19 testing crunch in autumn | Free to read

I don't understand how the bottlenecks happen, but they do.
It makes no sense to test symptomless people, with a few exceptions. I know that many hospitals are able to run the tests and they still take 2-3 days to come back.
I guess when the stop doing elective procedures, they will lower the number of tests run.
I have also heard that due to the lags, many places are not testing anymore pre surgery if an outpatient.
Labor and delivery runs the test on admission, but often mom is home before the results are back.
It feels rather pointless now.
Back in the day we treated everyone as if they had HIV/AIDS.
There was no rapid test.
Fortunately that is a disease that isn't an "episode" but more of a "syndrome"/STD.
It can be tested for weeks before delivery unlike COVID.
MAYBE, it's just me. I feel like a lot of people are spinning their wheels in general and not focusing more specifically where they need to be looking.
There are other ways to diagnose this disease.
An x-ray will show it, as will a CAT scan.
The medical world is digitized now- IMO they need to expand their testing to at least one more department within healthcare.
Laboratory and radiological.
All moo

 

[gngr~snap]

Just heard a statement on CNN radio today that said you may not know someone who had the virus just now, but in a short time you will.

Yeah, they still are saying that the true numbers are much higher.
Not under reporting per sé, but unidentified.
And more temporary units are starting to pop up here and there.
Freaking Shipping Containers!!! Joined together for more COVID beds.


Moo

https://www.facebook.com/video.php?v=1532426020297977

 

[beatrixpotter]

I don't understand how the bottlenecks happen, but they do.
It makes no sense to test symptomless people, whit a few exceptions. I know that many hospitals are able to run the tests and they still take 2-3 days to come back.
I guess when the stop doing elective procedures, they will lower the number of tests run.
I have also heard that due to the lags, many places are not testing anymore pre surgery if an outpatient.
Labor and delivery runs the test on admission, but often mom is home before the results are back.
It feels rather pointless now.
Back in the day we treated everyone as if they had HIV/AIDS.
There was no rapid test.
Fortunately that is a disease that isn't an "episode" but more of a "syndrome"/STD.
It can be tested for weeks before delivery unlike COVID.
MAYBE,it's just me. I feel kile a lot of people are spinning their wheels in general and not focusing more specifically where they need to be looking.
There are other ways to diagnose this disease.
An x-ray will show it, as will a CAT scan.
The medical world is digitized now- IMO they need to expand their testing to at least one more departments within healthcare.
Laboratory and radiological.
All moo

They definitely need to start thinking outside the box. It seems like a total of waste of test to require all women in L&D to take a test that they can't get results back in time to be of any use. :/

 

[gngr~snap]

It seems (maybe) what’s really hard for those that think they are “young and less at risk” to understand is the idea that wearing a mask is to protect others more than it is about to protect themselves from catching the virus.

I was trying to think of what else we do in everyday lives to protect others, and one thing I thought of was that we leash our dogs while out in public. Sometimes those who don’t leash their dog say, “Oh, my dog is harmless; he never bites.” Yet, we’ve all heard cases where it’s happened. Under a certain condition, any dog can bite.

Just as a dog owner should always leash their dog while out for the safety of others (as well as their own dog), people wearing a mask in public are protecting others (as well as ourselves).

Seems such a simple thing we can do, but apparently it’s more complicated. MOO

*We wear pants.
*We wear seat belts.
*We wear helmets.
*We don't drink and drive.
*Or text and drive.
We don't smoke indoors in public places.
We don't smoke outdoors in some places.
*We can't smoke in our car with a child in it.
*We are required to give pets rabies vaccines.
* we can be arrested or fined if we refuse to do the starred items.
It's a health care crisis.
Why are we allowed to choose?
Because this is America?
People wore masks in America in 1918.
We weren't born required to still wear them in 1934, 1964, 2004...
I can't understand why it's been allowed to continue like it has.
For the greater safety of others, there are things we have been made to do.
Science was able to prove that it was safer. If not for anyone else, the long term effects in CHILDREN.
We really don't what that might even be!!!
Moo

 

[gngr~snap]

Per CNN, Dr. Fauci will not be at today's performance.

Symbol strke!
Cha!
Moo

 

[10ofRods]

World's new cases on July 17: ~250,000
World's new cases two days ago ~200,000
Yesterday and today ~240,000 (today isn't finished, just guessing)

We are unlikely to see any effects from new mask measures in the US until next week. And there are hotspots all around the world (Australia, Ireland, France are the ones I've been watching).

So right now, it's about every 4 days that we'd get a new global million. However I think we're going to plateau around 250,000 a day or even 300,000 a day for the next week. We may hit 250,000 new cases today. We have issues with many places topping out their testing ability and big backlogs of tests (both inside and outside the US).

(With some nations still to turn in numbers, we're at about 240,000 new cases globally today).

