IA IA - Elizabeth Collins, 8, & Lyric Cook, 10, Evansdale, 13 July 2012 - #19

[otto]

I've tried to answer this twice and haven't been able to come up with something that can be posted to a public forum.

I finally realised that what I wanted to say is that Lori Arnold is worse than the vast majority of murderers. Most murderers only kill one person. Arnold killed whole families and communities.

If there is any silver lining to this horrifying plague, it is that most Iowans now realise that substance abuse is something that can happen in any family and in any community. The substance abuse problems that MCM and DM have had can happen in any family.

I saw an interview with her and the only thing that seemed to concern her was that she had to move to a different place and no longer associate with her former drug connections ... essentially, she was upset that she had to sever all ties and start a new life.

Thanks for the link. I had no idea how much damage she caused to so many communities.

 

[Sunlight]

I thought they targeted him because of his vehicle, thanks for clearing that up.

If they already knew that the bikes were "found" around 2:00 when they were watching surveillance footage, they may have had specific reasons for asking for that particular van (which could transport bikes) owner to come forward...in light of other statements they have made regarding people being unknowingly involved, that maybe that person had some sort of "information". He came forward, was interviewed, and LE said he was not a subject. Actually, he's the only one so far that I can see LE has said is not a subject. That is only my take on it. MOO

 

[ktgirl]

Thanks, I think. Not sure what you mean by the innocent comment, I'm just being logical. But I can always use the blessings.

May I ask why you believe they are in a vehicle submerged somewhere? I mean, besides the obvious reason being to hide evidence. But if he only takes them somewhere else to do his deed, then he could clean up any hair or other trace evidence later and stay pretty much under the radar. Or he could have been smart enough to not leave any trace evidence in the van to start with, by covering the cargo area with a tarp, then wrapping them up in the tarp to dispose of them. Tarps cost a whole lot less to replace than a van.

I do agree that it's likely he killed the girls the same day, but there are any number of things he could have done with their bodies and the sad thing is, they might not be found for years.

I agree that unfortunately that's likely as well. But I can't give up hope that the girls are alive somewhere- like Jaycee Duggard & Elizabeth Smart. Children who are abducted have a much better chance of being kept alive than adults who are taken.

Have there been any searches of the area and wooded areas around the town and next towns over by groups like TES or Klaas Kids? There needs to be!

 

[otto]

I still wonder why LE targeted the white an at Casey's . Were they sure a white van was involved?

No. Several links have been posted quoting Abben as saying that they do not have any information about a vehicle in connection with the missing girls. All references to a white van originated on social media.

 

[Sunlight]

No. Several links have been posted quoting Abben as saying that they do not have any information about a vehicle in connection with the missing girls. All references to a white van originated on social media.

I'm not sure what social media said, but here is at least one link to what probably happened.

http://www.bing.com/maps/default.aspx?q=evansdale+iowa&mkt=en&FORM=HDRSC4

MOO

 

[otto]

With the latest information about the girls being seen at Gilbert and Elmer between 12:30 and 1:00, at the entrance to the parking lot at Meyers Lake, it seems that the girls rode their bikes to the lake. Could someone have suggested that they could have a boat ride if they rode their bikes and met at the drainage pipe area? Could they have ridden their bikes there? Could they have parked their bikes, gone through the gate, set down the purse and waited? Could someone have then driven down Arbutus leading to Maiden Lane and met them ... coerced them into the treed area and poof?

If this happened, there is no need for a van or truck of any type. A car would work just fine.

 

[otto]

Okay ... sorry for dropping so many maps on the page, but I'm trying to think this through as I'm looking at the maps.

At this point, I'm becoming fairly convinced that the girls arrived at the lake by bike and that for some reason, they rode their bikes to the opposite side of the lake, where they parked the bikes, set down the purse and waited for someone. The repeated mention of a paddle boat makes me wonder if they talked with someone at some point ... someone that implied to the girls that they could have a ride if they met him at the gate. Regardless of which path they took to the drainage pipe, I'm fairly convinced that the perp used Arbutus/Maiden Lane to leave with the girls.

