Found Deceased UK - Nicola Bulley Last Seen Walking Dog Near River - St Michaels on Wyre (Lancashire) #12

[Mr X]

This was my thoughts too. And that area is really quite shallow with a lot of rocks that someone would easily get caught on. I honestly think if she had gone in the river the dog would have entered the river, even just paws deep out of confusion. But yet the whole dog was bone dry.

It’s weird for sure.

It is common for dogs not to go in water if their pet humans are already in it. Also there is a deep hole on that particular bend in the river.

Dogs may play in water and do ball retrieval etc but if the person goes in IMO in a lot of cases the dog will not because of the psychology.

 

[UK Girl]

It is common for dogs not to go in water if their pet humans are already in it. Also there is a deep hole on that particular bend in the river.

Dogs may play in water and do ball retrieval etc but if the person goes in IMO in a lot of cases the dog will not because of the psychology.

I had a Springer and if i went in she would follow me for sure

 

[lvbut]

I had a Springer and if i went in and if i went in she would follow me for sure

My friend has a bulldog. He (pooch) wouldn’t do anything if she had trouble in the water. The dog would just stand there, gormless, watching. He’s adorable but absolutely not guard/rescue dog material.

 

[suzyjackson]

We’re all different, and that’s great. Personally, if police wanted to enter my home for a misper search, I’d be more than willing. I’d probably apologise for the untidiness though!

We are indeed all different, I can't imagine feeling that I needed to apologise to anyone for how tidy or otherwise my house is, they wouldn't be the 1950s housewife police

As we know from the Tia Sharpe case looking for a hidden body in a house isn't a 5 minute job, call me selfish but I wouldn't allow a proper search team to tear my house apart for no reason

Unless they are doing in properly what would be the point of a search. There was also the lady found behind the bath panel, apologies I cant remember her name, you can't just pop your head round the door of each room

 

[NextSprint]

Just to add a reference to my point about the Mercedes keyfobs, here is the 2019 GLC owner's manual:

It actually uses 433Mhz, which can transmit up to 180metres (~600feet). If they police used a scanner they could

https://www.mercedes-benz.co.uk/passengercars/owners-manuals/en-gb/pdf/mercedes-glc-suv-2019-april-edition-x253-mbux-owners-manual-01.pdf

This would be the range:

 

[UK Girl]

My friend has a bulldog. He (pooch) wouldn’t do anything if she had trouble in the water. The dog would just stand there, gormless, watching. He’s adorable but absolutely not guard/rescue dog material.

to be fair though Springers are normally water dogs My other dog would probably be the same as your friends

 

[Liverpool86]

It is common for dogs not to go in water if their pet humans are already in it. Also there is a deep hole on that particular bend in the river.

Dogs may play in water and do ball retrieval etc but if the person goes in IMO in a lot of cases the dog will not because of the psychology.

I get that tbf. I’m honestly just thinking of how my dog would respond. Spaniels are excellent swimmers though which is what strikes me as odd. They’re mostly excitable around water - obv not all of them.

How I wish dogs could talk

 

[Fishwick]

if the transmitter is always on, what's the life of the battery like ?

4+ years. We don’t even know if she has keyless entry though, and it’s sure to be dead after being in water two weeks.

 

[Mr X]

I had a Springer and if i went in she would follow me for sure

Presumably you were going in the water deliberately. I think, given that dogs are intelligent animals, the story could be completely different if you had fallen in by mistake and could not get out.

Also possible the dog was obedient and told to stay by the owner.

I used to swim with my whippet x in the Thames in summer and I was aware that if she got close to me she could accidentally hurt me quite badly with her front feet.

Possible IMO that the MP knew having a dog in water with her was not a good plan at the time.

 

[Bibitty]

Can someone enlighten me on the fixation on the 2 week and 11 mile figures? As NB has already been missing for over 2 weeks and hasn’t been found *anywhere*. I have possibly missed the importance of these numbers, if so - apologies!

My understanding is that bodies sink to the bottom when lungs fill with water and stay on the river bed - moved by current and flood. They then rise up and float on average only 2 weeks later when decomposition gases fill the corpse so they become buoyant and more importantly visible on the surface. I understand that in colder conditions decomposition is slower so surfacing may be later than 2 weeks.

11 miles is the length of the river to the sea. People are trying to determine if a body could travel along river bed and / or float to sea in this time period….lots of variables volume / velocity of water, obstacles, tides

 

[Davieson]

4+ years. We don’t even know if she has keyless entry though, and it’s sure to be dead after being in water two weeks.

Thanks. I did wonder how waterproof it might be.

 

[Lady Mallowan]

Has the PF sonar guy ever been in the water? Does he actually do diving activities himself? It seems to me he spends time in front of cameras or screens and remains remarkably dry.

IMO

He is a qualified commercial diver. A parachutist (Maroon Beret) in the military for six years. A registered expert with the National Crime Agency. Has pilot licences in UK & the USA. Has worked on ‘no body’ murder investigations including Peter Tobin (serial killer) & April Jones. He has trained police search advisers & the military. He has done presentations to US Secret Service, the US Military and the FBI and was a key adviser to the Home Office on policing Environmental protestors.

