I realize everyone loves the notion that the girls tried to flee across the creek. But let me try to demonstrate why it is unlikely. In sports and specifically American football there is something called the backdoor cover. That is when the underdog seizes advantage late and scores to finish inside the pointspread. It is an oft discussed scenario.
However, it is quite another matter when you are actually depending on it to happen. All perspective is lost. My friends and I used to take advantage of sucker tourists all the time in that situation, in man to man wagers. For example, let's say a 30 point favorite in college football got ahead by 35 in the middle of the 4th quarter. We'd hear the tourists chirping, "Here comes the backdoor cover. I guarantee it." This is when the big favorite has pulled all of its starters and is playing with reserves, while the heavy underdog is still using its top players.
It is incredible how often those sucker tourists would lose sight of big picture reality. We would wager on the remainder of the game. They would actually take the 30 point underdog at Even points for the remainder of the game, counting on that backdoor cover. I felt so sorry for them time and again, even as I was taking their money. That 30 point favorite has such manpower advantage that they were favored to score the first touchdown, favored to score the second touchdown, and so forth. They are still favored to score the eighth touchdown and the ninth touchdown.
Only warped perspective considers the huge underdog now the brief favorite, due to situational variance. And in a roundabout way that's how I'm trying to describe Delphi as the girls approached the creek. We know they lost big at the top of the bridge. Otherwise they wouldn't be down the hill and heading toward Deer Creek. We know they lost their lives atop the opposite bank within minutes. All of this makes perfect sense because once that bad guy pulled a weapon the girls became massive underdogs.
Yet somehow we want to pretend they suddenly seized advantage as they reached the creek. Meanwhile, nothing has logically changed. The killer hasn't dropped the weapon. He hasn't collapsed to the ground. He hasn't changed his mind. Only the fanciful notion of applying hero mode wants to make the girls the favorite for those next 15 or 20 seconds, or whatever.
It simply is not a good way to think. You are wagering on the big underdog, for no reason whatsoever. Kidding yourself due to flimsy subjectivity. And if law enforcement had sufficient training in probability they would fully understand this type of thing. They'd have experts describing it to them before they ever reached junior level, let alone anything beyond that. Jolt, jolt and more jolt. Flush out the group embrace of 2% scenarios.
I'll be blunt again. We need more women out there in these roles. Delphi suffers partially because males are occupying all the top spots. Law enforcement everywhere is hindered by gender distribution. I've done this long enough to recognize that females have greater grasp of probability than men, largely because they aren't as stubbornly dense and don't fall in love with preposterous scenarios merely because they align with every bias.
I don't disagree that we need more females in LE, but could you please provide a link that "females have a greater grasp of probabilities than men, largely because they aren't as stubbornly dense and don't fall in love with preposterous scenarios merely because they align with every bias"? Are there ANY statistics or probability studies or psychological/scientific studies that back this up? Or is it just your intuition? Actually, it sounds more like a virtue-signaling smear to me, but it could also be just good old fashioned bias (jmo).
Let ME be blunt. You can't equate the girl's actions on the top of the hill, or at the gravel path, or at the creek, to the strategies of football teams and wagering on football games, i.e. "we know they lost big at the top of the bridge"... but they could have "seized the advantage as they reached the creek". I'm sorry, but the fanciful notion of "hero mode" would not have allowed the girls in this case to somehow have made themselves the "favorite to win".
So, please spare us the condescending sports analogies suggesting that LE across the nation (and private sleuthers as well) would solve tons more crimes if they only knew what some Vegas gear heads back in the 80's knew about betting on NFL games. And that somehow if the victims of those crimes and LE had only known what you guys knew about the intricacies of probabilities, statistics, sports wagering, Las Vegas, underdogs, situational variances, blind covers, and/or participating on the game show Jeopardy, either the victims would not have ended up victims, or their cases would've been otherwise quickly solved.
I'm sure you're better at handicapping sports games than I am. And probability matters - it comes into play in all aspects of life (with me, mostly in the stock market). But (I'll be blunt again): I don't think it's fair to insinuate that Delphi and ISP LE would have solved this case by now if only they'd had your knowledge of probability and statistics. I think it is in fact demeaning to those who seek justice for Abby and Libby to say so. Jmo
And of course you know what they say about statistics anyway: "there are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics".
There's no doubt that statistics and probabilities are useful in criminal profiling. But I suspect that even profiling is about to face some obstacles in today's world, as "profiling" is just one step away from "stereotyping", and "stereotyping" is just one step away from "prejudice", and prejudice is just one step away from "discrimination", and "discrimination" is... well, I think you know where I'm going with this.
If a detective is not careful, statistics and probabilities and profiling can leave him stuck in a box (a group embracing one of your 2 percent scenarios, I suppose) . Wearing blinders. Sometimes detectives need to think outside the box to in order to solve a crime (and keep from nailing the wrong guy!). Life (and solving crimes) is not a wager, it's not a parlay card. All JMO
