Russia Attacks Ukraine - 23 Feb 2022 #3

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Herat said:
This article from The Telegraph UK is behind a paywall, brings another spooky note to the evacuation of hundred's of thousands from Ukraine

Ukrainian refugees escape on train with the lights switched off to hide from Russian shelling

Headline:
Ukrainian refugees escape on train with the lights switched off to hide from Russian shelling

Mothers spoke of the chaos and confusion involved in train journeys lasting more than 30 hours carrying their young children, with little to eat and frequently plunged into darkness.

At one stage the train stopped for three hours in Kyiv, its carriages plunged into darkness to avoid attracting enemy fire.

Thank you to the moderators for allowing a few small quotes from the article.
I find The Telegraph UK worth paying for a month or two subscription to read their perspective.
Click to expand...

Reminds of my mother, father & older sister who went by train from Riga to Ventspils to escape the Soviet Army in 1944. They found a fishing boat in Sikrags and had a harrowing ride to the island of Faro near Gotland.... my sister died on the way... :(
 
Training that occurred yesterday:
Russia's Northern Fleet said in a statement that several of its nuclear submarines were involved in exercises designed to “train maneuvering in stormy conditions.” It said several warships tasked with protecting northwest Russia's Kola Peninsula, where several naval bases are located, would join the maneuvers.

In the Irkutsk region of eastern Siberia, units of the Strategic Missile Forces dispersed Yars intercontinental ballistic missile launchers in forests to practice secret deployment, the Defense Ministry said in a statement.

The military didn't say whether the drills were linked to Putin's order on Sunday to put the country's nuclear forces on high alert amid Russia's war in Ukraine. It also was unclear whether the exercises represented a change in the country's normal nuclear training activities or posture.
Russia holds drills with nuclear subs, land-based missiles

Weather conditions to begin to shift :(:
While light snow is already falling in parts of the country, heavier snow will move in on Thursday as an area of low pressure moves northward from the Black Sea and along the eastern Ukrainian border with Russia on Thursday and Friday. This will bring periods of the heaviest snow and worst conditions on Thursday and Friday, lasting into Saturday. Key cities impacted include Donetsk, Kharkiv and Luhansk.

Kharkiv and Donetsk could each see more than 8 inches (or 20 cm), falling mostly on Thursday/Friday in Donetsk and Friday/Saturday in Kharkiv.
Live updates: Russia invades Ukraine
 
Another ingenious idea from the very brave and resourceful Ukrainian people:

‘Hedgehog’ tank traps stand between Russian invaders and Lviv | News | The Times

This is behind a paywall for The Times of London

"Hedgehog tank traps stand between Russian invaders and Lviv"

%2Fmethode%2Ftimes%2Fprod%2Fweb%2Fbin%2Fe19b5320-9a31-11ec-8194-a993851c15ba.jpg


Tokarinsky, 35, who ran a successful business erecting mobile telephone towers across Ukraine, feared the city would become the next target for Russian forces advancing from Belarus.

Overnight he repurposed his production facilities to build “tank traps” and devices to shred the thick tyres of military vehicles. His efforts are being replicated across Lviv where, even as Ukrainians fleeing violence in other parts of the country arrive in droves, civilians are producing camouflage nets for the military and petrol bombs for insurgent attacks."

Just look at these young women working to fight off Putin. So inspiring.
 
Tiff23fr said:
Training that occurred yesterday:
Russia's Northern Fleet said in a statement that several of its nuclear submarines were involved in exercises designed to “train maneuvering in stormy conditions.” It said several warships tasked with protecting northwest Russia's Kola Peninsula, where several naval bases are located, would join the maneuvers.

In the Irkutsk region of eastern Siberia, units of the Strategic Missile Forces dispersed Yars intercontinental ballistic missile launchers in forests to practice secret deployment, the Defense Ministry said in a statement.

The military didn't say whether the drills were linked to Putin's order on Sunday to put the country's nuclear forces on high alert amid Russia's war in Ukraine. It also was unclear whether the exercises represented a change in the country's normal nuclear training activities or posture.
Russia holds drills with nuclear subs, land-based missiles

Weather conditions to begin to shift :(:
While light snow is already falling in parts of the country, heavier snow will move in on Thursday as an area of low pressure moves northward from the Black Sea and along the eastern Ukrainian border with Russia on Thursday and Friday. This will bring periods of the heaviest snow and worst conditions on Thursday and Friday, lasting into Saturday. Key cities impacted include Donetsk, Kharkiv and Luhansk.

