Australia Samantha Murphy, 51, last seen leaving her property to go for a run in the Canadian State Forest, Ballarat 100km NW of Melbourne, 4 Feb 2024 #8

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Interesting,if that media report is correct .
And I wonder how long they may have access to this dog(s)? Say, they have no hard and fast ideas on where to look next, what happens to the dog(s)? It's hard to image in a few days time, with new evidence, that they would request the use of the dog(s) again, when said dog(s) may be halfway back to their home base interstate, or on to the next case. How long can they reasonably request to have use of the dog(s)? So many questions.....
 
Maybe PS shared information with a particular friend?? off-road dirtbike riding friend?? JMO

Flushing out someone who hasn't supplied any relevant information to date but possibly has some useful information?? access to a property perhaps?? who isn't a accomplice - but knows particular places PS might frequent?? IMO
 
Maybe PS shared information with a particular friend?? off-road dirtbike riding friend?? JMO

Flushing out someone who hasn't supplied any relevant information to date but possibly has some useful information?? access to a property perhaps?? who isn't a accomplice - but knows particular places PS might frequent?? IMO
Can anyone elaborate more on how “flushing out” works in practice? I imagine I’m not the only one who doesn’t quite understand the logistics…
 
So PS is 22years old - has <modnote - been accused> against SM (could be planned or not)

Has been arrested - due to phone pings, vehicle capture in area, previous record flagged him, lives locally etc. - so back to not really a mastermind. JMO

Given this first mistake (phone data association to the Mt Clear area)- could be attributed to having to risk it - due to the opportunity that presented itself and he took the risk?? So I am going with opportunity arose over his skilful planning ability? Even if he may have been considering it in the past and had made mental notes. Opportunity happened and he acted.JMO

Can he have successfully hidden SM - knowing his ability level to date?? - I feel he must have made more mistakes surely?? MOO
 
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So PS is 22years old - has <modnote - been accused of a crime> against SM (could be planned or not)

Has been arrested - due to phone pings, vehicle capture in area, previous record flagged him, lives locally etc. - so back to not really a mastermind. JMO

Given this first mistake (phone data association to the Mt Clear area)- could be attributed to having to risk it - due to the opportunity that presented itself and he took the risk?? So I am going with opportunity arose over his skilful planning ability? Even if he may have been considering it in the past and had made mental notes. Opportunity happened and he acted.JMO

Can he have successfully hidden SM - knowing his ability level to date?? - I feel he must have made more mistakes surely?? MOO

Don't you think the police would have found her by now, if so many mistakes were made and it was just an opportunistic attack? It appears she has been concealed quite well thus far.
 
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Can anyone elaborate more on how “flushing out” works in practice? I imagine I’m not the only one who doesn’t quite understand the logistics…
Just thought that after seeing 2 Police dirt bike riders/motorbike riders used in the search area yesterday. I mean that might be nothing. JMO

Mentions using motorbikes.

I guess I am looking at the type of vehicles were used yesterday and why and in particular the dirt bikes/motor bikes. (2 bikes). IMO

Not sure if they used motor bikes before when looking at Mt Clear area - near Boak Road. JMO
 
Just thought that after seeing 2 Police dirt bike riders/motorbike riders used in the search area yesterday. I mean that might be nothing. JMO

Mentions using motorbikes.

I guess I am looking at the type of vehicles were used yesterday and why and in particular the dirt bikes/motor bikes. (2 bikes). IMO

Not sure if they used motor bikes before when looking at Mt Clear area - near Boak Road. JMO

This article states that there were about six officers on dirt bikes.

 
Don't you think the police would have found her by now, if so many mistakes were made and it was just an opportunistic attack? It appears she has been concealed quite well thus far.
I am trying to ascertain the probabilities - say compared to someone like Greg Lynn, if you are familiar with him?


Not trying to derail? sorry.

But PS is 22 years old and has made mistakes - to bring him under arrest so far. IMO

Just trying to work out the probabilities of whether he is such a mastermind to successfully conceal SM longterm. Obviously they haven't found SM - so he has been successful. I am just wondering why that is?

Did he act impulsively first - regardless of risk - CCTV, phone pings but after that he was a mastermind. Is that possible?? MOO
 
Just thought that after seeing 2 Police dirt bike riders/motorbike riders used in the search area yesterday. I mean that might be nothing. JMO

Mentions using motorbikes.

I guess I am looking at the type of vehicles were used yesterday and why and in particular the dirt bikes/motor bikes. (2 bikes). IMO

Not sure if they used motor bikes before when looking at Mt Clear area - near Boak Road. JMO
I have given it some thought and they probably just had them there as part of an on hand unit.

They would be able to access search spots easily if any injuries/conditions occurred amongst ground crew and offer first aid/assistance.