I believe we really have about 1 million new cases globally today, conservatively speaking. And the numbers for the US are affected by backlogs (major) in testing, in many states. So the US is probably closer to 100,000 new cases per day (and the people who study serology and sewage etc say it's higher than that).

It will still take a very long time to reach herd immunity, with 1000 deaths per day until then? Unless people radically change their behavior.

 

[beatrixpotter]

Yeah, they still are saying that the true numbers are much higher.
Not under reporting per sé, but unidentified.
And more temporary units are starting to pop up here and there.
Freaking Shipping Containers!!! Joined together for more COVID beds.

View attachment 256594 View attachment 256593
Moo

https://www.facebook.com/video.php?v=1532426020297977

That's brutal. That's not far from me at all. I'm glad to know someone has a plan for how to handle the excess patients. Of course suppressing the case load would be the ideal vs needing to stick people in shipping containers because we failed to manage that.

 

[24Roses]

Iowa news today: As of 10:00 a.m. today, we had 374 new confirmed cases for a total of 39,793 confirmed cases of which 28,607 have recovered. 10 more have passed away for a total of 808. July 22: Iowa’s COVID-19 death toll passes 800 – KWWL IDPH had the same case totals as of 11:00 a.m. today. Iowa COVID-19 Information
COVID-19 outbreak at Tyson plant impacted hundreds more than state reported
Polk County buildings closed to public due to coronavirus concerns
COVID-19 tests available for UNI students, faculty and staff – KWWL
Limits on testing in Iowa county experiencing coronavirus outbreak are limited to one county

 

[SouthAussie]

Only time will tell what the economic ramifications are for localized virus eradication strategies, such as those underway in Australia and New Zealand. The situations in Victoria and NSW show the fragility of such strategies - is it sustainable to respond to every case with such overwhelming force?

Something that is rarely factored to these responses to the virus is the human element. Places, like NY, with strict lock downs appear to be more susceptible to mass lapses in judgement - we've all seen the stories of large street gatherings. Arizona had a relatively low impact lock down, and has responded to sources of large gatherings. The State has found a balance, in my opinion, where there are enough places for people to feel a sense of normality, that there isn't this pent up demand to go out and do something really reckless. It hasn't eradicated the virus, but numbers are coming down, across the board.

Hopefully medical science will soon deliver us a fourth option.

Yes, I think (and hope) that it is sustainable. Oz and NZ do not have populations like in the US.

The principle being "take care of the pennies and the pounds will take care of themselves".

On TV News this morning, a medical officer is saying that while the cases in Victoria seem high (to us) they are actually quite stable numbers. That many of these positive test results are from people who were unknowingly infected a couple of weeks ago. That it will calm down with continued effort. Our extremely high level of testing right now is revealing every single case, infectious or not.

The important thing is to not allow people to travel around and spread the virus.
The real danger lies in when we open our international borders - and that may be a very long time away, if other countries can't get their act together.

 

[Tigerlily75]

Only time will tell what the economic ramifications are for localized virus eradication strategies, such as those underway in Australia and New Zealand. The situations in Victoria and NSW show the fragility of such strategies - is it sustainable to respond to every case with such overwhelming force?

Something that is rarely factored to these responses to the virus is the human element. Places, like NY, with strict lock downs appear to be more susceptible to mass lapses in judgement - we've all seen the stories of large street gatherings. Arizona had a relatively low impact lock down, and has responded to sources of large gatherings. The State has found a balance, in my opinion, where there are enough places for people to feel a sense of normality, that there isn't this pent up demand to go out and do something really reckless. It hasn't eradicated the virus, but numbers are coming down, across the board.

Hopefully medical science will soon deliver us a fourth option.

It will be interesting actually to compare Arizona and Victoria, Australia, as we go on, as we have similar populations. According to Google Victoria is 6.359 million and Arizona is 7.279 million.

We in Victoria (actually Melbourne metropolitan area + Mitchell Shire) are two weeks into a six week lockdown and on day 1 of a mask mandate. You can view our restrictions here: Department of Health and Human Services Victoria | Updated restrictions – 11.59pm Wednesday 22 July 2020

and daily updates Department of Health and Human Services Victoria | Coronavirus (COVID-19) daily update

It should be noted that not as much is “closed” as one might think. In both the first and second lockdowns retail and shopping centres (malls) are still open, hairdressers are currently still operating (but not beauty parlors), even the hand car washes are still open to my surprise (my car is desperate for a good clean but I’m not comfortable with someone inside my car (and I’m too lazy to do it myself lol)). Pubs and restaurants are closed (open for take away only), museums, cinemas, theatres, casino etc all closed, sport is shut down. School is remote learning except for VCE/VCAL (last two years of high school) and specialist schools for special needs students are open.

It doesn’t seem weather plays a factor so far, but of course we are in the middle of winter and Arizona in the middle of summer.

State borders are shut except for a few exemptions.