Kharkiv and Donetsk could each see more than 8 inches (or 20 cm), falling mostly on Thursday/Friday in Donetsk and Friday/Saturday in Kharkiv.
Live updates: Russia invades Ukraine
Click to expand...

I can only hope the thick snow covers the red marks that have been painted on Ukrainian buildings by Putin's despicable forces as targets for destruction
 
Oh Oh....Breaking......(no joke) Italy has a pasta crises....Wheat shortage combined with strikes by transporters because of the high fuel prices.
 
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Herat said:
Another ingenious idea from the very brave and resourceful Ukrainian people:

‘Hedgehog’ tank traps stand between Russian invaders and Lviv | News | The Times

This is behind a paywall for The Times of London

"Hedgehog tank traps stand between Russian invaders and Lviv"

%2Fmethode%2Ftimes%2Fprod%2Fweb%2Fbin%2Fe19b5320-9a31-11ec-8194-a993851c15ba.jpg


Tokarinsky, 35, who ran a successful business erecting mobile telephone towers across Ukraine, feared the city would become the next target for Russian forces advancing from Belarus.

Overnight he repurposed his production facilities to build “tank traps” and devices to shred the thick tyres of military vehicles. His efforts are being replicated across Lviv where, even as Ukrainians fleeing violence in other parts of the country arrive in droves, civilians are producing camouflage nets for the military and petrol bombs for insurgent attacks."

Just look at these young women working to fight off Putin. So inspiring.
Click to expand...

I keep on being amazed by the resilience and resistance of the Ukrainian people...IMO we could learn from them BIG time. <modsnip>
 
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Newspaper offices in Russia are getting raided and God knows what happening to those there, 15 year prison term has been mentioned by the Russian government for mis-speaking about the "special" whatever they're calling the WAR. And granted this is just one person's answer to "Stop the war" but really!?


"Several newspapers that belong to the publisher VK-Media (not to be confused with Vkontakte) have placed anti-war messages above the fold on their latest editions. "This madness must be stopped!"

"INSANE. The police have now RAIDED the publisher's offices and are seizing all copies of these newspapers. Russia is a sad, crazy place today. Anti-war activism is effectively outlawed."

The above was retweeted by
Alec Luhn@ASLuhn
Scripps environmental journalism fellow interested in the far north. Former Russia correspondent for @guardian& @telegraph


And when activist Alexei Navalny speaks out...

https://mobile.twitter.com/ASLuhn/status/1498949733762715650
 
bbm
Bit of hope said:
I agree. Thanks all the mods an thread coordinators. Must be a hell of a job to keep everything (us) in line, although I think so far we keep it very well managed and civilized within our group.
Click to expand...
Agreed! I think everyone posting here so far has had the sense to see these threads are not the place for arguments. Very proud of everyone, 3 threads and I think most posts are still up. :):)
 
Niner said:
Reminds of my mother, father & older sister who went by train from Riga to Ventspils to escape the Soviet Army in 1944. They found a fishing boat in Sikrags and had a harrowing ride to the island of Faro near Gotland.... my sister died on the way... :(
Click to expand...

So sorry @Niner ....we all have our share of pain (not to downplay anything you told) Gives us a reality of the historical events that Putin want's to erase. Good you shared this. Big hugs.
 
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Tiff23fr said:
Training that occurred yesterday:
Russia's Northern Fleet said in a statement that several of its nuclear submarines were involved in exercises designed to “train maneuvering in stormy conditions.” It said several warships tasked with protecting northwest Russia's Kola Peninsula, where several naval bases are located, would join the maneuvers.

In the Irkutsk region of eastern Siberia, units of the Strategic Missile Forces dispersed Yars intercontinental ballistic missile launchers in forests to practice secret deployment, the Defense Ministry said in a statement.