 

[GrainneDhu]

That said, the one thing I don't believe is that the girls are in a vehicle that was ditched somewhere. Anyone that is going to kill two little girls is going to be desperate to distance themselves from that crime. They are not going to leave the bodies in a vehicle that can presumably be traced back to them. If it was a borrowed vehicle, it would have already presumably been reported stolen, therefore, it stands to reason that the vehicle is owned either by the perp or by close family/friend of the perp. I find it highly unlikely that a perp that managed to get the girls, get them out of the area, stage the bikes, not leave a witness, and manage to keep themselves and any real sign of the girls hidden for this long would take the chance of blowing the whole thing by leaving bodies in a vehicle that could be traced back to him.

Just my two cents.

SBM & BBM

I agree with the part I bolded.

For those who aren't that familiar with vehicle identification, the license plates are the least of a perp's worries. Every vehicle comes with a unique Vehicle Identification Number (VIN). Every time the vehicle changes hands, the new owner's name is associated with the VIN.

The VIN is placed in several different places in a vehicle, including stamped into the engine block. Getting rid of all the VINs that are placed in a vehicle is not easy and requires access to some pretty fancy tools.

It would be much, much less risky to do what Tom Tomich did: place the bodies in 55 gallon drums, fill them with concrete and then sink them into a body of water. Tomich's mistake was to put them in a body of water that was small enough to dry up in a drought year.

It just isn't practical (or even possible) to drag every river and body of water in Iowa. What would be possible, though, is to work with the local SAR groups to coordinate water training days in various places, starting in the Waterloo/Cedar Falls area and working outward from there.

 

[SapphireSteel]

Thanks, I think. Not sure what you mean by the innocent comment, I'm just being logical. But I can always use the blessings.

May I ask why you believe they are in a vehicle submerged somewhere? I mean, besides the obvious reason being to hide evidence. But if he only takes them somewhere else to do his deed, then he could clean up any hair or other trace evidence later and stay pretty much under the radar. Or he could have been smart enough to not leave any trace evidence in the van to start with, by covering the cargo area with a tarp, then wrapping them up in the tarp to dispose of them. Tarps cost a whole lot less to replace than a van.

I do agree that it's likely he killed the girls the same day, but there are any number of things he could have done with their bodies and the sad thing is, they might not be found for years.

The submerged vehicle thing is entirely a guess based on next to nothing except the general pattern and planning of this crime.

Again, motive is everything in this one.

I have never believed that your usual sexual perp is behind this one.

My thought processes are -

There is an (as yet unknown) non sexual motive for taking the girls. Who profits?

They were taken in a vehicle - most likely a van, most likely white.

The van is missing.

The girls are missing.

Find the van, you find the girls. In my humble opinion.

I doubt that the van is likely "borrowed", I suspect it was likely stolen from a car park somewhere, new plates/disguise added, then dumped afterward. I believe the perp involved is so organised that this vehicle could well have been stolen to order days or even weeks beforehand, for this purpose only. Stick some stolen plates on it...bingo....a "new" vehicle.

If it was dumped in a body of water afterward (most likely IMO) then chances are the girls bodies are dumped in the same body of water...perhaps even still in the back of the vehicle.

Again, all opinion.

ETA: stealing a vehicle eliminates all concerns over VINs as well.

 

[GrainneDhu]

Or the perp brandished a gun or knife. That would get two little girls into a vehicle with little screaming or fighting.

With a weapon, even the proverbial 98 pound weakling could get the girls into a vehicle. Or someone with physical disabilities, even someone who uses a wheelchair.

I bet very few people would suspect someone they know has to use a wheelchair. I've discovered in the last 7 years that people in wheelchairs are often just about invisible.

 

[GrainneDhu]

I agree that unfortunately that's likely as well. But I can't give up hope that the girls are alive somewhere- like Jaycee Duggard & Elizabeth Smart. Children who are abducted have a much better chance of being kept alive than adults who are taken.

Have there been any searches of the area and wooded areas around the town and next towns over by groups like TES or Klaas Kids? There needs to be!

In the first weekend, over 800 people showed up to search on Saturday and over 1000 people showed up to search on Sunday.

They searched 12 square miles around Evansdale.

Additionally, several SAR groups deployed, including groups that have water dogs and HRD dogs.

 

[Marnie]

@ otto, LOVING your maps!! Thank you so much for taking the time and effort to make them and post them. Also love that you are posting them in different perpectives.

