Coronavirus COVID-19 - Global Health Pandemic #90

[margarita25]

Who Is Most Likely to Die From COVID, According to CDC

Linked above:
COVID-19 Cases, Deaths, and Trends in the US | CDC COVID Data Tracker

 

[10ofRods]

What the heck went wrong in California? Why are their cases blowing out like this?

I wish I knew. Most schools were still not open. Many cases traced to food processing, grocery store warehouses and indoor loading areas, and, in my town, to Lowe's (a big box hardware store - it was mostly the managers who got it, as they were in their offices in the back of the store, little rooms, and clearly not wearing masks - just going on as if everything was normal; 4 cashiers also got it and 1 stockroom person; 22 people in total - and they spread it throughout their other social networks, mostly family and church).

We have plenty of "youth activities" outdoors, tons of people crammed into lines waiting for spaces at restaurants. We had just reopened indoor dining at 25% but I think restaurants were well above that limit in L.A and in surrounding counties.

Maybe it is the new variant (although early research on that seems to show it's just the older one).

Judging from my own neighborhood - it was Thanksgiving and now, there will be Christmas. People just do not get that they can feel fine and still transmit the virus...

We still have only 5% of the population infected. Long way to go. Vaccines rolled out only to nursing homes and hospital personnel so far...

 

[10ofRods]

Linked above:
COVID-19 Cases, Deaths, and Trends in the US | CDC COVID Data Tracker

Wow. Thank you for that. If I get COVID, looks like I have about a 20% chance of dying. Probably more like 17-18% since I'm female.

It's interesting that "whites" are more likely to die if they get COVID, compared to Hispanics.

 

[margarita25]

“WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Senator Mitt Romney on Friday urged the U.S. government to immediately enlist veterinarians, combat medics and others in a sweeping proposal to administer coronavirus vaccinations and slow the rising death toll.“

[...]

““That comprehensive vaccination plans have not been developed at the federal level and sent to the states as models is as incomprehensible as it is inexcusable,” Romney said in a statement.“

[...]

“Biden has vowed to use the Defense Production Act to boost the vaccination program and to send mobile vaccination units to help deliver shots in under-served areas.“

*more at link
Romney floats sweeping vaccine plan as U.S. nears 20 million COVID-19 cases

 

[SouthAussie]

“WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Senator Mitt Romney on Friday urged the U.S. government to immediately enlist veterinarians, combat medics and others in a sweeping proposal to administer coronavirus vaccinations and slow the rising death toll.“

[...]

““That comprehensive vaccination plans have not been developed at the federal level and sent to the states as models is as incomprehensible as it is inexcusable,” Romney said in a statement.“

[...]

“Biden has vowed to use the Defense Production Act to boost the vaccination program and to send mobile vaccination units to help deliver shots in under-served areas.“

*more at link
Romney floats sweeping vaccine plan as U.S. nears 20 million COVID-19 cases

Do you remember months ago when we were wondering who was going to administer all of the vaccines, in order to get the goals achieved?

We all hypothesised that it would be retired nurses, med students, armed services medics, maybe newly trained people (as well as any available current vaccinators). We presumed that a good national vaccination plan was being written to provide direction, that resources were being sourced.
Now it seems that none of this was thought about by the powers that be?

 

[acutename]

493/3460000

Interesting to compare other sites in the country, and their health department pages (SD is at https://www.sandiegocounty.gov/cont...Epidemiology/COVID-19_Daily_Status_Update.pdf) . Your dashboard has so much information compared to my county, and impressive contact tracing.

My county is at 0.069% cumulative rate of deaths

I get with your numbers (493/3,460,000) x 100 = 0.014% Am I doing the math wrong?

.....although the above link for San Diego County health department says deaths on last page are 1,534 which would be (1,534/3,460,000) x 100 = 0.044% cumulative rate vs. your calculation of 0.0009%.

@KALI, so sorry that your restaurant is so affected, and for such a long period.

I get .014% too.... did the math last night but did not want to but into this issue at the time.... and that is with the total population- not the infected population

 

[margarita25]

I’m noticing a discrepancy between the names of two variants, further research required:

See variant names in red:

New coronavirus variant appears to emerge in Nigeria, Africa CDC says
December 24, 2020

““The alert about the apparent new variant was based on two or three genetic sequences, he said, but that and South Africa's alert late last week were enough to prompt an emergency meeting of the Africa CDC this week.