Just because the man is a self promoter of himself/his company doesn’t take away from the fact that he probably knows a great deal more than you or I on the subject. Unless your CV is more impressive than his, then I guess he is the expert and we are not! JMOO


About Us - Specialist Group International

 

[UK Girl]

Presumably you were going in the water deliberately. I think, given that dogs are intelligent animals, the story could be completely different if you had fallen in by mistake and could not get out.

Also possible the dog was obedient and told to stay by the owner.

I used to swim with my whippet x in the Thames in summer and I was aware that if she got close to me she could accidentally hurt me quite badly with her front feet.

Possible IMO that the MP knew having a dog in water with her was not a good plan at the time.

maybe but they are usually in the water before you can stop them

 

[Cluella DeVille]

I have an issue with some of his TV appearances and his commentary but he's an expert in his field.

I've welcomed his feedback and insight, at least he's tried to explain credibility and logic and I don't doubt the desperation of the press and media to tackle him anticipating the scoop and breaking news. If the family trust him and feel he can be of benefit then it has to be their decision. This case will risk losing momentum and become stale without action. People are being so proactive and supportive, they deserve recognition for all they are trying to do

 

[Liverpool86]

I just think if she’d have slipped or suddenly fell, that area being quite rocky and shallow, she wouldn’t have gone far from the edge… her dog surely would have ventured over to her due to a sudden movement, possibly to sniff and such. The absence of wet paws is very odd to me. Dogs respond quite dramatically when their owner does something dramatic. Especially spaniels who are quite eccentric and bouncy breeds.

I’m going with her not going in the river because of this. But open mind still.

The phone on the bench and harness and lead on the bank is even weirder. I think if she’d have fallen in the river, the dog would have watched her and followed for some time at least. Again, it’s rocky and shallow. Even if she had gone under, dogs have an incredible sense of smell, especially if she had been hurt, maybe cut or something. I think the dog would have followed down river.

This case got me baffled for sure.

 

[Mr X]

Thanks. I did wonder how waterproof it might be.

If she never entered the water, which is a lot of people's working assumption, waterproofing of the keyfob would not be relevant. IMO thats the point the other poster was making about the car key.

 

[Just-a-random-girl]

Thanks very much for this.

So we‘ve got: Thames, Humber, flood in Wales, and the sea - as one might expect.

The only comparable example is the Calder - but it is a faster river.

Like I said, it's a quick search of contemporary drownings and I did specify all rivers are different. If you are looking for a "comparable" one...Google and British Newspaper Archives will be your friends. There will be thousands of cases going back to the 1800s....

Information provided by me is specifically as a counter to PF's claims that drowning victims don't travel far (he was talking in general, not in the River Wyre or similar). I wasn't looking for comparable rivers, and not even really possible to compare any river as they all have unique aspects and will depend on where exactly people fall in, time of year, time of day, etc...

 

[Mr X]

I just think if she’d have slipped or suddenly fell, that area being quite rocky and shallow, she wouldn’t have gone far from the edge… her dog surely would have ventured over to her due to a sudden movement, possibly to sniff and such. The absence of wet paws is very odd to me. Dogs respond quite dramatically when their owner does something dramatic. Especially spaniels who are quite eccentric and bouncy breeds.

I’m going with her not going in the river because of this. But open mind still.

The phone on the bench and harness and lead on the bank is even weirder. I think if she’d have fallen in the river, the dog would have watched her and followed for some time at least. Again, it’s rocky and shallow. Even if she had gone under, dogs have an incredible sense of smell, especially if she had been hurt, maybe cut or something. I think the dog would have followed down river.

This case got me baffled for sure.

If the dog had been running around somewhere else it might not have seen the MP fall in.

IMO harness and phone left on bench. Dog running around somewhere. MP stands up and slips and ends up in the river. The dog returns. Someone else earlier said their dog sometimes brings the harness to them. Dog is confused as there no human there so the dog scents the area then picks up the harness and places it where it last got a scent of the human.

Adds up to me but IMO they need to do another search of the river.

 

[ayrshireguy]

I've welcomed his feedback and insight, at least he's tried to explain credibility and logic and I don't doubt the desperation of the press and media to tackle him anticipating the scoop and breaking news. If the family trust him and feel he can be of benefit then it has to be their decision. This case will risk losing momentum and become stale without action. People are being so proactive and supportive, they deserve recognition for all they are trying to do

Completely agree.

 

[cottonweaver]

Nope, Laura Torn. Owston Ferry.

Pub landlord gets life for murder

A killer who twice changed his court plea was jailed for life yesterday after admitting the murder of his estranged girlfriend.

www.theguardian.com

cheers

I'd missed PF's comments on that in the Telegraph, last week

The 2003 murder that experts are comparing to Nicola Bulley's disappearance

Peter Faulding, head of a team of divers searching the River Wyre, has likened the vanishing to the 2003 case of Laura Torn

www.telegraph.co.uk

Just looking at contemporary accounts now

Man charged after Laura's body is found in haystack

www.telegraph.co.uk

<modsnip - not an approved source>

non paywalled for people not subscribed to telegraph
Detective Inspector Steve Clay of Humberside police said Laura's body was found by two detectives searching the area who were acting on intelligence.

Murdered Laura 'was strangled'

Missing 18-year-old Laura Torn, whose body was found in a field following her disappearance, was strangled to death, police said. A 31-year-old man is being quizzed over her murder

www.dailymail.co.uk