PA PA - Ray Gricar, 59, Bellefonte, 15 April 2005 - #16

[skoogmagoo]

I feel this is significant. Like the book being left open to a specific page on replacing a DA, the computer search for frying a hard drive, etc, this may have been a "breadcrumb". I beginning to think RFG left breadcrumbs of which we know some, but have not discovered them all. Some may have been inadvertently destroyed or misplaced/filed during the investigation. Who would RFG have been leaving breadcrumbs for? Who would have been interested enough to "connect the dots"? If it had been for LE, I suspect he would have made it more obvious.

What things do we know that could be considered "breadcrumbs"?

It sounds like Ray wanted everyone to think he was going to

I feel this is significant. Like the book being left open to a specific page on replacing a DA, the computer search for frying a hard drive, etc, this may have been a "breadcrumb". I beginning to think RFG left breadcrumbs of which we know some, but have not discovered them all. Some may have been inadvertently destroyed or misplaced/filed during the investigation. Who would RFG have been leaving breadcrumbs for? Who would have been interested enough to "connect the dots"? If it had been for LE, I suspect he would have made it more obvious.

What things do we know that could be considered "breadcrumbs"?

Sounds like Ray wanted everyone to think he was going to Lewisburg, and that's where his car was found, I figure he went the exact opposite direction.

 

[J. J. in Phila]

There were other things that RFG could have done to leave "breadcrumbs" pointing to Lewisburg. He could have checked his voicemail. That would have required turning on his phone, which would have pinged off the towers in Lewisburg. He could have also indicated that Lewisburg would be his destination when he called PEF. He didn't tell her, **I'm going to spend the afternoon in Lewisburg.** He said that he was heading toward Lewisburg, i.e. northeast, on Route 192.

The call had LE initially looking at the relatively rural 192. There was also a cell phone dead zone after Rebersburg. LE initially thought that RFG might have had an accident and couldn't call out. He was known as an"adventurous driver," one who liked to fast. 192 is rural and there are deer. There could have been a collision with a dear or he could have swerved to miss one. He could have lost control and driven it off the road. Had there been a crash in a m0re populated area, somebody would have seen or heard it.

The call was made about a mile north of Centre Hall, and LE was focusing on the rural areas. Now, was that RFG's intent. Did he want LE to look along 192 while he left the Mini parked in Lewisburg. Possibly. We don't know.

There is strong evidence that RFG got to Lewisburg. Did he then go back into Centre County after getting another vehicle? Possibly.

 

[Trackergd]

So if in fact we are seeing breadcrumbs, are they vague enough to be overlooked by a hostile actor(s) but just enough for LE to follow, or for some other reason. Curious if that book had been left to fall open a number of time, would it have always fallen open to that section? Given we do not know, that seems to have a lower probability of being a breadcrumb. This is a huge game of "connect the dots" where we are missing some of the dots. I honestly think LE has at least a couple of them.

 

[J. J. in Phila]

So if in fact we are seeing breadcrumbs, are they vague enough to be overlooked by a hostile actor(s) but just enough for LE to follow, or for some other reason. Curious if that book had been left to fall open a number of time, would it have always fallen open to that section? Given we do not know, that seems to have a lower probability of being a breadcrumb. This is a huge game of "connect the dots" where we are missing some of the dots. I honestly think LE has at least a couple of them.

The book could indicate that someone had studied that page, but within the last 12-36 hours, after RFG disappeared. It also could indicate that someone had been looking at that section a lot. They basically could have broken the spine of the book (or weakened it).

The only way that RFG could have caused this was to early look at that section dozens of time or to have left the book opened, face down for a while, and then closed it and left it out the desk. His practice was to mark a page with a post it note.

 

[J. J. in Phila]

Snipped for emphasis, only.

So if in fact we are seeing breadcrumbs, are they vague enough to be overlooked by a hostile actor(s) but just enough for LE to follow, or for some other reason.

I'm curious about a "hostile actor," possibility.

If RFG was entering a situation where he though there could be a "hostile actor," there are many things he could have done. He could have left a note, physical or in his computer, about who he was meeting. He could have checked his voicemail in Lewisburg, as noted.

