Found Deceased Spain - Esther Dingley, from UK, missing in the Pyrenees, November 2020 #2

[PeggyHenry]

I’ve gone and done duplicate post again ... sorry

 

[PeggyHenry]

BBM

Your thoughts are great here, Redhaus.
IMO, it's reasonable to assume this person who passed time with ED, as well as the fellow hiker with whom she travelled on Nov 19th have been interviewed by LE.

PeggyHenry reminded us upthread that Captain Bordinaro stated (Daily Mail Dec. 12.)
‘It does not seem probable that Esther suffered an accident, and it is not credible that she was eaten by a bear or that she has fallen into a lake,' he said.

‘We believe that her disappearance is either the result of a voluntary act, or as a result of someone else’s actions[...]."

IMO, we may never learn ED has been found safe if her disappearance is the result of a voluntary act.

If she met with foul play, it may take a long time before MSM can report that fact. If her body is found showing evidence of same, it's unlikely that information would be divulged to the public until a suspect can be named.

the bespectacled friend appears to be male (to me, anyway). It is possible he is the friend she mentions in the later post? The kind fellow hiker.
I can’t imagine that the police would not trace and talk to this person ( it would be extraordinary if they didn’t).
I do recognise that Esther may have had an accident in the mountains but for me it is the least likely. Not being an experienced hiker I acknowledge everyone’s comments regarding her skills / preparedness/ equipment etc but to me, looking at the big picture the probability of foul play seems greater.
An attractive woman, trusting and lovely, is alone hiking in a lonely environment, asking strangers for food. She is vulnerable to say the least. She keeps extending her trip for a few more days. She suddenly changes her original plan. This is not a weary physically weak woman ... if so she would have gone back down to the van. This is a woman enjoying herself and her environment. Look at that smile in the ‘last photo’ .. she is doing fine!
I’m very dubious about timelines using social media though.. anyone could use her phone.
If you try to be in esthers shoes.. she’s a young fit bambi. unleashed and enjoying meeting people. She can’t see bad in others so very trusting. She may be in a long relationship with Dan but she’s a young woman and it’s not unexpected if she enjoys attention from other people and is allowed to be uncoupled for a while. If I was in her position ( and I’m quite a bit older now) and had spent 6 years couped up with a boyfriend who had serious health issues, I would probably welcome time to be myself and thrive. Unless she’s a saint or a nun.

 

[Hexe]

I do recognise that Esther may have had an accident in the mountains but for me it is the least likely. Not being an experienced hiker I acknowledge everyone’s comments regarding her skills / preparedness/ equipment etc but to me, looking at the big picture the probability of foul play seems greater.

I don't think so. Well equipped, experienced people die in the mountains too. Experience or not, we are all humans prone to stupid mistakes and sometimes it takes only one stupid mistake made in the wild to end up in a lethally dangerous situation.

Sometimes it's just enough to be in a wrong place in a wrong time, like when you get in the way of a couple of stones, that fallen off of the cliff somewhere above you. And judging by the size of the rubble piles at the mountain feet, the rocks in the area where Esther hiked are quite fragile.

Routine can also be your enemy in the wild. You can't do things on auto pilot up in the mountains, you should be always aware of what's going on around you. And yet it happens to experienced hikers pretty often.

It doesn't take much during a hike to have an accident. One ice-glazed stone on the trail, one cloud rolling down the slope, wrapping everything in a thick veil of fog, a couple of bites not eaten before you hit the trail, one moment of distraction, one ignored signal from your fatigued body.

All in all I think the possibility of an accident is here much, much greater than the possibility of a human predator walking Pyrenees in the end of November, in the middle of the lockdown.

 

[PeggyHenry]

Yes she could have had an accident. If she did her body will hopefully be recovered in years to come ( sooner rather than later). But the problem is we can not say for certain that that is why she disappeared without trace. so I still think it’s important to explore other possibilities.
The conditions were good, weather ok... Dan appeared to think an accident wasn’t a likely explanation and he had searched the area on foot. If she’d had an accident, slipped etc wouldnt the search teams and dogs have likely found a trace .. a pole, anything ?
ETA. The webcams are great ... I hope the police have examined them in great detail. Again, it would be extremely odd if they hadn’t. Makes me want to go there !

