2010.07.17 - President of NCM&EC could be a stranger abduction.

[BeanE]

OK changed the title a bit... I changed it to "could" be a stranger abduction. Which of course is always a possibility.....and I don't see Mr. Allen as saying it WAS a stranger abduction.

I don't think he's saying definitively that it was a stranger abduction either. I see him as saying that currently, they (NCMEC) has it falling into the stranger abduction category or classification.

I'm thinking they have to classify the type of each missing child case, and that they adjust that classification as more info is developed and given to them by LE. They would have to keep adjusting as time goes on and LE gets more evidence and info.

 

[wondering1]

But the NCMEC stats say those 115 are taken by someone the child doesn't know or is only of slight acquaintance. Terri certainly doesn't fall into that category, and I believe she would would fall into the family category.

I'm pondering what Kaine said about based on LE briefings he thinks someone else is involved. Maybe it's Terri and an unnamed somebody planned it, and the unnamed somebody is the one who actually took Kyron from the school. Which would account for why nobody saw Terri leave with Kyron. This theory is emerging as my #1, and this statement from Mr. Allen is facilitating that.

I wonder if they would still classify a case as a true abduction (part of the 115) if they knew or had good reason to believe that a family member was behind the plan, even if they didn't personally carry it out.

I also wonder how much the person speaking knows about the details of the investigation, or whether he was going by LE's classification of it and them not having id'd any family member as a suspect or poi.

If the answer to the first question is no, and the person speaking is fairly well-informed, I think his statement would be pretty significant.

 

[Emma Peel]

Ok, here is what I've been seeing for the last week which kinda fits what this guy may be saying....Kaine seems to be putting distance between himself and DY. He's still wearing his wedding ring...there's just several things. Maybe Kaine is not even so sure anymore it was Terri, and maybe LE are kinda refocusing also. Or maybe I'm over-thinking things. lol.

Desiree & Kaine were together for Kaine's move-in day, teh.

I was also thinking they were not often together this week, with her separate appearance with Tony and Kaine's separate appearances & e-mail replies to news stories...but they both were working on preparing Kyron's room for him yesterday, per video.

I think the subject article above is a sound bite attempt at balanced reporting.

Finally someone has suggested studying video to see if we can see if wedding band is a tatooed wedding band. LOL-ing @ myself b/c I never heard of such a thing, but if anyone's got good video capture skills ... might be interesting to see...

 

[cluciano63]

I don't think the source in this article is speaking from inside knowledge of this particular case, just from experience and from the fact that it is unsolved.

However I do not think that LE can truly say they are any closer to knowing what happened on June 4th; I think they still only know "where Kyron isn't."

 

[BeanE]

We also need to consider that we don't have a direct quote from Mr. Allen. We have the reporter retelling what Mr. Allen said, and as we know, there can subtle differences in wording, loss of context, etc.

Not deliberate on the reporter's part. It's just a human thing that happens. And we're just sticklers.

 

[cluciano63]

We are sticklers, but unfortunately most reporters of late are not.

 

[Emma Peel]

p.s. - on stranger abduction options:

thought a.) abducted by stranger or killed:
Terri's judgment might have been impaired to the point where she was keeping company (and thereby Kyron had met) with someone who was more of an acquaintance type of person with ulterior motives towards her children.

thought b.) abducted for another reason:
Terri's judgment might have been impaired to the point where she was keeping company with a sick someone who sought a horrible revenge after Terri broke off the relationship.

random thought c.) Desiree & Kaine are so calm and business-like. I don't know how they pull that off. It always makes me wonder what they know. Then it makes me wonder what they are hiding/redirecting. That, of course could be just me not understanding them.

JMHO in my p.s.-ing

 

[grandmaj]

Who has the exact quote when LE assured parents about sending their kids to school?

OK here is one.

It's not a search-and-rescue operation anymore," Gates said in a press conference.

He added that parents in the area need not take extra precautions with their children. Authorities have said since the earliest days of the investigation that they believe Kyron's disappearance was an isolated case.

"There is no reason to believe that the kids are in any danger here," Gates said.

http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-504083_162-20007724-504083.html

 

[BeanE]

Who has the exact quote when LE assured parents about sending their kids to school?

I've got this one:

"I can't say for certainty that it wasn't stranger to stranger. I can't," Gates said. "But I also can tell you that the need for the public to be alarmed is very low."

http://www.oregonlive.com/portland/index.ssf/2010/06/police_issue_questionnaire_ask.html

It sticks in my head because there is a need for the public to be alarmed to some extent, and because he said as of that date (June 21), they could not rule out stranger abduction.

 

[TrialAddict]

I didn't read his statement to mean he thinks, Kyron's case IS a stranger abduction. I read it as him saying many children are reported missing, but very few ARE stranger abductions.

 

[BeanE]

All these statements by LE in combination with the 'isolated case' statement may be able to be accounted for by a theory that Kyron was specifically targetted - not any other child, but Kyron specifically. If we then look at who and why Kyron would be targetted, we can easily get to someone Terri knows.

I'm liking this theory more and more.