If this was an intentional effort to RFG's part to conceal his whereabouts, even briefly, he was concealing it from the people who would be trying to find him, at least initially.

Now, very clearly, that may not have been his intent.

 

[J. J. in Phila]

It sounds like Ray wanted everyone to think he was going to

Sounds like Ray wanted everyone to think he was going to Lewisburg, and that's where his car was found, I figure he went the exact opposite direction.

I wanted to follow up this with a possible scenario. This is speculation.

RFG was planning to walk away and enlisted a "helper" to help him. The "helper" would provide RFG with a car, either as a straw purchase or a straw rental; this is the "straw car." It was in the helper's name and RFG would later reimburse the helper. The helper was in Centre County.

RFG generated the map, sometime during the week of 4/11/05, prior to 4/15, in order to see how long it would take the helper to get to Lewisburg.

On 4/15/05, RFG drives to Lewisburg in the Mini. He makes the call from just north of Centre Hall, knowing that it will ping of the cell towers in the area. Then he turns off the phone. He arrives in Lewisburg around lunchtime, probably between 12:15 PM and 12:45 PM.

At some point, while in Lewisburg, he tosses the drive and later tosses the laptop.

Sometime during that day, the helper arrives in Lewisburg with the straw car. This could be anytime between 1:00 PM or 2:00 PM, or in the late afternoon.

If the former is correct, he drives the helper back to Centre County in the straw car and returns to Lewisburg. He parks it, and drives around in the Mini, making sure he is seen. He then drives the straw car back to Centre County, and stays overnight with the helper.

In the latter case, he meets the helper in Lewisburg, and drives the helper back to Centre County. He makes sure he is seen in Lewisburg prior to this.

On the morning of 4/16/05, RFG drives the straw car back to Lewisburg, and makes sure he is seen that morning. At some point on 4/16, he leaves, in the straw car. He can, if necessary, arrange to meet the helper out of state, perhaps weeks later, in order to dispose of the straw car.

This is consistent with the known evidence, meaning that there is no evidence to contradict it. It does not prove that this is what happened, but it does fit with the known evidence. It is plausible.

If this is the case, there would be a record of the helper either buying or renting the car. There may be a record of the helper disposing of the car, i.e. returning it, or selling it.

 

[Trackergd]

If this scenario is true, then the missing breadcrumb is the rental car records from Centre County and the surrounding area. Looking for a rental car that is consistent with what the staff member thought she saw RFG in.

 

[J. J. in Phila]

If this scenario is true, then the missing breadcrumb is the rental car records from Centre County and the surrounding area. Looking for a rental car that is consistent with what the staff member thought she saw RFG in.

Yes. Even if Fenton had seen the "metallic colored" car the day before, it could have the rental.

Based on what witness reports have been released, there was a big enough gap on 4/15 for RFG to have driven back from Lewisburg with the "straw car," drop the helper off, and return to Lewisburg by 4:00 PM, the earliest that McKnight's witness reported seeing RFG.

The helper would have to have these characteristics:

1. Someone trustworthy. He/she would not run off with the money for the car or not come through.

2. Someone loyal. He/she could not tell LE or be moved by the angst of the family.

3. Someone proximate. He/she would have to be close enough to be able to coordinate this with RFG. It couldn't be someone that would have to use long distance calls or e-mail to communicate with him; there would be a record. The map points strongly to someone in Centre County.

I would be looking at people close to RFG in this order:

A. Current/past S.O.'s

B. Close friends (and I would throw his lawyer into that mix).

C. Current and former staff members.

Some of the people on this list could be ruled out, because we know where they were on 4/15/05. I have referred to this group as the "inner circle."

 

[Trackergd]

I would add his lawyers staff members.

 

[skoogmagoo]

I wanted to follow up this with a possible scenario. This is speculation.

RFG was planning to walk away and enlisted a "helper" to help him. The "helper" would provide RFG with a car, either as a straw purchase or a straw rental; this is the "straw car." It was in the helper's name and RFG would later reimburse the helper. The helper was in Centre County.

RFG generated the map, sometime during the week of 4/11/05, prior to 4/15, in order to see how long it would take the helper to get to Lewisburg.

