AZ - Isabel Mercedes Celis, 6, Tucson, 20 April 2012 - # 9

[Lava]

Obviously LE thinks that the media could lead to tips which could lead to finding Isabel. It must be frustrating for them to know that more attention (therefore more tips) could come if the family would talk to the media, but the family is prolonging that.

 

[liltexans]

I took that to mean that LE was telling the press that they could see for themselves about their emotions...as the media kept asking him about the parents' state of mind and he did not know how to answer that, since he said he did not know them personally...so media could judge, when they spoke to them...JMO

I agree. From watching yesterday's presser, this is my feeling. The Lt. seemed exasperated (I don't blame him) with all the questions about the family's emotional state.

 

[Theforeigner]

http://www.azfamily.com/news/Police-ask-Isabels-parents-to-go-public-149609185.html

LE wants family to talk to the media to keep the case out front and the tips coming in

Ok so the Celis family/parent feel "overwhelmed," and give that as an excuse for not going public?
Well!!! I belive this is a VERY VERY VERY good time to put aside that kind of self consideration/selfishness! and think about how Isabel is feeling !!!
Its almost a WEEK!!! since they went pubclic, and police have even asked them over and over to do it again and they ...??? well I´m just plain mad now grrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr.
I´v lost sympathy for this parents, sorry to say that, I normaly dont lose my head, but that is how I feel!

 

[marazul]

Regarding young children giving an accurate composite, yes it is possible.
The correct way is to first ask them all separately "did anything about him remind you of someone you know?" and get answers like, "well, he looked kinda like uncle Mike but he was thinner with darker hair", or "He was shorter than our daddy". Then you show them different noses, eyes, hairlines, etc, and they pick the best one that matches the perp, and if all 3 girls independently picked similar features, they go with that one. If there were huge discrepancies, such as one child saying it was a very dark skinned man and one saying it was a fair skinned man, or one says long blonde hair and the other says a dark haired crew cut, they will not do a composite or they will do composite that does not focus on these details. It is a scientific art, and can be very very accurate.

 

[gitana1]

IMO, I am not sure how the 3 young children were able to describe the age of this man as being in his 20's. Most children would go higher in age when describing an adult.

Three girls from Hawaii sexually assaulted in Arizona

The girls and their mother arrived from Hawaii several days ago to visit the girls' grandparents.
http://www.hawaiinewsnow.com/story/...rls-from-hawaii-sexually-assaulted-in-arizona

Based on mother with children visiting grandparents, it appears to me that there were at least 3 adults in this home.

Just odd that one of the children didn't scream out, out of fear.

To get little kids to describe age or height to LE, they use comparison techniques: "Is he older or younger than grandpa? Older or younger than your teen cousin? Pick someone out of these pictures who looks as old as the man who was there: " Then they show them pics of people whose ages they know. It's not too hard.

As far as why they wouldn't scream, over and over we have seen cases where a perp busts into a home and takes a child. Polly Klaas was in a whole room of little girls. No one made a peep. Elizabeth Smart and her sister were both there and awakened. Her sister did not move for hours. Jessica Lunsford also went quietly. And countless kids are molested by uncles, fathers, cousins, etc., in the night, in houses full of people.

It is exceedingly easy to keep little kids quiet: "Make a sound and your dead. Make a sound and your dog is dead. Make a sound and your baby sister is dead. Make a sound and I will kill mommy and daddy."

It's so odd that that little girls just arrived to visit their grandparents. It seems it would a perp local to the area or how would he know three little girls were inside the home?

I don't think this guy just enters random homes looking for children. He knows they are there.

I agree. I think they should be able to find this person. He must be close and he must have been watching.

And I agree with the profiler. Yes, it could be a pedophile excited by what happened to Isabel. But this is a very, very brazen crime. He entered a home and molested three kids while there. That matches the brazenness necessary to taking a child from her bedroom, into the night. The chances that these crimes are not linked are remote, IMO.

 

[gitana1]

Regarding young children giving an accurate composite, yes it is possible.
The correct way is to first ask them all separately "did anything about him remind you of someone you know?" and get answers like, "well, he looked kinda like uncle Mike but he was thinner with darker hair", or "He was shorter than our daddy". Then you show them different noses, eyes, hairlines, etc, and they pick the best one that matches the perp, and if all 3 girls independently picked similar features, they go with that one. If there were huge discrepancies, such as one child saying it was a very dark skinned man and one saying it was a fair skinned man, or one says long blonde hair and the other says a dark haired crew cut, they will not do a composite or they will do composite that does not focus on these details. It is a scientific art, and can be very very accurate.