The variant was found in two patient samples collected on Aug. 3 and Oct. 9 in Nigeria's Osun state, according to a working research paper seen by The Associated Press.

Unlike the variant seen in the U.K., "we haven't observed such rapid rise of the lineage in Nigeria and do not have evidence to indicate that the P681H variant is contributing to increased transmission of the virus in Nigeria. However, the relative difference in scale of genomic surveillance in Nigeria vs the U.K. may imply a reduced power to detect such changes," the paper says.”

—-

“And on Dec. 24, the head of the Africa Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, John Nkengasong, announced the discovery of yet another variant, this one in Nigeria, called B.1.207.“

Covid-19 News: 32 More Countries Have Found the More Contagious Virus Variant First Seen in Britain

Maybe it was just recently officially renamed, similar to how the UK “VUI-202012/01“ was named: “They did some file genetic analysis and identified this variant, “they’re calling it the “B-117 lineage which includes this mutation at the N501Y site”.“


(source notes)

- Ah, I see, perhaps one refers to the lineage, “B.1.207”, and the other one, P681H variant, refers to the mutation site.

 

[dixiegirl1035]

Yes, you are doing the math incorrectly for the statistic that you are looking for. The death rate is based on the number of people who became sick, not based on the entire population. So far, it appears that about 3% of people who contact covid have died. That statistic hasn't changed much since the covid rate was first calculated.

With your method of calculating the death rate, the numbers will constantly be rising. You won't know what the death rate is until the entire population has become infected.

With the information about the death rate that we know to be as accurate as we can make it right now, about one person out of every 30. or so. who get sick with covid, will die. God have mercy on us.

Coronavirus Update (Live): 84,137,048 Cases and 1,831,348 Deaths from COVID-19 Virus Pandemic - Worldometer

But I'm sure that others have chimed in on this too.

I perhaps used the wrong term. And I do understand, there is indeed a difference between death rate and case fatality rate. I really didn't use a term, was just doing math.

I wasn't shooting for the case fatality rate (for which the denominator needs to be the number of cases 3-4 weeks prior as the deaths are lagging)

 

[acutename]

Daily Mail Online has an article with the picture/name of the pharmacist that was booked on the same charges listed in previous articles. Can I link this article even though the police did not release his name previously or is this against the rules of the site?

It was in some WI newspapers last night- even without an official release, reporters checked local jails and found one with a pharmacist who was checked in at the time of the arrest.

 

[margarita25]

“Dr. Anthony S. Fauci, the nation’s top infectious disease expert, told CNN on Friday that the United States would not follow Britain’s lead in front-loading first vaccine injections, potentially delaying the administration of second doses.

Britain announced a plan this week to delay second shots of its two authorized vaccines, developed by Pfizer and AstraZeneca, in an attempt to dole out to more people the partial protection conferred by a single dose.

“I would not be in favor of that,” Dr. Fauci told CNN’s Elizabeth Cohen. “We’re going to keep doing what we’re doing.””

*more at link
Dr. Fauci advises against the British approach of delaying a second dose of vaccine.

 

[acutename]

Looks like the 30-59 year olds make up a lot of the cases. The primary working population. The people who are out and about 5 days a week.

these are also the "sandwich" people- likely responsible for children and possibly their own parents or other elderly relatives

 

[SouthAussie]

“Dr. Anthony S. Fauci, the nation’s top infectious disease expert, told CNN on Friday that the United States would not follow Britain’s lead in front-loading first vaccine injections, potentially delaying the administration of second doses.

Britain announced a plan this week to delay second shots of its two authorized vaccines, developed by Pfizer and AstraZeneca, in an attempt to dole out to more people the partial protection conferred by a single dose.

“I would not be in favor of that,” Dr. Fauci told CNN’s Elizabeth Cohen. “We’re going to keep doing what we’re doing.””

*more at link
Dr. Fauci advises against the British approach of delaying a second dose of vaccine.

If I had to guess, I would guess that Britain's strategy is to get as many people as possible to have some protection. Try and get their caseload to be somewhat manageable.

