Found Deceased UK - Nicola Bulley Last Seen Walking Dog Near River - St Michaels on Wyre (Lancashire) #12

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Going back to the Roger Jones case from 1978, IMO it's important to note that RJ fell into a small brook five miles upstream of the River Wyre, and we have no idea how long it took for his body to reach the river. What if he was trapped in the brook for seven weeks and only in the main river for a few days?

RJ's case doesn't prove how long it would take for a body to travel from the point where NB went missing, because we simply don't know how long each individual part of his journey took. What his case does prove is that a body can travel a long way on that stretch of river if the conditions are right.
That’s true, it’s also important to note the tributary was in flood and he was described as being “washed away”.

I don’t think it’s extraordinary to get from where he fell to the Shard flats in 2 months, particularly in flood conditions.
 
We all wish dogs would talk , but they already do , in their own way .
The little evidence we have on Willow from that morning , is not exactly of little significance .
Apart for being "bone dry" , she was "found in agitated state" moving between the bench and the gate .
Not between the bench and the river .
We have no reports , by the police or anybody else that Willow ever signalled , smelled , searched , looked near the river.
The argument that Willow could have been running around and at a distance from Nicola , is very legit.
In my view , instead , it is more probable that after being seen at 0910 in upper field , they returned to the bench area .
Willow is then subsequently found near the gate because that's the last place she saw Nicola , and by the bench because that is where Nicola's phone is and her lead and harness are.

Let's try and focus on what the dog did , rather than what it would or wouldn't do , IMO.

Also , yes , dogs very much live in the moment , that is very true .
But they also associate traumatic memory with places . We have PA's telling us that he brought Willow back , the description of her behaviour is consistent with non-aggressive/traumatic removal of Nicola from the scene .
There is no traumatic memory which prevents the dog from "living in the moment" when taken back to the scene .
So it kind of follows that the "agitated state" she was found in , on the day , can be simply attributed to the confusion of not being able to see or find a member of her pack.

This is just from my experience with dogs and trying to interpret their language .
Which is much more direct and quick in its non-rationalised structure.
 
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I've always thought the dog bone dry comment to be a bit off... (sorry to bring the dog being dry debacle up again ) but the dog had supposedly walked 2 fields along a muddy river side on a dewy january morning...I have dogs they are never bone dry in those conditions. Granted soak wet through is a different scenario implying the dog would have been immersed in water but to say "bone dry" was an odd choice of words imo. Perhaps this was just what the police wanted us to know but I'm sure I would have questioned this statement further if I was on the case
That witness's use of the phrase 'bone dry' has had an enormous influence on many people's perception of what happened to NB. It's an awful lot to hang on a few words from one individual. I suppose it just highlights how little evidence there is in this case that a simple phrase from a solitary witness can wield so much power.
 
Those are PCSOs in that image. Can't imagine Lancashire Police would send PCSOs (limited powers) if they really thought there was anything to find. It appears from the article there are some officers there, but IMO this is just box ticking due to criticism rather than anything serious or intelligence based.
eagle eyed!

but now am wondering about the accounts of a search there on Sunday - it was on WS on Sun but can't remember the details now
 
Man charged with teenager's murder | UK news | The Guardian

The teenager (Laura Torn) was found after police had drained marshes around the rivers Trent and Humber.
One of her distinctive, platform-soled boots was discovered on the Trent riverbank near Owston last week, but nothing else. BBM

I am going to hazard a guess that PF was brought in for the water searches based on Laura’s boot being found next to the river but found no body. The body was subsequently found in a Hay Bale. JMOO
 
We all wish dogs would talk , but they already do , in their own way .
The little evidence we have on Willow from that morning , is not exactly of little significance .
Apart for being "bone dry" , she was "found in agitated state" moving between the bench and the gate .
Not between the bench and the river .
We have no reports , by the police or anybody else that Willow ever signalled , smelled , searched , looked near the river.
The argument that Willow could have been running around and at a distance from Nicola , is very legit.
In my view , instead , it is more probable that after being seen at 0910 in upper field , they returned to the bench area .
Willow is then subsequently found near the gate because that's the last place she saw Nicola , and by the bench because that is where Nicola's phone is and her lead and harness are.

Let's try and focus on what the dog did , rather than what it would or wouldn't do , IMO.

Also , yes , dogs very much live in the moment , that is very true .
But they also associate traumatic memory with places . We have PA's telling us that he brought Willow back , the description of her behaviour is consistent with non-aggressive/traumatic removal of Nicola from the scene .
There is no traumatic memory which prevents the dog from "living in the moment" when taken back to the scene .
So it kind of follows that the "agitated state" she was found in , on the day , can be simply attributed to the confusion of not being able to see or find a member of her pack.