The military didn't say whether the drills were linked to Putin's order on Sunday to put the country's nuclear forces on high alert amid Russia's war in Ukraine. It also was unclear whether the exercises represented a change in the country's normal nuclear training activities or posture.
Russia holds drills with nuclear subs, land-based missiles

Weather conditions to begin to shift :(:
While light snow is already falling in parts of the country, heavier snow will move in on Thursday as an area of low pressure moves northward from the Black Sea and along the eastern Ukrainian border with Russia on Thursday and Friday. This will bring periods of the heaviest snow and worst conditions on Thursday and Friday, lasting into Saturday. Key cities impacted include Donetsk, Kharkiv and Luhansk.

Kharkiv and Donetsk could each see more than 8 inches (or 20 cm), falling mostly on Thursday/Friday in Donetsk and Friday/Saturday in Kharkiv.
Live updates: Russia invades Ukraine
Click to expand...
Ok your post has me hyperventilating... just a little background on the YAR Intercontinental Ballistic missile.

"START Treaty prohibited increasing the number of warheads attributed to ICBMs, so Russia claimed the RS-24 [YARS] was a completely new ICBM to justify the designation SS-29 instead of SS-27 Mod 2, to circumvent treaty prohibition. The US National Air and Space Intelligence Center NASIC always believed that Yars was just a Topol M in violation of the START Treaty, something that is reflected in both the Mod 2 designation and the illustrations showing the SS-27 Mod 1 and Mod 2 to be identical.

It is essentially the same missile as the Mod 1 version Topol-M except the payload “bus” has been modified to carry multiple independently targetable warheads (MIRV). Each missile is thought to be able to carry up to 4 warheads, although there is uncertainty about what the maximum capacity is."

RS-24 Yars - Wikipedia

Oh yeah THESE are just what we want 18-19 year old conscripts OR reservists playing around with...in a forest....in a snowstorm...while a war is going on not far awayo_O

Can someone pleeeeeease give Mr. Putin a time-out...a BIG one...like maybe a perpetual one...he's fried his last brain cell...AJMO
 
tedtink said:
This one?
RA78830

Live Flight Tracker - Real-Time Flight Tracker Map | Flightradar24
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I think the kid that was tracking Musk’s flights is
Bit of hope said:
I'm listening to an episode on the radio about the invasion. Very interesting, because this man has the ability to overlook everything (military, politically, diplomatically etc.), has interesting insights and tells it in an understandable way. (Yes, I'm a fan)

Sadly I can't share the content...it's in Dutch.

It's a crucial week for the world. How far will Putin go in his drive to restore the Russian Empire? Can Ukraine and the West survive in all this war violence or is it getting out of hand? Today we talk about it with Jaap de Hoop Scheffer, Minister of State and former Secretary General of NATO.

I leave the link here for those who speak and/or understand Dutch. Rusland en Oekraïne | Jaap de Hoop Scheffer

I think you can hear it back on Spotify and Apple Podcasts
Click to expand...

this is weird. I went to the page, planning to just cut and paste into Google Translate. When I clicked on some English articles on the R hand corner, his article turned into English. I returned back, planning to read it in English, but now it is back in Dutch. But I bet there is the way to get to English version, because I saw it.
 
Niner said:
Reminds of my mother, father & older sister who went by train from Riga to Ventspils to escape the Soviet Army in 1944. They found a fishing boat in Sikrags and had a harrowing ride to the island of Faro near Gotland.... my sister died on the way... :(
Click to expand...
My God niner how tragic for your family, I'm so very sorry. I wish they all could have made it to safety and freedom. </3
 
tedtink said:
This one?
RA78830

Live Flight Tracker - Real-Time Flight Tracker Map | Flightradar24
Click to expand...

I think the kid that was tracking Musk’s flights is
Bit of hope said:
I'm listening to an episode on the radio about the invasion. Very interesting, because this man has the ability to overlook everything (military, politically, diplomatically etc.), has interesting insights and tells it in an understandable way. (Yes, I'm a fan)

Sadly I can't share the content...it's in Dutch.

It's a crucial week for the world. How far will Putin go in his drive to restore the Russian Empire? Can Ukraine and the West survive in all this war violence or is it getting out of hand? Today we talk about it with Jaap de Hoop Scheffer, Minister of State and former Secretary General of NATO.