 

[Tortoise]

I'm wondering if Esther deliberately left late in the day to use darkness as a cover not to be seen crossing into France in defiance of lockdown. For the same reason she may have decided not to register her overnight stay at the refuge. Previously she wasn't well prepared in terms of carrying a phone charger, because she used the charger provided by a previous hostel owner, and it seems likely that she hadn't been back to the van overnight on the 21st. So her phone battery may have simply died.

It therefore seems entirely possible that whatever happened to Esther could have been on the next leg of her journey, the following day, and with a dead phone. Dan said that if she'd had an accident it would have to be in a small area because that is the only place her phone could have been out of range of masts, but that doesn't entertain the possibility of an uncharged phone.

I'm not convinced that not finding a trace of Esther at the refuge is proof she wasn't there. Scents are notoriously difficult for search dogs to detect many hours after the person has departed the area. If there were working toilets at the refuge, or even just an underground sewage system, that again could hamper canine detection. I very much doubt that SAR/police have used the services of crime scene specialists with fingerprinting/DNA testing.

MOO

 

[Hexe]

It therefore seems entirely possible that whatever happened to Esther could have been on the next leg of her journey, the following day, and with a dead phone. Dan said that if she'd had an accident it would have to be in a small area because that is the only place her phone could have been out of range of masts, but that doesn't entertain the possibility of an uncharged phone.

I see another possibility here: she might damaged her phone during an initial fall and wander away in a daze, with broken phone.

I'm not convinced that not finding a trace of Esther at the refuge is proof she wasn't there. Scents are notoriously difficult for search dogs to detect many hours after the person has departed the area. If there were working toilets at the refuge, or even just an underground sewage system, that again could hamper canine detection. I very much doubt that SAR/police have used the services of crime scene specialists with fingerprinting/DNA testing.

No, there is no underground sewage system in there, AFAIK.

 

[patCee]

I'm wondering if Esther deliberately left late in the day to use darkness as a cover not to be seen crossing into France in defiance of lockdown. For the same reason she may have decided not to register her overnight stay at the refuge. Previously she wasn't well prepared in terms of carrying a phone charger, because she used the charger provided by a previous hostel owner, and it seems likely that she hadn't been back to the van overnight on the 21st. So her phone battery may have simply died.




MOO

This would certainly fit with the part of Captain Bordinaro's statement that she left voluntarily. He added to this the possibility of a criminal act. Quite an assertive statement to come from the police involved if a bit premature, unless they have more information.

 

[Hexe]

Yes she could have had an accident. If she did her body will hopefully be recovered in years to come ( sooner rather than later). But the problem is we can not say for certain that that is why she disappeared without trace. so I still think it’s important to explore other possibilities.

Absolutely. We shouldn't get the tunnel vision. Stilli think the accident is the most probable option.

The conditions were good, weather ok... Dan appeared to think an accident wasn’t a likely explanation and he had searched the area on foot. If she’d had an accident, slipped etc wouldnt the search teams and dogs have likely found a trace .. a pole, anything ?

Maybe yes, maybe not. Looking for such small items in the mountainsis like searching for a needle in a haystack. Looking for sark coloured pieces of equipment is basically a search for a hay coloured needle in a haystack. Extremely difficult task.

 

[Grouse]

Isnt it funny that whenever someone goes missing mysteriously, the little snippets of information can be blown out of context and proportion. If ED hadn’t have gone missing would any of the things she did seem out of the ordinary.

RSBM

Exactly, I couldn't agree more! In the absence of news the imagination often compensates.

 

[mrjitty]

I'm wondering if Esther deliberately left late in the day to use darkness as a cover not to be seen crossing into France in defiance of lockdown. For the same reason she may have decided not to register her overnight stay at the refuge. Previously she wasn't well prepared in terms of carrying a phone charger, because she used the charger provided by a previous hostel owner, and it seems likely that she hadn't been back to the van overnight on the 21st. So her phone battery may have simply died.

It therefore seems entirely possible that whatever happened to Esther could have been on the next leg of her journey, the following day, and with a dead phone. Dan said that if she'd had an accident it would have to be in a small area because that is the only place her phone could have been out of range of masts, but that doesn't entertain the possibility of an uncharged phone.

I tend to agree that the fact that she hasn't been found where expected means one or more assumptions are incorrect.

And those seemingly innocuous decisions she made can easily add up to misadventure which is hard for authorities to walk back in the middle of winter and a pandemic.