This is just from my experience with dogs and trying to interpret their language .
Which is much more direct and quick in its non-rationalised structure.
Very good analysis of dog behaviour. Do you believe that this suggests that NB went off with someone known to both NB and the dog?
 
Several police and news statements said they searched all 'empty caravans' but as people pointed out, what about the occupied ones?

we should check that this caravan site is open all year round ( any all-year occupants)
I haven't checked but wondering if somebody else on WS already has the answer before doubling-up on work
 

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Yes, many people live in caravans all year round as they can't afford properly prices.
I believe that they are only permitted to live in mobile homes for 1 out of 12 months a year.
Im not sure if there is a particular month when this happens but if it was January then a mobile site would be quite empty apart from the owners-Did I just say that :)
 
The 1km search previously mentioned would only have been of public areas or private land they’d been given permission to search. Wouldn’t include private dwellings but they probably did door to door on the local area and hopefully following up on anyone not in this time.
 
Really interesting fire brigade video here of the dangers of swimming in a weir. Basically, when the water level is high, a person will travel over the weir and continue along the course of the river. If the water level is low, the person will keep being sucked back towards the weir.

Thus, *if* NB went into the water before the weir and was taken over it, if the water was high it looks like she would have carried on along the river...

 
So this leads me back to accidental fall/death and off in the river.


But also I’m very glad someone had mentioned the caravan park. That’s an easy entrance/exit to leave by with no cctv.

And again always worth mentioning.

People don’t see what they’re not looking for.
Fate sometimes falls favour on those who do wrong.
 
I believe that they are only permitted to live in mobile homes for 1 out of 12 months a year.
Im not sure if there is a particular month when this happens but if it was January then a mobile site would be quite empty apart from the owners-Did I just say that :)
A lot of caravan parks are open for 10 out of 12 months - and usually shut January to March - so technically they should be empty and devoid of people.
But who knows! It seems like people can come and go at a back gate and there is no working CCTV there!
 
What are your thought in that if she slipped, from photos it looks quite muddy, surely there would have been signs that a slip had taken place, misplaced mud for example. That bank is quite steep. I think there would have been visible signs IMO. Also, the river isn’t very fast moving - in the short space of time to when her phone was found, the first place you’d look is the river… wouldn’t there have been a cloudy appearance to the water in that area? The sediment on the bottom would have been very unsettled, given how shallow it actually is and the struggle that possibly would have ensued to escape the water, surely she would have reached the embankment and there would be signs of an attempt at climbing out - assuming of course she hadn’t hit her head or something of the sort and gone in unconscious, which would mean no struggle to affect sediment so aggressively.

Just wondering what everyone thinks on this.

Personally, I don't think she went in the water as I feel there are far more likely scenarios. Had there been other clues, of course I'd imagine she was in the water. The lack of skid marks, scuffs, hand marks, dropped or lost items that would come loose during a tumble - earrings, finger nails, hair, buttons, scarf, hat, ear-phones, tears to clothing that would leave bits of fabric behind - all speaks to me that she didn't go in. Plus no-one heard any sudden scream or yelp or calling out.

There isn't any evidence of hard rocks that she would have hit her head on to be knocked unconscious and there's no blood or body fluids have been declared found by LE.

Friends and family say NB was a strong swimmer, plus she was also fit and lightweight. Her jeans were fitted, look thin fabric, not loose, and the jackets either filled with feather down or polyester, those are not heavy materials when saturated as opposed to say thick wools and linens. Her hair was tied back in a pony tail. Her boots were only ankle length and rubber, they would have been lighter weight too, they'd take in water but not as much as bigger boots and they would slip off more easily than tied on shoes or bigger boots. Would those small wellies filling with water and the weight of her synthetic fabric coat which was closely fitted really drag her under? I don't think so IMO.

I imagine tumbling into freezing cold water would be terribly shocking and one would immediately lose breath and then start scrambling to get out, maybe screaming for help. People say the divers needed help to get out, well yes they did because they had heavy diving equipment and flippers on and anyway why would you leave someone to struggle their way out of the river than give them a hand. It doesn't mean the river is impossible to climb out of by default. NB's coat coming down to knee length, if zipped up and pulling downwardly with weight of water, would restrict leg movement for swimming and climbing.

As for the dog, a spaniel who loved water, I believe the dog would go in after her for various reasons. Either to follow, to 'help', or to play alongside if it's daft as a brush. Also if the dog was surprised by a strange kerfuffle of the owner and the owner seemed in distress, the dog would probably start pacing along whining and crying from the bank side.

I think it would take a long time of struggling to get out and maybe yelling for help before one would entirely lose breath and become weak to the point of losing life. JMO MOO
 
Does anyone local know where this building is. It looks like a water treatment centre>
 

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