I leave the link here for those who speak and/or understand Dutch. Rusland en Oekraïne | Jaap de Hoop Scheffer

I think you can hear it back on Spotify and Apple Podcasts
Click to expand...

this is weird. I went to the page, planning to just cut and paste into Google Translate. When I clicked on some English articles on the R hand corner, his article turned into English. I returned back, planning to read it in English, but now it is back in Dutch. But I bet there is the way to get to English version, because I saw it.
sunshineray said:
Ok your post has me hyperventilating... just a little background on the YAR Intercontinental Ballistic missile.

"START Treaty prohibited increasing the number of warheads attributed to ICBMs, so Russia claimed the RS-24 [YARS] was a completely new ICBM to justify the designation SS-29 instead of SS-27 Mod 2, to circumvent treaty prohibition. The US National Air and Space Intelligence Center NASIC always believed that Yars was just a Topol M in violation of the START Treaty, something that is reflected in both the Mod 2 designation and the illustrations showing the SS-27 Mod 1 and Mod 2 to be identical.

It is essentially the same missile as the Mod 1 version Topol-M except the payload “bus” has been modified to carry multiple independently targetable warheads (MIRV). Each missile is thought to be able to carry up to 4 warheads, although there is uncertainty about what the maximum capacity is."

RS-24 Yars - Wikipedia

Oh yeah THESE are just what we want 18-19 year old conscripts OR reservists playing around with...in a forest....in a snowstorm...while a war is going on not far awayo_O

Can someone pleeeeeease give Mr. Putin a time-out...a BIG one...like maybe a perpetual one...he's fried his last brain cell...AJMO
Click to expand...

The problem of any nuclear conflict is the fallout. If Chernobyl polluted Europe, if Fukushima polluted the ocean, then, even if there is a “winner” in nuclear war, life as we know it becomes impossible. Anyone who hits the button understands the threat to the world. That the threat comes from Russia…its old leaders, Brezhnev et al were horrified of the war, having fought in WWII. That anyone can threaten it is unbelievable - the threat used to never ever come from Russia, we were horrified of the WWIII. This is an unprecedented threat.

As a pacifist who believes 90% of conflicts are avoidable, I am deeply upset and scared, too.
 
Charlot123 said:
I think the kid that was tracking Musk’s flights is


this is weird. I went to the page, planning to just cut and paste into Google Translate. When I clicked on some English articles on the R hand corner, his article turned into English. I returned back, planning to read it in English, but now it is back in Dutch. But I bet there is the way to get to English version, because I saw it.
Click to expand...

I'm not sure this is all of it...but a big part that I remember....and do not take the translation literally...the subtle differences are wipe away in translation.

FORMER NATO CHIEF DE HOOP SCHEFFER: I DO NOT FORESEE A WAR (the question was actually if he thought we were going to have a WWIII)

Today, 14:26Update: today, 15:11

Russian President Vladimir Putin is unpredictable as the leader of a large country with nuclear weapons. That says former NATO boss and Minister of State Jaap de Hoop Scheffer in BNR's Big Five. But, says the former secretary general, Putin also knows that using it means his own end. "I don't foresee a war." According to De Hoop Scheffer, NATO must quickly increase its military presence in the Baltic states.

De Hoop Scheffer calls the Russian invasion of Ukraine 'a turning point', Europe's own 9/11 moment after which everything will be different: from NATO's strategy to increased defense spending. The former NATO chief does not (yet) want to speak of a Third World War, but does point out that things will be completely different if 'Putin decides to put one toe on one square centimeter of NATO territory'.

"Then we have the next phase in the conflict, then NATO as a whole steps into action and then we talk about a completely different situation." According to De Hoop Scheffer, on a scale of 10 we are now at 7.5, in the event of an attack on NATO 'well over nine'.

full of revenge
Asked to what extent he thinks Putin still makes rational decisions, the minister of state says that rationality in Putin's head has given way to revisionism and rancor. He is petulant, resentful and full of vengeance, making him unpredictable as the leader of a large country with nuclear weapons. But he also knows that using it will mean the end.' De Hoop Scheffer therefore does not think that Putin is turning his nuclear threat with nuclear weapons into actual action.