I suspect we will have to wait until spring.

 

[PeggyHenry]

That's a shame to have to close the thread. Maybe we could all try harder to be less judgmental.

 

[CoverMeCagney]

That's a shame to have to close the thread. Maybe we could all try harder to be less judgmental.

Don’t worry Peggy, I’m sure the mods will deal with it accordingly. But if they have to spend too much time mopping up a particular thread because some posters can’t contain themselves, they will just close it down until there is further evidence for discussion. Very frustrating for everyone.

 

[stmarysmead]

I have a neighbor who had a scare recently. It was the culmination of a lot of small errors and a bit of plain bad luck.

We often get black ice in our rural mountainous area. He often drives thru it, no problem.

Like many of us, we sometimes take the back roads rather than the main road, because it’s shorter. No problem usually.

He left the house on a short errand, no one else at home...didn’t leave a note or explanation. I’ve done that many times.

He forgot his phone. Let ye who have never done so, cast the first stone.

So in a very untraveled area, on black ice, no phone, with no one knowing he’d left the house...he swerved to avoid a bear, and ended unconscious and hurt in a thick off-the-road ravine.

Many frighted hours but he’s fine now.

It was a confluence of small things...just as we have been discussing in this case. None of these things alone might have caused the situation, if the others had not also added their part. The confluence of these things did not mean he did not love his wife, or impugn his reputation.

But for those who know him, they pretty much raised our awareness on what we need to do to lessen our chances of a similar situation.

The comments from those experienced in the sport and from those who know the area are not victim blaming. But despite the claims of Esther’s experience and fitness, might explain why this happened and might even point to clues as to where.

 

[stmarysmead]

As to an abduction, I’m sure Esther’s loved ones cling to this idea, because, after all this time, it’s the only scenario where she might still be alive and rescued.

But posters familiar with the mountain village culture, have stated that hitchhiking is common and seemingly considered safe. Unless we can find similar disappearances in the area, any abduction would be a one off...an anomaly. That would be very hard to sleuth. And, IMO, would make this disappearance almost impossible to solve.

 

[Cryptic]

Do you have any evidence to back this assertion up?? There may be questions over her attitude to risk, but her fitness?

A very valid question.

I have no strong evidence and the forum calls for gentleness regarding victims. As a result, some of the following points are said in the general sense:

- Exceptional fitness at the amateur level and higher is tied to constant nutrition and rest cycles*. Esther may well of been mal nourished and running a long term calorie deficit for several reasons. Likewise, Esther's meaningful rest and recovery cycles may have been slipping due to living conditions.

- There is a difference between technical climbing at high altitudes and hiking in the mountains. Likewise there are differing entry levels of fitness required for each.

- In regards to hiking or and endeavor, one can be "Very experienced at doing things the wrong way". Having completed hikes may not always indicate that they were completed at a strong pace etc.

Over all, I think Esther's condition can be interpreted in two general ways:

A. The individual maintained her previous exceptional fitness levels via a well thought out vegan diet and meaningful rest cycles. Likewise, her hiking accomplishments and speeds reflect a continued high level of fitness. Or-

B. The individual's past fitness had slowly drawn down to where she was still overall capable by the standards of most people, but no longer exceptionally fit.

I think "B" is more likely.

* I have amateur athletes in my family and have seen that even a moderate number of missed or even rushed partial meals and skipped rest periods has a noticeable negative impact.

Sure, they can still out run and out sport average people easily. But, their usual exceptional level of fitness starts to decline fast. Esther may well have skipped more than a few meals.

 

[Recliner]

It's certainly true about the culmination of many small things leading to danger or disaster.

Some people may be aware of 'The Swiss Cheese model" in terms of risk management, used in Aviation safety but it applies in many arenas.
Worth a few minutes to read I think.
Swiss cheese model - Wikipedia

 

[v0x]

Please remember to post respectfully. Non-victim friendly posts & quotes have been removed.

 

[RickshawFan]

I'm wondering if Esther deliberately left late in the day to use darkness as a cover not to be seen crossing into France in defiance of lockdown. For the same reason she may have decided not to register her overnight stay at the refuge. Previously she wasn't well prepared in terms of carrying a phone charger, because she used the charger provided by a previous hostel owner, and it seems likely that she hadn't been back to the van overnight on the 21st. So her phone battery may have simply died.