We posted almost the same thing at the same time!!!

 

[~n/t~]

I am guessing LE is getting tired of fielding all the media requests...JMO

Are they obliged to give PC's everyday? Most only update the media when they have information or a break in the case.

Perhaps the parents will step up to the plate when LE stops giving the daily PC's??

 

[PAXIMUS]

This guy is young too they say, probably been molested himself, starting early as a perp, they need to get him now before he does something even more extreme assuming he hasnt and isnt related to the Isabel case.

That is a very nice area of Tucson too, the houses are very spread out, semi-rural area just outside of the city metro area, nice homes upper middle class living, an easy place to get away with something like this because you dont generally have neighbors close by, most of the properties are probably an acre or more with a lot of space between you and the next house, it doesnt fit that he would hit that area to just molest the kids and then hit a MUCH MORE crowded area where the Celis live to do an actual abduction though.

Still I have a gut feeling it is connected.

 

[cluciano63]

I kind of prefer hearing from LE, myself...not sure what hearing from Isabel's parents will achieve as far as trying to determine the state of the investigation. JMO

 

[PAXIMUS]

One good thing about them not talking to the media much is that when they finally decide to it will be big headline news and bring a lot of attention to the case again as opposed to them talking too much and people losing interest in them as well as the case.

 

[cluciano63]

You know, I hope LE IS lying about the video for some reason, as that might mean they actually have a suspect in mind, or a plan, or something...instead of the nothingness that I feel...JMO

 

[cluciano63]

Isabel is already not the top story on many local sites...she is one of the top stories but not the lead...
Maybe it will take a few days of her not being the major story for her parents to realize they need to be the driving force to make her so...
JMO

 

[marazul]

I feel bad suggesting this, but it did cross my mind.
After a local child murder, all of the parents here were having stranger danger talks with their kids. About a week after the crime, a neighborhood girl, age 9, started a bus stop story that a man had knocked on her door and said "are you home alone?" as soon as my kids told me that story, I called this little girl's parents, as did several other neighborhood parents, and it turns out the girl either "dreamed it" or made it up. I know how horrible it is to doubt childrens stories of abuse or molestation, and being 3 girls and not just one, I do not think it was made up as a reaction to the publicity of the Isabel case, but I sure hope there is tangible evidence of this crime at the scene.
It seems that the parent or grandparent of these girls, seeing the flyers everywhere and the news and the local drama of Isabel's case, would have told the girls to be extra alert, would have the alarm on..and the girls, knowing of Isabel's case, would have been in EXTRA fear during the event. I know if we were local and a man broke in, my kids would immediately think, "oh, no, its the bad man that took Isa!" and be LESS likely to keep quiet, because they would assume the goal is kidnapping. 10 is old enough to have that thought process.
Just sharing my thoughts, no judgements.

 

[PAXIMUS]

You know, I hope LE IS lying about the video for some reason, as that might mean they actually have a suspect in mind, or a plan, or something...instead of the nothingness that I feel...JMO

I believe and have heard that they have their eye on someone and they either cant locate this person or they dont have a solid enough case yet to make a move but that is just what I am hearing in the local grapevine.

 

[PAXIMUS]

I feel bad suggesting this, but it did cross my mind.
After a local child murder, all of the parents here were having stranger danger talks with their kids. About a week after the crime, a neighborhood girl, age 9, started a bus stop story that a man had knocked on her door and said "are you home alone?" as soon as my kids told me that story, I called this little girl's parents, as did several other neighborhood parents, and it turns out the girl either "dreamed it" or made it up. I know how horrible it is to doubt childrens stories of abuse or molestation, and being 3 girls and not just one, I do not think it was made up as a reaction to the publicity of the Isabel case, but I sure hope there is tangible evidence of this crime at the scene.
It seems that the parent or grandparent of these girls, seeing the flyers everywhere and the news and the local drama of Isabel's case, would have told the girls to be extra alert, would have the alarm on..and the girls, knowing of Isabel's case, would have been in EXTRA fear during the event. I know if we were local and a man broke in, my kids would immediately think, "oh, no, its the bad man that took Isa!" and be LESS likely to keep quiet, because they would assume the goal is kidnapping. 10 is old enough to have that thought process.
Just sharing my thoughts, no judgements.