This does not alter the fact that Putin's isolation as leader De Hoop Scheffer is a cause for concern. He went from being an autocrat to a dictator. He withdraws into isolation with a couple of advisers nodding yes, and that is very risqué.' According to the former NATO boss, who speaks from experience, every leader is in a bubble and at the same time every leader should be well aware of it. "Every leader has to watch out for that."

No war
Yet De Hoop Scheffer does not foresee a war. NATO is not going to go to war with Russia over Ukraine. Putin knows that, which is why he is untruthful in his propaganda saying that NATO is threatening Russia. Incidentally, he says, Putin is more afraid of the European Union than of NATO. The Union stands for democracy, and that puts the ax to the roots of his regime. "Putin is afraid that Ukraine will become a kind of Poland."

Clumsy Von der Leyen (He did not say this)
Despite all the rhetoric from EU President Ursula von der Leyen, De Hoop Scheffer does not see EU membership for Ukraine happening any time soon. He says Ukraine is a corrupt country (he didn't say this like this at all, there is a lot that they can do better, diplomatic wording) that is far from ready for any accession. He therefore qualified von der Leyen's comments that Ukraine should become a member of the Union more quickly as clumsy (no, that wasn't the wording, it sound very different when you translate straight up...it's like this but in Dutch another meaning/translation). 'That is not what it is about, but the Member States. And it is needlessly an additional irritation for Putin. Don't push him any further into a corner. As an EU, be as proactive as you can be, but talking about membership now is unwise. I think von der Leyen knows that now too.'

NATO strengthening Baltic countries
According to de Hoop Scheffer, NATO must quickly strengthen its military presence in the Baltic Sea region. He points to the so-called Suwalki Passage, a 100-kilometre strip of Poland connecting the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad with its ally Belarus, thus forming the only land link between the Baltic states and the rest of NATO. "NATO must be there, if that Suwalki gap is closed, NATO will have a big problem and no more land access to Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania."

New NATO paradigm
If Ukraine is 'rolled up' by Russia, NATO will be bordering a Russian-controlled area. According to De Hoop Scheffer, this means that the entire NATO strategy must be rewritten, although different parameters apply: every European country is aware that defense spending must increase, there is a renewed European solidarity and previously neutral countries such as Finland and Sweden consider joining NATO. The Finnish parliament has voted in favor of membership by a majority.

More NATO, more Europe
'We now need more NATO and more Europe.' According to De Hoop Scheffer, the ultimate security does come from Washington, but this is a 'serious wake-up call'. Because now there is a Biden in the White House, but will there be a Trump there later? "When the wall fell, we sat down in a beach chair with a glass of white wine and we outsourced the defense to the Americans." According to De Hoop Scheffer, we thought, in line with the writer Fukuyama, that we had reached the 'end of history'. "But history is back and we have to rewrite it."

The Chinese twist
Quite unexpectedly, China has offered to mediate in the conflict. It is clear to De Hoop Scheffer: China is upset with this conflict. 'China has its fingers in the door. This was already apparent in the Security Council, where the Chinese did not veto the resolution tabled by the Americans, but abstained from voting. China has no ambition and no need to get into a conflict with the EU. China as a superpower sees this with sorrow, it is an absolute novelty to utter these words. It's too early for that, but it's special. It indicates that China is concerned.'

Taiwan
According to De Hoop Scheffer, China is 'looking very closely' at Biden and the US to see how the Americans will solve this. Because in the background is the Taiwan issue. That's why Joe Biden has sent a senior delegation of former military and political leaders from both the Bush and Obama administrations to Taiwan to meet with the Taiwanese president. That is a warning and a reassurance at the same time. The warning to China is unequivocal: despite a war in Europe, we remain active in the Pacific. So China does not get a license to invade Taiwan. It is also reassuring to Japan and South Korea.

De-escalation via back channels
Finally, De Hoop Scheffer hopes that, as with the Cuban crisis in 1962, there will be a so-called 'back channel' where the US and Russia communicate directly with each other. 'A means must be found along back channels to de-escalate. You have to have a line between people who have access to the presidents. The major risk in this type of conflict is miscommunication. There must be de-escalation.'
 
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