Now that they have approved the AstraZeneca/Oxford vaccine, they may switch to utilising that and have a much reduced population that needs a 2nd dose almost right away.

And maybe they are testing to see if they can mix and the 2nd dose can be their own AstraZeneca/Oxford vaccine.

AstraZeneca/Oxford seems so much more versatile. No extra-cold storage requirement. Is it one dose (with maybe an annual booster?)

 

[margarita25]

If I had to guess, I would guess that Britain's strategy is to get as many people as possible to have some protection. Try and get their caseload to be somewhat manageable.

Now that they have approved the one-dose AstraZeneca/Oxford vaccine, they may switch to utilising that and have a much reduced population that needs a 2nd dose almost right away.

And maybe they are testing to see if they can mix and the 2nd dose can be their own AstraZeneca/Oxford vaccine.

AstraZeneca/Oxford seems so much more versatile. No extra-cold storage requirement. One dose (maybe an annual booster?)

I am behind in this particular discussion, but wanted to note that Dr. Gottlieb, in the Face the Nation video you’re unable to see in Australia, said that young people will have a robust response to the first vaccine, but the elderly will especially need that second booster for it to be effective / source.

 

[dixiegirl1035]

Even if it means the people who were already vulnerable will still get very sick and possibly die?

I sure do hope that if the half dose idea takes hold that people realize they still must behave as if they can get COVID - because they can (it'll only be 45-50% effective at preventing COVID) and they will.

What's going to happen is that people will get one dose and then go about as if they are immune (as some people already are, in advance of their second scheduled dose). 1 RN is already positive (not dead) after a first dose, which means he can transmit it to his patients.

Hopefully healthcare workers will at least get it on schedule.

IMO, this scheme will result in thousands of people going back to "normal" behavior despite the fact that only about half of them, or less, have immunity to COVID (hopefully they will get a milder case).

The hard part about this decision, from my POV is that the entire system was designed so that people's immune systems were primed for a higher dose of the vaccine - and the timing of that second dose was supposed to be around the time that the first dose was providing its peak (but weak) immunity.

By waiting 12 weeks, that advantage may be lost, and so the larger dose may give people more reactions than expected. That was the whole point of the divided dose. Many people will end up getting their second dose at a point in time when the first dose's effectiveness is waning. The 95% effectiveness will never be reached in that population, as the "priming" process of the first dose will be gone.

In fact, people who wait months for the second dose may in fact need a third one, according to what I'm reading. Of course no one knows, as no one has studied or tested that.

It's so hard for me to believe that lay people are now rigging a non-scientifically analyzed solution, when the available data for best practice says otherwise.

TL;DR: waiting 3 months for a second dose may not improve immunity past 50-55%...so half the population will still be getting COVID and transmitting it, despite all the money put into the vaccines...

I've never read the two things that you mention of #1 Second dose larger with Moderna/Pfizer (Oxford did, by mistake in UK trials) and #2 That the first prime would be gone. If you come across such again, please share, thanks.

Sorry I started this due to Dr. Campbell's interview yesterday... but he's following it up again in a longer YouTube today re timing it more like Shingrex vaccines (where you get second dose 2-6 months after first one.)

Here is UK Press Release Statement from the UK Chief Medical Officers on the prioritisation of first doses of COVID-19 vaccines


This is today's youtube on same subject re: spacing out more for those that have 28 minutes to watch.

 

[margarita25]

So, behind here, did they tell the public they were going to delay on the second round after people already got the first round? I need to catch up on all this...

UK chief medical officers defend delay between Covid-19 vaccine doses - CNN

“London (CNN)The UK's chief medical officers have “defended a decision to delay second doses of the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine in order to prioritize first doses, saying it will protect as many vulnerable people as possible while the coronavirus is running rampant.

The new strategy, announced Wednesday by the head of the UK's medicines regulator MHRA, means that the interval between doses could be extended to up to 12 weeks, instead of the three weeks previously stipulated.
It has prompted a debate among experts, with the British Medical Association (BMA), a body representing UK doctors, criticizing the move to postpone appointments for the very vulnerable patients currently awaiting their second shots.“

—-

Hmmm.

eta: I wonder what Dr. Gottlieb has to say about this, considering he’s on the board.