On 4/15/05, RFG drives to Lewisburg in the Mini. He makes the call from just north of Centre Hall, knowing that it will ping of the cell towers in the area. Then he turns off the phone. He arrives in Lewisburg around lunchtime, probably between 12:15 PM and 12:45 PM.

At some point, while in Lewisburg, he tosses the drive and later tosses the laptop.

Sometime during that day, the helper arrives in Lewisburg with the straw car. This could be anytime between 1:00 PM or 2:00 PM, or in the late afternoon.

If the former is correct, he drives the helper back to Centre County in the straw car and returns to Lewisburg. He parks it, and drives around in the Mini, making sure he is seen. He then drives the straw car back to Centre County, and stays overnight with the helper.

In the latter case, he meets the helper in Lewisburg, and drives the helper back to Centre County. He makes sure he is seen in Lewisburg prior to this.

On the morning of 4/16/05, RFG drives the straw car back to Lewisburg, and makes sure he is seen that morning. At some point on 4/16, he leaves, in the straw car. He can, if necessary, arrange to meet the helper out of state, perhaps weeks later, in order to dispose of the straw car.

This is consistent with the known evidence, meaning that there is no evidence to contradict it. It does not prove that this is what happened, but it does fit with the known evidence. It is plausible.

If this is the case, there would be a record of the helper either buying or renting the car. There may be a record of the helper disposing of the car, i.e. returning it, or selling it.

 

[J. J. in Phila]

I would add his lawyers staff members.

A bit below his attorney, whom he had known for 25 years, but yes. The exception would be if he had a relationship (romantic/friendship) with a specific staff member.

One thing about attorney's is that they have an ethical obligation for confidentiality, in some cases. If RFG "hired" an attorney to help him, even for a nominal fee, that lawyer could decline to disclose the information.

 

[skoogmagoo]

I just can't get on board with Ray having a helper. Especially a helper that has kept quiet for 14 years. Who would be that vested in hurting Ray's loved ones by keeping that kind of secret for so long? Especially when no crime was committed ? Even if Ray paid someone, that money would be long gone by now. In my experience, people just aren't that good at keeping other peoples secrets.

 

[J. J. in Phila]

I just can't get on board with Ray having a helper. Especially a helper that has kept quiet for 14 years. Who would be that vested in hurting Ray's loved ones by keeping that kind of secret for so long? Especially when no crime was committed ? Even if Ray paid someone, that money would be long gone by now. In my experience, people just aren't that good at keeping other peoples secrets.

Two of RFG's loved ones would have gotten a larger inheritance from his pension, if he "died" prior to collecting it. That would be a mitigating factor. As it happens, I'm pretty sure that neither of those two could have been the helper. One was not proximate; the other's activities on 4/15/05 were accounted for.

 

[skoogmagoo]

Two of RFG's loved ones would have gotten a larger inheritance from his pension, if he "died" prior to collecting it. That would be a mitigating factor. As it happens, I'm pretty sure that neither of those two could have been the helper. One was not proximate; the other's activities on 4/15/05 were accounted for.

Ray was only 60 years old, I don't believe his loved ones were interested in knocking him off for a slightly larger inheritance. No one has gained by Ray's disappearance or death.

 

[J. J. in Phila]

Ray was only 60 years old, I don't believe his loved ones were interested in knocking him off for a slightly larger inheritance. No one has gained by Ray's disappearance or death.

This has nothing to do with anyone "knocking" RFG off. It is that RFG realized his heirs would get more. They may have not even realized that they would gain.