Then if I look at the reasons for the 115 from NCMEC/DOJ:


115 children were the victims of “stereotypical” kidnapping. (These crimes involve someone the child does not know or someone of slight acquaintance, who
a- holds the child overnight,
b- transports the child 50 miles or more,
c- kills the child,
d- demands ransom, or
e- intends to keep the child permanently.)


to me, a temporary scenario with b and/or d rises to the top.

 

[cluciano63]

The problem I have is that LE has not said anything at all in recent weeks. I think they, meaning LE & family, (by their actions and words) have the public believing Terri is involved and therefore somewhat placated for now, but what it no arrest is made in the coming weeks?

 

[eyes4crime]

All these statements by LE in combination with the 'isolated case' statement may be able to be accounted for by a theory that Kyron was specifically targetted - not any other child, but Kyron specifically. If we then look at who and why Kyron would be targetted, we can easily get to someone Terri knows.

I'm liking this theory more and more.

Then if I look at the reasons for the 115 from NCMEC/DOJ:


115 children were the victims of “stereotypical” kidnapping. (These crimes involve someone the child does not know or someone of slight acquaintance, who
a- holds the child overnight,
b- transports the child 50 miles or more,
c- kills the child,
d- demands ransom, or
e- intends to keep the child permanently.)


to me, a temporary scenario with b and/or d rises to the top.

Since the beginning I've had this nagging thought that Terri was set-up and used for the information she knows about the school and about that day. Sound like that scenario would fit in with the above theory. Disclaimer: At this point I'm unable to assign guilt or innocence to Terry so all options remain open. :banghead: moo

 

[Kat010]

The problem I have is that LE has not said anything at all in recent weeks. I think they, meaning LE & family, (by their actions and words) have the public believing Terri is involved and therefore somewhat placated for now, but what it no arrest is made in the coming weeks?

Interestingly enough, the last public comment LE made was something that IMHO, distanced them from KH/DY statements:

"
MULTNOMAH COUNTY SHERIFF'S OFFICE HAS NO COMMENTS REGARDING THE JULY 8, 2010 YOUNG/HORMAN PRESS CONFERENCES
Posted: July 8th, 2010 6:48 PM
There will be no comment from the Multnomah County Sheriff's Office regarding the information reported during the Horman/Young July 8, 2010 press conferences. The information released in during these conferences did NOT come from the Multnomah County Sheriff's Office. This is an ongoing investigation.
There is no press conference scheduled.
The tip line is open, if there are tips or information related to the Kyron Horman missing person case please call the Multnomah County Sheriff's Office tip line at 503 261-2847. If someone believes they have had an actual sighting of Kyron Hormon call 911."

BBM

Here's the link:
http://www.mcso.us/public/newsroom.htm

 

[cluciano63]

Yes, I saw that statement, that came out right after D&K started talking about Terri being a liar, etc...
But once LE started with the flyer with Terri's photo, IMO, no matter what they were saying, that made people feel as though she is the focus of their investigation. And apparently they allowed Kaine to state in his application for the RO that LE believed that Terri is involved in Kyron's disappearance, unless Kaine can put that in there without their permission.

Sorry if OT.

 

[BeanE]

Yes, I saw that statement, that came out right after D&K started talking about Terri being a liar, etc...
But once LE started with the flyer with Terri's photo, IMO, no matter what they were saying, that made people feel as though she is the focus of their investigation. And apparently they allowed Kaine to state in his application for the RO that LE believed that Terri is involved in Kyron's disappearance, unless Kaine can put that in there without their permission.

Sorry if OT.

You can write whatever you want in an RO application. You write it, you sign it, you take the consequences for any false information you knowingly and intentionally write.

I believe what Kaine wrote, he wrote in a good faith belief, whether or not it is factual. It is what he truly believed.

 

[Barry]

IMO: As much as everything points to TH in this case, I can't shake the shades of Carl Probyn (Jaycee Dugard's step dad) that it has in it. He went through something very similiar, with a story that didn't make sense to most people, and it broke his marraige up. In fact, I don't recall ever hearing a public apology to him from anyone after she was found.

In my own mind, I can't shake the idea that there is a wild card in this case, likely a stranger (or someone unexpected). I don't even have a rational basis for it, other than the feeling you get from the 30,000 foot view of everything. My number one hope is that Kyron is somehow ok.

 

[winterrose]

Sometimes some of this makes me wonder "what if",what if Kaine and Terri are working with LE and everything's not as it seems?I don't know,some things just aren't adding up as being normal.Why were Tony and Desiree with Kaine yesterday helping him move in?I mean if they're wanting Terri to talk,they've said alot in the pressers and being there with him moving,seems like it would just tick Terri off more and provoke her.

 

[funknut]

Respectfully snipped.
I am reading his quote as Kyron falls into the category of either:-
a: Abducted and killed by a stranger
b: Held for ransom
c: Taken for another reason

Good observation. Let's look at this and make a reasonable conclusion. Many of you have dismissed the claim for some reason, but if you look at it objectively, how many feasible alternatives are there? The three options stated lay out the likely scenarios, ignoring little else. Let's set up a few more options of our own that don't fall into the three above categories:

d: Kyron was involved in an accident with a stragner and a cover-up
e: Kyron wandered off and disappeared
f: Kyron intentionally ran away

A, B, and C seem quite a bit more likely. Are LE even considering D, E, and F at this point?

 

[funknut]

Forgot to subscribe.