That is certainly possible, although probably unlikely, nothing wrong with considering it though as it does happen. If you tell kids about monsters enough they will see monsters.

 

[MaryAnn]

Ok so the Celis family/parent feel "overwhelmed," and give that as an excuse for not going public?
Well!!! I belive this is a VERY VERY VERY good time to put aside that kind of self consideration/selfishness! and think about how Isabel is feeling !!!
Its almost a WEEK!!! since they went pubclic, and police have even asked them over and over to do it again and they ...??? well I´m just plain mad now grrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr.
I´v lost sympathy for this parents, sorry to say that, I normaly dont lose my head, but that is how I feel!

I feel the same way. I'm trying to put myself in their shoes (which I can't imagine) and even if I couldn't speak from the heartbreak I would still get on TV crying my eyes out to let everyone know how much I missed my Baby and needed her back. I'm fearful this beautiful little girl was sold to the sex trade business. Someone could have been stalking her without the families knowledge. They need to find her ASAP and her family needs to suck it up and get on TV like LE is saying. Up til now I've understood, but since she hasn't been found yet they need to step up to the plate!!

 

[gitana1]

This guy is young too they say, probably been molested himself, starting early as a perp, they need to get him now before he doesnt something even more extreme assuming he hasnt and isnt related to the Isabel case.

That is a very nice area of Tucson too, the houses are very spread out, semi-rural area just outside of the city metro area, nice homes upper middle class living, an easy place to get away with something like this because you dont generally have neighbors close by, most of the properties are probably an acre or more with a lot of space between you and the next house, it doesnt fit that he would hit that area to just molest the kids and then hit a MUCH MORE crowded area where the Celis live to do an actual abduction though.

Still I have a gut feeling it is connected.

BBM. I think it fits, because it is the reverse of what you stated here. I think if it's the same guy, he watched Isabel for a long time. He really "wanted" her. So, her abducted her under difficult circumstances.

But now the heat is on. So he chooses an area that is easier to move around in and break into homes in, without detection.

Whoever this guy is, he is very dangerous. He chose to break into a home in Tuscon, right now, when the whole town is freaked out and on alert because of Isabel. (BTW, who leaves their windows open at a time like this? Especially when there are young kids in the house?)

As to LE saying there is likely no connection, either they really, really feel Isabel's parents are involved, or they don't want a panicked public to become angry that they haven't caught a psycho running around terrorizing little girls, or they have some jerk in custody right now who they are interrogating like mad who they think molested the girls but could not have been the one who took Isa, because he was in jail at the time or something.

 

[Prof]

The address according to the media is around the 11100 Block E MTN GATE PL
What do you think about how they are reporting the crime on this map http://www.pimasheriff.org/prevention/crime-maps/
I don't know if there is a difference in terms for sex crimes in AZ, but they are not calling it molestation here.

 

[thefragile7393]

Regarding young children giving an accurate composite, yes it is possible.
The correct way is to first ask them all separately "did anything about him remind you of someone you know?" and get answers like, "well, he looked kinda like uncle Mike but he was thinner with darker hair", or "He was shorter than our daddy". Then you show them different noses, eyes, hairlines, etc, and they pick the best one that matches the perp, and if all 3 girls independently picked similar features, they go with that one. If there were huge discrepancies, such as one child saying it was a very dark skinned man and one saying it was a fair skinned man, or one says long blonde hair and the other says a dark haired crew cut, they will not do a composite or they will do composite that does not focus on these details. It is a scientific art, and can be very very accurate.

Considering the detail of Richard Davis's composite from Polly Klaas's friends I'd agree and say yes, descriptions from young ones can be quite accurate with details.

Sent from my SGH-T989 using Tapatalk 2

 

[marazul]

I believe and have heard that they have their eye on someone and they either cant locate this person or they dont have a solid enough case yet to make a move but that is just what I am hearing in the local grapevine.

I find this quite possible, because it would explain why the parents are not out there in the media, if they are being told by LE that they have a person of high interest and are tying up loose ends (warrants, surveillance, etc). The family might be basically holding their breath waiting for more and finding it pointless to make a national plea when they are being told the case is focused on one person.
My only issue is that if LE knows this, why are they still on top of the family to speak out? Maybe because they don't want to tip anyone off....