 

[Lissalow]

Happy to be writing my first comment in a site that FINALLY offers the answers to all the questions that have haunted me...After reading everything I could get my hands on about Ray Gricar's disappearance since I first heard of it, your combined expertise and research is so appreciated. J.J, this last scenario is the first one to ever strike a chord for me. I would like to add a motive to it and hopefully get some feedback from the group. Here it goes........
RG receives an ultimatum from someone is his professional past--maybe a powerful player in the PA/PennState/Sandusky/Second Mile/Pedo/*advertiser censored* arena or a figure from another crime ring with ties to PA. The possibilities are endless for a man in his profession. RGs absence becomes the only solution to this group's survival due to the fact that RG knows too much or needs to be used as a scapegoat for a scandal almost ready to break or needs to be removed as DA prior to a quickly approaching case. Sometime prior to his car purchase in PF's name, RG is confronted by said powerful group and they offer him an ultimatum. Maybe they tell him that he has to go but if he goes willingly, his family will not be hurt. "Go"could mean they will have to kill him or it could mean he must leave the country. Either way, RG chooses to keep his family safe and therefore devises an exit plan that will not only provide for those he loves, but also leave them with as much of a message as possible without getting anyone else killed. He buys an unusual car in a flashy color with a personalized plate so he will be seen when and where he wants to be seen. He plans his exit for the date of 4/15/05 in perfect sync with the 20/20 Vision book (even including the precise detail of ash found in the car) and reenacts the recognizably similar "walk away" scenario of Chief Whiley. He stages his car so similar to his brother's that the nephews (who he fears may try the hardest to find him) will know deep down that like their father, he will not be returning. As 4/15/05 quickly approaches, he becomes anxious and melancholy about his planned departure. Others take notice. As the date approaches he does all that he can to make sure LG and PF are financially sound and not forced to fight for assets tied up in his name. He makes sure he is seen in Lewisburg and that his car is spotted as well so that there is no lengthy and agonizing search of local hospitals, wooded areas etc. This is a man who has experienced a lifetime of crime scenes and searches. Every LE reaction has already been planned for in his mind. They will look at his work computer searches and see his trip to Lewisburg. They will look for his laptop. After asking around and researching online, RG knows that a simple hard drive erasing software will not be enough to thwart a computer forensic team that will certainly be assigned to the laptop of vanished government official. However, expelling the hard drive and submerging it in a lake or river likely will. And after he waits until dark to throw it in the river, he and his "helper" ride off in nondescript metallic colored car for a "long trip" of one kind or another, hopefully no further than Slovenia!

 

[J. J. in Phila]

Welcome, Lissa.

That is possible.

The car before the Mini was Mitsubishi convertible, also red.

Another possible motive was that RFG was hiding money overseas. Both could be possible.

 

[skoogmagoo]

This has nothing to do with anyone "knocking" RFG off. It is that RFG realized his heirs would get more. They may have not even realized that they would gain.

In that case, he would have faked his death. Left a fake note, car parked in the middle of a bridge with the door open...

 

[Lissalow]

Thanks for replying! Sounds like my theory on the mini cooper choice may be a stretch, but your comment on hidden money leads me to another thought/question. I've read a good amount of the posts here but not all, so this may have been covered...RG's financials show no real capital gains for 2004 and 2005, but I believe it was correctly mentioned that money in a 401K would not need to be reported as income. A person is elligible for withdrawal of their 401K without penalty at the age of 59 and 1/2. If that person passes away prior to that age, their heir must wait until THEY are 59 and 1/2 to avoid the substantial early withdrawal penalty. RG was 59 and 1/2 on April 9, 2015. So if he did have a 401K, his heir could (as of 4/9/15) access the money immediately, which certainly seems like another well-planned piece of an exit strategy. Was any info was ever disclosed about RG's retirement plan?

 

[skoogmagoo]

Thanks for replying! Sounds like my theory on the mini cooper choice may be a stretch, but your comment on hidden money leads me to another thought/question. I've read a good amount of the posts here but not all, so this may have been covered...RG's financials show no real capital gains for 2004 and 2005, but I believe it was correctly mentioned that money in a 401K would not need to be reported as income. A person is elligible for withdrawal of their 401K without penalty at the age of 59 and 1/2. If that person passes away prior to that age, their heir must wait until THEY are 59 and 1/2 to avoid the substantial early withdrawal penalty. RG was 59 and 1/2 on April 9, 2015. So if he did have a 401K, his heir could (as of 4/9/15) access the money immediately, which certainly seems like another well-planned piece of an exit strategy. Was any info was ever disclosed about RG's retirement plan?

I believe he did not have a 401k or any stocks, or investments of any kind.