They could have even had them doing water runs.

I can see they are equipped with Kriega saddle bags enabling them to carry a bit of the essentials mentioned.

Perfect tool for the job.

20240321_105624.jpgoffroad3.jpg

 
I am trying to ascertain the probabilities - say compared to someone like Greg Lynn, if you are familiar with him?


Not trying to derail? sorry.

But PS is 22 years old and has made mistakes - to bring him under arrest so far. IMO

Just trying to work out the probabilities of whether he is such a mastermind to successfully conceal SM longterm. Obviously they haven't found SM - so he has been successful. I am just wondering why that is?

Did he act impulsively first - regardless of risk - CCTV, phone pings but after that he was a mastermind. Is that possible?? MOO
Perhaps you are right about the impulsivity first - hard thinking later. Without knowing the 'mistake/s' that ultimately lead to his arrest, it'd hard to determine the level of thought/planning that has gone into things. If it was planned - it seems outlandishly brazen, being relatively close to populated areas, in broad daylight. Which would indeed line up with the potential of an impulsive attack initially.
 
Interesting the police keep repeating essentially the same kind of message over and over…. “I would again like to reiterate ... if any member of the public has any little bit of information they think that may have something to do with this, to ring Crimestoppers, because we need all of the information we can get….”

Perhaps this what you are getting at Nightrider when referring to “flushing out”? Continuing the pressure and “staged” or unstaged “searches” (coz how do we know what actual purpose(S) any specific “operational” matters have?)…

And just waiting for that final piece of intelligence or evidence that Police need to make charges watertight????

Is this what others are thinking?
 
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Seems that they are going to use the Tech doggies today

RSBM

Chief Commissioner Patton said today's search would be in a different area to yesterday's search and would be on a smaller scale.

It sounds, to me, that the accused may have driven to a few different places that day. Divided the evidence among several locations, perhaps. Or went to one location, decided it wasn't a good choice, and went to another location(s).

imo
 
It sounds, to me, that the accused may have driven to a few different places that day. Divided the evidence among several locations, perhaps. Or went to one location, decided it wasn't a good choice, and went to another location(s).

imo
I agree SA, PS could also have gone anywhere in the following days & weeks, before he was being covertly watched in the last 2 weeks prior to him being charged.
 
I believe the motorbikes make it easier to penetrate the scrub. The day myself and stranger searched the area off recreation road we saw 2 different riders pop out of the scrub. I spoke to one guy and he was a local to the park and said he had made some of the trails and was good and looking for lost tech while riding. As he was also wearing leathers and helmet etc he was best placed to push through the bush and not get scratched. He and others have extensively combed the area off Boak road. Lots of areas I have searched have evidence of motor cycles in use for pleasure. He was the one that told me that police were evident in other areas. I felt better knowing local experts were searching these areas. Also saw another guy standing on his bike giving him a better view. It does screw up a crime scene I suppose. Also helps with snake avoidance for the searcher being on a bike.
 
Yes, I wondered about the possibility of this search having been staged when it was called off at 3.30ish.

My "maybe"theory is that the search was conducted at that location for all intents and purposes, but in fact, while trail bikes were roaring, helicopters "thwapping", sniffer dogs barking, there may have been some very specific searching undertaken at a different location a little further away.

IMO with the noise and action happening at the stated search site, other "assets" would have been unlikely to attract attention at an alternative location, if it were a small presence, and public access was restricted ("Standard procedure when helicopters in the area/emergency access" etc etc if any questions asked.)

With this theory, the issue of resources would arise, so I don't believe that the whole thing could have been a staged exercise. However, that location may have been a "base" of sorts for some specialists at another location, with a thorough search there still being quite justified, maybe even as a process of elimination if nothing else.

There would have to be an extremely good reason for such a scenarIo to be approved. IMO it would have to be for the purposes of creating a red herring which could cause an accomplice to the alleged perpetrator, (maybe someone who assisted PS after the fact) to take some action believing it would be safe to do so... ((I know this is all rather a stretch, but "stranger things etc...)
IMO other assets such as listening devices and digital trackers will be doing double time.

(It has occurred to me that Vicpol may also consider the use of an undercover officer. I'm not sure if this is something
which Vicpol does, but it was done successfully in South Australia over a decade ago, during the investigation of the murder of Glenys Hayward.

All MOO
 
its very possible several of his friends, even family, could have gone to police with information on likely locations, all his favourite places etc so these current searches could be based on partly that info and other intel?
 

Inside the Missing Person’s Squad: the unit with a record of giving grieving families closure​

It has been more than six weeks since Ballarat mum Samantha Murphy was last seen, but the unit tasked with finding her has an enviable success record when faced with some unenviable tasks.
 
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