 

[HongKongPhooey]

If I had to guess, I would guess that Britain's strategy is to get as many people as possible to have some protection. Try and get their caseload to be somewhat manageable.

Now that they have approved the AstraZeneca/Oxford vaccine, they may switch to utilising that and have a much reduced population that needs a 2nd dose almost right away.

And maybe they are testing to see if they can mix and the 2nd dose can be their own AstraZeneca/Oxford vaccine.

AstraZeneca/Oxford seems so much more versatile. No extra-cold storage requirement. Is it one dose (with maybe an annual booster?)

The theory is that it will hopefully relieve pressure on hospitals from what I've read on the bbc.

Covid: 'Nail-biting' weeks ahead for NHS, hospitals in England warn

Edited to add link re the NHS under strain.

 

[acutename]

If I had to guess, I would guess that Britain's strategy is to get as many people as possible to have some protection. Try and get their caseload to be somewhat manageable.

Now that they have approved the AstraZeneca/Oxford vaccine, they may switch to utilising that and have a much reduced population that needs a 2nd dose almost right away.

And maybe they are testing to see if they can mix and the 2nd dose can be their own AstraZeneca/Oxford vaccine.

AstraZeneca/Oxford seems so much more versatile. No extra-cold storage requirement. Is it one dose (with maybe an annual booster?)

the two dose requirement and ultra refrigeration is difficult- so vaccinating in hospitals and institutions allows this more easily- they have refrigeration equipment and employees and residents are present and trackable. Later, using the vaccines that do not require as much refrigeration and only require one dose- easier to administer those to the general population.

 

[SouthAussie]

So, behind here, did they tell the public they were going to delay on the second round after people already got the first round? I need to catch up on this...

UK chief medical officers defend delay between Covid-19 vaccine doses - CNN

—-

Eta: sounds like possibly yes?

“London (CNN)The UK's chief medical officers have “defended a decision to delay second doses of the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine in order to prioritize first doses, saying it will protect as many vulnerable people as possible while the coronavirus is running rampant.

The new strategy, announced Wednesday by the head of the UK's medicines regulator MHRA, means that the interval between doses could be extended to up to 12 weeks, instead of the three weeks previously stipulated.
It has prompted a debate among experts, with the British Medical Association (BMA), a body representing UK doctors, criticizing the move to postpone appointments for the very vulnerable patients currently awaiting their second shots.“

—-

Hmmm.

Tony Blair (ex Prime Minister) has been floating this idea for a little while.
Their former head of immunisation is in agreeance with him.
Presumably the regulator has given it the go-ahead, as they were consulting the regulator about this a little while ago.

Coronavirus: Vaccinate more people with one dose, urges Tony Blair
The UK is considering whether it can speed up COVID vaccination by giving everyone only one dose of the vaccine

 

[dixiegirl1035]

So, behind here, did they tell the public they were going to delay on the second round after people already got the first round? I need to catch up on all this...

UK chief medical officers defend delay between Covid-19 vaccine doses - CNN

“London (CNN)The UK's chief medical officers have “defended a decision to delay second doses of the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine in order to prioritize first doses, saying it will protect as many vulnerable people as possible while the coronavirus is running rampant.

The new strategy, announced Wednesday by the head of the UK's medicines regulator MHRA, means that the interval between doses could be extended to up to 12 weeks, instead of the three weeks previously stipulated.
It has prompted a debate among experts, with the British Medical Association (BMA), a body representing UK doctors, criticizing the move to postpone appointments for the very vulnerable patients currently awaiting their second shots.“

—-

Hmmm.

eta: I wonder what Dr. Gottlieb has to say about this, considering he’s on the board.

Here is UK Press Release Statement from the UK Chief Medical Officers on the prioritisation of first doses of COVID-19 vaccines

 

[dixiegirl1035]

the two dose requirement and ultra refrigeration is difficult- so vaccinating in hospitals and institutions allows this more easily- they have refrigeration equipment and employees and residents are present and trackable. Later, using the vaccines that do not require as much refrigeration and only require one dose- easier to administer those to the general population.

I forgot, which upcoming vaccine is just one dose? Moderna, Pfizer, Oxford/AZ are all two doses.