It therefore seems entirely possible that whatever happened to Esther could have been on the next leg of her journey, the following day, and with a dead phone. Dan said that if she'd had an accident it would have to be in a small area because that is the only place her phone could have been out of range of masts, but that doesn't entertain the possibility of an uncharged phone.

I'm not convinced that not finding a trace of Esther at the refuge is proof she wasn't there. Scents are notoriously difficult for search dogs to detect many hours after the person has departed the area. If there were working toilets at the refuge, or even just an underground sewage system, that again could hamper canine detection. I very much doubt that SAR/police have used the services of crime scene specialists with fingerprinting/DNA testing.

MOO

As I'm reading your thread, a whole different scenario has occurred to me.

On the 21st, she summitted the Pic. It was the first leg of her loop into France, and she was going to spend the night at the Refuge. She does, in fact, make it to the Refuge.

On the 22nd, while at the Refuge, she thinks better of doing the loop.
---Maybe she got lonely, scared, whatever.
---Maybe she just got cold that night (I believe she would have.)
---And then there's reality (though emotions seem to have been a more deciding thing for her than logic; everyone's different.)....This is reality: After I did the math that she'd have had to bivouac, it would have been a very tall order to make her loop plan safely: a) because of the time of year; b)her incompatible experience & equipment (she was very much at her outer limits of these, and she was solo; c) she was leaving from the Spanish trailhead rather than from the Hospice in France.
---Perhaps she changed her mind about the loop because she was ambivalent about actually bivouac-ing, even though once before she had "gone beyond her comfort zone" and done it.

So, in lieu of doing the loop, she piddles around in the basin where the Refuge is, and just enjoys her surroundings. Remember, we're on the 22nd.

Then she heads UP towards the Port, with a view to leaving the trail and heading back to the Campervan.

She gets to the Port, and just because she really enjoyed it yesterday, thinks, "What the heck, might as well climb the Pic again." This would explain "late in the day."

Then, she takes the trail down from the Pic to the Port and back towards town.

********

Maybe she had an accident on the trail between the Port and Town? Not on the loop?

 

[RickshawFan]

If there were working toilets at the refuge, or even just an underground sewage system, that again could hamper canine detection.

Snipped for focus

Composting toilets or privies. No sewage runoff in the backcountry; no environmental damage; no frozen toilet bowls; no aroma; no fuss, no muss.

 

[RickshawFan]

- In regards to hiking or and endeavor, one can be "Very experienced at doing things the wrong way". Having completed hikes may not always indicate that they were completed at a strong pace etc.

Snipped for focus and BBM

IMO your whole post is brilliant and should be read closely by everyone.

I wanted to bold this section, because we come across this in so many missing hiker cases on WS. It will be useful elsewhere, but IMO should be particularly taken to heart in this case.

All "experience" is not the same. You can have done a whole lotta hikes, climbed a bunch of mountains, had all kinds of adventures, and not have any skill: you just got lucky that nothing happened. Alternatively, your "experience" could be a bad mismatch for the situation.

Example:
I've seen hikers who've done the ENTIRE Appalachian Trail and have developed ZERO wilderness skills. How? There's almost no real wilderness, shelter is provided, and there are people everywhere. You can go to town, every few days. Some folks stay in hotels or RVs every night.
Sure, they go themselves some muscle, but have they learned wilderness decisionmaking? Nope! Equipment skill? Nope! I once encountered a thru hiker who'd been out there for 1500 miles with his sleeping bag getting wet on a regular basis. Why? He didn't know how to put on his pack's raincover correctly: thinking it was some kind of breathing hole, he put the drainage hole at the top instead of the bottom, so he had water entering the top, and water accumulating like a gigantic puddle inside the rain cover. I am NOT kidding.

Having done the AT, there will be plenty of thru hikers who go to the West coast with the objective of thru-hiking the PCT. That's a trail that requires wilderness skills aplenty. There will be very marginal situations when you're alone. No shelters, rare hotels, rare towns, hungry, maybe a knee's gone wonky, unanticipated weather events, not many people on the trail. And they're completely out of their depth, unless they're able to master what's needed: most aren't, and go home.

So, yeah. "Experience" has to be relevant to be helpful.

Let me bold Cryptic's important point again:

In regards to hiking or and endeavor, one can be "Very experienced at doing things the wrong way". Having completed hikes may not always indicate that they were completed at a strong pace etc.