At first I thought that the Elmer St sighting was just the girls wending their way onto Gilbert and heading towards ...doing their "regular" turn-around as per Mr. C.

Now you have me thinking that the girls probably met someone at the Elmer St. docking area previously. This person spoke with the very chatty Elizabeth and maybe went into his own tale of owning a paddle boat and pointed to one docked behind an Evans Road home. Perhaps he said to them, "next time you come to the lake, I'll give you a ride". He sat, waiting daily for the girls to come back and take him up on his offer.

Friday the 13th, they decide to give it a shot. They show up and he's sitting there, tells them to meet him over on the jetty. They bike past Mr. C @ Gilbert and Lake Ave (keeping with the timeline) and head to the jetty. Meantime, perp parks his car back into Maiden and Artubus, walks around and tells the girls, "I didn't mean for you to meet me here, I meant for you to meet me at the paddleboat and I would ride you back OVER to the jetty". The girls get up and walk with him cutting through the woods thinking they are walking a back way to "his dock" and BAM..into a trunk/gone.

 

[SapphireSteel]

There is no doubt they have searched the hell out of Evansdale...also unfortunately no doubt that there are probably still properties they have yet to access or eliminate.

Sad as it is, some people will refuse LE access and force them to go to court for a search warrant...times this by ten people in the town and you've straight away got a legal backlog that could take weeks to sort out officially.

Hard to believe, but some people just don't care about these girls.

Others may have something to hide...with meth being so widespread in Iowa, the chances are quite high that LE have run into this sort of resistance from the local criminal community.

 

[foxbluff]

My thought is that it has taken LE from July 17th until September 14th to basically verify RC's reported sighting. I think they are now working on what the other witness reported. I believe it is highly likely the girls left their bikes on the trail to walk back up to the skate park to meet a cute boy... if only to say hi or see if they could get the boys to notice them. If they had their bikes GMA could have recognized them. GMA could have specifically been looking for the girls riding their bikes. If she did not see the bikes she passed by. I don't think she would have turned south off of Gilbert onto Frans, Lake, Evans/Arbitus. She most likely, if traveling east, she would have turned left onto Grand Blvd. She did not think the girls would go to the lake, but she might have thought they would have gone to the skate park even though they were not supposed to ride that far. Maybe LE is getting ready to release information of where exactly the bikes were spotted (if it was the girls' bikes) and where they were eventually found.

BBM
Thanks, Boots, that's an interesting theory I haven't seen yet...and you could very well be right. I think you're saying they were abducted from the skate park?

Playing devil's advocate here: Wouldn't Elizabeth most likely have taken her purse with her? And what about the FBI bloodhounds...wouldn't they have made a beeline for the skate park? Of course, for all I know maybe they did.

 

[dotr]

Sorry if previously posted.
http://www.amw.com/fugitives/case.cfm?id=80648
Ariz Authorities Hunt Accused Child Molestor
Authorities in Arizona say Eric George McNeill has been molesting kids since the 1970s, and that more victims are likely. Cops think he fled to Washington State after the most recent charges came to light in September, 2011. McNeill is accused of sexual assault, kidnapping and molesting children ages 4 to 17.

Sex: Male Race: White Current Age: 64 Height: 5'0" Weight: 255 lbs. Hair (Color, Description, Facial Hair): Brown
Eyes: Blue
Traits and Habits: Frequents bars, casinos, flea markets, and swap meets
Hangs out with bikers
Skilled handyman; cash-only jobs
Last Seen: Washington

 

[SapphireSteel]

08-27-2012, 01:20 PM
SapphireSteel

Trying to walk a fine line here with TOS but here goes -

First of all you can totally disregard all paddleboats, puppies, fishing boys, horses, campers, Craigs Listers, online boyfriends, empty houses, second hand sightings.

The witnesses we know about are not involved apart from being honest citizens.

I believe the girls arrived home that day, shortly after 12, as expected. I believe they went back out again on a "mission" of some sort.

I believe they COULD have been to the lake earlier on this mission, were not successful, and had to go back a second time, and quickly!

I believe they were captured either right at or very near the lake. By a white van.

I believe TG saw the bikes when he said he did, (maybe about 12.23) and Mr C saw the girls at about 12.18 but has been told to be vague.

I believe they were then intercepted by someone they knew with a story, such as, gramma has taken ill, drop your bikes, quick lets get to the hospital.

I believe the girls may well have been still in the wooded area when Mr G biked past.

I believe there was an older male perp and a younger male perp.

I believe that IF the bikes were staged, it was done by the younger perp under instructions, who then left on foot therefore was not noticed.

IF they were staged, the younger perp went so far as to drag items of their clothing around the scene to confuse the scent, as he had been instructed.

I believe the girls were first taken to Elk Run Heights...perhaps a property, perhaps just a meet up with another perp/vehicle.

From there they were taken God knows where.

I believe the original plan was merely to hide them (motives I cannot discuss) but the main instigator has done a back flip and actually murdered them on the day...he had always planned it this way unbeknownst to his co-conspirators, some of whom had no clue this was part of his plan.

I believe the motive is not sexual but money, and/or another benefit, and I believe this part of the plan has worked out as hoped.

This was VERY well planned, and not random.

All my humble opinion and not intended to replace fact.

I could well do a 360 if other evidence comes to light but based on what we have, that is what I believe happened.

Above is my opinion posted back in August - like I said, it hasn't changed much...except perhaps to make me go "hmmm" at the bolded.

What if they WERE on a mission to the lake, and either got lost, or confused as to which end of the lake they were supposed to be at?

What if they got directions from somewhere, and went back a second time...this time, falling right into the perp's hands?

It would account for the sightings in both Lake and Arbutus, and Elmer.

:twocents:

 

[Marilynilpa]

I wonder if employees from nearby salvage or wrecking yards have been interviewed. Someone with access to an auto compacting machine could dispose of any vehicle quickly, IMO. I have no idea what kind of records are kept at this type of business, but it might be possible to find out what types of vehicles were compacted on the day Lyric and Elizabeth disappeared.

Another idea is a junk yard. I've seen junkyards that cover acres of land, and I doubt one more vehicle parked among all of the others would be noticed. IMO

 

[Wishbone]

It appears that the girls have been abducted but the thought of some kind of bizarre accident (falling in an old well or something similar) keeps nagging at me. I guess it’s harder for me to envision them being kidnapped than the alternative. I thought by now we would have them back of at the least know what became of them. Will we ever know what happened to these two young girls?

 

[GrainneDhu]

I wonder if employees from nearby salvage or wrecking yards have been interviewed. Someone with access to an auto compacting machine could dispose of any vehicle quickly, IMO. I have no idea what kind of records are kept at this type of business, but it might be possible to find out what types of vehicles were compacted on the day Lyric and Elizabeth disappeared.

Another idea is a junk yard. I've seen junkyards that cover acres of land, and I doubt one more vehicle parked among all of the others would be noticed. IMO

When my minivan croaked, I took it to a salvage yard. I had to present the title and my driver's license. They compared the VIN stamped into the engine block and on the door with the title. I had to sign the title over to the salvage yard and they said the information goes into a computer hooked up to a statewide system.

Obviously, it wouldn't be easy for an outsider to get rid of a vehicle at a salvage yard without leaving a legal trail. But you're absolutely right: for an employee, what difference would one more vehicle make?

Plus, employees would know what part of the salvage yard was the least used or where there were similar vehicles. What better place to hide something than out in the open amongst a group of like objects?

 

[Marilynilpa]

When my minivan croaked, I took it to a salvage yard. I had to present the title and my driver's license. They compared the VIN stamped into the engine block and on the door with the title. I had to sign the title over to the salvage yard and they said the information goes into a computer hooked up to a statewide system.

Obviously, it wouldn't be easy for an outsider to get rid of a vehicle at a salvage yard without leaving a legal trail. But you're absolutely right: for an employee, what difference would one more vehicle make?

Plus, employees would know what part of the salvage yard was the least used or where there were similar vehicles. What better place to hide something than out in the open amongst a group of like objects?

Thanks for the info about the salvage yard. I figured there had to be some kind of procedure involving identification.

Yes, I think "hiding" a vehicle in plain sight amongst hundreds of others makes good sense. If this abduction was planned in advance - which I believe - scouting for a location to hide/lose the vehicle would have been part of the planning. JMO